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Aud-nzd

ridethepig | Looking at AUDNZD from 40,000ftOn the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. Unemployment overshooting may be the start of a round of good data for AUD which will keep the RBA on hold meaning markets will need to price out all of those betting on a RBA Feb rate cut. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. Although into year-end NZD also spiking higher but rather than from good data it was with a positional squeeze into 0.66xx before running out of steam. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD but AUD has more room to outperform if data holds: A “ Royal Flush ” for us and the Commodity Currencies. As widely mentioned yesterday, stronger AUD employment data sending AUDUSD flying towards the 0.69xx handle: I am looking to close longs at 0.695x which is still the same level in play from the larger swing into year-end: For those holding since October when we loaded the breakup we will have to wait till 2020 to clear final targets: For the AUD macro map: For the NZD macro map: As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc! Feel free to jump into the conversations in the comments with your views/charts. If we get enough interest we will have a round of Fixed Income chart updates coming for AU and NZ.
Long
by ridethepig
5
Buying AUDNZD Aggressively !!A timely update to the previous AUDNZD weekly chart and after completing the initial selloff we are set for a major leg to the topside. Before we dig into the Fundamental and Technical side I recommend for those following to start by reviewing the previous charts to understand how and why we are trading the lows: On the AUD side, markets are pricing an RBA move in Q120 with 50bps cut 60% priced in. Should see some unwinding for those outguessing a surprise like we did with RBNZ. Australian surpluses is providing a mattress to AUD as the historically low yield pick-up is allows deficits to be financed. Perhaps what is most interesting of all and highlights the underlying shift towards the USD devaluation / reflationary theme comes from real money managers who have started to take profits on their AUD shorts after RBA delivered in June & July are once again reaching extremes and ready to unwind again. On the NZD side, NZD is not expected to outperform AUD however the housing market is showing signs of strength as collateral from AUD. Markets have reduce further the over pricing of RBNZ cuts, which is what has supported NZD in the short-medium term. For the fiscal side, we had highlights going overnight to NZ announcing a big round of fiscal spending. Markets have since gone overboard selling AUDNZD. In any case, here is the NZDUSD map for 2020: For the technicals I am tracking an impulsive swing to the highs after markets completed plumbing the 1.03xx lows via NZ fiscal flows (a mouthful). Those with a background in waves will know we have market the lows in a multi year 5 wave sequence which we traded live here: ….and can lean on the AUD macro directional side: Lastly for those following NZDCAD and AUDCAD flows are sitting comfortably in profits and can let the rest run for our final targets: Best of luck all those trading the lows and buying dips. Please keep your support coming with likes and jump into the conversation comments with your views and charts as usual!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | AUDNZD Market Commentary 2019.11.29Here we are tracking further downside in the cross as NZD strength continues across the board before AUD takes the wheel in 2020. Among the commodity currencies, NZD stands out the most into year-end and those following the macro updates in Telegram and charts will know I have also been sitting long NZDCAD, with a dovish BoC and RBNZ 'hawkish' surprise there continues to be further upside: For AUDNZD flows, for the most part of 2019 the market has been heavily short NZD, and the NZD short cleansing pullback is likely to continue if regional growth and trade improves. Watching risk sentiment closely, with AUDJPY and NZDJPY coming to life intraday and with the power to drive the commodity currencies on other crosses. On the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD: As previously mentioned, confidence for those betting on the topside has increased dramatically after cracking 1.0620, watch closely for follow-throughs here into 2020 after the NZD outperformance theme fades away. Best of luck those already in positions and those looking to build swing positions into 2020. ...Please remember to keep the support coming with likes and comments!
by ridethepig