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ATH

Bitcoin's Market Cycles — Are We Nearing the Top?Bitcoin is approaching a critical moment and the signs are everywhere. After more than 900 days of steady bull market growth, BTC now flirts with all-time highs (ATH) while momentum stalls, liquidity thins, and emotions run hot. You might be asking: Are we nearing the cycle top? Is now the time to de-risk or double down? What comes next? This isn’t just a question of price. It’s about timing, structure, and psychology. In this analysis, we’ll break down Bitcoin’s historical cycles, the current macro structure, the hidden signals from Fibonacci time extensions, and how to think like a professional when the crowd is chasing FOMO. Let’s dive in. 📚 Educational Insight: Understanding Bitcoin Cycles Bitcoin doesn’t move in straight lines, it moves in cycles. Bull markets grow slowly, then explode. Bear markets fall fast, then grind sideways. These rhythms are driven by halving events, liquidity expansions, and most importantly: human emotion. Here’s what history tells us: Historical Bull Markets: 2009–2011: 540 days (+5,189,598%) 2011–2013: 743 days (+62,086%) 2015–2017: 852 days (+12,125%) 2018–2021: 1061 days (+2,108%) 2022–Present: 917 days so far (+623%) Bear Market Durations: 2011: 164 days (-93.73%) 2013–2015: 627 days (-86.96%) 2017–2018: 362 days (-84.22%) 2021–2022: 376 days (-77.57%) 💡 What does this tell us? Bull markets are growing longer, while bear markets have remained consistently brutal. The current cycle has already surpassed the average bull run length of 885 days (cycles #2–#4) and is quickly approaching the 957-day average of the two most recent cycles (#3 and #4). That makes this the second-longest bull market in Bitcoin’s history. ⏳ 1:1 Fibonacci Time Extension — The Hidden Timing Signal In time-based Fibonacci analysis, the 1.0 (1:1) extension means one simple thing: this cycle has now lasted the same amount of time as previous cycles — a perfect time symmetry. Here’s how I measured it: Average bull market length #2–#4(2011–2021): 885 days Average bull market length #3–#4(2015–2021): 957 days Today’s date: May 27, 2025 = Day 917 ✅ Result: We are well inside the time window where Bitcoin historically tops out. You don’t need to be a fortune teller to see that this is a zone of caution. Markets peak on euphoria, not logic and this timing confluence is a red flag worth watching. 🗓️ "Sell in May and Go Away" — Not Just a Meme One of the oldest market adages is showing its teeth again. Risk assets — including Bitcoin — tend to underperform in the summer months. Why? Lower liquidity Institutional rebalancing Exhaustion from prior run-ups Vacations and reduced trading volumes And here we are: Bitcoin is hovering near ATH It's been in an uptrend for 917 days We just entered the time-extension top zone Liquidity is thinning across the board You don’t need to panic. But you do need to think like a professional: secure profits, reduce exposure, and wait for structure. 😬 FOMO Is a Portfolio Killer This is where most traders make their worst decisions. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) isn’t just a meme — it’s the reason so many people buy tops and sell bottoms. Before entering any trade right now, ask yourself: Where were you at $20K? Did you have a plan? Or are you reacting to headlines? 📌 Clear mind > urgent clicks 📌 Patience > chasing green candles 📌 Strategy > emotion Let the herd FOMO in. You protect your capital. Will This Bear Market Be Different? Every past cycle saw BTC retrace between 77%–94%. That was then. But this time feels… different. Here’s why: Institutions are here — ETF flows, sovereign wealth funds, and major asset managers Regulation is clearer — and risk capital feels safer deploying in crypto Supply is tighter — much of BTC is now held off exchanges and in cold storage While a massive crash like -80% is less likely, that doesn’t mean a correction isn’t coming. Even a 30%–40% drop from here would wreak havoc on overleveraged traders. And that brings us to… 🚨 Altseason? Or Alt-bloodbath? Here’s the hard truth: If BTC corrects, altcoins will crash — not rally. Most altcoins have already seen strong rallies from their cycle lows. But if BTC drops 30%, many alts could tumble 50–80%. Altseason only happens when BTC cools off and ranges — not when it dumps. Don’t get caught holding the bag. Be tactical. Be disciplined. So Where’s the Next Big Level? You may be wondering: “If this is the top… where do we fall to?” Let’s just say there’s a very important Fibonacci confluence aligning with several other key indicators. I’ll reveal it in my next analysis, so stay tuned. 