AU Index Rallies from Demand Area as Bullish Sentiment GrowsThe AU Index experienced a significant development yesterday as it reached a key demand area, showing a strong rejection today that indicates potential bullish momentum. This demand zone, identified through technical analysis, has historically served as a pivotal point for price action, suggesting an opportunity for a price turnaround. With the opening candle reflecting a robust rejection of lower levels, traders are increasingly optimistic about the possibility of a bullish trend emerging in the coming months.
From a technical standpoint, this demand area presents a solid foundation for potential upward movement. The absence of follow-through selling and the strength of the rejection signal that buyers are stepping in to support the price. When coupled with historical seasonality patterns, which indicate a likelihood of gains during this period, there is a compelling case for a bullish outlook on the AU Index. Historical trends suggest that this time frame has often led to price rallies, providing further confirmation for those considering long positions.
On the fundamental side, the insights from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report paint an interesting picture. While retail traders are predominantly bearish, indicating a cautious sentiment among the broader market participants, the smart money narrative tells a different story. Institutional investors appear to be either bullish or in the early stages of building long positions, which can be a telling signal for future price action. This divergence between retail bearishness and institutional buying often creates an environment ripe for a market reversal, particularly as the smart money tends to lead rather than follow market trends.
Given these dynamics, traders are now on the lookout for a long setup on the AU Index. Emphasizing risk management and entry strategies will be essential in this endeavor. With the price showing resilience at the demand area and fundamental signals suggesting a shift towards bullishness, there is a growing confidence that the AU Index may be poised for a sustained rally.
In conclusion, the confluence of technical indicators, seasonal patterns, and the contrasting sentiments present in the COT report presents an enticing opportunity in the AU Index. As traders position themselves for potential gains, the next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether this demand area will indeed act as a launchpad for a bullish trend in the months ahead. Investors will be closely monitoring price movements, looking for confirmation to validate their long strategies in what could be an exciting period for this index.
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AUSTRALIA 200
AU200 to continue in the downward move?ASX200 - 24h expiry
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart.
Momentum is flat, highlighting the lack of clear direction.
Further downside is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 8200 will confirm the bearish momentum.
We look to Sell at 8240 (stop at 8280)
Our profit targets will be 8140 and 8125
Resistance: 8240 / 8250 / 8275
Support: 8200 / 8140 / 8125
ASX to find buyers at the market price?AU200AUD - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 8375 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 8425.
We look to Buy at 8320 (stop at 8270)
Our profit targets will be 8440 and 8465
Resistance: 8375 / 8400 / 8425
Support: 8320 / 8300 / 8275
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Bullish AU200: Key Fundamentals & Probability StrategyThe AU200 (ASX 200) index is showing bullish potential due to several key fundamentals. Australia's economy continues to demonstrate resilience, with a strong labor market and low unemployment rate of 3.6% supporting consumer spending. Additionally, the country's resource-rich economy benefits from robust global commodity prices, particularly in key exports like iron ore and coal. The Reserve Bank of Australia's supportive monetary policy, despite recent tightening to combat inflation, further underpins the positive outlook for the AU200.
I'm incorporating probability top-down analysis into my trading strategy for the AU200 to make more informed decisions and improve my chances of success. By using probability tools on my charts, I can assess the probability of price movements reaching specific levels, helping me identify high-probability trade setups.
Now let's get into the top-down process:
12M:
2W:
4H:
What are your thoughts on the AU200? Share your ideas and insights below!
Domino Effect -Australia's Exposure to a Sino-Taiwanese ConflictA potential armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait poses significant geopolitical risks with profound economic implications for Australia. As a key member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Australia’s strategic interests are deeply intertwined with regional stability. The potential impact of such a conflict on the Australian economy.
Economic Impact Assessment
A Sino-Taiwanese conflict would likely trigger severe economic disruptions for Australia. The nation's reliance on China as a primary trading partner, particularly in the mining and agricultural sectors, would exacerbate the negative impacts. Key sectors and their potential implications are outlined below:
Mining: As a dominant contributor to Australia's GDP and a significant component of the S&P/ASX 200, the mining sector would face substantial challenges. Disruptions to iron ore and coal exports to China would negatively impact major mining companies such as BHP Group and Rio Tinto, collectively representing approximately 5% of the index.
Agriculture: Given China's status as a key market for Australian agricultural products, the sector would experience significant revenue losses. This would affect companies involved in grain, meat, and dairy production, although their overall weight in the S&P/ASX 200 is relatively smaller.
Tourism: The tourism industry, still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, would face renewed challenges due to decreased international travel. Qantas Airways, a prominent component of the S&P/ASX 200, would be directly affected by declining passenger numbers.
Financial Services: The broader financial system would likely experience increased volatility, credit rating downgrades, and elevated insurance claims. Australia's major banks, including Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and ANZ, which collectively hold substantial weight in the S&P/ASX 200, would be exposed to these risks.
Implications for the S&P/ASX 200
The S&P/ASX 200, as a market-capitalization-weighted index, would undoubtedly reflect the economic challenges posed by a Sino-Taiwanese conflict. Given the significant weightings of mining and financial services in the index, a sharp decline is highly probable. The severity and duration of the market downturn would depend on the scale and duration of the conflict.
