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Aud-usd

AUD to challenge USD for the throne of King CurrencyAUD/USD has been belted in recent weeks as the USD bullied every major FX pair. The selling is overdone and into major support ahead of the FOMC meeting tonight. Yesterday the RBA raised rates by 0.25% to 0.35% and we have begun the rate hike cycle with the central bank refocused on inflation. We look for buy the rumour sell the fact USD selling tonight after the FED rate hike or for the bond market to begin pricing in more Australia rate hikes than currently priced in.
Long
by easyMarkets
1
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their April meeting, the RBA took a slightly more hawkish stance by removing their reference to ‘patience’ in terms of policy tightening. With the bank taking a sanguine view of rising price pressures, the statement did reveal a growing concern for inflation with 10 references to ‘inflation’ in the statement. The bank explained that higher energy and commodity price could see a sizeable increase to inflation forecasts in the May report. In their Financial Stability report the bank urged borrowers to prepare for an increase in rates, which was a further signal from the bank. Even though the meeting showed a bank that is turning the page, the statement also revealed very similar conditionality such as incoming wage and inflation data. Following the meeting, markets have a bit of an overreaction by pricing in a >80% chance of a rate hike at the May meeting but was later pushed back to <30%. Given the importance of wage data, and since that is only release on the 18th of May, the most likely meeting for a first hike is the June meeting. Westpac investment bank agrees with our take with the bank expecting a 15bsp lift off in June, followed by 25bsp hikes in July, August, Oct and Nov. Even though this confirms our fundamental bullish bias, the >14 hikes priced by end 2023 means risks of lower repricing is building. 2. Idiosyncratic Drivers & Intermarket Analysis Apart from the RBA, there are 3 drivers we’re watching for the med-term outlook: Recovery – unlike other nations where growth & inflation is expected to slow, Australia is expected to see recovery, mostly thanks to stimulus in China China – With the PBoC & CCP stepping up monetary and fiscal stimulus, any recovery in China bodes well for Australia (China accounts for 40% of Australian exports). It also means the current virus situation in China posesshort-term downside risks for AUD. The AUKUS defence pact could see retaliation against Aussie goods and is worth keeping on the radar as well Commodities – Iron Ore (31%), Coal (14%) and LNG (10%) is more than 50% of Aussie exports, with rising prices giving the AUD huge support from terms of trade. If commodities remain supported it remains a support for AUD, but of course also means any sizeable corrections would weigh on the AUD, which means geopolitical and China demand developments remain focus points. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the AUD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the AUD. 4. CFTC Analysis Quite strange positioning change for the AUD with Leverage Funds trimming net-shorts by a chunky amount but Asset Managers showing a whopping build up in net-short contracts. The shift in Asset Manager positioning could explain the reluctance of the AUD to make any real progress despite very positive China developments. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That does not change the bullish outlook for the USD in the med-term but means that we would wait for pullbacks before initiating new longs with price at new cycle highs. 4. The Week Ahead The main event for the week ahead will no doubt be the FOMC meeting, but we’ll also get ISM PMIs as well as the April jobs print coming our way. For the FOMC, we think the Fed has set themselves a very high hawkish bar going into the meeting. STIR markets are pricing in 3 back-to-back 50bsp hikes, as well as an earlier start to QT ($95bn p/m). On the language side, recent Fed speak has seen even the doves find their inner hawks by talking up very aggressive policy tightening. So, with all of that as the baseline going into the meeting, it means the Fed would need to hike 75bsp and up the expected QT pace to really surprise markets. With the USD and Yields at cycle highs and equities at cycle lows, that increases the chances of some sell-the-fact reactions. This would be our preferred strategy for the USD going into the week. Then we also have the data where the ISM PMI data will be closely watched for further clues of whether growth is slowing faster than expected. On the jobs side, the impact of the NFP will most likely be dictated by the outcome of the FOMC decision. If the Fed manages to surprise on the hawkish side (seems unlikely) a beat in jobs won’t do much to change that, but a miss can certainly do a lot to stir the pot (even more so if the Fed decision is interpreted as ‘less hawkish’.
