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AUDUSD 4hour Analysis October 16th, 2022AUDUSD Bearish Idea Weekly Trend: Bearish Daily Trend: Bearish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: We are still looking very bearish on AU going into this week. We recently saw massive rejection from our 0.63200 zone and it is likely that AU will push to a new low before showing us structure. If this happens we’ll have to remain patient and look for future structure. Trade scenario 2: If price action pulls back to 0.63200 we will have another potential short opportunity. Look for strong rejection and clear bearish price action to enter short.
Short
by ForexLeague
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA surprised this past week with a 25bsp hike, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected (STIR markets priced out close to 75bsp from the terminal rate after the decision). As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, and that means US CPI and the start of Q3 earnings season (both catalysts that can trigger decent reactions in risk sentiment) needs to be kept on the radar this incoming week. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. The RBA caught markets by surprise with their 25bsp hike this past week. Any push back from the RBA stressing a smaller hike doesn’t mean a lower terminal rate can be AUD positive. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. The RBA caught markets by surprise with their 25bsp hike this past week. Any push back from the RBA stressing a smaller hike doesn’t mean a lower terminal rate can be AUD positive. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. The week ahead is very light on the calendar front for the AUD, which means overall risk sentiment will be the biggest focus (US CPI and Q3 Earnings Season the catalysts to watch). USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). It was a choppy week for the USD, with entertaining ‘Fed Pivot’ narratives trying to make sense of the price action. In the week ahead, all eyes turns to the week’s main event which is Thursday’s September US CPI report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a higher than 5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. In the upcoming week markets will only have eyes for one data point and that will be the US September CPI data released on Thursday. With expectations of a higher Core CPI YY but expectations of a lower Headline CPI YY it seems risky to trade into this event.
by thunderpips
2
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Rise| 13th October 2022On H4, with the MACD is showing a golden cross, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the buy entry at 0.62629, which is in line with the swing low to the take profit at 0.63876, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 0.62035, where the 61.8% fibonacci projection is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
1
AUDUSD M30: Bullish outlook seen, limited upside above 0.62650On the M30 time frame, prices are approaching the support zone at 0.62650 which coincides with the Fibonacci confluence levels. A throwback to this 0.62650 support zone presents an opportunity to play the bounce to the next resistance zone at 0.63300. This resistance zone is also a graphical resistance zone in line with the 100% Fibonacci extension. Prices are holding above the 50 EMA as well, supporting the bullish bias.
Long
by T3-Consultancy
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 10th October 2022On the H4, the price is moving below the ichimoku cloud and descending channel, we have a bearish bias that the price may rise to the sell entry at 0.63973, which is in line with the previous swing low and then drop to the take profit at 0.62085, which is in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 0.65503, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
3
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis October 9th, 2022AUDUSD Bearish Idea Weekly Trend: Bearish Daily Trend: Bearish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: We are overall bearish on AU but we have been stuck in a range that looks to be breaking bearishly now. Going into this week we’re looking to ride the existing bearish trend and a break of 0.64000 with a lower high below would be enough to consider shorts. Trade scenario 2: If we are to consider AU more bullish we first would need to see a bounce off 0.64000 and the range continue. Look to target toward the top of the range then consider reactions at resistance.
Short
by ForexLeague
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Trend | 6th October 2022On the H4, with the price testing the resistance at 0.65333, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement sits, and crossing ichimoku cloud, if the price can break the current resistance successfully, we can expect the price rise to the take profit at 0.66373, which is in line with the 50% and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, the price may drop back to the stop loss at 0.645225, which is in line with the overlap support. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
AUDUSD Potential For Bullish RiseOn the H4, with the price testing the resistance at 0.65383, where the previous swing high sits, and crossing ichimoku cloud, if the price can break the current resistance successfully, we can expect the price rise to the take profit at 0.66604, which is in line with the 50% and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, the price may drop back to the stop loss at 0.64469, which is in line with the overlap support. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsAUD – The Australian dollar lost ground on Tuesday, having rallied sharply overnight, after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a smaller-than expected rate hike, even as central banks elsewhere are raising rates aggressively. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia, which had predicted the 25 basis points move, expects the central bank to hike by another 25 bps in November before pausing. They note: “From that point, our central scenario has the RBA on hold as they give themselves time to assess the lagged impact of rate rises on the Australian economy.”
by thunderpips
2
Joe Gun2Head Trade - AUDUSD forming a short term bottom?Trade Idea: Buying AUDUSD Reasoning: AUDUSD forming a short term bottom? Entry Level: 0.6535 Take Profit Level: 0.6651 Stop Loss: 0.6484 Risk/Reward: 2.25:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Long
by Signal_Centre
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Continuation| 4th Oct 2022On the H4, with the price reversing from the previous resistance, and the price is below ichimoku cloud, the price may drop form the sell entry at 0.65337, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 0.63630, which is in line with the swing low, 161.8% fibonacci extension and 127.2% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, the price may break the sell entry, and rise to the stop loss at 0.66373, where the pullback resistance, 50% and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
1
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis October 2nd, 2022AUDUSD Bearish Idea Weekly Trend: Bearish Daily Trend: Bearish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: Overall AU is still bearish and we are technically in an active trade. Currently price action is resting right near 0.64000 support and we are waiting for reactions. The most likely scenario is price action continuing to fall to a new low. If we see a break of 0.64000 we will look for lower highs to confirm more bearish pressure. Trade scenario 2: If we see a bounce off 0.64000 it is likely price action will push up toward 0.65500 resistance.
Short
by ForexLeague
1
AUDUSD - Possible Inverse H&S!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on DAILY: Left Chart AUDUSD is sitting around a strong support zone so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. Unless that support is broken downward, then further movement downward would be expected. on H4: Right Chart AUDUSD is forming an inverse head and shoulders but it is not ready to go yet. Trigger => For the bulls to take over, we need a momentum candle close above the gray neckline. Meanwhile, until the bulls take over, we would still be bearish and AUDUSD can still break the support downward. Which scenario do you think is more probable and why? Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
6
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish MomentumOn the H4, the price is moving in a strong bearish trend. To add on confluence to this bias, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bear market. Currently, the price is testing the sell entry at 0.65255, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement. The price may drop from here to the take profit at 0.63644, which is in line with the swing low, 161.8% fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci projection. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 0.65780, where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
AUDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 29th Sept 2022On the H4, the price is moving in a strong bearish trend. To add on confluence to this bias, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bear market. Currently, the price is testing the sell entry at 0.65320, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement. The price may drop from here to the take profit at 0.63638, which is in line with the swing low, 161.8% fibonacci extension, and 127.2% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 0.66379, where the pullback resistance, 50% and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet