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AUDUSD possible expansionPrice has been showing bearish orderflow until recently, where it broke our strong high with momentum. This thus invalidated the properties of a bearish flow, giving us a shift in market structure from bearish to bullish trend. Price previously left behind a demand zone that it has currently retraced to and mitigated. On lower timeframe, the same case holds as price portrayed a shift in market structure after it had tapped our 4h demand. This then gives us an opportunity jump on the possible higher timeframe expansion via this confirmation entry on lower timeftrame to take out our weak swing high
Long
by BlackTygaTrades
24
AUDJPY: Interesting zone, continue up or Double top reversal?We're at the top end of the range for this pair, I am expecting BoJ to start backing its currency. I've recently noticed some negative correlation between USDJPY and the other XXXJPY crosses, so where USDJPY falls the others have been more bullish. That said if the BoJ get involved it will tank all of them. I'm not 100% what I really think will happen here, I think the Friday pinbar suggests there's more upward momentum, but will be very cautious if I trade as anything against the Yen (@which is staggeringly weak against everything). I'm opting for a move up and would keep a tight and chasing SL in place.
Long
by Finchcliffe
1
AUDJPY: Thoughts and Analysis Today's focus: AUDJPY Pattern – HL Continuation Support – 96.10 Resistance – 97.52 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at the AUDJPY on the daily chart. Today's video asks if the AUDJPY will continue its continuation pattern. We have run over the price action that drew us to this setup and what we want to see to give us confirmation. We have also run over warnings from price that could invalidate the setup. If we see buyer confirmation, we will then look for a test or break of 97.52 resistance. This could suggest that the current upleg is becoming a new short-term trend. Good trading.
Long
by Eightcap
AN turn lower as previously mentioned..now..I believe it would have more downside, but do take note of the minor support on the daily and could bounce to pullback before going down further. **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
1
✨ AUDUSD: Curve Analysis (50m)✨TP5 @ 0.6485 TP4 @ 0.6470 TP3 @ 0.6425 TP2 @ 0.6395 TP1 @ 0.6350 BLO1 @ 0.6310 ⏳(moderate) BLO2 @ 0.6285 ⏳(conservative) ADDITIONAL INFO: 💵 You can DCA these Buy Orders 📈 Or just place the conservative position 🔑 BLO = Buy Limit Order DCA = Dollar-Cost Average PA = Price Action PB = Pull Back SLO = Sell Limit Order ⏳= PENDING NOTE: Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy in which a trader splits their position size into smaller position sizes at different price points. This strategy is designed to reduce the risk of buying at the wrong time and to lower the average cost per unit of currency.
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
AUDUSD Analysis 10-11-23The AUDUSD broke through from the upward trendline and the 50% retracement level due to the strength of the DXY overnight. The RBA monetary policy statement released earlier today did little in terms of price volatility as it reinforced the view that the RBA hiked rates due to the recent increase in inflation growth. As the AUDUSD currently trades under the 61.8% fib retracement level (0.6365), and further recovery in strength in the DXY is anticipated, look for the AUDUSD to trade down to the key support area of 0.6290. However, it could be likely that the AUDUSD could first retrace briefly or consolidate along this level before trading lower.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
2
AUDCAD Rejection on the 1D MA200. Sell.Our last signal on the AUDCAD pair (see chart below) was a dip buy within the width of the multi-month Channel Down: The Channel Up is adjusted as on Tuesday, the pair got rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) forming the new Lower High. As the same time, the 1D RSI got rejected on its 5-month Resistance Zone and today the sell signal is confirmed by the formation of the 1D MACD Bearish Cross. Sell and aim for a -4.14% (previous Lower High rejection decline) drop at 0.854500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
AudNzd weakness is coming...AN should be making a turn down, already showing signs...Watch for it. **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
3
High Stakes: RBA rate decision vs. Melbourne Cup We are about 8 hours away from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision. That decision is due on Tuesday at 2:30 pm (local Aussie time), a couple of hours before the country's biggest horse race, the Melbourne Cup ($8 million in prize money) is set to take place. But perhaps the more exciting match ups will be occurring in the forex market. Currently, the market is thinking there is a 70% chance of a 25-basis points hike because of the RBA governor's rhetoric that the bank would "not hesitate to raise the cash rate further" if inflation was higher than expected (which it was in its last quarterly reading). The 30% chance of no hike is possibly driven by concerns about mortgage stress in the country after the post-COVID 12 cash rate increases. On the flip side of some potential AUD trades, we have expectations for the US Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) enacting a 25-basis points cut by June next year. Weaker-than-expected NFP figures in the U.S. last Friday bolstered expectations that the Fed was done with its tightening campaign and pulled the AUD/USD up past 0.64900 from 0.64400. This makes me question whether the upside to the AUD/USD is all played out. Moments after the interest rate announcement will be crucial to see which direction the market wants to take. If the RBA does enact a hike today, concerns about mortgage stress in Australia might induce the pair to revisit some of the levels the pair traversed last Friday during its climb just before market close.
