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AUDJPY 4hour Analysis January 16th, 2022AUDJPY Bearish idea Weekly Trend: Bearish Daily Trend: Bullish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: On the daily timeframe we are looking pretty bullish but the 4hour timeframe is looking bearish and we have some room to fall here. Ideally, we see price action form a lower high near 83.250 resistance and we can target lower toward 81.500 support. Look to enter short on confirming bearish candlestick setups. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AJ bullish we would need to see a break of 83.250 with a higher low above. Look to target higher toward 85.000 resistance.
Short
by ForexLeague
AUDJPY potential for further uptrend | 12th JanPrice is trading in an ascending channel and is near buy entry price of 83.285 which is also 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 84.528 which is also 127.2% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
4
AUDJPY potential for further uptrend | 12th JanPrice is trading in an ascending channel and is near buy entry price of 83.285 which is also 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 84.528 which is also 127.2% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
AUDJPY bullish continuation! | 10th Jan 2022Prices are on bullish momentum and consolidating in a bullish channel . We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 82.89 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 84.234 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension . RSI are at levels where bounces occurred previously. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
3
AUDJPY bullish continuation! | 10th Jan 2022Prices are on bullish momentum and consolidating in a bullish channel. We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 82.89 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 84.234 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension. RSI are at levels where bounces occurred previously. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
AUD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy In Dec the RBA kept rates at 0.10% and weekly bond purchases at A$4bln until mid-Feb, as expected. They reiterated that they are committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions and won’t raise rates until actual inflation is sustainably within their 2%-3% target range. They noted that the economy is recovering from the Delta slowdown and is expected to return to pre-Delta path in 1H22. The positive take from the meeting was that the RBA does not think Omicron will derail the recovery and sounded a bit more optimistic than markets anticipated. They also said they will consider the future of their QE program at the Feb meeting and outlined their criteria which include actions of other central banks, bond market functioning and actual and expected progress towards the goals of full employment and inflation consistent with their target. All in all, the bank still had a dovish stance but was more optimistic about the economy than expected. Furthermore, out of the 3 criteria set by the bank, the first two is arguably a green light, so now we wait for incoming economic data to see whether it’s good enough for the bank to stop QE . 2. Economic & Health Developments There are 4 key drivers we’re watching for Australia’s med-term outlook: The virus situation – so far, the RBA has been positive about a post-Delta recovery, but incoming employment and inflation data will be crucial to see whether that optimism is justified. China – Even though the PBoC has finally stepped up with new stimulus & some fiscal support is expected in 1H22, the Covid-Zero policy in China does risk that the expected 2022 recovery might be delayed (not derailed) so the recent rapid rise in cases is one to watch in case China sees additional lockdown restrictions. Politically, the recent AUKUS defence pact could see possible retaliation from China against Australian goods. Commodities – Iron Ore, (24% of exports) and Coal prices (18% of exports) are important for terms of trade, and with both of them pushing higher on PBoC easing, that is a positive for the AUD as long as they remain their recent push higher. Global growth – as a risk proxy, where the global economy goes from here will be another important consideration for AUD, with more focus on China though. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the AUD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the AUD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the AUD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed positioning change of -7526 with a net non-commercial position of -89366. As outsized net-shorts are usually seen as a contrarian indicator we want to be mindful of potential squeezes higher for the AUD, which also means that the AUD is likely to be more sensitive to positive data than negative data. The downside in equities have seen an additional increase in net-shorts and has once again moved closer towards historical lows, so be weary of short squeezes in the event of positive news. 5. The Week Ahead The week ahead is light in terms of economic data for the Aussie Dollar with only Retail Sales on the schedule. Even though it’s not a tier 1 data point, a substantial surprise could be market-moving for the AUD in the event of an unexpected beat which might see some of the stretched net-shorts square up and could create some upside in the AUD. Apart from that, the idea of a faster Fed as well as the steep rise in global yields have put equities under pressure, and as a favourite risk proxy has hit the AUD quite hard, so any further downside in equities will be important for the AUD this week and could see further pressure added if it also coincides with additional lockdown fears in China. On the China front we also have Chinese inflation data coming out this week so keep that on the radar for potential reactions in the AUD as well. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy At their Dec meeting the BoJ kept policy mostly unchanged apart from unanimously voting to scale back emergency pandemic relief funding from March which includes tapering corporate bond and commercial paper buying, but they did also vote to extend a portion of the pandemic relief loan scheme to March for smaller firms. As always, the BoJ said they are ready to add additional stimulus and easing steps as the economy needs it. The bank reiterated that even though the economy has picked up it does still remain in a severe situation due to the COVID-19. The bank remains dovish and is unlikely going to change anytime soon. 2. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving for the JPY; and although monetary policy expectations can still prove marketmoving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. As the Fed and other banks start to normalize, we do need to remember that it means those fiscal and monetary policy support is being reduced, which could mean a lot more volatility for markets in the weeks and months ahead. Even though that doesn’t mean our med-term bias for the JPY has changed, it simply means that we should expect more risk sentiment ebbs and flows this year, and the heightened volatility can create some fantastic directional moves in the JPY, as long as yields play their part. 3. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares a strong inverse correlation to moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y . However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y isn’t perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from both a risk and cycle point of view. With the Fed tilting more aggressive, we think that opens up more room for curve flattening to take place with US02Y likely pushing higher while US10Y underperform. In this environment we do see some mild upside risks for the JPY, but we should not look at the influence from yields in isolation and also weigh it up alongside underlying risk sentiment and price action in the USD of course. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -9160 with a net non-commercial position of -62262. Even though the JPY’s med-term outlook remains bearish , the big net-shorts for both large speculators and leveraged funds always increases the odds of more punchy safe haven flows and mean reversion when risk sentiment deteriorates. However, despite risk sentiment taking a hit in the past trading week, the JPY has remained pressured as the move in US yields kept any JPY rallies in check. 5. The Week Ahead In the week ahead the biggest focus for the JPY will be on overall risk sentiment with the big rally in risk sentiment going into the last few trading days of the year with S&P futures managing to squeeze out another all-time high and Nasdaq futures getting very close to doing the same. The big amount of upside has been mostly attributed to equities taking the path of least resistance ( med-term bias remains tilted higher) and moves was probably exacerbated by thinner liquidity and lower volumes. If that momentum can continue at the start of the new year, we can expect to see further downside for the safe haven JPY and will be a key focus for the currency for the week ahead. Apart from that, keeping an eye on US yields will be important as always.
by thunderpips
2
AUDJPY short-term bearish momentum | 4th Jan 2022Price is abiding to the ascending channel , signifying a bullish momentum. However, we can expect price to make a short-term bearish drop from the pivot level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards take profit level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection . Our bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where the RSI is abiding to the descending trendline resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
3
AUDJPY short-term bearish momentum | 4th Jan 2022Price is abiding to the ascending channel, signifying a bullish momentum. However, we can expect price to make a short-term bearish drop from the pivot level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards take profit level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where the RSI is abiding to the descending trendline resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet