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Aud-usd

AUD/USD (Bat Pattern) 1HRPAIR: AUDUSD TRADE: BAT PATTERN POSITION: SELL TIME-FRAME: 1HR -------------------- I forgot to publish this idea and we're at market for a nice Bat Pattern here on the AUDUSD. Looking for a little move towards the downside into double targets here on the Aussie. <3 -------------------- Truly grateful to be here and share my thoughts with everyone. Always appreciate your thoughts and what you have to say and share, let's experience Trading in a positive way, together. Time is precious, be kind to everyone and be safe in the markets, always. "See yourself as love and only have that, to give away." -------------------- Phil C.
Short
by Phil_C
AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their April meeting, the RBA took a slightly more hawkish stance by removing their reference to ‘patience’ in terms of policy tightening. With the bank taking a sanguine view of rising price pressures, the statement did reveal a growing concern for inflation with 10 references to ‘inflation’ in the statement. The bank explained that higher energy and commodity price could see a sizeable increase to inflation forecasts in the May report. In their Financial Stability report the bank urged borrowers to prepare for an increase in rates, which was a further signal from the bank. Even though the meeting showed a bank that is turning the page, the statement also revealed very similar conditionality such as incoming wage and inflation data. Following the meeting, markets have a bit of an overreaction by pricing in a >80% chance of a rate hike at the May meeting but was later pushed back to <30%. Given the importance of wage data, and since that is only release on the 18th of May, the most likely meeting for a first hike is the June meeting. Westpac investment bank agrees with our take with the bank expecting a 15bsp lift off in June, followed by 25bsp hikes in July, August, Oct and Nov. Even though this confirms our fundamental bullish bias, the >14 hikes priced by end 2023 means risks of lower repricing is building. 2. Idiosyncratic Drivers & Intermarket Analysis Apart from the RBA, there are 3 drivers we’re watching for the med-term outlook: Recovery – unlike other nations where growth & inflation is expected to slow, Australia is expected to see recovery, mostly thanks to stimulus in China China – With the PBoC & CCP stepping up monetary and fiscal stimulus, any recovery in China bodes well for Australia (China accounts for 40% of Australian exports). It also means the current virus situation in China posesshort-term downside risks for AUD. The AUKUS defence pact could see retaliation against Aussie goods and is worth keeping on the radar as well Commodities – Iron Ore (31%), Coal (14%) and LNG (10%) is more than 50% of Aussie exports, with rising prices giving the AUD huge support from terms of trade. If commodities remain supported it remains a support for AUD, but of course also means any sizeable corrections would weigh on the AUD, which means geopolitical and China demand developments remain focus points. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the AUD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the AUD. 4. CFTC Analysis It’s taken many weeks of stretched positioning, but AUD net-shorts have continued to unwind and have moved out of stretched territory. After a decent run higher, price action has been looking stretched, which means we’ll prefer deeper pullbacks before initiating new med-term AUD longs. 5. The Week Ahead There are no economic data highlights for the week ahead, which means China and commodities will arguably be the main drivers. With the PBoC set to meet on Wednesday, any further promises of support will be important to watch for the AUD. Consensus is looking for the PBoC to ease the MLF and LPR, with some also looking for another RRR cut as well. Some analysts have argued that the competitive rise US yields versus Chinese counterparts might see a more patient PBoC as CN10Y fell below US10Y for the first time in 12 years last week. Any hesitation from the PBoC to step up to the plate could be a negative for the AUD. For commodities, the geopolitical tensions have seen commodity prices surge and have given Australia’s terms of trade a solid boost. As commodities have been supported by geopolitical stress and stimulus hopes from China, anything that dents that optimism and sees mean reversion in commodities will be important to watch for the AUD. This also means that the AUD might counterintuitively trade mixed on geopolitical de-escalations depending on how commodities react. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That does not change the bullish outlook for the USD in the med-term but means that we would wait for pullbacks before initiating new longs with price at new cycle highs. 4. The Week Ahead The week will be thin in terms of US economic data, with the Philly Fed Business Index and S&P Global Flash PMIs the main highlights. The focus here for the USD will once again be on the growth side, where another fasterthan-expected slowdown could be supportive for the USD given its usual inverse correlation to global growth expectations. In the event that growth data surprise higher though, we should not be surprised if we see the USD push lower afterwards, but we should also not get complacent in the growth-inspired reactions in the USD given how stretched prices have been. What that means is that we need to be mindful of the possibility that current USD bulls take some profit as we push into major and key 2020 resistance levels (2-year highs and new cycle highs). As a growth hedge, the current environment of slowing growth and a hawkish Fed bodes well for the USD, which means the med-term bullish bias remains intact, but the risk to reward of chasing it at the highs is not very attractive right now, and means patience is not a bad idea right now.
by thunderpips
AUDUSD Potential Bullish Reversal | 18th April 2022Price is abiding by the ascending trendline. We see the potential for bullish bounce from our buy entry level of 0.73514 in line with 61.8% FIbonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension towards our take profit level of 0.74756 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price might break through the key support level and head towards the stop loss level of 0.72848 which lines up with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis April 17th, 2022AUDUSD Bearish Idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bullish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: Higher timeframes are bullish here on AU while the 4hour timeframe has been in a steady downtrend. We can see price action near our 0.74000 support formed a descending triangle, which looks to be breaking bearishly now. Look for a lower high below 0.74000 with strong bearish setups to enter on. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU bullish again we need to see a break back above 0.74000 first. The key to entering long here is structure. Look for a 4hour higher low above our most recent lower high.