by BlackBull_Markets
AUDUSD - Daily Timeframe Analysis (ICT)I'm anticipating price to head towards the Internal Buyside Liquidity in the form of Equal Highs above as a first objective. This bias comes from External Liquidity being raided, with a manipulative move that took it out a second time. A large Daily Sibi was left in its wake, but what was interesting is that price came into, and closed within the Sibi on Thursday, and on Friday's NFP it shot down to take out the previous day's low before coming back into the Sibi with a bullish close. In my eyes this is indicative of price wanting to head towards Buyside Liquidity before a HTF continuation to the downside. As for narrative, I would anticipate price breaking through the Sibi, finding resistance possibly somewhere within the long-tailed Daily Wick and Trendline Buyside Liquidity above. Consequently, returning back into the Daily Sibi and using it as support before moving higher to the objective. This analysis is based on Smart Money accumulating more shorts at relevant zones of Buyside Liquidity and Inefficiencies. A POI for a reversal back to the downside will be based on how price moves at either one of the annotations above my first objective. - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
1
AUDUSD: Thoughts and Analysis pre-RBA Today's focus: AUDUSD Pattern – Range /Distribution? Support – .6287 Resistance – .6520 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at the AUDUSD on the daily chart. Today, we have run over the AUDUSD as price continues to test resistance after Friday's fantastic rally after US employment data sunk the USD. Technically price looks good. We have run over price action we want to see to show a continuation in the AUDUSD. Two factors are the USD strength and the RBA rate decision. Rates are expected to rise tomorrow, but will this be it, or will the door be left open? The USD momentum change is another key. If this trend continues, we will look for the AUDUSD to contnue its current trend. We do want to see a new higher low to show a solid trend structure. Good trading.
Long
by Eightcap
EurAud more downside to come But...But do take note of the key support area now, bias is still on short side. Likewise I am also bearish on GbpAud! **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
AUDCHF: Fakeout or Breakout?We can see we've just broken out of my channel top after a strong bullish move, but this isn't the first time and we're hitting strong resistance. Swissie has been weak of late, unlike the Aussie, so I believe this can go either way. I'll be looking at longs around 0.589 if resistance is broken, but we may well fall back first. If we fall back below 0.578 then I'll be waiting for the triple bottom around 0.561 before looking to go long. Obviously this could all be a fakeout and we'll be back in the channel, but I do think it's risky shorting down hear unless it's for a quick scalp as it definitely looks like a good double bottom is already in play. Both of these currencies are gold dependent for different reasons (Aussie exporting it, Swissie holding it), and Aussie is doing well because gold is. I'm expecting a c0ontinuation of gold strength as per my recent idea, so probably expecting this pair could keep flying?
