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AUDUSD - Wait For The Trigger 🏹Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, On Daily: Left Chart AUDUSD has been bearish but it is currently approaching a robust support zone so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. On H1: Right Chart 📈 For the bulls to take over, we need a momentum candle close below above the neckline highlighted in gray. 📉 Meanwhile, AUDUSD would be bearish short-term and can still trade lower inside the daily support. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
AUD/USD remains trapped beneath its 200-day EMAAUD/USD fell from the late-December high to mid-January low in a fairly straight line, so it is no surprise to see prices have consolidated. However, the consolidation cannot last forever so we're looking for its next directional. Given the Aussie has failed to rally despite 'good news' from China, perhaps a spell of bad news could send it lower. That, or a softer-than-expected inflation report on Wednesday. The daily chart shows the Aussie has repeatedly failed to post a daily close above its 200-day EMA, and has left a series of shooting star candles along the way. Bears could consider fading into retracements towards the 200-day EMA wit a stop well above it, and target the 0.6500 - 0.6520 support zone. AN RSI (2) above 90 could also help time a short trade as it could indicate a near-term top.
Short
by CityIndex
AUDUSD possible short, AUD weakness.The AUDUSD market is showing signs of weakness (in favor of the USD) after NFP news on Friday. Thursday reversal in London (as shown in the hourly chart) was a clear manipulation move taking the buy side liquidity from the Asian session. The daily is showing a bearish bias, breaching recent swing lows. We also can see that the swing lows from 11/2 and 12/7, were breached. The trade setup is to wait for a possible retracement towards the 0.618 or 0.786 Fib levels from the measurement of the impulse in the 1H after the NFP. Ideally, this setup will form either during the London or NY session for a possible move lower and continuation of the bearish bias. Initial target would be lows of Friday or lower low after a possible run of the liquidity below Friday's lows. This is a trade idea, for information purposes only. Trade at your own risk. If you decide to follow this idea, position yourself following your risk management plan.
Short
by dfgaviria
AUD weaknessAUD has been weak across the board and is giving potential opportunities to go short. In AUDCAD the Daily bias is bearish and could continue lower. The D chart presented us with a SWH with its 3rd candle lows being breached by today's price action. Ideally in the 1H, the chart will set itself up either in London (2am) or NY session (7am-9am) for a short after a possible run into liquidity stablished by highs of Feb 1st Asian session, which is standing right in the zone of the 0.618 and .786fib. This could be sell opportunity targeting Feb 1st lows.
Short
by dfgaviria
1
AUDJPY Bearish Stocks and potential downsidesHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring AUDJPY for a selling opportunity around 96.900 zone, AUDJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 96.900 support and resistance area. Fundamentally we would like to consider the current pressure on stocks. The Australian dollar is considered a commodity currency, meaning its value is influenced by commodity prices, particularly those of key Australian exports like iron ore and coal. When global stock markets are performing well, it tends to reflect positive investor sentiment and increased demand for commodities, which can lead to a stronger Australian dollar. As a result, AUD/JPY may show a tendency to move in tandem with global stock indices during periods of market optimism.
Short
by JoeChampion
5
AUDUSD: Technical Breakout Amid Fed's Powell WarningIn today's trading session, our focus is on AUDUSD, where we're eyeing a selling opportunity around the 0.65200 zone. Technically, AUDUSD has been in an uptrend, but there are indications of a potential breakout to the downside. If the price dips below the 0.65200 support level, we anticipate a retracement of the breakout towards lower levels. Adding a fundamental layer to our analysis, recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have influenced our outlook on the US dollar. Powell's statement, made yesterday on January 31st, indicated that there won't be any rate cuts in March. This commentary has led to expectations of potential strength in the US dollar as it suggests a more hawkish stance by the Fed regarding monetary policy. Given this fundamental development, we anticipate that any further weakness in AUDUSD could be exacerbated by potential dollar strength following Powell's warning. Traders should monitor the market closely for confirmation of the breakout and be prepared for possible downside momentum in AUDUSD. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
GBPAUD (and EURAUD) Looking at more upside to comeTradingview Ideas: Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Likely more upside to come,let's see! Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Long
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
GBPAUD: Technical Uptrend with Fundamental InsightsHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring GBPAUD for a buying opportunity around 1.93200 zone, GBPAUD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.93200 support and resistance area. Now, let's delve into the fundamental aspect: Recent remarks from Huw Pill, the chief economist at the Bank of England, have stirred market interest. Pill hinted at the possibility of a shift in the central bank's stance regarding interest rates. His cautionary comments, particularly regarding geopolitical risks like those in the Middle East, suggest a nuanced approach to future rate decisions. This fundamental layer adds depth to our technical analysis, emphasizing the importance of monitoring central bank commentary alongside price action for strategic trading decisions.
