200AUD (Index) LongsMost major markets have been breaking All-Time-Highs.
Momentum is still strongly bullish.
Currently in a Bullish Outbreak, occurring after two same-sized retracements (represented by congruent grey rectangles).
No indication of reversal, expecting price to continue hitting new highs.
Preparing for Long positions after appropriate candlestick close.
Keep an eye out for signs of bearish reversal.
Invalidation point placed before the opening gap (red dashed line).
Aggressively add to position if in profit, once price has found support.
Avoid adding to position if negative.
Aud200
ASX to find sellers at current swing highs?ASX200 - 24h expiry
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 7280 level.
We look to Sell at 7275 (stop at 7315)
Our profit targets will be 7175 and 7150
Resistance: 7305 / 7435 / 7600
Support: 7215 / 7120 / 7010
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AUS200 forecast December/JanuaryWith holiday comes low volatility. I expect market to stay within 7080-7158. Very likely till first week of January.
This might play out two ways:
1. Bullish scenario:
- we break above 7158, and hit 7250. (Max 7400 to form double top on daily chart and then drop to 6500 or even new lows)
- looking into Elliott Waves strategy - we could face one more wave to the upside
2. Bearish scenario:
- not much movement until Jan, staying around 7080-7195.
- drop to 6500.
Long story short I expect going back towards 2022 lows in the next three months. It’s hard to say when exactly it’ll happen. Big move can be triggered by pretty much anything at this point (worse CPIs, new Russian sanctions, restrictions in China, new wave of Covid….).
This is a risky enviroment so trade carefully and always do your own analysis before opening the trade.
AUD200AUD currently in PullbackAfter breaking the weekly structure downward, AUD 200 has been in upward correction phase for a couple days while forming bearish Flag on 4hr TF. We can see downtrend continuation once it has retested the previous demand zone now turned supply zone as well as completing its 50% correction which also lies in that area. I will be looking for a Short Entry near the 0.5 Fib level.
#AUS200: Playing a Descending scallop patternDescending scallop is a pattern that can be traded long or short.
The price comes down forming a elongated rounded bottom then has a throwback. The high before the throwback (small dump) is the breakout level upwards.
The lowest point of the rounded bottom is the breakout level downwards.
So first we need to wait and see if there is a throwback - unless we have this then its not to be classified as a descending scallop pattern.
The idea is to short at the throwback swing high, covering long at the bounce described below.
Then if the throwback holds around the 0.618 fibonacci level you can look for longs when it breaks upward out of the high of the swing before the throwback its confirmation of the breakout. Invalidation of long is when we close under the bottom breakout level. Invalidation of short when we close above the swing high before the "Throwback".
Check linked idea for a recent idea of descending scallop.
4Hour chart on AUD200In my previous analysis on AUD 200, we met our First Take Profit levels
Our first TP level was coinciding with key Fib levels and as expected, we are finding selling pressure there.
So I decided to go down to 4 hours charts, and to see if there is any cue there to see the expected direction.
Following observation,
1. I drew a trend line on the RSI and a break below may indicate change in current upward move and may showcase caution and further analysis
2. The price action may just be creating a head and shoulder pattern, generally at market tops, indication price may exit downwards, but its too early as the right shoulder is not ready yet
Keep a close eye on this chart.
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