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Aud-nzd

AUDNZD Facing bearish pressure | 1 July 2021AUDNZD holding below the descending trendline. Having broken below the recent graphical swing low, a further drop below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.07266 towards long term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.06818 could be possible. Technical indicators are showing room for further bearish momentum as well. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
2
AUDNZD , waiting for direction... If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
AUDNZD approaching resistance | 17th June 2021AUDNZD is approaching sell entry, in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, where we could see a reversal and downside towards Take Profit, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing low support. MACD and moving average are showing signs of bearish pressure as well. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
3
AUDNZD bearish breakout | 15th June 2021AUDNZD has seen a bearish breakout below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance and is now holding below the moving average resistance. We could see price reverse at Sell Entry, in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8%, 100% Fibonacci extension, and horizontal pullback resistance, and drop further towards Take profit, in line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
1
NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSFundamental bias: Strong bullish 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has remained broadly well supported in times of risk-on and as the overall risk outlook and tolerance of the market has improved over recent months. With coronavirus vaccines programs now underway in many countries, we expect the months ahead to see a further gradual improvement in the overall risk outlook and global economic outlook. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ Going into 2021, the monetary policy outlook for the RBNZ were positive after the bank pushed back against the need for negative rates, as well as a string of positive economic data points showed the impact from the pandemic was less severe on the NZ economy than previously anticipated. However, optimism has diminished in recent sessions as new legislation by New Zealand's government to cool its housing market is expected to provide the RBNZ with more time before being forced to normalize policy. Consequently, that saw market expectations for the timing of future rate hikes being pushed back. However, at their May policy meeting the bank confirmed the market’s expectations that they will follow in the BOC’s footsteps to signal a move away from ultra-easy monetary policy, by bringing forward rate hike expectations to as early as 2022. Recall that during their February policy meeting the uncertainty was high enough for the bank to provide no guidance on interest rates past March 2021, so for the bank to provide guidance for rates to rise next year and for further higher rates running into 2024 shows a very hawkish tilt as it was a material change in the bank’s optimism for the economy, both now and going forward. After the RBNZ’s shift we have upgraded our bias for the bank from BULLISH to STRONG BULLISH as we anticipate the shift to provide a favourable sentiment for the NZD in the short-term. 3. The country’s economic and health developments With the new macroprudential policies put in place by the NZ government, it will be very important to keep close track of the virus situation in NZ as well as the incoming data. Due to the recent Macroprudential policies put in place by the NZ government our focus has turned to the incoming economic data as a guideline for whether the RBNZ will potentially move forward with tapering QE this year or not. This week’s upcoming quarterly GDP data will be in focus for the currency, especially after the surprising softer price action we’ve seen recently. For now, the fundamental bias remains intact and agree with ING investment bank that the recent underperformance in the currency is not warranted by the fundamentals which still point to strength ahead for the NZD.
by thunderpips
4
AUDNZD testing the trendline 🦐AUDNZD after the last impulse is testing the trendline below a minor resistance. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above we will set a nice long order. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
2
AUDNZD approaching buy entry | 7th June 2021AUDNZD is approaching buy entry, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 127.2% Fibonacci extension , ascending trendline support and horizontal swing low support. We could see a bounce from here and further rise up to reach take profit level, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Price is also holding above moving average support, in line with our analysis. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
AUD NZD SELL (AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR)Rationale: *Last week the RBNZ made a material shift in their policy stance by providing forward guidance that they project a hike in the OCR to occur by September 2022. This was despite the fact that the bank still acknowledged that there is a long way to go for things like growth, inflation and the labour market and showed that the bank’s decision was not only due to the better-than-expected outlook but also part reaction function. The bank also dropped their prior comments which said that they were “prepared to lower the OCR if required”, which is a 180 degree turn from just three months ago where they didn’t have enough confidence to provide rate guidance past March 2021. *Contrast this to the RBA, which has opted to fall in line with the likes of the FED recently by choosing a more dovish stance on policy and especially forward guidance, by stating that they would only consider raising rates when they have met their goals and they only see those goals being met by 2024. Start contrast to that of the RBNZ. The RBA will also take longer to normalize compared to the RBNZ even if the economic data surprises because they have more easy policies currently in place that needs to be unwound first such as their Yield Curve Control. Furthermore, given their recent dovish inclinations, market participants are expecting them to announce an additional QE program. Trade Risks: *If the recent downside in commodity prices turn around and start pushing higher again that would benefit the AUD from a terms of trade point of view and could pose challenges for the pair. *Any major risk off flows across major asset classes (which is not inflation driven) can weigh on yields as bonds is also considered a safe haven, thus given the strange move lower in NZ10Y today that could create some further divergence in the yield spread to the upside. *Any bad news surrounding the virus situation in the NZ could also pose some downside in the NZD. *A surprise hawkish tilt from the RBA at their July meeting is arguably the biggest risk to further downside for the AUDNZD right now.
by thunderpips
7
AUDNZD testing the resistance 🦐AUDNZD after the test of the weekly trendline moved above to the resistance zone at the 1.07200 area. The price is now testing it and according to Plancton's strategy if the market will break above we will set a nice long order. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
AUD on the rise after better GDP data!This is not a traditional type of trade we would normally take, swing trade that is, but with the much better than expected data out of Australia in Q1 of 2021, ofcourse the trade is supported with technical indications which we're about to list below. - 10 DAY EMA Price has moved above the 10 day ema, and is supported by higher lows leading to a rejection level, thus completing a pattern that would indicate a bullish break - PRICE ACTION As mentioned above, we see higher lows right now, which when supported with excellent fundamental data only increases the proability of a higher move on AUD vs the NZD As an overall we believe we should see gains on the AUD for the rest of the week, unless some negative data comes out the retail sales due tomorrow during the Asian session. Good luck trading!
Long
by PrimedGroup