Long
by JoeChampion
1
EURUAD I Detailed analysis ahead of AUD Cash Rate ReportWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** EURAUD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
by BKTradingAcademy
2
AUDCAD: What's the link between AUDCAD and dollar strength?In today's trading session, our focus is on AUDCAD, where we're eyeing a selling opportunity around the 0.88600 zone. AUDCAD is currently in a downtrend and undergoing a correction phase, approaching the trend at the 0.88600 support and resistance area. However, a fundamental layer adds depth to our analysis, as AUDCAD exhibits a correlation with stocks. Given the current strength of the dollar, there's potential for pressure on stocks, which in turn could influence a downward trend in AUDCAD. As we assess the dynamics of AUDCAD, it's crucial to consider the broader market context. The strength of the dollar often impacts various asset classes, including stocks. A strong dollar typically leads to lower demand for commodities, which can weigh on commodity-linked currencies like the Australian dollar. Consequently, AUDCAD tends to mirror fluctuations in stock markets, especially during periods of heightened volatility or shifts in investor sentiment.
Short
by JoeChampion
AUDJPY to find sellers at market?AUDJPY - Intraday Broken out of the channel formation to the downside. We look to sell rallies. We expect a reversal in this move. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 96.25 will confirm the bearish momentum. We look to Sell at 96.80 (stop at 97.30) Our profit targets will be 95.60 and 95.40 Resistance: 96.80 / 97.00 / 97.25 Support: 96.25 / 96.00 / 95.75 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
RBA meeting preview – transitioning away from a tightening bias Time: Tuesday at 14:30 AEDT With the Fed, ECB and BoE now having offered their guidance on policy and all largely pushing back on the pricing of imminent cuts, it’s the RBA who steps up as a risk event for traders on Tuesday. Like the aforementioned central banks, the timing and the extent of RBA rate cuts are the subject of much debate among local market participants - all with fairly strong and dispersed views on when the first cut plays out. What is more important to drive the reaction in the AUD or AUS200 are market expectations and what is being priced. The best way to measure these expectations is through the Aus 30-day interest rate futures, and these are the first derivative by which other markets (such as the AUD) will react to. As we from the table the central view from rates traders is there is very little chance of a 25bp cut at this meeting or the March meeting. The May RBA meeting is considered to be ‘live’ and while this pricing will move dynamically with supply and demand from market participants, there is currently a 56% probability of easing here, with June almost fully priced for a cut. I sit more in the June camp myself. By December ‘24 the market is torn between two or three 25bp cuts, with 64bp of easing priced. Another factor is the pricing of the trough in the cash rate, as this offers a sense of where the collective sees a neutral setting. Here we can look at the forward rates market and see this currently set between 3.50% and 3.25% in 2 years’ time. A 3.5% floor in the cash rate would be conditional on the economy avoiding a recession, where a recessionary environment would require a more accommodative stance and the cash rate likely pulled below 2%. The reaction in the AUD While the RBA won't cut the cash rate at this meeting, the reaction in markets will come from the tone of the RBA statement and any change in the wording that gives a sense of whether there is any appetite to ease from May or June. While cumulative pricing in Aussie rates is certainly nowhere near as aggressive as what we see in the tradable US or EUR interest rate markets, if the market sees no tangible evidence the bank is prepared to cut then May rate cut pricing will be pared back and the AUD should spike higher. Positioning, specifically from fast money leverage funds (e.g. hedge funds), will also play a critical role in the extent of the move to the tone of the statement, and flow reports from investment banks suggest these players running a sizeable AUD short position, albeit not at extreme levels. Given the trend in both headline and core inflation, along with subdued growth and stalling house price momentum, the RBA will almost certainly lose its hawkish bias in the meeting statement. However, they will likely be non-committal and adopt a clear wait-and-see bias. This should loosely put a cut on the table as early as May, but it will be highly conditional on the outcome of the following data points: Wage price index (21 Feb), monthly CPI reports (28 Feb, 27 March), Q1 CPI (24 April), employment reports (15 Feb, 21 March, 18 April) and Q4 GDP (6 March). Certainly, the Q1 CPI is the marquee data point that could decide a May cut, and the RBA would want to see inflation falling below 3.5%. The RBA would also require an unemployment rate above 4% (currently 3.9%) and trending higher to ease. A big day for the AUD It's worth considering that as well as the RBA statement we get the SoMP (Statement on Monetary policy) at the same time, and there will likely be changes to the bank's economic projections – that could put the market on notice. Also, an hour later (15:30 AEDT) RBA Governor Bullock will hold a press conference – this will be important for traders to react to. Gov Bullock will be probed on the broad appetite to cut and once again the reaction in the AUD and AUS200 will be driven by nuance and her urgency to normalize relative to the rates pricing. In theory, the meeting should be a low-volatility affair, with the bank moving to a more neutral setting and welcoming the moves lower in inflation but refraining from saying their work is done. It is still an obvious risk though for AUD exposures, so do consider position sizing over the event and consider where you see the skew in risk. As we move into the meeting AUDUSD is tracking a range of 0.6625 to 0.6550 – a break of this range could be quite powerful. Sentiment towards global risk assets is a contributing factor but as I say, around the meeting how the RBA are seeing things relative to market pricing will likely be the driving factor.