by thunderpips
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsAUD – The Australian dollar rallied on Tuesday after the RBA raised rates by more than expected and signalled further moves ahead, leading investors to wager on a faster tightening in the coming months. The central bank announced a 25 basis point rate hike, taking the Cash Rate to 0.35%, versus consensus for a 15 basis point rate hike, which would have taken the Cash Rate to 0.25%. Commenting on the announcement, NAB queried “does it mean that they will do 40 basis points in June, so we are up to 75 basis points? It is certainly possible. It looks like their narrative and the inflation forecasts that they’re hinting at comes across as fairly hawkish.”
by thunderpips
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their April meeting, the RBA took a slightly more hawkish stance by removing their reference to ‘patience’ in terms of policy tightening. With the bank taking a sanguine view of rising price pressures, the statement did reveal a growing concern for inflation with 10 references to ‘inflation’ in the statement. The bank explained that higher energy and commodity price could see a sizeable increase to inflation forecasts in the May report. In their Financial Stability report the bank urged borrowers to prepare for an increase in rates, which was a further signal from the bank. Even though the meeting showed a bank that is turning the page, the statement also revealed very similar conditionality such as incoming wage and inflation data. Following the meeting, markets have a bit of an overreaction by pricing in a >80% chance of a rate hike at the May meeting but was later pushed back to <30%. Given the importance of wage data, and since that is only release on the 18th of May, the most likely meeting for a first hike is the June meeting. Westpac investment bank agrees with our take with the bank expecting a 15bsp lift off in June, followed by 25bsp hikes in July, August, Oct and Nov. Even though this confirms our fundamental bullish bias, the >14 hikes priced by end 2023 means risks of lower repricing is building. 2. Idiosyncratic Drivers & Intermarket Analysis Apart from the RBA, there are 3 drivers we’re watching for the med-term outlook: Recovery – unlike other nations where growth & inflation is expected to slow, Australia is expected to see recovery, mostly thanks to stimulus in China China – With the PBoC & CCP stepping up monetary and fiscal stimulus, any recovery in China bodes well for Australia (China accounts for 40% of Australian exports). It also means the current virus situation in China posesshort-term downside risks for AUD. The AUKUS defence pact could see retaliation against Aussie goods and is worth keeping on the radar as well Commodities – Iron Ore (31%), Coal (14%) and LNG (10%) is more than 50% of Aussie exports, with rising prices giving the AUD huge support from terms of trade. If commodities remain supported it remains a support for AUD, but of course also means any sizeable corrections would weigh on the AUD, which means geopolitical and China demand developments remain focus points. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the AUD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the AUD. 4. CFTC Analysis Quite strange positioning change for the AUD with Leverage Funds trimming net-shorts by a chunky amount but Asset Managers showing a whopping build up in net-short contracts. The shift in Asset Manager positioning could explain the reluctance of the AUD to make any real progress despite very positive China developments. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That does not change the bullish outlook for the USD in the med-term but means that we would wait for pullbacks before initiating new longs with price at new cycle highs. 4. The Week Ahead The main event for the week ahead will no doubt be the FOMC meeting, but we’ll also get ISM PMIs as well as the April jobs print coming our way. For the FOMC, we think the Fed has set themselves a very high hawkish bar going into the meeting. STIR markets are pricing in 3 back-to-back 50bsp hikes, as well as an earlier start to QT ($95bn p/m). On the language side, recent Fed speak has seen even the doves find their inner hawks by talking up very aggressive policy tightening. So, with all of that as the baseline going into the meeting, it means the Fed would need to hike 75bsp and up the expected QT pace to really surprise markets. With the USD and Yields at cycle highs and equities at cycle lows, that increases the chances of some sell-the-fact reactions. This would be our preferred strategy for the USD going into the week. Then we also have the data where the ISM PMI data will be closely watched for further clues of whether growth is slowing faster than expected. On the jobs side, the impact of the NFP will most likely be dictated by the outcome of the FOMC decision. If the Fed manages to surprise on the hawkish side (seems unlikely) a beat in jobs won’t do much to change that, but a miss can certainly do a lot to stir the pot (even more so if the Fed decision is interpreted as ‘less hawkish’.
