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ATR

Strategy Coding E01: Adding a custom Trailing-StopIn my experience there are phases to creating a strategy. In this episode we will cover one of the most important steps: establishing an exit strategy. Exiting a position is crucial to risk management. If your entries are terrible but you have a good exit strategy, you might get by and not lose a lot of your capital. And vice-versa, if your entries are great, but your exit strategy is terrible, you my not make any profit. Concepts we will cover in this episode: Integrating an indicator value as a trailing stop. Lowering the trailing stop sensitivity by using the Average True Range (ATR). Customizing the ATR value. Brief introduction to 'modules'.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Electrified
13
Renko: ATR Shows Bullish, Traditional Suggests Bearish I have hammered out the aspect Ratios for the ATR Renko. I utilized a 100 bar ATR, for a stable average the bars move around. Being Renko boxes, a matching 100 frequency to the ATR amplitude was false; I needed twice the amps (length) to the frequency (width)...a 50 aspect (100•50). The results confounded my other methodology! The ATR has a bullish pattern, and the traditional Renko method is bearish? I need to observe, and maybe others will too. Also, the longer time frames function well but the ATR is out of the bounds (speculative) on the shorter 45 minute time frame.
SP:SPXLong
by privatepizza111
Average True Rangehe Average True Range is a volatility indicator measuring how much the price of an asset has moved over a certain number of periods, in other words how volatile the asset is. It was created by J. Welles Wilder and was featured in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading System”. It was originally designed as a volatility indicator able to capture gaps in commodities, since a volatility formula based solely on the high-low range would miss that movement. However, the ATR can be used for stocks, indexes and currencies as well. What traders use the ATR for is to determine their profit target and the optimal price level for placing protective stops by predicting how far the asset may move in the future. The Average True Range is most commonly calculated on a 14-period basis, but as with most other indicators, it can be fine-tuned according to each traders unique trading system. The ATR is a directionless indicator, basically a type of moving average of the assets price movement over a certain period of time, which does not indicate the direction of the trend. You can see how the ATR is visualized on a chart on the screenshot below. As you can see, We have plotted in every opened trade the value of the ATR at that moment. We've used the default 14-period basis, which means that the average price movement over the last 14 periods ( candles ) is 151 pips for the first trade, 137,8 for the second, and 196,2 for the last one. A trader can therefore expect the price to move within the range of 151 / 137 and 196 pips during these trades, thus giving a hint of where his/her profit target and protective stops should be. As you can see. We have used 2 methods for using the ATR on these trades. On the first trade, we have opened a position on the pullback of the previous Resistance, the SL and the TP have been calculated using the ATR multiply one time. 151 pips for the SL and 151 for the TP. The second trade is based on a continuation trend strategy and also on this occasion the TP and SL have used the multiply ATR 1 time. Last trade, Again Pullback on previous support with ATR multiply 2 times. How is the ATR calculated? The Average True Range is calculated by estimating the True Range for each of the included periods and then finding their average using a formula, which is shown below. The True Range is defined as the greatest of the following: – The difference between the current high and the current low – The difference between the current high and the previous close in an absolute value – The difference between the current low and the previous close in an absolute value The first scenario is used when the current high is above the previous period's high and the recent low is below the preceding period's low (the previous candle is engulfed by the current one). The second and third scenarios are used when a gap has occurred or the current period is engulfed by the previous period. Since Wilder was interested in measuring the distance between two points, and not in the direction of movement, here we use absolute values. After we've calculated the True Range for each period we have decided to track back, we must now calculate the Average True Range by adding these values and calculating their average (as we've already said, the ATR is a moving average of the TR values). As mentioned before, the most commonly used and set as default in most trading platforms' period settings is 14 periods. After we estimated the ATR for the initial 14 periods, we must then use the following algorithm to estimate future values: Current ATR = / 14 How to trade the ATR You've already learned that the Average True Range acts as a tool to measure the degree of interest or disinterest in a price movement. This means that inspiring moves are often accompanied by large TRs, especially at the beginning of a move, while weak moves are followed by narrow ranges. This allows us to use this indicator to gauge the enthusiasm behind every move, including breakouts. For example, a price reversal, accompanied by an increase in the ATR value would suggest strong sentiment toward that move and reinforce the reversal, while a weak ATR would suggest proceeding with caution. This is also true when the price breaks through support or resistance. If the breakout is supported by a rise in the ATR, it will be most likely a real move, but waning support from the indicator would suggest that the breakout might be false.
