ATR
LONDON: GBPUSD ABCD/EXT LIMIT ATRPrice has pumped to a very strong key level and neckline of higher timeframe double top. Now we may see the dump play out and have entered using our ABCD/EXT setup which calls for a SL using our ATR on our trading timeframe. Big potential for downside if price does fall
ASIA NJ 618 LIMIT ATRNJ and AJ seem to be the last pairs to want to join JPYs downfall, this could either mean we can expect a pullback on all JPY pairs or that its simply late to the party and still gathering volume for a bigger push up.. not sure, but decided to test this hypothesis by entering a limit buy order at the 618 which was just hit. SL used was our ATR formula for a minimum target of 1:2
ASIA: BAT HARMONIC - ATR SLMoney is trapped on either side of the range, we identify a pattern in which the probability of covering risk at 2R is likely and could be quick so it'll be tested out. The potential upside is also nice but regardless if price violates either zone, strategy should be to try to catch a retest for a trend move
Q for the community. Is the ATR valuable based against volume?I have to say that one of the most confusing indicators for me is the ATR indicator. it has the tolerance to move up or down which will tell you that you are gaining volatility or losing volatility. when you are gaining volatility above a certain amount on an asset is when it's a good time to trade. but there's nothing that tells us exactly when is that certain amount. also the gain above that unspecified amount changes between different assets and pairs that you trade.
another thing that discerns me from using the ATR Is that it's movement is related to price movement. well unfortunately we know that in the markets price can be manipulated which manipulates momentum. but the one thing it cannot be manipulated is volume.
so in today's video I'm asking a question to the community which is what happens for you guys as a benefit when the ATR is based against volume and calculated against the movement of volume.
also in today's video I show you guys how I have figured out a way for the ATR to tell you that you are just broken above the average volatility or just broken below the average volatility.
just because you are above average volatility doesn't mean you are still in a good trading area. just because you've broken above average volatility doesn't mean you can enter into a trade immediately. you also and always need extra confluences so with that being said I added this break of the average to the upside or downside into the bull bear power void and I created a method for the oscillator to spit out a simple pair of colors which you can change on your own that tell you you have just entered above average or below average volatility and as such you can start looking for your move or your exit.
so my question to the community is how relevant is volatility against volume in your indicators and trading strategies. also I'd like this to have a better layout or way of signifying you that you have broken above or below average volatility.
leave your ideas in the comments below.
ASIA UJ 618 LIMIT ATRLast call for UJ shorts going once, going twice...
Playbook Setup: 618 Sell Limit Active
Probability of Success: 50%
Last entry for Asia session and it lines up with our bias from prior playbook setups (although we try to treat each and every opportunity independent of other ones).
KEY POINTS
- Maximum risk exposure met(3R) for ASIA so we will set SL and TP orders and check back in during London.
- Be aware as a trader and risk manager that this is a game of probabilities and there is a very real probability that when we check back in during London, we may be down 3R if all trades go to shiiiiish... In this instance, the worst-case scenario is accepted (psychologically) so therefore we have entered the last position of the night and will be clocking out as soon as this idea is posted
Our job here is done, the rest is on the market. May the odds be ever in your favor
LONDON UJ ABCD/EXT LIMIT ATRComing in for a London session we see UJ has continued its bullish run and while its not the intention to continually find setups against the trend, we must trade what we see.
ABCD/EXT sell limit using our ATR for stop loss to capitalize on what could be a quick 1:2RR corrective wave
Probability of success 75%
LONDON UJ LONG 618 LIMIT ATRAfter dropping more than 100 pips in such a short time, USDJPY is destined to fall to its death right?.. well, not exactly..
HIGHER TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS SUGGEST THE BREAK OF A DOWNTREND WITH PRICE FALLING SHARPLY TO THE 618 RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF THE HUGE IMPULSE MOVE MADE LAST WEEK.