by thunderpips
2
A Detailed Road Map for Buy and Sell Entries in Current ChannelAUDUSD has been moving in a wide horizontal range since 2021 autumn. The price has recently dropped from the resistance level of 0.7600 and is approaching to a support area of 0.7000. From 0.7000 level, we can observe that prices have many times bounced up by forming three strong daily bullish candles, immediately breaking and retesting the next resistance level of 0.7100 before moving up to 0.7260 area. Therefore, once the price has reached 0.7000 area, we will carefully observe for strong daily bullish candles and then a break of 0.7100 level. After 0.7100 level is clearly broken, we will prepare our buy entries to capture the retest of 0.7100 level and set our buy target at next resistance area of 0.7260. However, a clear break of 0.7000 support level will invalidate this buy setup. Therefore, it is important to wait for a strong bullish momentum first instead of trying to catch the bottom. From 0.7260 area, we will switch to look for sell entries because we expect another retest of 0.7000 support level before price can reverse back to a bullish trend, given that this horizontal channel still holds.
by NicoBeau_Capital
AUDUSD a bearish continuation? 🦐AUDUSD on the 4h chart is currently testing a weekly support around the 0.73500 price area. The price after the recent high at the 0.76500 started a downtrend with lower lows and lower highs that can continue if the break of support will happen. We can notice how the market after the last bounce over the area retest the 0.382 Fibonacci level and turned again for a new test of the support area. How can i approach this scenario? We will wait for the EU market open and for a potential break of structure, in that case, i will check for a nice short order according to the Plancton's academy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Short
by InkyGrip
1
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their April meeting, the RBA took a slightly more hawkish stance by removing their reference to ‘patience’ in terms of policy tightening. With the bank taking a sanguine view of rising price pressures, the statement did reveal a growing concern for inflation with 10 references to ‘inflation’ in the statement. The bank explained that higher energy and commodity price could see a sizeable increase to inflation forecasts in the May report. In their Financial Stability report the bank urged borrowers to prepare for an increase in rates, which was a further signal from the bank. Even though the meeting showed a bank that is turning the page, the statement also revealed very similar conditionality such as incoming wage and inflation data. Following the meeting, markets have a bit of an overreaction by pricing in a >80% chance of a rate hike at the May meeting but was later pushed back to <30%. Given the importance of wage data, and since that is only release on the 18th of May, the most likely meeting for a first hike is the June meeting. Westpac investment bank agrees with our take with the bank expecting a 15bsp lift off in June, followed by 25bsp hikes in July, August, Oct and Nov. Even though this confirms our fundamental bullish bias, the >14 hikes priced by end 2023 means risks of lower repricing is building. 2. Idiosyncratic Drivers & Intermarket Analysis Apart from the RBA, there are 3 drivers we’re watching for the med-term outlook: Recovery – unlike other nations where growth & inflation is expected to slow, Australia is expected to see recovery, mostly thanks to stimulus in China China – With the PBoC & CCP stepping up monetary and fiscal stimulus, any recovery in China bodes well for Australia (China accounts for 40% of Australian exports). It also means the current virus situation in China posesshort-term downside risks for AUD. The AUKUS defence pact could see retaliation against Aussie goods and is worth keeping on the radar as well Commodities – Iron Ore (31%), Coal (14%) and LNG (10%) is more than 50% of Aussie exports, with rising prices giving the AUD huge support from terms of trade. If commodities remain supported it remains a support for AUD, but of course also means any sizeable corrections would weigh on the AUD, which means geopolitical and China demand developments remain focus points. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the AUD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the AUD. 4. CFTC Analysis Quite strange positioning change for the AUD with Leverage Funds trimming net-shorts by a chunky amount but Asset Managers showing a whopping build up in net-short contracts. The shift in Asset Manager positioning could explain the reluctance of the AUD to make any real progress despite very positive China developments. 5. The Week Ahead The focus in the week ahead will turn to the upcoming RBA policy decision, as well as China developments and commodities. For the RBA, markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25bsp hike at next week’s meeting after the Q1 CPI saw all three inflation measures push above the bank’s target range between 2%-3%. With CPI reaching its highest levels in two decades one can understand the reaction in STIR markets, with some participants calling for the possibility of a 15bsp, 25bsp and some even look for a 40bsp hike next week. We think there is a higher probability that the bank chooses to wait until they receive the next quarterly wage price index on the 18th of May. There is also political optics which might see them stay patient as the Federal Election takes place on the 21st of May (and no politician would want to have rates hiked for the first time in quite a while three weeks before people head to the polls). Thus, with all of that in mind we think the bank will want to stay patient, which could open up some downside risk for the AUD in the short-term. However, if they decide to come out guns blazing with a 40bsp hike that could provide a catalyst to get back into AUDCAD longs. On the China side, all eyes will be on further stimulus promises and efforts from the CCP or PBoC (which should be supportive for the AUD, even though this past week it hasn’t been enough to support the Antipode). Furthermore, the classic risk sentiment correlation has come back with a vengeance these past two weeks, which means overall risk sentiment and equity price action might be taking back the limelight from commodities. