📌 @ridethepig AU02Y Market Commentary 18.12.2020 This position which arises after the telegraphed breakout from the 10Y and thus creates space for the front end. A typical manoeuvre for the AU and NZ yields: The analysis of the starting position shows us that the control now exists on the bid; because we know that it is the path of least resistance, so the...
· The prediction I made of Australian Yields needing rebalancing earlier in the year points to slightly above average AUD buying throughout 2021 finally came to fruition. · NZ and AU 10Y Yields bounced strongly first after the sweep of lows. The analysis of the starting position showed us that the control now exists on the bid; because we know that it is the...
Bond Yields are going higher and fast. Since January bond yields have increased across the board, rising quickly in the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Canada especially. Economies are rebounding and looking to show significant GDP growth during 2021 thanks to the rollout of the vaccine and reopening. This growth may (In the case of the US) be fuelled by...
As the gap rapidly grows between the Australian 10 Year Rates and Japanese 10 Year Rate, the AUDJP carry trade becomes even more desirable. This week as the pair soared above 83.50 - levels that it has not seen since late in 2018 and the currency pair is currently trading around 83.6. There are several fundamental factors driving this trend. Australia's economy...
NZ Ten Year Yields have rocketed up in recent days, reaching a high of 1.54% yesterday. This is a major climb from its yearly opening where it hovered around 1%. While Australian 10 Year Yields are also growing this year, a more dovish RBA has helped to cap yield gains. At its recent meeting, the RBA opted to increase its quantitative easing program by a further...
While CA, US, JP and AU yields have dropped in the general risk off mood across markets, NZ Yields have gone against the grain and in the "yield- off" between the AU and NZ 10 Year Yields, NZ has just edged past their pacific neighbour, with the 1% target in mind. The AUDUSD is still trading at around $1.07, however indications are that this may dive lower, as...
US yields tick upwards on expectations of improving economy next year, as vaccine rollouts progress and also a possible stimulus could happen before Christmas. Australian 10 Year Yields have just passed 1%, a new high since August 2020. If the positive news continues (holding breath for Jobs Report) than it is likely the US10Y will again test the 1% level in the...
NZ 10 Year yields have been soaring thanks to a more hawkish RBNZ which held rates at 0.25% when Australia lowered theirs to 0.10%. Talks of negative rates by Orr and other Bank members have dwindled. The impact is that NZ yields continue to climb and likely reach 1% before it's neighbours.
AU10YR dropped rapidly to 0.770 following the RBA's announcement but has not dropped to earlier lows in the month. The effect on the AUDUSD was a little softness, but as the market was fully expecting the move, there was nothing too drastic. Now that's out of the way, the next hurdle is the US election which influence which way the AUD heads over the next few weeks.
📌 Surrendering of the AUD bid The following play is an example of how easily a premature surrender of the ladder can lead to a correction. In light of that, for the news flow we have a two course dinner: 1️⃣ A dovish RBA on deck notably showing signs of distress with Australian 10Y Yield and opening the door for more QE. This is going to keep the downward...
The gridlock continues with CB's keeping Yields interlocked for as long as possible. An attack on the highs is inevitable if you ask me, sellers base is just not strong enough. 📌 Recession Strategy US will lead for the purpose of these flows, buyers may still make concessions and allow a retest of 0.82% lows but anything else looks very difficult. The...
I would have preferred it if Aussie Yields could have sought the break for the close last week, the decision to hold up here, rather than forcing the pass is notable that Yield curve control is really coming through. Which is an appendage to the following position in AUD: Those aiming for this macro swing position are effectively trading the artificial Fed...
Australian 10-Year yields seems to be tracing down intermediate wave 3. If this scenario holds yields could reach lower levels than 0.28. The critical levels are at the low of minor wave B when yields crosses down the odds are to this main scenario. If yields cross up 1.4, the alternative scenario where primary wave 5 has finished should hold. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO...
Ending the week with instructive profit taking from bulls in exemplary fashion....Average hourly earnings disappointing but nothing to write home about. Highlights in the report going to manufacturing jobs getting crushed via protectionism and those maintaining longs now have a free hand to play the next short-term swing. I love it when USD goes for a walk....
A noteworthy breakout in Aus 10yr with the technical damage already done as bulls remain supportive at the lows. The 38.2% from the impulsive leg, although still yet to be tested will cap any further downside in the coming weeks. Here we are dealing with the capture of the pinned retrace. We have heaped up the size of our attack, but have to face up to the...
Australian 10yr Treasury Yield still in downtrend (as long as below green downtrend line). If yield breaks above red line (1.20%), trend reversal has occurred.
There are a few opportunities which we have discussed privately on AUD and why it is a good time to be getting long on AUD crosses (namely AUDCAD or AUDJPY). Here I am nervous over USD strength as we begin pricing in a Q3 hike there so with Gold moving down in an impulse move (see attached ideas for more colour on that topic) the short here seems reasonable....
China Q4 GDP Growth is expected to be at the slowest pace since 2009 at 6,4% YoY. This will probably also drag AUD down because of the high export to China. Meanwhile the Australian rate will be unchanged for quite a bit, where the Housing market index is also due to fall over the curs of 2019. Australian Housing market have been rallying for long time, Now the...