🧭 What Should You Do Right Now? (Not Financial Advice) ✅ Up big? — Take some profits ✅ On the sidelines? — Wait for real setups ✅ Emotional? — Unplug, reassess ✅ Are you new to Trading? — study, learn (how to day trade) and prepare for the next cycle The best trades come to the calm, not the impulsive. 💡 Final Words of Wisdom Bitcoin rewards discipline. It punishes emotion. Right now is not about catching the last 10% of upside — it’s about: Watching structure for potential trend change Measuring risk Avoiding overexposure Protecting what you’ve earned 📌 The edge isn’t in indicators. It’s in mindset. Stay prepared, stay sharp because in this market… 🔔 Remember: The market will always be there. Your capital won’t — unless you protect it. The next big opportunity doesn’t go to the loudest. It goes to the most ready. _________________________________ Thanks for reading and following along! 🙏 Now the big question remains: Is a bear market just lurking around the corner? What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments. I’d love to hear your perspective. _________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by SiDec
12
26/05/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $111,965.73 Last weeks low: $101,994.78 Midpoint: $106,980.26 New BTC ATHs! Well done to those who capitalized on the move and continue to believe in this Bitcoin. For the last two weekly outlooks I have talked about the pattern of consolidation for 1 week --> expansion the next. Last week We got our expansion week right on queue and this time around BTC made a new ATH hitting just shy of $112,000. Should the pattern continue this week will be a week of consolidation/chop, however this week is different now that we're at ATH levels. My gut says a pullback is coming after such an aggressive move up with almost no pullbacks at all. Should BTCs price drop below the Midpoint I think there will be a big struggle to continue this rally in the short term. Initially target would be weekly low and main HTF target would be $97,000 IMO. That would be a healthy pullback to continue the rally. For the bulls you don't want momentum to stop in the short term, flipping $110,450 and weekly high would put BTC back into price discovery, once any asset is in price discovery it's very difficult to tell where the sell pressure will come from and so shorting becomes very risky.
by ProR35
Daily BTC OverviewThe daily chart in its simplest form can be broken down into this range. Since President Trumps inauguration, BTC has declined from a range high of $108,000 back to the lows of $74,500 closing the FVG caused by the US election rally. After a double bottom Bitcoin mean reverted back to the range midpoint which to me is the most important area on the entire chart because it decides if the bull run can continue or if it dies. I like to keep a close eye on the 200 EMA on multiple timeframes but the 1D is important to gauge the momentum of the move. As the US election results came in a massive push away from this moving average causes the level to steepen in its climb showing strength. Since BTC spent quite some time in the top half of the range the 1D 200 EMA flattens out signaling a loss of momentum, once this level does become flat it no longer provides support. For a bullish cycle to be just that ideally the corrective moves do not spend too much time below this level before expanding above and beyond it once again starting the next leg of the move. A persistent move down below causes a rollover and the cycle looks to be over with a bear market beginning. Bullish scenario - The correction is over and BTC consistently posts HH's & HLs bringing the 1D 200 EMA up with price and continues the previous bullish trend. I would want to see the retest of the midpoint be successful and then move to reclaim the next local high before targeting range high. The bull market correction looks to be over and bullish continuation resumes. Bearish scenario - This move is nothing more than a LH, BTC wicks the supply above midpoint, swing fails back under and continues to make LH's & LL's back down to range low where the 1D 200EMA will have now rolled over providing more of a resistance level. The bear market looks to have begun. I am not here to make a call on where BTC is going next as I do not have that answer, but I do have to plan for each eventuality and that is what I have done here from a TA pint of view. Now it is entirely possible that Geo-political news or an exchange hack etc throws TA out of the window and I have to rethink the plan but in a strictly chart structure perspective this is how I see it. The indicator "TRADING ENVIRONMENT+V1.0" used in the Idea post is now publicly available for use, give it a try and leave your thoughts and suggestions on the post, thank you.