Historical Precedent
While direct comparisons are limited due to evolving economic structures and geopolitical contexts, historical data from World War II and the Korean War provide valuable insights. Both periods were characterized by significant market volatility, with sharp declines followed by varying recovery periods.
Conclusion
A Sino-Taiwanese conflict presents substantial economic risks for Australia, with the S&P/ASX 200 serving as a barometer of these challenges. The potential impact on the Australian economy and financial markets underscores the importance of robust risk management strategies and contingency planning.
ASX rally to stall at market price?ASX200 - 24h expiry
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the daily chart.
RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending.
We expect a reversal in this move.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 7770 will confirm the bearish momentum.
The measured move target is 7725.
We look to Sell at 7800 (stop at 7832)
Our profit targets will be 7720 and 7700
Resistance: 7775 / 7800 / 7825
Support: 7750 / 7735 / 7725
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
AU200AUD to continue in the upward move?ASX200 - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 7800 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 7850.
We look to Buy at 7750 (stop at 7710)
Our profit targets will be 7825 and 7850
Resistance: 7800 / 7825 / 7850
Support: 7750 / 7725 / 7700
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
AU200AUD short term RSI has turned positive.ASX200 - 24h expiry
The correction lower is assessed as being complete.
Short term RSI has turned positive.
Further upside is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 7825 will confirm the bullish momentum.
We look to Buy at 7775 (stop at 7735)
Our profit targets will be 7875 and 7895
Resistance: 7825 / 7850 / 7875
Support: 7800 / 7775 / 7750
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
AU200AUD to form a higher low?AU200AUD - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 7800 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 7850.
We look to Buy at 7760 (stop at 7720)
Our profit targets will be 7860 and 7885
Resistance: 7800 / 7835 / 7850
Support: 7775 / 7760 / 7750
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
ASX to continue in the upward move?AU200AUD - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher.
A lower correction is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 7800 will confirm the bullish momentum.
We look to Buy at 7750 (stop at 7718)
Our profit targets will be 7830 and 7850
Resistance: 7800 / 7825 / 7850
Support: 7775 / 7750 / 7725
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
ASX dips continue to attract buyers.AU200AUD - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Short term RSI is moving higher.
Further upside is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 7650 will confirm the bullish momentum.
We look to Buy at 7600 (stop at 7560)
Our profit targets will be 7700 and 7725
Resistance: 7650 / 7675 / 7700
Support: 7625 / 7600 / 7575
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
ASX200 to find sellers at market price?AU200AUD - 24h expiry
The correction higher is assessed as being complete.
We expect a reversal in this move.
Risk//Reward would be good to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 7725 will confirm the bearish momentum.
The measured move target is 7625.
We look to Sell at 7750 (stop at 7790)
Our profit targets will be 7650 and 7625
Resistance: 7750 / 7775 / 7800
Support: 7700 / 7675 / 7625
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
AU200 remains mixed and volatile.ASX200 - 24h expiry
Pivot resistance is at 7680.
We expect a reversal in this move.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 7625 will confirm the bearish momentum.
The measured move target is 7550.
We look to Sell at 7650 (stop at 7686)
Our profit targets will be 7560 and 7540
Resistance: 7650 / 7675 / 7700
Support: 7600 / 7565 / 7550
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
The swing low could be in for the ASX 200 (XJO)The ASX 200 suffered its worst day in 10-week on the final day of May, thanks to weak China PMIs and month-end flows. The first day of June posted a very minor (almost sheepish) gain, but with a positive lead from Wall Street and SPI futures higher by ~0.66% overnight, the ASX is expected to extend its rise from the lows.
The fact that the lows formed around a 61.8% Fibonacci ratio 7070 support level alongside a bullish RSI divergence could bode well for bulls over the near-term. From here the bias is bullish above last week's low and for a move to the 7200 area, within the channel. But as the channel appears to be corrective in nature then we also see the potential for it to head for (and break above) the 7300 highs.
But as we're a period of the year notorious for fickle price action and lower trading volumes, traders might be wise to remain nimble and seek smaller moves unless a large macro theme arrives worthy of expecting broad-range expansion for global markets.
AU200 to see a temporary move higher?ASX200 - 24h expiry
Previous support level of 7129 broken.
Short term bias has turned negative.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 7190 level.
We look to Sell at 7190 (stop at 7230)
Our profit targets will be 7090 and 7010
Resistance: 7215 / 7305 / 7435
Support: 7010 / 6825 / 6660
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
ASX to find sellers at current swing highs?ASX200 - 24h expiry
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 7280 level.
We look to Sell at 7275 (stop at 7315)
Our profit targets will be 7175 and 7150
Resistance: 7305 / 7435 / 7600
Support: 7215 / 7120 / 7010
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
AU200 Showing strong upside to 8,414 with a warningReverse C&H formed on the AU200.
We had a very weak break above the neckline showing the bulls are not as strong as they ought to be.
This comes with a Warning because if you zoom out you'll see an even larger Box formation (range traded area).
One can place a stop loss but I would put it below the entire C&H to stop the chop.
7>21>200
RSI>50
Target 8,414
SMC
SSl Order Block below the Box Formation and Rev Cup and Handle where SM comes in and sweeps Sell Side Liquidity from Long traders who get stopped and shorters who went short.