I KNOW, I KNOW.. BASED ON LAST SETUP, WE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE DONE FOR THE NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY FOR THE WEEK. HOWEVER, USDJPY HAS MADE AN OFFER WE JUST CANNOT REFUSE AND BECAUSE OF THAT, HAVE DECIDED TO ACT QUICKLY AND TAKE ONE OF OUR PLAYBOOK SETUPS USING OUR PROPRIETARY ATR FOR SL PLACEMENT ( in this case 30 PIPS).
Even if we are wrong, our prior gains allow us to spend 1R to be part of this potential opportunity to at least double our risk.
now we wait, and see probability in action, in real time...
PROBABILITY for success: 50%
Is IT stocks ready to lead the NIFTY?HCL TECH : CMP 1134
SUPPORT : 1010-1030
TGT : 1215/1305
IT index is going to support the NIFTY as most IT stocks is showing similar trends, Our pick is in this segment is HCLTech CMP 1134 has good support at 1010-1030 which is 50% retracement of recent high 1149 and about to breach the high and is heading towards 52wk high 1215 and if we consider Ellliotwave then it is continuation of wave 3 which will take it to 1305 which is our final TGT.
Strategy Coding E01: Adding a custom Trailing-StopIn my experience there are phases to creating a strategy. In this episode we will cover one of the most important steps: establishing an exit strategy. Exiting a position is crucial to risk management. If your entries are terrible but you have a good exit strategy, you might get by and not lose a lot of your capital. And vice-versa, if your entries are great, but your exit strategy is terrible, you my not make any profit.
Concepts we will cover in this episode:
Integrating an indicator value as a trailing stop.
Lowering the trailing stop sensitivity by using the Average True Range (ATR).
Customizing the ATR value.
Brief introduction to 'modules'.
Renko: ATR Shows Bullish, Traditional Suggests Bearish I have hammered out the aspect Ratios for the ATR Renko. I utilized a 100 bar ATR, for a stable average the bars move around. Being Renko boxes, a matching 100 frequency to the ATR amplitude was false; I needed twice the amps (length) to the frequency (width)...a 50 aspect (100•50). The results confounded my other methodology! The ATR has a bullish pattern, and the traditional Renko method is bearish? I need to observe, and maybe others will too. Also, the longer time frames function well but the ATR is out of the bounds (speculative) on the shorter 45 minute time frame.
Average True Rangehe Average True Range is a volatility indicator measuring how much the price of an asset has moved over a certain number of periods, in other words how volatile the asset is. It was created by J. Welles Wilder and was featured in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading System”. It was originally designed as a volatility indicator able to capture gaps in commodities, since a volatility formula based solely on the high-low range would miss that movement. However, the ATR can be used for stocks, indexes and currencies as well.
What traders use the ATR for is to determine their profit target and the optimal price level for placing protective stops by predicting how far the asset may move in the future. The Average True Range is most commonly calculated on a 14-period basis, but as with most other indicators, it can be fine-tuned according to each traders unique trading system.
The ATR is a directionless indicator, basically a type of moving average of the assets price movement over a certain period of time, which does not indicate the direction of the trend. You can see how the ATR is visualized on a chart on the screenshot below.
As you can see, We have plotted in every opened trade the value of the ATR at that moment. We've used the default 14-period basis, which means that the average price movement over the last 14 periods ( candles ) is 151 pips for the first trade, 137,8 for the second, and 196,2 for the last one. A trader can therefore expect the price to move within the range of 151 / 137 and 196 pips during these trades, thus giving a hint of where his/her profit target and protective stops should be.
As you can see. We have used 2 methods for using the ATR on these trades.
On the first trade, we have opened a position on the pullback of the previous Resistance, the SL and the TP have been calculated using the ATR multiply one time.
151 pips for the SL and 151 for the TP.
The second trade is based on a continuation trend strategy and also on this occasion the TP and SL have used the multiply ATR 1 time.
Last trade, Again Pullback on previous support with ATR multiply 2 times.
How is the ATR calculated?
The Average True Range is calculated by estimating the True Range for each of the included periods and then finding their average using a formula, which is shown below.