by Pepperstone
AUDUSD continues in a range.AUDUSD - 24h expiry Trading has been mixed and volatile. Price action has continued to range within a rectangle formation. The primary trend remains bearish. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Bespoke resistance is located at 0.6600. We look to Sell at 0.6600 (stop at 0.6624) Our profit targets will be 0.6540 and 0.6520 Resistance: 0.6600 / 0.6630 / 0.6660 Support: 0.6540 / 0.6510 / 0.6480 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
The RBA to join the rate cut party in May?Aus Q4 CPI came in at 4.1% yoy, with the trimmed mean measure at 4.2% yoy – both were nicely below the economist's median forecast, and importantly below the RBA’s own forecasts of 4.5% for both metrics. We also saw the more timely monthly (December) CPI print coming in at 3.4%; a 90bp improvement – and just 40bp away from the 2-3% target band. Next week’s RBA meeting looms large, and the tone of the statement should reflect a bank seeing inflation moving towards target, yet they will make it clear this is no time for victory laps and more needs to be done. The RBA will be enthused by the fact core inflation is below the RBA’s cash rate – subsequently, we have a positive real cash rate for the first time since 2016 - this is a small but welcomed victory for Bullock and co. With both core and headline CPI nicely below the November Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts, we question the possibility of tweaks to their projections for June and December 2024 CPI. These currently sit at 4% by June and 3.5% by December, so any revisions to these estimates could result in some solid movement in interest rate futures and by extension the AUD and AUS200. Aussie economic data has generally come in below market consensus expectations of late, so the pricing of expected RBA policy – through interest rate futures - has been part-validated in today’s CPI print. Looking at Aussie interest rate futures, the market prices no chance of a 25bp cut in either the February or March RBA meeting, and if anything, the RBA statements at these meetings need to lay the groundwork for cuts – although the tone of the guidance will be data-dependent. While much of the disinflation has been driven by tradables, a 25bp cut in May is a real possibility and the market prices this at 50% - so essentially a coin toss. We see two 25bp cuts priced by year-end. Eyes on Gov Bullock Gov Bullock speaks next Friday (09:30 AEDT) and while she speaks after the RBA meeting statement and SoMP (both on Tuesday 14:30 AEDT) her testimony will be scrutinized and will move interest rate pricing, and by extension the AUD. I think we’ll have a fair idea of the timeline for potential policy easing from here. Gov Bullock has a straightforward job – time rate cuts perfectly. Obviously, that’s easy to say but tough to do in principle but if we focus on the capital markets, we see little risk of an implied policy mistake and we see the ASX200 at all-time highs, with bank equity and consumer-sensitive stocks in rude health. AUD 1-month implied volatility resides at 12-month lows, while the Aussie housing market shows few concerns. I guess this is an issue with setting policy on quarterly core inflation -it is a slow-moving beast and clearly a lagging indicator the fact it is still 120bp from target feels like a hawkish Bullock may keep the peddle to the metal for now. The market will put more weight on the monthly CPI reads. I also consider the frequency of central bank speeches, and this is where the RBA, the ECB and the Fed differ in a big way – In Australia, we simply don’t have the plethora of central bankers that speak almost every day, and it's often a long time between drinks for the RBA speeches. This is quite refreshing, but in times like this it can be useful to know how each member stands, giving almost real-time commentary on policy. Anyhow, the markets speak out – the door is ajar for a cut in May but easing will be gradual relative to the Fed, ECB, and other G10 CBs. We also see the floor in the RBA cash rate priced at 3.5%, so loosely four 25bp cuts are priced to a ‘terminal’ level. The RBA won't try and keep pace with the Fed, they will work on their own merit and focus on their set of economics – either way, the trajectory for CPI suggests we will join the rate cut party and a ‘soft landing’ seems to be the more probable outcome, at least judging by the message from the markets.
PEPPERSTONE:AUS200Long
by Pepperstone
AUDUSD:Bullish Stocks and Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a buying opportunity around 0.65800 zone, AUDUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.65800 support and resistance area. We would also like to consider the current bullish momentum on stocks and indices, usually bullish stock makes AUDUSD longs interesting due to the positive correlation. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
4
Sell GBPAUD Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/AUD pair on the H1 chart exhibits a bearish signal suggesting a potential decline in the coming hours. A recent downward breakout from a triangular consolidation pattern could offer a shorting opportunity. Key Points: Triangle Breakout: The price has been confined within a triangle formation, characterized by converging support and resistance lines. This often indicates indecision before a decisive move. However, the recent break below the lower support line at 1.9265 suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside. Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price near 1.9265, offering an entry point close to the breakout level. Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the support levels of 1.9114 and 1.9027, marking previous support zones within the triangle. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the resistance 1.9400 Fundamental Updates : Bank of England (BoE) Meeting and Interest Rate Decision (Feb 2): While the BoE is expected to raise rates again, the focus will be on the size (25bps or 50bps) and future policy guidance. Dovish pronouncements could weaken the GBP and support AUD selling against it. Risk-Off Sentiment: A general deterioration in global market sentiment could drive investors towards the safe-haven AUD and put downward pressure on GBP/AUD. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
3