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Risk Off Dominates as concerns over China’s latest outbreak riseThe risk off tone dominated price action as growing concerns over China’s latest coronavirus outbreak remained in focus, keeping the antipodeans pressured while supporting safe havens. Alongside the risk off tone, AUD was further pressured by comments from RBA Deputy Governor Bullock, who stated that although rates would rise further, they are nearing the point where they could “sit and wait” for a while. Given the above, AUDUSD briefly slipped below the 0.64 handle, while AUDJPY fell below the 94.00 handle, and EURAUD reclaimed the 1.56 handle. Looking ahead, today’s main event will be US CPI in the upcoming US session. However, there are also central bank speakers scheduled throughout the day, including BoE’s Ramsden and Tenreyro, Fed’s Mester and George, and BoC Governor Macklem.
by thunderpips
1
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 10th November 2022The overall bias for AUDUSD on the H4 chart is bullish. In addition, price is above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Look for a pullback buy entry at 0.63869, which is where the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci lines intersect. The stop loss will be set at 0.63310, just below the 78.6% and 50% Fibonacci lines. The take profit will be set at 0.65225 where the previous high is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. For the week ahead, overall risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, as well as any further developments regarding the recent rumours and speculation of a potential China reopening. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. For the week ahead the main highlight will be the US CPI report which can have a big impact across major asset classes. Apart from that, overall risk sentiment and any additional developments on China’s side with regards to potential reopening will be important to watch. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. At the NOV FOMC presser, Fed Chair Powell shattered any big hopes of a pivot and warned that their SEP expectations for the terminal rate will have to be revised higher. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The past week was a choppy one for the USD, with upside seen after the more hawkish Fed presser, but a unexpected and punchy move lower after Friday’s mixed NFP jobs report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The week ahead will give us the most recent US CPI data which will be the biggest focus for markets, and we also have UoM Consumer Sentiment to watch. The price action in the USD following Friday’s NFP was interesting, but not something to use with any real conviction to trade into the week ahead. Waiting for CPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment seems like the safest way to approach the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 9th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish . To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 0.63869, where the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci lines are located. Stop loss will be set at 0.63310, slightly below where the 78.6% and 50% Fibonacci lines are located. Take profit will be set at 0.65225, where the previous high is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
5
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. For the week ahead, overall risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, as well as any further developments regarding the recent rumours and speculation of a potential China reopening. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. For the week ahead the main highlight will be the US CPI report which can have a big impact across major asset classes. Apart from that, overall risk sentiment and any additional developments on China’s side with regards to potential reopening will be important to watch. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. At the NOV FOMC presser, Fed Chair Powell shattered any big hopes of a pivot and warned that their SEP expectations for the terminal rate will have to be revised higher. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The past week was a choppy one for the USD, with upside seen after the more hawkish Fed presser, but a unexpected and punchy move lower after Friday’s mixed NFP jobs report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The week ahead will give us the most recent US CPI data which will be the biggest focus for markets, and we also have UoM Consumer Sentiment to watch. The price action in the USD following Friday’s NFP was interesting, but not something to use with any real conviction to trade into the week ahead. Waiting for CPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment seems like the safest way to approach the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
2
Selling AUDUSD at market.AUDUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.6478 (stop at 0.6527) There is no sign that this bullish momentum is faltering but the pair has stalled close to a previous swing high of 0.6492. We are trading at overbought extremes. Price action looks to be forming a top. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 0.6470 level. Our profit targets will be 0.6330 and 0.6170 Resistance: 0.6650 / 0.6910 / 0.7135 Support: 0.6400 / 0.6170 / 0.6000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
1
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Momentum | 8th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 0.63982, where the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci lines are located. Stop loss will be set at 0.63299, where the 23.6% and 50% Fibonacci lines are located. Take profit will be set at 0.65257, where the previous high and 100% Fibonacci line lies. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA took another 25bsp hike at their previous meeting, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected. But with Core Trimmed CPI >6.0% the hiking cycle is arguable not close to over just yet. For the week ahead, overall risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, as well as any further developments regarding the recent rumours and speculation of a potential China reopening. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. For the week ahead the main highlight will be the US CPI report which can have a big impact across major asset classes. Apart from that, overall risk sentiment and any additional developments on China’s side with regards to potential reopening will be important to watch. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. At the NOV FOMC presser, Fed Chair Powell shattered any big hopes of a pivot and warned that their SEP expectations for the terminal rate will have to be revised higher. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The past week was a choppy one for the USD, with upside seen after the more hawkish Fed presser, but a unexpected and punchy move lower after Friday’s mixed NFP jobs report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The week ahead will give us the most recent US CPI data which will be the biggest focus for markets, and we also have UoM Consumer Sentiment to watch. The price action in the USD following Friday’s NFP was interesting, but not something to use with any real conviction to trade into the week ahead. Waiting for CPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment seems like the safest way to approach the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
1
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis November 6th, 2022AUDUSD Beaish Idea Weekly Trend: Bearish Daily Trend: Bearish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: We have experienced some high volume last week which leaves us with a difficult chart to read this week. Looking at the chart we can see that overall we’re bearish until we see some structure above 0.65500 as that is where the last 4hour high plummeted from. Ideally, we can spot a nice reversal from this high and look to enter on lower highs below support levels. Trade scenario 2: If we are to consider AU bullish again we would need to see this bullish volume from last week continue and push AU above 0.65500. If this happens we can look for structure forming higher lows and comfortably enter long.