The True Range is defined as the greatest of the following:
– The difference between the current high and the current low
– The difference between the current high and the previous close in an absolute value
– The difference between the current low and the previous close in an absolute value
The first scenario is used when the current high is above the previous period's high and the recent low is below the preceding period's low (the previous candle is engulfed by the current one).
The second and third scenarios are used when a gap has occurred or the current period is engulfed by the previous period. Since Wilder was interested in measuring the distance between two points, and not in the direction of movement, here we use absolute values.
After we've calculated the True Range for each period we have decided to track back, we must now calculate the Average True Range by adding these values and calculating their average (as we've already said, the ATR is a moving average of the TR values).
As mentioned before, the most commonly used and set as default in most trading platforms' period settings is 14 periods. After we estimated the ATR for the initial 14 periods, we must then use the following algorithm to estimate future values:
Current ATR = / 14
How to trade the ATR
You've already learned that the Average True Range acts as a tool to measure the degree of interest or disinterest in a price movement. This means that inspiring moves are often accompanied by large TRs, especially at the beginning of a move, while weak moves are followed by narrow ranges. This allows us to use this indicator to gauge the enthusiasm behind every move, including breakouts.
For example, a price reversal, accompanied by an increase in the ATR value would suggest strong sentiment toward that move and reinforce the reversal, while a weak ATR would suggest proceeding with caution.
This is also true when the price breaks through support or resistance. If the breakout is supported by a rise in the ATR, it will be most likely a real move, but waning support from the indicator would suggest that the breakout might be false.
👑 THE UNCROWNED BEST INDICATORS PT.1That's the Part.1 of my collection of Uncrowned best indicators for trading.
I choose to call this post " uncrowned " because these indicators are firstly free resources and second well utilized and combined are much better than most of the paid indicators.
Often the best indicators are forgotten just because seem too basic or have no marketing behind them.
I can assure you, the top perform algorithm traders at least use for sure one of these 5 indicators. ( or more.. )
Making a great algorithm requires time to find the right combination of indicators and patience in backtesting.
If you don't know some of these indicators, I suggest you have a look, you can find them for free here in Tradingview.
N.1 AROON
The Aroon indicator is a technical indicator that is used to identify trend changes in the price of an asset, as well as the strength of that trend. In essence, the indicator measures the time between highs and the time between lows over a time period. The idea is that strong uptrends will regularly see new highs, and strong downtrends will regularly see new lows. The indicator signals when this is happening, and when it isn't.
The indicator consists of the "Aroon up" line, which measures the strength of the uptrend, and the "Aroon down" line, which measures the strength of the downtrend.
The Aroon indicator was developed by Tushar Chande in 1995.
Here is an Idea of how to use it, very basic. You can combine this indicator with your own favorite ones to create your best strategy.
Check the settings to find the right setup.
N.2 STOCH RSI
I personally love The Stochastic RSI. This indicator as the normal stochastic shows ranges between zero and 100 and is created by applying the Stochastic oscillator formula to a set of relative strength index (RSI) values rather than to standard price data. Using RSI values within the Stochastic formula gives traders an idea of whether the current RSI value is overbought or oversold.
The StochRSI oscillator was developed to take advantage of both momentum indicators in order to create a more sensitive indicator that is attuned to a specific security's historical performance rather than a generalized analysis of price change.
The StochRSI was developed by Tushar S. Chande and Stanley Kroll and detailed in their book "The New Technical Trader," first published in 1994. While technical indicators already existed to show overbought and oversold levels, the two developed StochRSI to improve sensitivity and generate a greater number of signals than traditional indicators could do.
The StochRSI deems something to be oversold when the value drops below 20, meaning the RSI value is trading at the lower end of its predefined range, and that the short-term direction of the underlying security may be nearing a low a possible move higher. Conversely, a reading above 80 suggests the RSI may be reaching extreme highs and could be used to signal a pullback in the underlying security.