by ProR35
2
Bitcoin Breakout Under Threat or Bullish Retest?1D Chart • Price broke above ATH (~110K) on May 22 with a +1.87% gain, backed by strong volume (~413K vs 190K avg) — signaling legitimate breakout intent. • May 23 followed with a -3.93% bearish engulfing candle, closing back below ATH on elevated sell volume (~279K). • Despite the rejection, the breakout bar showed no upper wick exhaustion, so not a blow-off. • RSI = 63.26 — still bullish but curling down. • Price is testing the channel midline; Fib extensions (117.4K–118.2K) remain unmet. Conclusion: Initial breakout was technically valid and volume-confirmed, but price is now under threat. Loss of 103.9K would invalidate the structure and raise distribution risks. ⸻ 4H Chart • Price closed 4 times below mid-Bollinger Band — short-term momentum has weakened. • RSI bounced back above 50, avoiding breakdown territory. • Volume is tapering (weekend), and price is hovering just above the previous LPS zone. • Watching for resolution from a potential Backup (BU) retest. ⸻ Wyckoff View • Still within Phase E of re-accumulation — unless 103–105K breaks decisively. • Valid structure: Spring → LPS → SOS → BU(?) • A break below structure = possible UTAD scenario ⸻ Key Levels • Support: 105,863 / 103,986 / 100,678 • Resistance: 110,000 / 112,100 / 116,199 • Target Extension Zone: 117,449 – 118,237
Long
by BitcoinMillio18
PLTR Fails The BreakoutI've been a bag holder of NASDAQ:PLTR from $9. Don't give me too much credit; I bagheld down to $6. I still have the shares but as it makes an attempt to break the prior All Time High this week will close in failure = bearish. When price makes a shot to a new major high or especially new ATH its of utmost importance that it follow through. You need that reckless YOLO abandon of buyers willing to buy the new highs and give a solid closing price for the Week above what was the prior ATH. That failing to happen is the most bearish of signals. To that end; Puts... I consider them hedges on my shares taken out to August (for next earnings).
NASDAQ:PLTRShort
by norok
BTC hits ATH – But this hidden signal could ruin the rally!Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a steady and impressive uptrend over the past two months, with nearly seven consecutive weekly green candles forming on the chart. This sustained bullish momentum signals strong buying pressure and growing confidence among market participants. Such a consistent rally is rare and often indicates a broader shift in sentiment, suggesting that Bitcoin may be entering a new phase in its market cycle. Price discovery Recently, BTC broke through its previous all-time high (ATH) of 110K on the lower timeframes, a significant technical development. This breakout means BTC is now trading in price discovery territory, where there is no historical resistance to guide price action. While this opens the door for further gains, traders should remain cautious. Upcoming daily and weekly candle closes will be critical in determining whether this breakout is sustainable. For the move to be confirmed, Bitcoin needs to close multiple weekly candles above the previous ATH. If instead, the price falls back below the ATH on either this weekly close or the next, it could introduce downward pressure and potentially signal a failed breakout. As we navigate this pivotal moment, it's crucial not to get swept up in the euphoria. While the price action is undoubtedly bullish, certain technical indicators warrant close monitoring to avoid complacency. In particular, the weekly Stochastic RSI and the weekly RSI are now at levels that deserve attention. Stochastic RSI The weekly Stochastic RSI is entering overbought territory, even before this week’s candle has closed. This suggests strong bullish momentum is currently driving the market. However, history shows that when the Stochastic RSI enters the overbought zone, it often marks areas where it was wise to take partial profits. If the blue and orange lines on the Stochastic RSI begin to cross back below the 80 level, it could indicate a weakening of momentum and the possibility of a short-term correction. That scenario becomes more likely if Bitcoin fails to continue making higher highs in the weeks ahead. Relative Strenght Index (RSI) Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching a critical resistance trendline. In previous market highs, we’ve seen the RSI top out at 89, followed by a high of 80 despite new highs in BTC’s price, a classic case of bearish divergence. If Bitcoin fails to push significantly higher in the coming weeks and the RSI does not break above the 80 level, we could be looking at a potential triple bearish divergence. This would be a strong warning signal that momentum is waning, and it could lead to a broader correction. For this reason, it is crucial that Bitcoin continues to push upward with conviction. The RSI must break through its historical trendline and post a new high above 80 in order to invalidate the threat of bearish divergence. Should the market fail to do so and instead roll over, we may experience increased volatility and downside pressure as we move into the summer months. Conclusion In conclusion, while Bitcoin is exhibiting powerful bullish behavior and appears poised for further gains, the sustainability of this rally hinges on continued momentum and strong technical follow-through. Specifically, Bitcoin must maintain closes above its previous all-time high, avoid a bearish cross on the Stochastic RSI, and see the RSI break above its recent highs to neutralize the threat of bearish divergence. If these conditions are not met and momentum fades, the market may face a period of consolidation or correction in the near term. Staying vigilant and objectively monitoring these indicators will be essential for navigating what comes next. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
by Youriverse
27
BTC | Testing ATH — Breakout or Trap?Daily close just under ATH at 109,609 We had only 1H confirmation above ATH, with the first 4H close above ATH likely in 30 minutes. The breakout volume is well above average (Volume MA: 172.89k), but daily candle still below resistance. This could be: • A Sign of Strength (SOS) transitioning into Phase E markup, • Or a premature breakout without higher timeframe validation. ⸻ Breakout Validation Checklist: 1. 1H Close Above ATH (~110k) ✅ ▸ Initial signal confirmed, but not sufficient alone. 2. 4H Close Above ATH (Pending ~30 mins) ▸ Must close above 110k, with no strong upper wick. ▸ Confirms intermediate-term strength. 3. Daily Close ≥ 110k ▸ Still missing. Required for macro breakout confirmation. ▸ Watch for candle body, not just wick. 4. Throwback & Support Hold at 109.6–110k ▸ Ideally after 4H confirmation, a retest and bounce = textbook SOS → BU → Markup pattern. 5. Invalidation Risks: ▸ Daily close <109k with high volume ▸ RSI divergence on 4H ▸ Rejection from 114k–116k Fib cluster ▸ Large bearish engulfing below ATH ⸻ Wyckoff Context: We’re likely in Re-Accumulation Phase D, testing the breakout. No signs of UTAD or distribution — but low conviction breakouts at ATH are known trap zones. ⸻ What’s Next? If 4H + Daily confirm, momentum may push toward: • TP1: 114,449 (Fib 0.618) • TP2: 116,199 (Measured move) • TP3: 118,237 (Upper Fib extension) ⸻ Follow for real-time BTC setups based on structure, RSI, and volume — no hopium. Like & share if this helps clarify the levels you’re watching.