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That does not change the bullish outlook for the USD in the med-term but means that we would wait for pullbacks before initiating new longs with price at new cycle highs. 4. The Week Ahead The main event for the week ahead will no doubt be the FOMC meeting, but we’ll also get ISM PMIs as well as the April jobs print coming our way. For the FOMC, we think the Fed has set themselves a very high hawkish bar going into the meeting. STIR markets are pricing in 3 back-to-back 50bsp hikes, as well as an earlier start to QT ($95bn p/m). On the language side, recent Fed speak has seen even the doves find their inner hawks by talking up very aggressive policy tightening. So, with all of that as the baseline going into the meeting, it means the Fed would need to hike 75bsp and up the expected QT pace to really surprise markets. With the USD and Yields at cycle highs and equities at cycle lows, that increases the chances of some sell-the-fact reactions. This would be our preferred strategy for the USD going into the week. Then we also have the data where the ISM PMI data will be closely watched for further clues of whether growth is slowing faster than expected. On the jobs side, the impact of the NFP will most likely be dictated by the outcome of the FOMC decision. If the Fed manages to surprise on the hawkish side (seems unlikely) a beat in jobs won’t do much to change that, but a miss can certainly do a lot to stir the pot (even more so if the Fed decision is interpreted as ‘less hawkish’.
by thunderpips
3
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis May 1st, 2022AUDUSD Bearish Idea Weekly Trend: Bearish Daily Trend: Bearish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: All timeframes are overall bearish and on the 4hour we are picking up momentum, it seems. Based on current price action the most likely scenario is that we continue with the trend and break support around 0.70000. We are definitely overextended and are due for a pullback but recent volume is mostly from DXY correlations. Trade scenario 2: For us to find structure on this pair we need price action to pull back to the 0.72500 resistance level and form a lower high. Look to continue bearish if this happens.
Short
by ForexLeague
AUD/USD Outlook (25 April 2022)AUD/USD continues its downtrend after testing 0.7450. Due to the DXY strenght, the AUD/USD has strongly broken the 0.7300 and 0.7200 support levels. Currently at 0.7169, look for continual downward move towards 0.7100 in the short term. However, watch out for AUD CPI data to be released on Wednesday morning. Strong CPI data could trigger the RBA to increase rates, a policy action that they are considering but have held off since. At 0.7100, if RBA rate increase is anticipiated, look for a bounce from this support level in the medium term.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis April 24th, 2022AUDUSD Bearish Idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bearish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: We are looking strongly bearish here on AUDUSD and the support level we’re at around 0.72500 is the make or break zone here. It is more than likely that AU will continue bearish as it is showing no signs of slowing down. Ideally, we can spot a lower high below 0.72500 to enter short on. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU for long scenarios we really need to see reactions now at this support level (0.72500). If we can spot some good structure and a bullish 4hour trend then we will be interested in entering long.
Short
by ForexLeague
Limited upside seen on AUDUSDOn the higher time frame, prices are testing key resistance and we could be seeing limited upside here. On the H1 time frame, a pullback to test the support area at 0.7420, in line with the 100% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement provides an opportunity to play the bounce to our resistance target at 0.74800. This resistance target lines up with the 78.6% fibonacci extension level. Ichimoku cloud is showing signs of bullish pressure as well in line with our bullish bias.
Long
by shermzT
AUD/USD (Bat Pattern) 1HRPAIR: AUDUSD TRADE: BAT PATTERN POSITION: SELL TIME-FRAME: 1HR -------------------- I forgot to publish this idea and we're at market for a nice Bat Pattern here on the AUDUSD. Looking for a little move towards the downside into double targets here on the Aussie. <3 -------------------- Truly grateful to be here and share my thoughts with everyone. Always appreciate your thoughts and what you have to say and share, let's experience Trading in a positive way, together. Time is precious, be kind to everyone and be safe in the markets, always. "See yourself as love and only have that, to give away." -------------------- Phil C.
