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Asx200

ASX200 Basing - Are We Getting Ready for a Breakout?- ASX 200 has not recovered as fast as the US Market but enjoyed strong gains today +1.6%. - Technically we have retraced to the 32% Fib level from our 52w Highs. We want to see a breakout from this level and a push past the 50% level. - From a Health perspective Australia has flattened the Covid19 curve but some of the biggest contributors to the ASX 200 such as the banks have reported bad losses this week. Overall we are bullish on this market over the longer term and want to see this basing pattern play out.
OANDA:AU200AUD
by Tuhi_Capital
Gold/AUD - Pullback - Buying Opportunity? I usually get quite frustrated with the Wall Street idiom of "buy the dip" what amounts to the gross over simplification of an entire field of study to "buy when big line go down" is quite annoying. That being said... When i see Gold prices dropping in the current financial and economic climate, YES please! I'll buy that dip all day long As you can see from the chart below, we have a very nice weekly MACD cross, this has historically been quite a nice sign of a decent pullback in our future, usually to the 21 ema as a minimum. Furthermore, the weekly RSI is also showing signs of weakening momentum, with the typical pullback landing Gold within the $2,400-$2,500 range, as minimum. That being said, Aussie stocks are looking a little long in the tooth, with the all ordinaries hitting the resistance i outlines several weeks ago, and while there is still some room to move higher, and in fact we are in a near-term uptrend barring a close below the 5,200 mark, i am expecting the equity markets to continue to deteriorate over the coming weeks and months. Even as the Aussie economy does begin to 'reopen' and loosen certain restrictions, that will amount to very little, as Australia is still predominantly a resource based economy, reliant on exports of minerals and raw materials. The economy's struggles will be exacerbated with the damage to oil prices, and any real recovery will be out of the question until trade begins to resume. So the equity markets are suggesting HIGHER gold prices, and the gold charts are suggesting a possible pullback (confirmed with a weekly close below the 9ema). With the global economy still in tatters and as the world slowly begins to awaken to this fact, Gold looks very likely to catch a bid. Therefore, any dip within gold is one that i am more than happy to follow that oh so simple idiom of "buy the dip" -TradingEdge
OANDA:XAUAUDShort
by Profit_Link
MQG failing to break throughMQG seems to be struggling to break out of the bear momentum established over the whole market. The run from the low of $85 to the recent high of $102ish attempted to pierce the longer band of GMMAs, but has been rejected. This rejection occured just a little above the 0.382 fib retracement line. Note this is also the support found in December 2018 turning into resistance. Note also that OBV would appear to be downtrending with a LL formed to coincide with the test of the fib/GMMA/resistance point. This idea would become invalid if price can exceed the 0.382 fib level and find support, in so doing breaking into the long GMMA band
ASX:MQGShort
by ASilk
ASX 200 truncated fifth? Why the Australian stock market fails In my July 2019 analysis, I assumed ASX 200 was going through a Wave 3 and will go up to 8300 in a year. However, XJO failed epically, it did not even come close to the 1.618 projection at 8300, when the American stocks were strongly bullish. During the February and March 2020 corona virus panic, XJO dropped much more than Nasdaq Composite and some other American indexes. Comparing to American market, all those failures point to some underlying weakness in the Australian stock market and broad economy. Another alarming fact is that the February 2020 all time high is 7180, right below the 3.618 projection of the 1982 to 1987 Wave 1 at 7200. In Elliott's Wave theory, Wave 5 often has some fibonacci proportionate relation with Wave 1. The Australian market is hinting here, February 2020 is the top of a truncated, 'failed' wave 5, as it failed to go significantly higher than the November 2007 top of Wave 3. If we take inflation into account, 7180 in 2020 might be actually lower than 6850 in November 2007. Fundamentally, Australian stocks perform worse than their American counterparts because we have a crazy property bubble here, making many young and old Australians curb consuming and stock investing to save for mortgage deposits. My impression is that most immigrants or new Australians prefer to invest in real estate, not old fashioned shares. Australian immigration intake has been decreasing since 2017, corresponding neatly with the first wave of housing market crash. Unemployment caused by corona virus in 2020 make the rise in property prices since late 2019 look like a dead cat bounce, a Wave B. Unfortunately 2020 might be the start of a lost decade for Australia, featured with decreasing fertility, decreasing immigration, decreasing property and stock market, rising inflation, and collapsing Australian dollar. Indeed we are similar to the Japan of 1990, just awakening from decades of dreamlike growth, easy money and unrealistic confidence. In the short term, ASX 200 is likely to try to approach 6000, getting close to 10 and 200 week moving average as resistance. This short term recovery will probably not change the bleak big picture though. My bottom line is that Australian market will drop more when the American market drops, and rise less when the American market rises, so overall Australian shares are much more bearish.
ASX:XJO
by MarcusAu
2
XJO ASX200 Update - Bear Flag Pattern We have gone up 20%+ since 23 March, this is likely to be an oversold bounce or "dead cat bounce" in technical terms. Since 90% of Shops are still close, Corona Virus is still in the headlines around the world and death rates are not showing signs of slowing down. Therefore, it is very unlike that the bottom is in and we are exiting this bear market in the short term. By looking at the short term chart, we can see a BEAR FLAG pattern forming for ASX200. I am expecting lower levels and we drop toward the gap. (4700-4800)
ASX:XJOShort
by johninvest17
1