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Bitcoin Update: The Last Level Before...Over the weekend Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD topped out at a level which has multiple confluences. In this post I will break them down one by one and talk about what happens next... Perhaps the most common level noted by commentators is the Trend Line/Expanding Wedge/Inverted Triangle. I personally do not put much faith in these lines or patterns. The reason I do not is because they are often arbitrary. They can be drawn from any of the different highs and lows to support a person's narrative. As a trader I want clearly defined and objective levels. That being said... everyone draws this line and so it can become a self fulfilling prophesy. The additional levels give it more validity: The elephant on the chart holding down price is (and has for a long time been) the prior All Time High from 2021. This important level has been haunting Bitcoin's much hoped for RIP for years and it continues to do so. Price has hit it again this weekend and stalled. Lastly, the more nuanced but important level is the final Volume Profile zone. Again, price hit and stalled at it this weekend. There are no more true significant levels of prior price and volume between this level and the All Time High. So what happens now? It is quite Boolean by my experience... a Yes/No with high probability. If THIS level (being discussed in this article) is broken then there is a very high probability that price will rocket from 69k to 74k as there are no more levels of resistance within that small range and the momentum should carry it up to the next level with certainty. Then, at the All Time High, price will certainly respond with another hold or a break. There is very good bullish trading of this small range. After the All Time High there will need to be a solid, confirmed breakout. To me this means a Weekly closing candle well above it. At that point... sky is the limit for Bitcoin. Otherwise, price holds here and the long and expanding consolidation continues as well as falls back to the ETF launch level of 43k. This is what I am betting on. Money where my mouth is: I am talking my book. I still remain long term short bitcoin using AMEX:BITI (the inverse ETF). I have been watching these developments closely to determine if my position is still valid. It has been on the cusp of being invalid but still remains my thesis. Sunday night I entered additional futures contracts short at the level. Trade wisely!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
46
21/10/24 Weekly outlook (day late)Last weeks high: $69,001.51 Last weeks low: $62,475.70 Midpoint: $65,738.60 Bit of a different weekly outlook this week as I couldn't post yesterday. So with the benefit of hindsight it looks like we have a swing fail pattern in the making after taking the liquidity from the $69,000 ('21 ATH) level. I would say judging by the chart I would want the downside to be capped at the Midpoint, continuing the trend pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The '21 ATH has been the biggest hurdle for BTC over the last 7 months with repetitive rejections, if the lows can keep creeping up then eventually we should get a spring above and that should be the move for an ATH run which should happen soon after if all goes well. Naturally we have ever increasing outside interference with the US election just around the corner, we know this is likely to cause volatility so be careful of that. Prediction markets like Polymarket have Trump as favourite, he is the pro bitcoin candidate so it should be a positive for the space if he were to be elected but you never quite know what will happen until it's confirmed. This week I want to see BTC continuing to make higher lows and higher highs. Altcoins have cooled off a little too after the initial BTC burst up from $60,000 so I'm looking for opportunities there too.
by ProR35
Gold Goes ATH Again, How to Work Pullbacks in Overbought MarketsGold Talking Points The massive move in gold has continued to yet another fresh ATH this morning, even with the US Dollar continue its own bullish jump. Trying to chase an overbought market like gold can feel like trying to jump on a rocket that’s already left the Earth, but that doesn’t mean that traders have the singular choice of fading it or avoiding it. There’s the potential for pullbacks such as I’ve been following in these articles over the past few weeks. Gold continues its massive 2024 outing with yet another fresh all-time-high today. This might sound like Groundhog Day, but the yellow metal just continues to impress even with weekly and monthly charts in overbought territory. As I asked a few weeks ago, does that even matter? Well, by the looks of price it does not, at least not at this point. As for explanations behind the move it’s been the Fed and other global central banks pushing towards rate cuts this year that’s propelled the breakout. And even in light of strong US data that, normally, would cause the FOMC to talk up rate hike potential, a hawkish Fed seems nowhere near, and markets are still leaning heavily on the expectation for the bank to cut through next year. Making matters more interesting is the USD backdrop with which the recent trend has run. The USD was weak in Q3 and gold broke out in mid-August and continued to run. The USD has posed a stark turn-around so far in Q4 and still, gold has run higher. At this point there’s no evidence to suggest that the run is finished. But that still doesn’t mean that chasing and hoping is a smart way to work with the move. There’s essentially two ways of working with the long side of an overbought market. One can use breakout strategies, which can be a challenge in and of itself. This opens