Long
by Finchcliffe
AUDJPY Buy the pull-back.The AUDJPY pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern that is currently rising on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A recently formed Bullish Cross on the 1D MA50, calls for a potential short-term pull-back similar to the August 24 MACD Bullish Cross. We will wait for that opportunity near the 1D MA200 and buy, targeting Resistance 1 at 97.675. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
RBA meeting playbook – a 25bp hike is the call Having been on hold since June the RBA should hike by 25bp to get the cash rate to 4.35%. We see a 60% chance of a hike priced into interest rate futures, with the market having a high conviction that if they don’t hike next week then they will almost certainly in December. 21 of 24 economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) are calling for the hike. The doves do have a case for the RBA keeping rates on hold, but the case to hike seems stronger., with Aussie economic data consistently beating expectations since early October. This should culminate in the RBA increasing its inflation forecasts for Dec-23 and June-24 by 25bp, with its trimmed mean CPI estimate likely revised higher by around 50bp. Given Q2 GDP came in 50bp above the RBA’s forecasts we should see its growth measures increase as well. One can argue that leaving rates on hold would risk the bank being seen as getting behind the inflation curve, and we can see market pricing of 5-year inflation expectations rising to 2.81% - approaching the highest levels since 2011. Some have also focused on Treasurer Jim Chalmers recent comments that the Q3 CPI print did not represent a “material” worsening in the inflation outlook, and by leaving rates on hold it could be seen as a sign of reduced central bank independence. The RBA to review the stress on households We can look ahead to the upcoming bank earnings reports with WBC (6 Nov), NAB (9 Nov) and ANZ (13 Nov) and review their asset quality given lending rates have increased so rapidly. In the prior trading updates, there was no clear evidence that borrowers were facing broad difficulties. In fact, projections that total scheduled P&I payments will push to 9.75% of household disposable income in 2024, suggest servicing this debt is still manageable. We also see over 40% of households are ahead on mortgage payments and have enough savings to cushion a further increase. In terms of volumes, APRA’s September lending data showed total gross loans and advances grew 0.7% m/m in September, with household lending growth +0.3% m/m and business growth +1.2% m/m. Credit card volumes increased 1.2%. And with house prices still on the rise, these are factors that will lean the RBA towards a hike. The RBA will be cognisant of the impact a further lift in the cash rate will have on households and businesses – but while some will be negatively impacted and undergo real stress, on the whole borrowers should be able to readily absorb more hikes. Trading the RBA meeting Given market expectations and pricing, should the RBA leave rates on hold but retain a hawkish bias, then we should see the AUDUSD drop 50 pips or so off the bat, with a solid rally likely seen in the AUS200. With the base case being we see a 25bp hike while maintaining a tightening bias, then all things being equal the AUD should find good buyers, with AUDUSD spiking 30-40 pips. AUDNZD has been the most sensitive to interest rate differentials, as we see here in the AUS-NZ 2-year forward rate differentials. If the RBA hike and imply more then AUDNZD should break the recent highs of 1.0940. In fact, on a simple rates model the AUDNZD cross should be trading closer to 1.1050. AUDUSD is more of a risk proxy than a rates play, taking direction from S&P500 futures and the HK50 index, but the setup is looking more compelling for longs. I prefer to play this from a momentum standpoint and wait for the close above 0.6445, for a potential move into 0.6600. EURAUD, AUDCHF and AUDJPY are also risk proxies and have a good relationship with the VIX index. Granted, if the RBA hikes, then we will likely see a pop in the AUD, but after a short period traders will revert to taking its direction from S&P500 futures and cross-asset volatility. Looking at AUD 1-week implied (option) volatility (vol) we see vols are not showing any real signs option market makers are expecting a significant change in the trading conditions next week. That said, given the split pricing for Tuesday, we could see some rapid-fire moves around the announcement and that is a risk traders need to manage.
Long
by Pepperstone
AUDUSD to complete bearish orderflow?After consecutive breaks of weak lower lows with lower highs holding strong, a bearish 4h orderflow was evident. Price has been retracing and retesting supply zones up until the latest break of structure(which was too weak). Price has invalidated our latest supply zone and could be striving to reach for a previously unmitigated extreme supply with a huge imbalance below it. This then signals a potential complex pullback where price could use the extreme supply together with internal liquidity to fuel it's bearish expansion to take out the recent weak swing low. Fundamentals also forecast potential dollar strength gain on Friday afternoon, which is a confirmation of the analysis as it'd lead to a drop in most if not all dollar pairs.
Short
by BlackTygaTrades
7
GBPAUD SELL | Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileHello Traders, here is the full analysis. Watch strong action at the current levels for SELL. GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity GBPAUD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
Short
by TheGrove
16