Along with identifying overbought/oversold conditions, the StochRSI can be used to identify short-term trends by looking at it in the context of an oscillator with a centerline at 50. When the StochRSI is above 50, the security may be seen as trending higher, and vice versa when it's below 50.
The StochRSI should also be used in conjunction with other technical indicators or chart patterns to maximize effectiveness, especially given the high number of signals that it generates.
N.3 ATR Average True Range
I think the ATR is the base of any algorithm or at least every algorithm trader has at least one setup with this indicator to calculate the Stop loss or the Take profit or both together.
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The ATR may be used by market technicians to enter and exit trades and is a useful tool to add to a trading system. It was created to allow traders to more accurately measure the daily volatility of an asset by using simple calculations. The indicator does not indicate the price direction; rather it is used primarily to measure volatility caused by gaps and limit up or down moves. The ATR is fairly simple to calculate and only needs historical price data.
The ATR is commonly used as an exit method that can be applied no matter how the entry decision is made.
N.4 The Bullish and Bearish Engulfing
Well, this indicator, free by tradingview show exactly the presence of Bullish and Bearish reversal made from Engulfing pattern.
It can be a great confirmation indicator for your strategy if used together with other indicators inside your algorithm.
N.5 WAE - Waddah Attar Explosion
Last but not least, an incredible free indicator. Great for confirmation entry as well as Volume and trend direction.
Trading volume can help an investor identify the momentum of a currency pair and confirm a trend. If trading volume increases, prices generally move in the same direction and can provide a heads-up if volume diminishes. Once volume begins to diminish and the fuel for the trend starts to dry up, a reversal or ranging market may be on the horizon. This particular volume indicator has only three components to interpret, visually straightforward, easy to understand, and user-friendly.
I hope at least one of these Five uncrowned indicators will become part of your arsenal.
Please, support my work with likes and comments!
Is Oil dying? I can't know if Oil is dying because I cannot see into the future. So what's on the chart?
1- There is a death cross on a daily timeframe which is always a significant event.
2 - The red stepwise line (the ATR) is telling us that there is heavy bear pressure in this market.
3 - Twice price was rejected in 31 days.
4 - Now there is a big struggle at a neckline.
5 - Price pushed outside the ascending wedge pattern, and has now fallen through the base. Not a good sign for bulls.
Price can go up or down at the leading edge. True trend-followers would have held short once price is below the 1D ATR line. Nobody knows how far that may go.
This is a dangerously volatile market on the daily, with no good short entry positions at this time.
A better entry short would have been at price point 100 - and still under the switch in the ATR.
But wow - look at the volatility one would have had to withstand over months. This is for strategists - not gamblers.
Stay safe. Don't burn cash.
Circular Decomposition of Harmonic Pattern & 3:1 Long of CD LegThe long position in XRP is merely incidental. The emphasis is on using clean line work to discover areas where price is more likely to reverse.
In this example, which includes a bearish harmonic pattern , decreasing volatility is visible to the naked eye, even without the compression of the MA ribbon or the decreasing ATR.
Some unusual arrangement of pitchforks suggests that a lower time frame trend is breaking out and may retest diagonal support. If this occurs, a long entry presents itself, which would complete the CD Leg of the pattern and set up a Short at the D point.
Trading the CD Leg is NOT recommended because it often fails the test that comes at this level; the pattern is NOT considered confirmed until reaching point D. The incidental long shown here AWAITS the resolution of the test, as suggested by the S-Curve.
Fibonacci ratios are used not only to establish a potential action space for longer range forecasts but also to measure a profit target at point D, on the 1h chart. Although less obvious, but they are used also to estimate Trend Exhaustion (diagonals) and, hence, time.
In addition to more common elements of a Volume Spread Analysis, a series of overlapping VWAPs interacts with the action space implied by the Fibonacci ratios to reveal what might be described as the "grain" in the price history. Of especial importance is how certain VWAPs anchored to real-world events (as opposed to swing highs and lows, or opening bells) predict otherwise invisible volatility when either price or other VWAPs cross them.