Short
by ForexLeague
1
AUDUSD for this week As the DXY weaken on Friday, reversing the gains through the week, the AUDUSD bounced strongly from the support level of 0.6277. In fact, the price rose very strongly to reach 0.6468, just below the 0.65 swing high level reached on 27th October. The AUDUSD is likely to continue climbing toward the 0.6550 price level and slightly beyond, especially if the DXY continues to weaken. However, with the anticipation that the DXY could strengthen later into the week, which could break about the reversal on the AUDUSD.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Fading the rally on AUDUSDAUDUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.6400 (stop at 0.6450) We are trading at oversold extremes. A Doji-style candle has been posted from the base. The current move higher is expected to continue. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. The 200-period moving average should provide resistance at 0.6410. We, therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 0.6250 and 0.6170 Resistance: 0.6400 / 0.6540 / 0.6655 Support: 0.6170 / 0.6000 / 0.5800 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
1
AUD/USD:SELL From Pullback Flag Pattern for a SHORT SetupAUD/USD in the last hours after our Target on the Bat Pattern, the price is trying to recover value but, as you can see from our technical analysis, the price is still in a strong downtrend where the Dynamic trendline pushes the price down every time there is a trying for the price to grow. We have recognized a Bearish Flag pattern where the price has already broken the support of this one, our Idea is about a retest of the previous level on 0.63750 with a pullback in the direction of the main trend. If the price will grow over 0.6550 then a possible change in the trend will activate our alternative scenario.
Short
by FOREXN1
13
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish MomentumOn the H4 chart, as the price is breaking the ascending trendline and below ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop form the sell entry at 0.63496, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci resistance and overlap support to the take profit at 0.61699, where the swing low is. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 0.64329, which is in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement . Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
1
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 4th November 2022On the H4, with the price crossing the ichimoku cloud and breaking ascending trendline, we can expect the price drop from the sell entry at 0.63351, which is in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 0.61921, where the swing low is. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 0.64252, where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
1
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA surprised this past week with a 25bsp hike, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected (STIR markets priced out close to 75bsp from the terminal rate after the decision). As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, and that means Q3 earnings season needs to be kept on the radar this incoming week. The RBA meeting will also be in focus after the sold quarterly CPI print we had this past week. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. The RBA caught markets by surprise with their 25bsp hike this past week. If the bank surprises with a 50bsp due to the strong QQ CPI it would be supportive for the AUD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. The RBA caught markets by surprise with their 25bsp hike this past week. With some participants expecting a 50bsp hike after the QQ CPI, another 25bsp hike could pressure the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. For the week ahead the focus will be on the RBA where markets want to see whether the RBA will be swayed by solid QQ CPI to hike by 50bsp. Our baseline expectation is that the bank will stick to a 25bsp, which could see downside for the AUD since a few market participants have changed their view to expect a 50bsp from the bank. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. Markets expect another 75bsp hike in NOV and currently prices the terminal rate at 4.89%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). Our expectation for a softer USD this past week played to our advantage with a punchy move lower in the Dollar. The week ahead is filled with lots of US economic data and the FOMC policy decision which will all be important drivers for the USD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.0% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. We have a very excited economic calendar for the US in the week ahead, with lots of important economic data and the FOMC meeting. For the econ data our expectation is for a cyclical reaction where very good data is expected to support the USD and very bad data expected to pressure the USD. As for the Fed, the main focus will be on whether the FOMC confirms a downshift in the pace and size of hikes.
by thunderpips
6
AUDUSD Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn the H4 chart, as the price is breaking the ascending trendline and below ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop form the sell entry at 0.63351, which is in line with the 50% fibonacci resistance and overlap support to the take profit at 0.61699, where the swing low is. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 0.64329, which is in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
1
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 3rd November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for AUDUSD is bearish. To add confluence to this, price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 0.63934, where the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are located. Take profit will be located at 0.62578, where the 23.6% and 78.6% Fibonacci lines are located. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
2