Short
by ForexLeague
AUDUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 14th April 2022On the H4 timeframe, we see the potential for a bullish continuation from our buy entry level at 0.74272 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our take profit level at 0.75338 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternatively, if price breaks through the key support level, price might drop to to the stop loss level of 0.73633 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
1
AUDUSD Potential Bullish Pressure | 13th April 2022We see the potential for a bullish continuation from our pivot level at 0.74272 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our take profit level at 0.75338 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is trading at support level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
AUDUSD Potential Bullish Pressure | 13th April 2022We see the potential for a bullish continuation from our pivot level at 0.74272 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our take profit level at 0.75338 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is trading at support level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
⭕️BUY AUDUSD at the right place ❗️ ⭕️You see the analysis of the Australian dollar against the US dollar in four hours(AUDUSD , H4)🔎 🔰BUY Limit AUDUSD at 0.74000 ✅TP ; 0.76500 ❌SL ; 0.73450 🔰Due to the breaking of the four-hour downtrend line (white line), we are waiting for the price pullback to the trend line areas. The range from which the price can return and resume its uptrend is indicated by two support lines (orange) and the support range (purple)🧐 The target is also placed in the purple resistance range❗️ The profit and loss limits are specified in the image👌 ⚠️⚠️Please observe capital management and open a low volume transaction❗️❗️ I hope this analysis is useful for you🙏🏻🌹 📌Please introduce the "TRADER STREET" to your friends 🙏🏻 _______________________📈TRADER STREET📉________________________
Long
by TRADER_STREET
1
AUDUSD 4hour Analysis April 10th, 2022AUDUSD Bullish Idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bullish 4Hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: AU is currently experiencing a pullback that we’ve been waiting for. Price action is falling to our 0.74000 zone where we are looking for structure formation. Look for strong rejection around 0.74000 support followed by confirming bullish candlestick setups to enter long on. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider AU full bearish we need to see a break of support around 0.74000 with a lower high below.
Long
by ForexLeague
EURUSD H4 Potential Bullish Bounce | 8th April 2022We see the potential for a bounce from our 1st support level at 1.08538 in line with 138% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance level at 1.09521 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is near support level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
1
AUDUSD on a bullish move 🦐AUDUSD on the 4h chart after the recent start a retracement move until the 0.71700 area. At the beginning of the downtrend, I can see an attempt of the price to break the resistance level at the 0.73600 over the 0.618 Fibonacci level, with the following bear pressure coming in that pushes lower the price with a consequent break of the bear flag and the daily ascending trendline. How can we approach this scenario? Now the market pounced over a minor support and after a large. number of red candle i can expect some retracement to the upside. We will wait for the European market open and check if the price will break above the support area, in that case, i ll check for a possible long entry according to the Plancton's academy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Long
by InkyGrip
6
AUDUSD - CURRENT SITUATION AND FUNDA & TECHNICAL BIAS There is no important news for AUD today and the Australian dollar is following the market sentiment today. Also, only the Factory Orders m / m for the US Dollar is due to be released today in the New York Session. - DXY is currently at 98.65 LEVEL. Also the AUD FEATURE stays at 0.7523 LEVEL. The AUDUSD PRICE rests on DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Therefore, the PRICE may be slightly UP. - Currently STOCKS are getting somewhat DOWN. And VIX is getting a bit UP. Also COMMODITIES are becoming UP. It's something special. Also the BONDS PRICES are slightly RED. Also BONDS SPREADS are becoming UP. There is currently no CLEAR DIRECTION in the MARKET. Maybe today's because of Monday. Currently the market has a NEUTRAL BIAS. - Technically the AUDUSD PRICE can be quite a PULL BACK today. But AUDUSD may continue to rise in price. There is a very important RESISTANCE above. - AUDUSD PRICE can drop to 0.7489 LEVEL before UP. Then you can UP to LEVEL 0.7621. The reason for this is that the Australian data continues to be very, very strongly reported. But according to the MARKET SENTIMENT it can be DOWN again if a RISK OFF SENTIMENT comes.
by benny_marshall
1
AUDUSD potential for bearish dip! | 31st March 2022Prices are consoliating in a potential double top. We see the potential for dip from our sell entry at 0.75126 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 100% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 0.73911 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Divergence is spotted on RSI, further supporting our bearish bias. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet