Dominant Currency Sentiment – JPY Remains SupportedAntipodeans leading to the upside, with some support garnered from the PBoC’s efforts to prop up China’s economy, including easing its RRR and an injection of CNY 10 billion via 7-day reverse repos.
However, despite the above, concerns surrounding the global economic outlook are continuing to grow, pulling the antipodeans off their best levels and supporting JPY, which also remains supported across the board. As such, AUDJPY is quickly approaching the 92.00 handle, while NZDJPY was unable to hold the 85.00 handle after briefly breaking above in late Asia-Pacific trade.
Looking ahead, today’s economic calendar is light on tier one data, keeping the market’s attention fixed on ongoing themes such as the global economic outlook, China’s economic outlook/lockdown and policy divergences between central banks.
Aud-nzd
AUDNZD: A Sharp Price Rejection from the Key Resistance LevelAUDNZD has reached a key resistance level of 1.1000, followed by an immediate sharp price rejection (a doji star plus a large bearish engulfing candle). Since 2020, all two long-term bearish reversals have occurred from this level. However, we know that the trend of AUDNZD is persistent. Therefore, we want to make sure that a reversal has actually occured before throwing in sell positions. It is good to enter the market late but right rather than early but wrong.
Entry Criteria:
After a rejection from the 1.1000 level, the price has reached a support level of 1.8000-1.8200. From here, we expect the price to bounce up again to retest the high, or if not, the 1.0900 level. If a reversal has really taken a place, then the price should break the support area of 1.0800, plus a daily candle closing below that support level. Only then, we can prepare our sell entries at the neckline area to capture the retest and ride the wave down to the first target of 1.0600 level.
AUDNZD Long-term sell opportunityThe AUDNZD pair broke above its August 2020 Lower Highs trend-line in late March and is now approaching the 1.104500 Resistance. This is similar to the late October 2017 break-out above the Lower Highs. In fact the two phases seem identical on a wider 3 year scale.
The 2017 fractal reversed soon after it broke above the Lower Highs and initially reached as low as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. That is currently just below the 1.04000 level, and is our long-term target on the AUDNZD pair. Notice that the RSI on the 1W time-frame is at the highest level since July 2008 of the subprime mortgage crisis.
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Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsAntipodeans – AUD and NZD lost ground on Thursday as markets wagered on an ever-more aggressive cycle of rate rises by the FOMC that would threaten both the outlook for global and the bull run in commodities markets.
Additionally, Reuters notes that “investors are also beginning to fret that such drastic tightening is likely to slow economic growth across the developed world and risk recession, particularly in Europe where energy costs are soaring. That outlook would not be especially bullish for commodity demand overall, even if a protracted conflict in Ukraine tended to keep energy prices higher for longer.”
AUDNZD ReversalAUDNZD begins to break down from a reversal level and near touch of a liquidity zone that has been sustained since 2015. I am taking shorts here for a small target but on a much larger time frame. Huge amount of risk reward with setups that test yearly liquidity so I am risking slightly more than average. This is not investment advice rather my analysis.
AUDNZD Potential bounce|30th Mar 2022On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our take profit at 1.08754 in line with the swing high resistance from our entry of 1.07830 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for our stop loss at 1.07516 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
AUDNZD Supply And Demand Analysis-Price reacting off of daily/4hr supply.
-Price broke 4hr upward trend line and removed pivot point demand
-1hr RBD (rally Base Drop) supply zone.
-Waiting for pullback into supply for short.
AUDNZD on a retracement move 🦐AUDNZD on the 4h chart is moving at the top of the trend in an ascending channel.
The price after the attempt to break the upper trendline melted below for a test of the lower support trendline over a daily static support area.
How can we approach this scenario?
We will wait for the break of the confluence zone and after that, we will check for the application of the Plancton Academy rules to set a nice short order for our usual risk-reward ratio.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
AUD/NZD ShortFeb 16
A perfect sell setup for the pair. as the Russia ,Ukrain uncentainty ways on hi beta currencies , we expect it to have a very negative impact on the AUD and thus pressure the pair. The market structure has a perfect WXY pattern that makes the pair very attractive for the coming even. good trade manangement required.
AUDNZD Sell signal and invalidationThis is an update to the latest long-term buy signal I gave on AUDNZD on November 01 2021, when the price was approaching the bottom of its multi-year Channel Down:
Now that the pair is approaching our target and the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down, it is time to turn bearish. The short-term target is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.05350. If on the other hand the price breaks above 1.08500, this trade is invalidated and instead the pair will most likely turn bullish towards the 1.10450 Resistance.
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AUDNZD on bullish momentum! | 8th Feb 2022Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending trendline. We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 1.06997 in line with 61.8 Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 1.07583 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurs.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
AUDNZD bullish bounce | 7th Feb 2022 Price is reacting on the ascending channel, signifying an overall bulllish momentum. We can expect price to bounce at the pivot level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards take profit level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bounce is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K is at the support line.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.