the possibility of buying highs or selling lows, which can be painful ordeals. It’s not an impossible way to move forward, but traders need to have rigid risk management protocol to institute these types of strategies. Or – traders can wait and try to be patient, using pullbacks on shorter time frames. This still doesn’t guarantee success but at the least, risk can be managed in a more efficient manner by using prevailing price structure and if-then statements. While the move in gold has continued to hasten, there have been pullback setups. There was a setup leading into CPI last week, and another shorter-term after the release of the data point but before the breakout was able to extend. And then this week, there was a test below 2650, buyers holding the line there with a shorter-term higher-low opened the door for another extension of the move. Yesterday saw bulls push all the way up to the prior ATH at 2685, again, leading to a shallow pullback to the first support listed in the article at 2670. And that has since run into yet another fresh higher-high. Gold Fresh Highs – What’s Next? Human psychology has a funny role in markets as it often seems like the crowd gets most bullish at highs or near resistance and most pessimistic at tests of support. But there’s also the inter-play with psychological levels, as the price of 2600.01 can feel much more expensive than just two cents above 2599.99. We saw that play out at the FOMC rate cut last month. Gold tested above 2600 after news of the cut made its way through markets, but that was brief and short-lived as a fast pullback soon developed. The pullback from that tested below a minor psychological level at 2550, with bulls soon returning to push price back above 2600. At this point, we’ve seen continued reticence inside of 2700 so it seems as though bulls are shying away from a test from that price so far. But, if we do see that trade, that could be an open door for buyers to take profits, which can open the door for the next pullback. In that scenario, the prior ATH at 2685 becomes a point of interest for higher-lows. If that doesn’t hold and profit taking sets in a bit more, 2675 or 2667 become of interest. And technically, we could even see a pullback drive back down to 2650 while keeping the door open for higher-highs and lows on the daily chart. --- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist
WHSELFINVEST:GOLDLong
by WHSelfInvest
BTC DAILY BREAKING OUT??After 7.5 months of what what amounts to a HTF bullflag pattern, seemingly endless chop, bitcoin looks like it's finally breaking out above and continuing the Bullrun. This post doesn't need to be overly complicated, there are a few key factors on what is happening: - Bullish continuation, a bull flag pattern is just that, after a strong rally the corrective structure looks exactly like how the chart looks before continuing the next stage of the rally. Bitcoin has hit the red zone 9 times before the current breakout move, now that the daily structure has shown repetitive higher highs and higher lows for the first time it's signalled that Bitcoin is ready to continue the move higher. - US elections, every election year since 1928 traditional markets experience a rally, this year is no exception with the $S&P500, SKILLING:US100 & TVC:DJI all at ALL TIME HIGHS. As much as we crypto traders want crypto to be separate from Tradfi, reality is these markets matter and effect Bitcoin directly. '21 ATH has been major resistance all year for bitcoin, I could see that being the target for this breakout (should it be a successful breakout) before a retest of trend channel at $66,500 on the daily. All in all this is an exciting time in crypto, lots of volatility ahead come US election and beyond. Good luck everyone!
by ProR35
Is Amazon stock trapping retail traders? Is it too late?Historically, Amazon tends to experience a run-up leading into Prime Day, which could add positive momentum to the stock. There are some indications that history might, in fact, repeat itself. The yellow line represents the 6-month anchored VWAP, while the white line shows the July highs anchored VWAP. These VWAPs are crucial as they provide a strong indication of where average buying and selling have occurred over significant time frames, acting as dynamic support or resistance levels. I anticipate strong resistance near the August highs, as this is a level where increased supply could enter the market. To counter this, I am hoping for a tight consolidation or base formation in the $183.22 - $187.50 range, setting up for a powerful upside move. If the price can hold within this range, it could pave the way for a retest of the August high and potentially push further up towards $200 by the end of the year.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by MysticMads
XAUUSD 6/10/24Gold for this week: We have price action consolidating, followed by a pullback from the area marked last week. This trajectory aligns with the ongoing upward trend, and we expect it to continue, aiming for the previous all-time high. We have already tapped into a demand zone, and liquidity remains at the base of the last low, as well as within the internal lows of the higher time frame range. The principle here is that gold is overall bullish, based on strong fundamentals and a clear trend and structure. We expect this upward movement to continue, with our target set at the previous high. We are not anticipating a major pullback; however, since the market is currently driven by fundamentals, there is always a chance this could happen. If a pullback occurs, we can look for liquidity below the previous low as an opportunity to go higher. If it breaks through, I would expect a longer-term period of selling off, but overall, we anticipate further upward expansions. In summary, keep it simple—follow the clear direction, which is bullish.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PipSurfingSociety
Understanding ATH and ATL in Cryptocurrency TradingHello, Traders! The terms ATH (All-Time High) and ATL (All-Time Low) are crucial in crypto trading. They represent the highest and lowest prices ever reached by a particular asset. These metrics capture the extremes of an asset's value and serve as indicators of future market trends. In this article, we'll explore what ATH means in cryptocurrency, how ATH and ATL help indicate price movements, and why understanding these metrics is important for successful trading. What Does ATH Mean? ATH (All-Time High) is an asset's highest price. This value is significant for traders because it reflects the peak demand for a digital asset during its existence. When a cryptocurrency reaches its ATH, it usually attracts increased interest from investors and traders. This event typically suggests strength in the asset and may indicate an opportunity for continued investment due to strong demand and market confidence. However, reaching an ATH also presents risks. Some investors may view this as a prime time to take profits, which can lead to a price correction. ATH in Crypto Trading The ATH for an asset is a crucial benchmark for market participants. Reaching a new ATH can signal a continuation of an uptrend or indicate an overheated market. Moreover, traders often use ATH levels to set resistance points and assess the potential for further growth. After hitting an ATH, the price may continue to rise or retreat to lower levels, depending on market conditions and investor sentiment. The fear of missing out (FOMO) can drive traders to make quick decisions, especially when an asset approaches its ATH. Understanding how ATH impacts market sentiment and price movement is essential for effective cryptocurrency trading. Understanding All-Time Low (ATL) ATL (All-Time Low) refers to an asset's lowest price since its market debut. ATL represents an asset's minimum demand and price weakness for investors and traders throughout its history. Reaching an ATL can cause concern among holders due to the significant decline in value. However, some investors may see an ATL as a buying opportunity, believing that the price is at a historic low and could rise in the future. Considering the broader market context and the reasons behind the price drop is crucial before making investment decisions. An ATL might be caused by FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt), leading to a sharp sell-off. For large cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, an ATL might be considered an opportunity for buybacks at low levels. Impact of ATH and ATL on the Cryptocurrency Market When an asset hits an ATH, it can attract new investors and amplify market Fear and Greed, particularly during altcoin seasons when other cryptocurrencies also experience rapid growth. The Fear and Greed index can reach extremes, potentially leading to market overheating and subsequent corrections. Conversely, reaching an ATL can heighten investor fear and trigger panic selling. However, experienced traders may view ATL as a buying opportunity, especially if they anticipate a market recovery. Conclusions This article explored the significance of ATH and ATL in cryptocurrency trading and their roles in market analysis. ATH and ATL are essential benchmarks that help traders and investors navigate market trends.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by WhiteBIT
FET/USDT 15mNYSE:FET is one of the leading AI projects in the crypto space, earlier this year it saw a meteoric rise in price up to $3.5. Since then price has dropped around 80% to a local low of $0.70, now recently price has grown and broken the daily downtrend rising to a local high of $1.44 +105% from the lows creating a dilemma for traders... From previous price action we know that NYSE:FET is capable of huge moves, it's a fundamentally sound project with a strong narrative behind it. Finding a good entry to buy FET if sidelined or add to a position if already positioned can be tricky so these are my thoughts: - HTF FET has broken the daily downtrend is is looking to reverse. Altcoins have been at the mercy of Bitcoin so it requires BTC to behave too. After an -80% correction a lot of the downside risk has already played out. - LTF we have seen a strong recovery, if you has bought local lows at $0.70 you would have outperformed the entire drawdown of the last 6 months (assuming equal position size). So the feeling of FOMO can start to creep in at these levels. - The chart shows potential points of entry on the LTF, obviously we may continue to drawdown, it's always a possibility but we have seen signs of strength and therefore opportunities to go LONG. - Local range low @ $1.273 is the option with the best return out of the 3. Clearly strong support that was the base for the last local rally. - Current level is an interesting one because it incorporates a LTF diagonal resistance trendline that would be bullish if broken. This combined with a range support line (0.25) could be a good option for a LTF entry. - The final option is the 0.5/ Midpoint entry. This would mean flipping the 15m 200EMA bullish and reclaiming the midpoint making it the safest of the 3 entries but least rewarding, offering +6% return instead of 9% & 13% respectively. With all this in consideration, NYSE:FET is one of the better altcoin options in the markets current state. IMO we still don't have a clear market direction just yet and so being nimble with positions is a must, but it does feel like the worst is over and if that is the case then a position in FET could be positive for a portfolio.
