Bullish bounce?AUD/CAD is reacting off the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.9006
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.8976
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.9044
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
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AUD (Australian Dollar)
GBPAUD: Going for the highs!! Pay attention this morning!!If we look at the daily chart (chart below), we clearly see that the GBPAUD pair has a stable bullish (Bull) technical aspect, respecting its dynamic supports (blue zones) at all times.
--> To see the technical detail, we will analyze the chart above which is in H1 time frame.
Since February 13, when the overbought appeared in the oscillator and the MOMENTUM turned bearish (Bear), the price did not stop falling reaching the Fibonacci zone of 61.8% (1.97565). Once that key zone was reached, and respected, the price began to gain bullish strength (Bull) until today.
It is currently in a key zone, which if surpassed, will go directly to attack its previous highs in the 1.99450 area
--> What risks do we face?
High-impact news that will affect both the AUD (at 4:30) and the GBP (at 8:00)
Here are the high-impact news that will be released this morning and the time:
04:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement Report
04:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Statement Report
04:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision Forecast (4.1%) Previous (4.35%)
05:30 AUD RBA Press Conference Speech
08:00 GBP Change in Employment (Dec.)
08:00 GBP Change in Jobless Claims (Jan.)
08:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (Dec.)
10:30 GBP Speech by BoE Governor Andrew Cuomo Bailey
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If our investor profile is CONSERVATIVE, we will have to wait until 8:00 for all the news that affect both the AUD and the GBP to be published. But if our profile is AGGRESSIVE, we can use the following strategy:
ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions if the price exceeds 1.98900
POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 2.00550 zone (165 pips)
--> Stop Loss at 1.97600 (127 pips).
--> Ratio (1:3)
POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position.
--> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-127 pips) (coinciding with the 1.97600 of position 1).
--> We change the dynamic Stop Loss to ( -20 pips ) when the price reaches TP1 ( 2.00550 ).
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SET UP EXPLANATIONS
*** How do we know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, what we do is divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each.
*** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a certain distance. That certain distance is the dynamic Stop Loss.
-->Example: IF the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% on increases, therefore, the risk is increasingly lower until the position becomes profitable. In this way, very solid and stable price trends can be taken advantage of, maximizing profits.
AUDCAD: Bearish Cross kickstarting a decline.AUDCAD is practically neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.879, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 33.394) and got rejected on both the 1D MA100 and MA200 that formed a Bearish Cross. The Channel Down mimics the June 30th 2023 Cross that then pushed the price to the bottom of the Rectangle on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. Go short, TP = 0.86600.
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EURUAD I Potential pullback and more decline Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** EURAUD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
EURAUD Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for EURAUD is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.6457
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.6546
My Stop Loss - 1.6406
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBP/AUD: Potential Rebound from Support ChannelIn this analysis, the GBP/AUD pair is trading within an ascending channel that has been confirmed by multiple bounces off both resistance and support levels. The price is currently undergoing a downward correction after previously reaching the resistance area around 2.02. Based on the historical pattern within this channel, there is a possibility that the price will decline further toward the support area around 1.94 before rebounding back upward.
The price structure shows strong reactions each time the price touches the support channel (marked by green arrows) and the resistance channel (marked by red arrows). This indicates that the market still respects this uptrend structure. Therefore, the most probable scenario is to wait for the price to approach the support area before considering a buy position. The potential target for the next upward move is a return to the resistance channel around 2.02. However, if the price successfully breaks below the 1.94 support level with high volume, this bullish scenario may become invalid.
AUDJPY Daily BiasThis price has been on a bearish momentum for the past few weeks, until there was a market structure shift at around the 96.73. I anticipate that the momentum might be bullish.
To confirm this, today's candle might be significant. If we close lower than Friday's Daily Candle, the price might be drawn towards the Daily FVG zone at 95.7. If we close above, we might have our bullish entry targeting 98.8.
EUR/AUD "Euro vs Aussie" Forex Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱👤🐱🏍
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the EUR/AUD "Euro vs Aussie" Forex Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 1.66000 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯:
Primary Target - 1.62700 (or) Escape Before the Target
Secondary Target - 1.61000 (or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
EUR/AUD "Euro vs Aussie" Forex Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
🌞Market Overview
Current Price: 1.64624
30-Day High: 1.6734
30-Day Low: 1.5931
30-Day Average: 1.6231
🌞Fundamental Analysis
Economic Trends: The European economy is expected to grow, driven by a rebound in consumer spending and investment
Interest Rates: The European Central Bank is expected to maintain low interest rates, supporting the euro
🌞Macro Economics
Global Economic Trends: The ongoing global economic recovery is expected to drive up demand for commodities, including Australian exports
Inflation Rate: Global inflation is expected to rise to 3.8% in 2025, potentially increasing demand for commodities and supporting the Australian dollar
Interest Rates: Central banks are expected to maintain low interest rates in 2025, supporting currency markets
🌞COT Data
Non-Commercial Traders (Institutional):
Net Short Positions: 40%
Open Interest: 80,000 contracts
Commercial Traders (Companies):
Net Long Positions: 25%
Open Interest: 50,000 contracts
Non-Reportable Traders (Small Traders):
Net Short Positions: 35%
Open Interest: 30,000 contracts
COT Ratio: 1.8 (indicating a bearish trend)
🌞Sentimental Analysis
Institutional Sentiment: 55% bearish, 45% bullish
Retail Sentiment: 50% bearish, 50% bullish
Market Mood: The overall market mood is bearish, with a sentiment score of -20
🌞Positioning Analysis
Institutional Traders: Net short positions increased by 10% over the past week, indicating growing bearish sentiment
Retail Traders: Net short positions decreased by 5% over the past week, indicating decreasing bearish sentiment
Leverage: The average leverage used by traders has decreased to 2.2, indicating decreasing confidence in the market
🌞Overall Outlook
The overall outlook for EUR/AUD is bearish, driven by a combination of fundamental, technical, and sentimental factors. The expected growth in the Australian economy, low interest rates, and bearish market sentiment are all supporting the bearish trend. However, investors should remain cautious of potential upside risks, including changes in global economic trends and unexpected regulatory developments.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
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Massive week for Aussie and Kiwi markets The Reserve Bank of Australia’s first meeting of the year is days away with money markets pricing in an 86% chance of a 25bps cut and a 14% chance that rates unchanged.