by BitcoinMillio18
Will BTC endure and continue to reach further highs?As we can see, the BTC price has broken the previous ATH and established a new one at $ 109,886, but here we have to see that we had a slight breakout and the price immediately returned below the previous peak. At this point, we should observe whether it will positively break out from the previous peak and whether it will stay above it so that it can gather energy for a strong move towards strong resistance at $ 130,000. However, if we see a correction, it may first go down to $ 101,500, then we can see support at $ 96,000, and then we may have a drop to around $ 87,000. When we look at the Stoch RSI indicator, we will see that despite the current increases, the indicator remains around the middle of the range, which could potentially give room for another upward move.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by cryptodailyuk
1
Bitcoin Retesting ATH with Measured Move Target at 116KBTCUSDT (1D): Bitcoin has broken out from a tightly formed bull flag / pennant within a rising channel. The breakout is confirmed by a daily close above 105,863, reclaiming mid-channel structure and pushing toward the ATH zone near 110K. Measured move target from the pattern sits at 116,199, which aligns closely with the upper boundary of the trend channel and 0.618 fib extension confluence zone suggesting that any breakout above ATH could run into profit-taking near that region. Key Levels: Pennant base: 93,327 Pennant top: 105,863 Breakout trigger: 103,663 TP1: ATH / Upper BB zone ~110,000 TP2: Measured move target / Channel top ~116,199 SL: Below 101,853 or 55 SMA (conservative exit if structure fails) 📈 Volume supports the move 📊 RSI strong at 72.57 but not yet overheated 📌 As long as price holds above 105K, structure remains bullish
Long
by BitcoinMillio18
2
19/05/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $105,46 Last weeks low: $100,751.75 Midpoint: $103,372.10 In my weekly outlook post from last week I mentioned how there was a clear pattern of consolidation with a tight range for a week with a week of expansion that followed, and that if the pattern were to continue we would see BTC consolidate around the weekly high. The theory was proven correct on this occasion with a tight range between weekly high and the 0.75 line, as theorized with only momentary dips below the 0.75 line. Now if the pattern were to continue this week would be expansion week, but for me this time it's slightly different as BTC approaches ATH there is a massive level of resistance just above this weeks weekly high. We've seen an initial early attempt to breakout above weekly high and that attempt has so far failed quite aggressively, which leads me to believe there will be volatility this week as both bulls and bears contest this very important area of the chart. For the bulls maintaining momentum and breaking into price discovery with acceptance above $109,000 would be incredibly, the headlines will read new ATH, FOMO kicks in and retail follows etc, we know the drill. For the bears the objective is to hold the line and reject weekly high ($106,000) at all costs and print a strong SFP and unfortunately this does seem viable with $97,000 being the target area IMO. RSI on the daily is around the overbought level, combined with key resistance level a pullback would make sense. For me this week I want to see how ETH and other major alts react to any pullback, do they get bought up with purpose? Is the structure strong to maintain this move or is this a HTF lower high? An interesting week coming up I'm sure. Good luck this week!