Education
by FOREXN1
7
👑 THE UNCROWNED BEST INDICATORS PT.1That's the Part.1 of my collection of Uncrowned best indicators for trading. I choose to call this post " uncrowned " because these indicators are firstly free resources and second well utilized and combined are much better than most of the paid indicators. Often the best indicators are forgotten just because seem too basic or have no marketing behind them. I can assure you, the top perform algorithm traders at least use for sure one of these 5 indicators. ( or more.. ) Making a great algorithm requires time to find the right combination of indicators and patience in backtesting. If you don't know some of these indicators, I suggest you have a look, you can find them for free here in Tradingview. N.1 AROON The Aroon indicator is a technical indicator that is used to identify trend changes in the price of an asset, as well as the strength of that trend. In essence, the indicator measures the time between highs and the time between lows over a time period. The idea is that strong uptrends will regularly see new highs, and strong downtrends will regularly see new lows. The indicator signals when this is happening, and when it isn't. The indicator consists of the "Aroon up" line, which measures the strength of the uptrend, and the "Aroon down" line, which measures the strength of the downtrend. The Aroon indicator was developed by Tushar Chande in 1995. Here is an Idea of how to use it, very basic. You can combine this indicator with your own favorite ones to create your best strategy. Check the settings to find the right setup. N.2 STOCH RSI I personally love The Stochastic RSI. This indicator as the normal stochastic shows ranges between zero and 100 and is created by applying the Stochastic oscillator formula to a set of relative strength index (RSI) values rather than to standard price data. Using RSI values within the Stochastic formula gives traders an idea of whether the current RSI value is overbought or oversold. The StochRSI oscillator was developed to take advantage of both momentum indicators in order to create a more sensitive indicator that is attuned to a specific security's historical performance rather than a generalized analysis of price change. The StochRSI was developed by Tushar S. Chande and Stanley Kroll and detailed in their book "The New Technical Trader," first published in 1994. While technical indicators already existed to show overbought and oversold levels, the two developed StochRSI to improve sensitivity and generate a greater number of signals than traditional indicators could do. The StochRSI deems something to be oversold when the value drops below 20, meaning the RSI value is trading at the lower end of its predefined range, and that the short-term direction of the underlying security may be nearing a low a possible move higher. Conversely, a reading above 80 suggests the RSI may be reaching extreme highs and could be used to signal a pullback in the underlying security. Along with identifying overbought/oversold conditions, the StochRSI can be used to identify short-term trends by looking at it in the context of an oscillator with a centerline at 50. When the StochRSI is above 50, the security may be seen as trending higher, and vice versa when it's below 50. The StochRSI should also be used in conjunction with other technical indicators or chart patterns to maximize effectiveness, especially given the high number of signals that it generates. N.3 ATR Average True Range I think the ATR is the base of any algorithm or at least every algorithm trader has at least one setup with this indicator to calculate the Stop loss or the Take profit or both together. The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period. The ATR may be used by market technicians to enter and exit trades and is a useful tool to add to a trading system. It was created to allow traders to more accurately measure the daily volatility of an asset by using simple calculations. The indicator does not indicate the price direction; rather it is used primarily to measure volatility caused by gaps and limit up or down moves. The ATR is fairly simple to calculate and only needs historical price data. The ATR is commonly used as an exit method that can be applied no matter how the entry decision is made. N.4 The Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Well, this indicator, free by tradingview show exactly the presence of Bullish and Bearish reversal made from Engulfing pattern. It can be a great confirmation indicator for your strategy if used together with other indicators inside your algorithm. N.5 WAE - Waddah Attar Explosion Last but not least, an incredible free indicator. Great for confirmation entry as well as Volume and trend direction. Trading volume can help an investor identify the momentum of a currency pair and confirm a trend. If trading volume increases, prices generally move in the same direction and can provide a heads-up if volume diminishes. Once volume begins to diminish and the fuel for the trend starts to dry up, a reversal or ranging market may be on the horizon. This particular volume indicator has only three components to interpret, visually straightforward, easy to understand, and user-friendly. I hope at least one of these Five uncrowned indicators will become part of your arsenal. Please, support my work with likes and comments!