However, Australia Finacial Review’s John Kehoe suggests market expectations of a 90% probability for a cut may be overstated, arguing the decision is closer to a 50/50 call.
If the RBA cuts rates on Tuesday, it could support the government's message that cost-of-living pressures are easing and could lead to an early election announcement. If rates remain unchanged, the prime minister may delay the election until mid-April or May, hoping for a cut at the RBA’s next meeting on April 1.
Meanwhile, the RBNZ is expected to cut rates this week, with markets pricing a 68% chance of a 50bps cut and a 32% chance of a 25bps reduction. A Reuters poll of 33 economists found 32 expecting a 50bps cut. However, ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley anticipates smaller 25bps cuts in April and May instead.
AUDNZD Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for AUDNZD is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1115
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.1077
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUD/JPY BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
AUD/JPY is trending down which is clear from the red colour of the previous weekly candle. However, the price has locally surged into the overbought territory. Which can be told from its proximity to the BB upper band. Which presents a beautiful trend following opportunity for a short trade from the resistance line above towards the demand level of 94.234.
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GBPAUD - Look for Reversal Short (SWING) 1:4!After a strong bullish move, which can be seen as a correction before continuing the HTF downtrend, we've observed a clear confirmation of a triple top on the LTF. This suggests a potential opportunity to ride the trend south.
Additionally, the price has been in accumulation for a few days, likely collecting orders within the marked supply zone.
Let’s see how the market plays out — hopefully, it triggers our targeted TP1 and TP2.
Disclaimer:
This is simply my personal technical analysis, and you're free to consider it as a reference or disregard it. No obligation! Emphasizing the importance of proper risk management—it can make a significant difference. Wishing you a successful and happy trading experience!
AUDJPY The Week Ahead 17th Feb 25The AUDJPY currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The recent oversold bounce back is retesting major resistance at 97.30.
The key trading level is at 97.30, which is the current swing high, 50 Day Moving Average and previous support now newly formed resistance. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 97.30 level could target the downside support at 94.90 followed by 93.40 and 91.40 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 97.30 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 98.50 resistance followed by 100.00 levels.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GBPAUD The Week AheadThe GBPAUD currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend.
The key trading level is at 2.010, which is the current swing high from Monday 03rd February’25. A bearish rejection from the 2.010 level could target the downside support at 1.975 followed by 1.960 and 1.946 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 2.010 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 2.020 resistance followed by 2.030 levels.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EURAUD Will Go Down! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for EURAUD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.651.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.636 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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AUDNZD Will Move Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for AUDNZD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.108.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.104 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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AUD/CHF SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are targeting the 0.559 level area with our short trade on AUD/CHF which is based on the fact that the pair is overbought on the BB band scale and is also approaching a resistance line above thus going us a good entry option.
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AUDNZD Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
AUDNZD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.1122 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.1128
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Bullish Outlook on 4H Chart: Key Fibonacci Levels in Focus
AUDCAD appears bullish on the 4-hour chart, with the first resistance level (Level 1) at 0.90550. A breakout above this level could drive the pair toward the next key resistance (Level 2) at 0.91257, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels.
EURAUD double top "neckline" at 1.6500The EURAUD currency pair price action sentiment appears neutral, supported by the longer-term sideways consolidation. However, the recent oversold bounce-back retest of the major resistance at 1.6500 could trigger a bearish reversal.
The key trading level is at 1.6500, which is the current swing high. A bearish rejection from the 1.6500 level could target the downside support at 1.6400 followed by 1.6350 and 1.6220 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 1.6650 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 1.6740 resistance followed by 1.6810 levels.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
AUDJPY retest of previous support at 97.30The AUDJPY currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The recent oversold bounce back is retesting major resistance at 97.30.
The key trading level is at 97.30, which is the current swing high, 50 Day Moving Average and previous support now newly formed resistance. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 97.30 level could target the downside support at 94.90 followed by 93.40 and 91.40 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 97.30 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 98.50 resistance followed by 100.00 levels.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.