Short
by Phil_C
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their April meeting, the RBA took a slightly more hawkish stance by removing their reference to ‘patience’ in terms of policy tightening. With the bank taking a sanguine view of rising price pressures, the statement did reveal a growing concern for inflation with 10 references to ‘inflation’ in the statement. The bank explained that higher energy and commodity price could see a sizeable increase to inflation forecasts in the May report. In their Financial Stability report the bank urged borrowers to prepare for an increase in rates, which was a further signal from the bank. Even though the meeting showed a bank that is turning the page, the statement also revealed very similar conditionality such as incoming wage and inflation data. Following the meeting, markets have a bit of an overreaction by pricing in a >80% chance of a rate hike at the May meeting but was later pushed back to <30%. Given the importance of wage data, and since that is only release on the 18th of May, the most likely meeting for a first hike is the June meeting. Westpac investment bank agrees with our take with the bank expecting a 15bsp lift off in June, followed by 25bsp hikes in July, August, Oct and Nov. Even though this confirms our fundamental bullish bias, the >14 hikes priced by end 2023 means risks of lower repricing is building. 2. Idiosyncratic Drivers & Intermarket Analysis Apart from the RBA, there are 3 drivers we’re watching for the med-term outlook: Recovery – unlike other nations where growth & inflation is expected to slow, Australia is expected to see recovery, mostly thanks to stimulus in China China – With the PBoC & CCP stepping up monetary and fiscal stimulus, any recovery in China bodes well for Australia (China accounts for 40% of Australian exports). It also means the current virus situation in China posesshort-term downside risks for AUD. The AUKUS defence pact could see retaliation against Aussie goods and is worth keeping on the radar as well Commodities – Iron Ore (31%), Coal (14%) and LNG (10%) is more than 50% of Aussie exports, with rising prices giving the AUD huge support from terms of trade. If commodities remain supported it remains a support for AUD, but of course also means any sizeable corrections would weigh on the AUD, which means geopolitical and China demand developments remain focus points. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the AUD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the AUD. 4. CFTC Analysis It’s taken many weeks of stretched positioning, but AUD net-shorts have continued to unwind and have moved out of stretched territory. After a decent run higher, price action has been looking stretched, which means we’ll prefer deeper pullbacks before initiating new med-term AUD longs. 5. The Week Ahead There are no economic data highlights for the week ahead, which means China and commodities will arguably be the main drivers. With the PBoC set to meet on Wednesday, any further promises of support will be important to watch for the AUD. Consensus is looking for the PBoC to ease the MLF and LPR, with some also looking for another RRR cut as well. Some analysts have argued that the competitive rise US yields versus Chinese counterparts might see a more patient PBoC as CN10Y fell below US10Y for the first time in 12 years last week. Any hesitation from the PBoC to step up to the plate could be a negative for the AUD. For commodities, the geopolitical tensions have seen commodity prices surge and have given Australia’s terms of trade a solid boost. As commodities have been supported by geopolitical stress and stimulus hopes from China, anything that dents that optimism and sees mean reversion in commodities will be important to watch for the AUD. This also means that the AUD might counterintuitively trade mixed on geopolitical de-escalations depending on how commodities react. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That does not change the bullish outlook for the USD in the med-term but means that we would wait for pullbacks before initiating new longs with price at new cycle highs. 4. The Week Ahead The week will be thin in terms of US economic data, with the Philly Fed Business Index and S&P Global Flash PMIs the main highlights. The focus here for the USD will once again be on the growth side, where another fasterthan-expected slowdown could be supportive for the USD given its usual inverse correlation to global growth expectations. In the event that growth data surprise higher though, we should not be surprised if we see the USD push lower afterwards, but we should also not get complacent in the growth-inspired reactions in the USD given how stretched prices have been. What that means is that we need to be mindful of the possibility that current USD bulls take some profit as we push into major and key 2020 resistance levels (2-year highs and new cycle highs). As a growth hedge, the current environment of slowing growth and a hawkish Fed bodes well for the USD, which means the med-term bullish bias remains intact, but the risk to reward of chasing it at the highs is not very attractive right now, and means patience is not a bad idea right now.
by thunderpips