Education
by FOREXN1
12
Is Oil dying? I can't know if Oil is dying because I cannot see into the future. So what's on the chart? 1- There is a death cross on a daily timeframe which is always a significant event. 2 - The red stepwise line (the ATR) is telling us that there is heavy bear pressure in this market. 3 - Twice price was rejected in 31 days. 4 - Now there is a big struggle at a neckline. 5 - Price pushed outside the ascending wedge pattern, and has now fallen through the base. Not a good sign for bulls. Price can go up or down at the leading edge. True trend-followers would have held short once price is below the 1D ATR line. Nobody knows how far that may go. This is a dangerously volatile market on the daily, with no good short entry positions at this time. A better entry short would have been at price point 100 - and still under the switch in the ATR. But wow - look at the volatility one would have had to withstand over months. This is for strategists - not gamblers. Stay safe. Don't burn cash.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by Captain_Walker
2
Circular Decomposition of Harmonic Pattern & 3:1 Long of CD LegThe long position in XRP is merely incidental. The emphasis is on using clean line work to discover areas where price is more likely to reverse. In this example, which includes a bearish harmonic pattern , decreasing volatility is visible to the naked eye, even without the compression of the MA ribbon or the decreasing ATR. Some unusual arrangement of pitchforks suggests that a lower time frame trend is breaking out and may retest diagonal support. If this occurs, a long entry presents itself, which would complete the CD Leg of the pattern and set up a Short at the D point. Trading the CD Leg is NOT recommended because it often fails the test that comes at this level; the pattern is NOT considered confirmed until reaching point D. The incidental long shown here AWAITS the resolution of the test, as suggested by the S-Curve. Fibonacci ratios are used not only to establish a potential action space for longer range forecasts but also to measure a profit target at point D, on the 1h chart. Although less obvious, but they are used also to estimate Trend Exhaustion (diagonals) and, hence, time. In addition to more common elements of a Volume Spread Analysis, a series of overlapping VWAPs interacts with the action space implied by the Fibonacci ratios to reveal what might be described as the "grain" in the price history. Of especial importance is how certain VWAPs anchored to real-world events (as opposed to swing highs and lows, or opening bells) predict otherwise invisible volatility when either price or other VWAPs cross them.