by ProR35
1
$SMMT Stock Surges on Positive Lung Cancer Drug Trial ResultsShares of Summit Therapeutics (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMMT ) surged dramatically, soaring to an all-time high after the biotech firm reported promising results from its Phase 3 trial of ivonescimab, an experimental lung cancer treatment. The news sent the stock up by as much as 75.2% during intraday trading before settling at a 57.5% gain, marking a 54.77% increase by the close. These gains are driven by a powerful combination of strong clinical data and bullish market sentiment, positioning Summit as a rising star in the biotech space. Clinical Breakthrough: A Game-Changer for Lung Cancer Patients The Phase 3 trial, known as Harmoni-2, was conducted in China in collaboration with Summit's partner, Akeso. Ivonescimab was tested against Pembrolizumab (Keytruda), a standard-of-care treatment for patients with locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with PD-L1-positive tumors. PD-L1 is a protein that helps cancer cells evade the immune system, making it a key target in immunotherapy. The results were striking: ivonescimab achieved a median progression-free survival (PFS) time of 11.14 months compared to 5.82 months for Keytruda, nearly doubling the time before the disease progressed or led to death. The drug reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 49% compared to other treatments, demonstrating a statistically significant improvement in the trial’s primary endpoint. This positive data marks a critical validation for Summit's approach, particularly as it outperformed Keytruda across all subgroups, including both low and high PD-L1 expressions and across squamous and non-squamous forms of the disease. This broad efficacy profile could make ivonescimab a highly versatile and sought-after option in the oncology space. haba CEO Robert Duggan on a 'Historic Moment Summit Therapeutics CEO Robert Duggan hailed the trial results as a "historic moment" for ivonescimab, calling it the beginning of a shift in the landscape of lung cancer treatment. Duggan stated, “We believe this is the beginning of a landscape shift for treatment options for patients living with cancer.” Summit plans to initiate a multi-regional study of ivonescimab in early 2025, further expanding its global reach. Ivonescimab’s success in both the Harmoni-2 trial and previous Harmoni-A trials positions it as a potential blockbuster in the making. Earlier trials showed ivonescimab’s efficacy when combined with chemotherapy, even in challenging cases where other monoclonal antibodies had failed. Technical Analysis: Caution Amidst the Euphoria On the technical front, NASDAQ:SMMT 's rapid ascent has pushed the stock into overbought territory, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 81.44. Such a high RSI indicates that the stock is ripe for a potential pullback or consolidation as traders digest the news and early profit-takers emerge. The daily chart also shows a gap-up pattern, a phenomenon often filled in subsequent trading sessions as the market corrects its initial exuberance. While the upward momentum remains strong, traders and investors should be mindful of the possibility of a short-term correction, especially given the sharp run-up. This could offer a more attractive entry point for those looking to capitalize on Summit's long-term potential. The Road Ahead: Blockbuster Potential and Key Risks Summit’s ivonescimab could be on the path to becoming a key player in the cancer treatment market, potentially rivaling established therapies like Keytruda. The planned multi-regional trial in 2025 will be crucial in confirming ivonescimab’s efficacy and safety on a global scale. However, investors should also consider the inherent risks. Early-stage biotechs like Summit face significant hurdles, including regulatory scrutiny, competitive pressures, and the financial burden of advancing clinical trials. Any setbacks in the drug’s development, unexpected adverse events, or delays could impact the company’s stock performance. Conclusion: Summit Therapeutics ( NASDAQ:SMMT ) has captured the market’s attention with its impressive trial results for ivonescimab, setting the stage for what could be a transformative journey in lung cancer treatment. While technical indicators suggest caution in the short term, the long-term outlook for NASDAQ:SMMT remains compelling. With continued clinical success and a strategic approach to expansion, Summit is well-positioned to carve out a significant niche in the oncology market. Investors should keep a close watch on the company’s progress as it navigates the complexities of bringing a potentially groundbreaking cancer therapy to market. As Summit continues to build on this momentum, the stock could offer substantial upside for those willing to weather the inherent volatility of the biotech sector.
NASDAQ:SMMTLong
by DEXWireNews
This Bitcoin Dump Is Normal - But For How Long?In this analysis I want to take a look at the BTC_ATHDRAWDOWN indicator, which tells us how much percent BTC is trading under the current all-time high. Every time that BTC makes a new all-time high this indicator reaches a value of 1. As seen on the chart, BTC has seen a lot of big drops during bull-markets. Most of these drops have reached the yellow area (which reaches from -20% to -27%). This is "normal" and not something we have to worry about. What we have to worry about is when BTC goes from 1 to something below 0.27. Historically, this as signaled that either the cycle is over or that we're in for a prolonged period of bearish price action. Like I mentioned in my previous analyses, bulls have to start buying again in the very near future. If BTC continues bleeding like it does now there's a high probability of dropping even more.
BShort
by FieryTrading
2