by ProR35
4
12/05/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $104,972.46 Last weeks low: $93,385.49 Midpoint: $99,178.97 Bitcoin climbs over 12% from weekly low to weekly high, an incredible achievement despite a mixed performance in Tradfi. A pattern we've seen since the $74,500 double bottom following Liberation day goes; A strong rally for a week, consolidation in a tight trading range for a week, then repeat. Should this pattern continue we should see consolidation between weekly high and $102,075 (0.75 line). CPI & PPI take place this week on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, inflation is still a big talking point but baring a crazy print I would be surprised if these events move BTC. In the last few hours at time of writing The US has reduced tariffs on China to 30% for 90 days, China has reduced tariffs on the US down to 10%. To me this signifies the worst of the trade war narrative is behind us. This week I will be tracking altcoins with strong fundamentals as BTC.D rolls over from its highest point since January '21, ETH has already had a strong breakout from the downtrend and with BTC at ATH levels with strong resistance this should be the time to see altcoin strength and play catch-up. Good luck this week!
by ProR35
2
PLTR – Flat Top Breakout + Earnings Gap ReversalNASDAQ:PLTR – Flat Top Breakout with Earnings Gap Reversal Palantir ( NASDAQ:PLTR ) is setting up for a potential explosive move, combining two of my favorite setups: 🔹 Flat Top Breakout (ATH Setup) Price is pressing against the $126 resistance, a clear flat top breakout level. A clean move above this triggers a breakout to new all-time highs (ATH). 🔹 Earnings Gap Down Reversal (Bullish Signal) Recently, PLTR gapped down on earnings — but bulls stepped in fast, pushing it back up. This is a classic gap down reversal setup, a strong signal of bullish momentum. We saw the same setup play out on NYSE:SPOT , which reversed after earnings and broke out to ATH. 🔹 My Trading Plan: 1️⃣ Anticipatory Entry: Looking to buy dips into the shaded cloud zone (dynamic support). 2️⃣ Breakout Confirmation: Add size on a clean breakout above $126. 3️⃣ Stop Loss: Tight stop below the cloud zone to protect capital. 🔹 Why I Love This Setup: Gap reversals signal aggressive buying even after bad news — a sign of a strong market. Flat top breakouts tend to have explosive follow-through, especially with earnings momentum.
NASDAQ:PLTRLong
by kunal00
Will Bitcoin Break This Resistance – Or Is It a Bull Trap?MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN is once again at a critical resistance level, and the crypto world is split. Some believe we’re gearing up for a new all-time high (ATH), while others argue the top is already in—and this could be a classic bull trap in disguise. The key lies in how price reacts to this zone. • A breakout above $109K would confirm a new ATH and likely spark another leg up. • But a strong rejection here might signal that the rally was a trap, echoing patterns we’ve seen in past cycles. My Take: We’re at a make-or-break moment. Confirmation from this level will decide the next big move. What’s your take—breakout or bull trap? Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳 Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
by PetrockTheAnalyst
2
BTC - From Bullish to Extreme Bullish...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 🏢 BTC Building Blocks: 📈 Bullish: BTC is currently trading within the second floor, between $92,000 and the previous all-time high (ATH) at $109,000. As BTC retests the $96,000 demand zone, we’ll be looking for trend-following long setups! 📈 Extreme Bullish: For the momentum to shift from Bullish to Extreme Bullish and enter the price discovery phase, a break above the previous ATH around $109,000 is needed. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
11
BTC | WHY Bitcoin is BULLISH | 2021 Fractal5 reasons why I say BTC is on it's way to a new ATH (All Time High) : ✅1️⃣ Support zone reclaimed BTC has successfully reclaimed the support zone ABOVE the neckline resistance, a topic that I've been discussing over the past two weeks. If you'll recall, I pointed out either 70k or 90k. We have our answer: ✅2️⃣ Trendlines Trendlines are BULLISH as BTC continues to make highger lows, a key indication of bullish sentiment even when a pullback is present: ✅3️⃣ Moving Averages BTC has reclaimed ALL moving averages in the daily, a bullish indication: ✅4️⃣ Trend Based Indicators A bullish flash in the weekly is a strong sign: ✅5️⃣ Fractal It's possible that BTC plays out similarly to the previous ATH fractal from 2021: ________________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Long
by Crypto-Check-
BTC | Bitcoin CURRENT CANDLE | NEW ATH or 70kThe previous weekly candle seemed unable to make a higher high after retesting the support at 76K. However, today's bullish impulse has suddenly shocked right through two resistance zones, with the price now trading just above 90k. If we can successfully CLOSE the weekly candle above 91K, it's likely that BTC is in for a new ATH which would mean ETH will also reach a new ATH, and then altseason will commence 🥳 Watch the following and make sure you are prepared for ALTSEAON: ___________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT
by Crypto-Check-
2