BINANCE:XRPUSDLong
by TheLeadingIndicator
2
BTC TradePlan (14/10/2022)TRADE OVERVIEW: This is a trading plan based on the symbol BTC/USDT in the Bybit exchange. Market analysis and setup provided by Shade from 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗛𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 . All trading zones are marked in the chart (with all confluences/key levels noted in each zone). Entries will not be placed automatically at the first line of the 'Trading Zone'. Only enter trades if enough confirmations are present in the chart. TH TERMINOLOGIES: 𝗩‌𝗦𝗥: 🇻‌🇪‌🇨‌🇹‌🇴‌🇷‌ 🇸‌🇺‌🇵‌🇵‌🇴‌🇷‌🇹‌ 🇦‌🇳‌🇩‌ 🇷‌🇪‌🇸‌🇮‌🇸‌🇹‌🇪‌🇳‌🇨‌🇪‌; 𝗘𝗠𝗔: 🇪‌🇽‌🇵‌🇴‌🇳‌🇪‌🇳‌🇸‌🇮‌🇦‌🇱‌ 🇲‌🇴‌🇻‌🇮‌🇳‌🇬‌ 🇦‌🇻‌🇪‌🇷‌🇦‌🇬‌🇪‌; 𝗩𝗪𝗔𝗣: 🇻‌🇴‌🇱‌🇺‌🇲‌🇪‌ 🇼‌🇪‌🇮‌🇬‌🇭‌🇹‌🇪‌🇩‌ 🇦‌🇻‌🇪‌🇷‌🇦‌🇬‌🇪‌ 🇵‌🇷‌🇮‌🇨‌🇪‌; 𝗩‌𝗭: 🇻‌🇪‌🇨‌🇹‌🇴‌🇷 🇿‌🇴‌🇳‌🇪; 𝗟𝗭: 🇱‌🇮‌🇶‌🇺‌🇮‌🇩‌🇮‌🇹‌🇾‌ 🇿‌🇴‌🇳‌🇪‌; 𝗙𝗜𝗕 𝗚𝗣: 🇫‌🇮‌🇧‌🇴‌🇳‌🇦‌🇨‌🇨‌🇮‌ 🇬‌🇴‌🇱‌🇩‌🇪‌🇳‌ 🇵‌🇴‌🇨‌🇰‌🇪‌🇹‌; 𝗙𝗜𝗕 𝗘𝗫: 🇫‌🇮‌🇧‌🇴‌🇳‌🇦‌🇨‌🇨‌🇮‌ 🇪‌🇽‌🇹‌🇪‌🇳‌🇸‌🇮‌🇴‌🇳‌; 𝗔𝗗𝗥: 🇦‌🇻‌🇪‌🇷‌🇦‌🇬‌🇪‌ 🇩‌🇦‌🇮‌🇱‌🇾‌ 🇷‌🇦‌🇳‌🇬‌🇪‌; 𝗔𝗪𝗥: 🇦‌🇻‌🇪‌🇷‌🇦‌🇬‌🇪‌ 🇼‌🇪‌🇪‌🇰‌🇱‌🇾‌ 🇷‌🇦‌🇳‌🇬‌🇪‌; 𝗣𝗦𝗬: 🇵‌🇸‌🇾‌🇨‌🇭‌🇴‌🇱‌🇴‌🇬‌🇮‌🇨‌🇦‌🇱‌; 𝗣𝗣: 🇵‌🇮‌🇻‌🇴‌🇹‌ 🇵‌🇴‌🇮‌🇳‌🇹‌; 𝗙𝗩‌𝗚: 🇫‌🇦‌🇮‌🇷‌ 🇻‌🇦‌🇱‌🇺‌🇪‌ 🇬‌🇦‌🇵‌; 𝗣𝗢𝗖: 🇵‌🇴‌🇮‌🇳‌🇹‌ 🇴‌🇫‌ 🇨‌🇴‌🇳‌🇹‌🇷‌🇴‌🇱‌; 𝗩𝗔𝗛: 🇻‌🇦‌🇱‌🇺‌🇪‌ 🇦‌🇷‌🇪‌🇦‌ 🇭‌🇮‌🇬‌🇭‌; 𝗩𝗔𝗟: 🇻‌🇦‌🇱‌🇺‌🇪‌ 🇦‌🇷‌🇪‌🇦‌ 🇱‌🇴‌🇼‌; LEGAL DISCLAIMER: Trade at your own responsibility, this is not financial advice.
by Luminous_Shade
US TECH: Would you like butter on that toast?When US Tech stocks were heading in a northbound trend, nobody had a problem in 'predicting' anything. Now we see the emergence of a death cross, and folk are struggling to believe what's happening. At each major bearish rebellion in the bear trend, there are shouts of hope. Even slight increases in unemployment are now a cause for hope. Because hopesters 'know' that poor employment is a sign that inflation is being beaten. And if inflation is being beaten then the FED will back off with QT and interest rate hikes. Well of course it doesn't quite work like that - there is a more complicated relationship between employment and inflation. So volatility in all markets drawing strength from US TECH has been up lately. Two key things to watch: 1 - Amber daily ATR. 2 - 200 EMA in relation to daily ATR. The markets have a lot of work to do before there is a clear reversal for the north. Most of them would have to break above a daily ATR and remain above for considerable time. No sign of that as yet.
