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Inflation Symphony: Harmonizing AUDNZD's Dance with RBNZIn today's trading session, our attention is on AUDNZD, with a keen interest in a buying opportunity around the 1.07900 zone. Having broken out of a downtrend, the pair is currently in a correction phase, edging closer to the retrace area at 1.07800 support and resistance. A potential target could be the monthly resistance at 1.08700. Now, delving into the fundamental landscape, we turn to the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on January 23rd. Let's examine the recent CPI data to gauge potential implications. In the previous releases, we observe a trend of declining inflation: Oct 16, 2023: 1.8% Jul 18, 2023: 1.1% Apr 19, 2023: 1.2% Jan 24, 2023: 1.4% Oct 17, 2022: 2.2% Comparing these figures, there is a consistent downward trajectory in inflation. The expected CPI on January 23rd is 0.5%, indicating a potential continuation of subdued inflation. These numbers suggest a dovish outlook for the RBNZ, as persistently low inflation may prompt policymakers to maintain or adopt an accommodative stance. This, in turn, could impact the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), potentially weakening it. As traders evaluate this AUDNZD opportunity, it's essential to consider both technical and fundamental aspects for a comprehensive perspective. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
AUD/USD, NZD/USD hint at a round of risk-offIf commodity FX is anything to go by, we could be in for a bout of risk-off. The yen and US dollar were the strongest majors, which saw AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY pull back from cycle highs and form bearish outside days alongside AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The fact that AUD/USD reversed at its 200-day average and closed beneath the 200-day EMA makes it likely the 2-day bounce from support we anticipated has run its course. And with NZD/USD hitting new cycle lows with a bearish engulfing day and closed beneath its 100/200-day EMAs likely brings 60c into mind for bears, and 65c for AUD/USD bears.
Short
by CityIndex
Potential swing trade long on AUD/USDLike NZD/USD, the Aussie is refusing to roll over despite a strong US inflation report. That is in itself a sign of strength. The daily chart is yet to see a close beneath the Q3 open, and the lows are holding above the 50-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci level. A bullish RSI divergence also formed from the oversold zone to suggest a swing low has formed or is near. The bias remains bullish above last week's low ad for an initial move to 0.6750 - a break above which assumes a move for 0.6800.
Long
by CityIndex
AUD bears eye break below 65c, but a bounce could be due firstRisk aversion reigns supreme, casting a dark cloud over AUD/USD just before today’s employment report drops. A stellar jobs report is unlikely to spark calls for an imminent RBA hike, but it might prompt some short covering on the Aussie. Besides, there are early signs of stability above the 65c zone with Wednesday’s lower wick, which saw a false break of the lower keltner band. Perhaps some mean reversions is due. Bulls could seek dips towards 65c with a stop below and initially target the 200-day MA – a break above which assumes a deeper retracement and relief rally for global stocks. However, given our bias for the US dollar remains bullish over the weeks ahead, bears may want to seek evidence of a swing high forming below 0.6650 before committing to fresh shorts. A break beneath 65c brings 0.6370 into focus.
Long
by CityIndex
AUDCHF - Wait For The Bears 🐻Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, On Daily: Left Chart AUDCHF is retesting a strong resistance zone so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes. On H1: Right Chart 📈 For the bears to take over, we need a momentum candle close below the last major lower in gray. 📉 Meanwhile , AUDCHF would be bullish, and can still trade higher inside the resistance or even break it higher. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
1
Euraud a pullback to be supported and bounce?Tradingview Ideas: Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Watching for this pullback on lower timeframe to play out and hold , then look to long Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
AUD/USD Shows Signs of Recovery Amidst Softening US DollarAUD/USD Shows Signs of Recovery Amidst Softening US Dollar The Australian Dollar is experiencing a mild recovery on Thursday, benefiting from a weakened US Dollar. The currency pair has managed to trim some losses, reclaiming levels above 0.6550. This article delves into the technical and fundamental aspects influencing the Australian Dollar's recent performance. Technical Analysis: From a technical standpoint, the price has undergone a retracement to a critical support zone around 0.6520/0.6525. Within this area, key levels include the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, along with the dynamic trendline of a potential bullish channel. This convergence of technical factors suggests the possibility of a bullish push-up in the near term. Fundamental Insights: On the macroeconomic front, Australian economic indicators present a mixed picture. Consumer Inflation Expectations remained stable at 4.5% in January, indicating a level of inflationary expectations among consumers. However, concerns arise as the number of employed workers unexpectedly declined, pointing towards potential challenges in the labor market and a loss of momentum. Conclusion: The Australian Dollar's recovery is underpinned by a softer US Dollar, offering traders an opportunity to reassess their positions. The technical analysis highlights a significant support zone, suggesting a potential bullish move. However, the mixed macroeconomic data, particularly the unexpected decline in employed workers, introduces an element of caution. Our preference Long positions above 0.64 with targets at 0.68 & 0.69 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
Buy AUDJPY Channel BreakoutBoJ not changing policy, intensified interest rate differential game: Comments from the country's monetary authorities suggest a new wave of pressure on the yen after three months of easing or ‘recharging’. With the Bank of Japan not changing policy, the yen is potentially under pressure from an intensified interest rate differential game. And this game promises to be more aggressive now than a year ago, as yield spreads between Japan and the US have widened for both short and long-term yields. The current higher interest rate environment is an opportunity for Japan to competitively devalue its currency to support national exporters, which it failed to do in the last decade in the era of zero interest rates. Price breaks the channel now, its good chance to buy now. Thank you
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
6
Examining Inflation Trends for AUDUSD Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.66800 zone, AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.66800 support and resistance area. Let's delve into the fundamental landscape, specifically examining the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The CPI figures released on December 12, 2023, showed a 3.1% change, matching the previous month's figure and slightly below the forecasted 3.2%. This indicates a relatively stable inflationary environment in the Australian economy. Comparing this with the preceding months' CPI data, we observe a consistent trend. The October 2023 data showed a 3.7% inflation rate, slightly higher than September's 3.6% and in line with expectations. However, in August 2023, there was a slight decrease, with inflation recorded at 3.2%, compared to the previous month's 3.3%. The most recent CPI data at 3.4% suggests a mild deceleration in inflation, aligning closely with market expectations. This information provides valuable insights for traders considering a selling opportunity in AUDUSD, as stable or slightly decreasing inflation may influence market sentiment and potential currency movements. Trade safe. Joe
Short
by JoeChampion
1