ASX Bounced Off Support, Potential For A Further Rise!ASX bounced nicely off our first support level at 5390 (61.8% fibonacci extension , horizontal swing low support) where a further rise might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 5861 (50% fibonacci retracement , Horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is also bounced off support where we might see a further rise in price.
AUSTRALIA 200
ASX Bounced Off Support, Potential For A Further Rise!ASX bounced nicely off our first support level at 5390 (61.8% fibonacci extension , horizontal swing low support) where a further rise might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 5861 (50% fibonacci retracement , Horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is also bounced off support where we might see a further rise in price.
ASX Approaching Support, Potential Bounce!ASX is approaching our first support at 5586 (horizontal overlap support, 61.8%, 100% Fibonacci extension , 50% Fibonacci retracement ) where a strong bounce might occur pushing price up to our major resistance at 5908 (horizontal swing high resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ).
Stochastic (89,5,3) is also approaching support and we might see a corresponding bounce in price should it bounce off this level.
Australia 200 Short IdeaNear 5922 I will open a Sell
I think the price will continue down move because long-term trend is broken and turned into a bearish month ago. Also, on the chart, we can see how the price bounced so many times from key level 5943 on Daily chart. It's the best signal that big players protect that level and near that level, we have a low and predictable risk.
Short near: 5922 goal:5778
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S&P 200 bigger picture: Up to 6800 before going down to 4500ASX 200 started a new five Elliott wave structure after the completion of correction in Februrary 2009. It has since completed four waves on a monthly scale and is now running upwards in its fifth wave which is likely to terminate around 6800 and go down to around 4500.
Why do I think so?
If we zoom in in the period from February 2016 when the fifth wave started, you would see that ASX 200 has already completed four waves on this weekly timescale (green waves) and is now completing the fifth wave which started in February 2018. Also see a chart copied below.
If we further zoom in the period since February 2018 by going to the daily scale (see below - pink waves), you would notice that ASX 200 has completed two waves and is now running in the third wave. The five waves on the daily scale are likely to be completed by 6800.
Further, 6800 is the top of the bullish channel started in 2008. Also, it is the value of the previous top before the financial crisis which is expected to offer significant resistance.
What would be the correction target?
If the correction is 61.8% then it could take ASX 200 down to 4500, but of course, it also depends on the level from which ASX 200 starts correction. If the correction is up to 78.6%, then ASX 200 will drop to 4000.
When is the correction likely to start and end?
It is difficult to say but I expect the correction to start in Nov-Dec 2018 and to complete by Jan-Feb 2020.
Is there light at the end of the tunnel?
Yes, this entire wave started in 2009 and completing in Feb 2020 would just be the first cyclic wave. After its completion, ASX 200 is expected to start the third bullish cyclic wave which could run for many years and could take ASX 200 up to around 10,000.
Weekly chart
Daily chart
Note: It is not a financial advice. Please trade at your own risk.
ASX is approaching resistance, potential drop! ASX is approaching our first major resistance at 5885.8 (horizontal pullback resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension). A strong drop might occur below this level, pushing price down to our major support at 5692.5 (horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (89,5,3) is also approaching our major resistance and is seeing a bearish divergence where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
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Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
AUS200 right on major resistance, prepare for a potential revers
AUS200 is now testing major resistance at 6072 (Fibonacci retracement, bearish harmonic formation, horizontal swing high resistance) and a strong drop could occur at this level to push price down to 6008 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support). We have to watch our for intermediate support at 6034 too (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).
Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 99% where a corresponding reaction could occur.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.