WHSELFINVEST:USTECH100CFD
by Captain_Walker
2
Gold - Trading in RangeAfter FED Interest Rate Decision Last Night, Gold has reach lowest point of the year at 1653.87$ then rebound to the highest point of the week 1688.125 during Powell's speech time. The weekly range is now 1688.125 - 1653.87 = 34.25$ while the average volatility is about 53$ per week. The possibility of Gold price by end of this week can be follow 1. Trying to do Lower Low (lower than 1653) : Trend following and Sell Momentum - Considering weekly highest point 1688.125 - 53 = 1635$ shall be support zone - However, 1650 is also quite strong support zone now. Gold has not reach and test yet at this level. - Support condition from USD money flow. As DXY tends to reach new higher high 112 or above, gold has possibility to go down. 2. Trying to break resistant 1690 : Trend contrarian but toward strong buy momentum - Considering weekly Lowest point 1653.87 + 53 = 1706$ shall be resistance zone - Support condition from USD money flow. As DXY is doing the correction after higher high reach last night. While DXY drop, gold has high possibility to raise up. Since this week it is quite move in range (sideway and base creation), it can be considered the direction to both side. Nevertheless, considering primary trend and Macro economics news, gold will be in preferably in decline stage. Remember to Sell at High and buy at low level, you can use daily ATR or Weekly ATR to help you to understand where you are in the graph. Just sharing opinion, not trading advisory.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Riliza
2
XAUUSD - Awaiting for Lower Low CorrectionGold is ready to do a correction of lower low structure. Last week it had tested at 1654 on its lowest point of the year. This week, there will be the FED interest rate decision which will likely push USD value to do higher high, this makes negative correlation to gold. While the USD is raising up, gold will be down accordingly. Referring to Technical and statistics chart. You can see on my chart that all TF referring to Trend Diamond phase (Top right table) are all in down trend. MACD-V momentum is also recently in down-ward. We are waiting for US opening session to see the short term momentum of the market. Currently the strategy of trend following will bring more favourable. However, you need to wait the correction and confirmation from the chart. Gold tried to reach 1680 this morning in Asia session but fail and drop to 1665. Take a look on Daily ATR level it has been test at ATR -50% already and next support zone will be ATR 75% of Sep 19 (1658) Be careful if you open sell position. Try to place the position when the chart is at highest limitation of the day. Similar to buy position, you need to confirm it before place the order and keep in mind that it is the trend contrarian. The economics news this week may bring high volatility to gold. (Last week it was ranging about 80$ while the weekly ATR is about 55$) My sell position is from 1680 which is the level of Support flipped to Resistant zone. My TP is 1654 which is its last lowest point of the year. My Expectation is gold will make Lower low and can be end up of this week on Friday below 1650. See the statistics of monthly chart (bottom right table). In average it moved around 112$ , while in September is has moved only now (High - Low) around 80$ which means there is a possibility to go from 1735 - 112 = 1623$ by end of the month. Just sharing the point of view, not trading advisory.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Riliza
1
It's a dip, not a drop (says ATR) Price and range typically move in opposite directions (you will pay more for a less volatile asset). The bottom chart (Average True Range) looks like a mirror image of the top (Price). For a perfect example I'm appending the same chat but have scrolled back to the COVID drop. The ATR is in a larger downtrend that remains intact. ** It did not break out today. ** Until that changes, a price reversal remains a distinct possibility.. This is not a prediction. It's a reminder not to assume anything . NOTE **Chart shows the combined 3 index. They are weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see www.barchart.com When price and ATR jive:
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gb50k
46
ATRSL & ATRTPYou checked the daily pattern, today is a uptrend day. On 30m & 5m chart, you draw out support & resistance levels. Current price is at the middle. You already have a good pattern price that has recenty formed a possible swing low. You checked the ATR levels at 1.25. You set the ATRSL (ATR + $1 SL, then the ATRTP (1 ATR). (Here you forgot to put the 2nd level ATRTP...is it even necessary?) The price moves slowly.. Threatening to touch but did not and price move slowly towards ATRTP. After a time, price still did not touch ATRTP or ATRSL. But moving towards ATRTP. This means new buyers are entering the markets. You can find new patterns and ATR levels after a while. You can enter new positions now or increase/decrease your ATRTP levels now. At the ATRTP, price can either reverse or continue. It depends on the price action most recently after you have entered the position. If there are obvious targets of ATRTP and S&R, price will go on. It is better to set the ATRTP level as it is difficult to catch sudden jumps in price that is only few seconds...
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by amir_putra
Average True Range... and BollingersATR is a great indicator designed to show you the previous ranges of the previous candles depending on the value chosen, in this example I have done 6 periods, so you can see in this chart I have highlighted when we have peaks and troughs and one thing to do is compare the times of day this activity happens, you can see at certain times the atr climbs, it stalls at others or can fall, so ATR is showing us previous candles range, so if you are in a trade you want the range to be growing usually so that your trade can head to TP, but the important thing to takeaway is the fact that price is moving alot, this is because it is experiencing higher level of trading activity price is trending, where as a falling ATR reading means typically things are slowing down or accumulating, remember this doensnt give direction though as price can still move up or down despite a falling range per candle. However what it can do is tell you good times to look for trades, you can filter down by time the best time to take trades based on your strategy winning or losing in the peaks of troughs. ATR can also be used to determine stop losses of TP, by taking the the reading and using a 2xreading stop loss or TP, the more volatile the market the bigger your stop losses and tp will be, but more volatility generally correlates well with that idea, not only does it offer greater protection it also prevents missing out on good moves. So 2nd part is Bollinger bands we can see how it works, it basically again is telling you the range of things, so Id like you to compare the reading on ATR to the Bollingers, and you can see when ATR falls and the Bollingers are squeezing tight we have very little to trade, energy is low and range is small, In crypto I have heard this term called the crab which I have to say... I do find quite amusing. When ATR is rising the Bollingers expand creating a wide cloud, so on the last box, where price falls despite ATR falling... what is the difference this time? That is right, Bollingers are not squeezed together, which tells us the ATR reading is acting like it is small and stuck in a squeezing formation but in fact we are just in an expansion of the Bollinger moving slowly. What do I want you to take away from this? Just a deeper thought about which market conditions are best for your strategy and how to avoid times which will not really offer a good trade yet ect, and have a look for patterns in how you trade around these volatility indicators! Happy trading... More to come
Education
by ZenFlo
strategy over next 3 weeks should be profitable (volatility)INTRO 15 year old trader in England comment your ideas want to know what u think Over the next 3 weeks I believe if you wait for volatility peaks or volatility consolidation trading sideways basically and then take a short or long position depending on economic data coming over this week this will create vol in the markets which will help the strategy create the ideal market conditions to take a position. This week many economic events are happening meaning markets will correlate to these events meaning there will be a reason behind the madness meaning before the data is released equites could trade sideway and then react to the data released going long or short. This strategy should be profitable while taking other fundamental and technical factors into account IS THE STRATERGY GOING TO BE SUCCESFUL volatility should increase over this week because traders will want to trade the economic data coming in this week which will mean either two things equites will consolidate or there will be a burst of liquidity over this week which could be crushed if the fed decide to hike rates even further which will cause liquidity to deuterate even further causing markets to consolidate. this means extended high volatility periods are inevitable which could mean a hard week for traders as there is no liquidity for them to exit their positions. the strategy i have outlined could be affected by this but by taking the money flow index into account before taking a trade it will mean if there is a extended period of volatility liquidity should follow but we could be trading sideways for the next few week. as i have shown here their are so many possible outcomes this week because of the pure amount of variables but if I believe this strategy will mean all of these possible situations will be tradable meaning it could be profitable over the next 3 weeks MAIN ECONMIC EVENTS THAT WILL IMPACT THE STRAT Over the next week we have the producer price index data this measures the change in input price of goods and services, it measures the input costs. if the input costs rises it will mean a decrease in profit margin for business and rising costs for the customer and if it falls decreasing costs for the customer and increasing profit margins for the business. this will impact the strategy because if the data is better investor confidence will increase in the current health of the business which will mean and increase of buyers providing liquidly to the market and of course the opposite for if the data is worse than we expected. as well as the core retail sales date which basically measures the sales at the retail level in the us which will be impacted by current consumer spending with credit spending be very high at the moment the forecast is higher than the previous. but it should be the opposite because of recessionary fears which shows a slight bit of compliancy by the American consumer. if the forecast is positive as expected it should be bullish for equites especially retail stocks such as WMT. As well as large decisions coming from the fed with the interest rate decision coming in which could completely change the markets liquidity and direction in addition to the FOMC economic projections which will affect investor confidence for the good or bad we will see. all off these factors will affect the market deeply. which will be a perfect condition for the strategy to operate
NASDAQ:NVDA
by harrybergin
Is the SPY carving out a bottom? A Bollinger and MA study. In this video I discuss the importance of the 3rd standard deviation from the 50 SMA on the SPY, QQQ, and NDX. Details in video. TLDR: The SPY has found itself at extremes: The Stochastic, the ATR, and the 3rd standard deviation (lower Bollinger Band) on the weekly timeframe all show this. Pull up the weekly SPY, add the Bollinger Band - go to settings: change the period to 50 and the stnddv to 3, add ATR, add Stochastic, add the 50 SMA - these will paint a picture of the extremes Study the corrections vs the crashes, 00', 08', 18', 20', 22' - ask yourself: is this a correction or a crash? Consider the extremes and consider the history of corrections/crashes and how they uses these extremes. I have heard this argument A LOT last week: " The NASDAQ and IWM are already at -30%.....if the SPY is to go lower that means the NASDAQ may go to -45% and THIS is not possible." ---> I beg to differ, but recognize the importance of the Bollinger bounce. Look at the dot com bubble and the housing market crash, extremes can be used as a trend line for extended periods. Remember, nothing goes straight down or up, there is always trending days/periods and range days/periods. It is best to be able to quickly identify which type of day/period you are trading in in order to ultimately use your indicators correctly. Although I remain in the bear camp, I am absolutely open to the idea of a huge massive bounce here before the 200 SMA is tested. This bounce may come with a test of the 50 SMA in the 440's - where is goes from there I am not yet ready to speculate on. Since though I am remaining bearish, I do see a higher probability of the 200 SMA being tested before the real rally to the 50 begins. Either way, I do expect a rally in the near term, news and catalysts aside. Please watch the video for a more detailed look, and please chart this out yourself to draw your own conclusions.....as these are ONLY my opinions and NOT financial advise.
AMEX:SPY
by OccamsPhazer
1
Long Scalp SPX/SPY May 04 2022We can see based on the yearly volatility , that the current expected movement is around 1.75 - 2% +- Our top is going to be 4250 Our bot is going to be 4075 From the technical analysis point, Volume was broken on the top side above 4150 and 4175 (yesterday and today POC volume) so thats a strong momentum indication for long opportunity. At the same time we can see that on 15 min we got a long entry at 4155 I believe we can go towards 4200 minimum From fundamental point of view We have the PMI release and later on today we have FOMC -> interest rate decision. This last movement is the one that bring the highest amount of volatility possible. So I strongly recommend you to be out of the position before that happens, and once the market stabilize and takes a direction, re enter again.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by exlux
Btcusd 29 April 2022TOP Side = 41000 - 41500 according to Implied Volatility and ATR BOT Side = 38000 - 38500 according to Implied Volatility and ATR Expected movement at 28April 00h between 3.5 - 4.5% movement during the day In terms of fundamentals that can affect BTC In terms of technical analysis, our product ONE TOOL TO RULE For 15 min gave a short entry around 39500. At the same time we can see that main concentred volume area is around 39600, so there is not so much interest above that point Conclusion: After the "rally" from yesterday, I believe today we are going to have a correction(short) movement, and close around 39000(or below)
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by exlux
SP500 28 April 2022Close candle of 27 April = 4180 Expected opening price for today = 4210(at least based on ES movement and volume) TOP Side = 4280 - 4300 according to Implied Volatility and ATR BOT Side = 4120 - 4100 according to Implied Volatility and ATR Expected movement at 28April 00h between 1.5 - 2.5% movement during the day In terms of fundamentals that can affect SP500 At 14:30 european time(in 4h) we have the release of : US GDP US Jobless claims Both of the them are expected to lower than previous values -> Bearish Movements So final decision: Once SPX is going to get closer to 4280-4300 we can go into a short trade with SL around 4325-4330 ? and aim for 4250-4200 However all of this can changed based on whats going to happen within the first hour of SPX opening The current intraday mood for SPX is fully bearish because of yesterday. However there a high chance that within the first hour of opening we can get an Iron condor SIGNAL, with 4280/4125 aproximatively. Further update will come once the SPx opens
SP:SPX
by exlux