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AUDJPY

AUDJPY Double Sell SignalThe AUDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 21 2022 High. Supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it not only entered yesterday the Resistance Zone of December 13, but also reached the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down. This is a Double Sell signal and as long as candles close below it, we will be selling towards Support 1 and the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down at 85.100. If a 1D candle closes above the Resistance Zone, we will continue buying for a short-while and target Resistance 2 (95.750). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
RBA surprise and China uplift; The AUD nirvana backdropThe RBA has now ‘surprised’ the market with 2 back-to-back rate hikes, which were both priced at a 30% probability or below. Essentially, the RBA has injected a level of policy uncertainty greater than any other G10 central bank. We also see its hawkish forward guidance maintained with “some further tightening of monetary policy may be required”. So, the question is how much pain the Aussie economy must endure before demand is sufficiently impacted to put inflation firmly on the path to target. AUD supported by a confluence of factors One of the beneficiaries of the RBAs hawkish guidance is the AUD, and it’s been on a roll – where the fundamentals have offered an almost perfect storm for AUD appreciation. We’ve seen iron ore futures +17% since the 26 May lows and copper has lifted from $3.54p/lb. to $3.77 p/lb. The HK50 index was in a bear market but has now rallied 7% off the lows. A reversal and a stronger yuan would have been helpful (for AUD longs) but we’ve seen USDCNH pushing higher and looking for a break of 7.1500. On the rates front we see interest rate differentials also a factor in AUD appreciation, and while we can see some uplift in market expectations for the immediate months ahead, it’s the aggression by which the market has repriced cuts over the next two years that have really hit home. Looking at the pricing of 2-year forward rates we see that while expectations of near-term hikes have increased, it’s the level of expected rate cuts has been more aggressively priced out of the Aussie rates market that have been at play. For example, on 26 April the central case of the market was that the RBAs cash rate would be 128bp (5 cuts) lower this time in 2 years. The re-pricing has taken the level of expected cuts over the next 2 years to just 34bp. Rate cuts have also been walked back in other G10 countries, as we see below. However, when we contrast Aus 2yr forward rates to that of USD, EUR, NZD, and GBP (see below - in order), we see just how aggressive this move has been on a relative basis. This has proven to be a real tailwind for the AUD. Moves in ASX200 equity; shorting banks has worked well If the move-in rates are a tailwind for the AUD, it has been problematic and a sizeable headwind for the interest rate-sensitive parts of the Australian equity market. Shorting Aussie banks has worked well really since early February, where competition has had to intensify to attract deposits, while higher funding costs have promoted a war on mortgage pricing. Net interest margins are to decline consequently, and Westpac has already stated they have seen a rise in 30-day delinquencies. While would-be buyers step away, the speculative fraction of market participants senses this and gets more traction shorting equities that are bear trending. Traders can operate banks tactically, either as part of a long/short approach or as an outright directional trade against lower net interest margins and earnings. What comes next? Are rates still too low? With the market now having discounted much of the expected future RBA policy setting, the question is what happens next for RBA policy. Can we get to a point where the market fully prices out cuts for the coming 2 years altogether? Shorter-term, with 8bp of hikes priced for the July RBA meeting (a 32% chance of a hike), is this again priced too low? We see the peak RBA cash rate expectations of 4.34% by September, should this be priced closer to 4.6% maybe even 5%? To answer this we will watch a combination of broad financial conditions, global economic trends, domestic auction clearance rates and anecdotes on credit demand. However, of the known data points, we look for: • 13 June Westpac consumer confidence / NAB business confidence. • 15 June - May employment report • 28 June – May CPI report • 29 June – Retail sales • 3 July CoreLogic House price index • 4 July – RBA meeting • 26 July – Q2 CPI • 15 August – Wage Price Index For now, especially on the higher timeframes, the wind is to the AUD's back, and we see key technical breakouts vs GBP, EUR, and JPY, with AUDNZD having been on a one-way rampage. AUDCHF is eyeing a break of its range higher, having rallied from 0.5867, where a daily close could set the pair on for the double-bottom target of 0.6230. The time for shorting the AUD (on the higher timeframes) will come soon enough, but until China turns lower and rates look fully priced the skew in risk that for more upside in the AUD.
Long
by Pepperstone
06062023 - #AUDJPY $AUDJPYMarket came down very slight yesterday, and was supported at PZ, forming a tweezer type of candle. Similar move this morning with the down move to test yesterday's low but now market 20 pips higher. USDJPY is weaker but overall, yesterday's price action is not a clear reversal candle. Possible move for today, IMO (with important AUD news later); the thesis would be if yesterday's candle is an intermediate high. Price is now between PZ and BZ. If you ask me, could get a move lower to 91.76 which would be a good location to look for longs. For now, price below PZ, is a short for a move to 92 and 91.76.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
AUDJPY - 4hrs ( Sell Trade After retest : Tp Range 250 PIP )💲Pair Name : AUD/JPY 🗨Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close ➕Scale Type : Large Scale ------ 🗒 spreading knowledge among us and to clarify the most important points of entry, exit and entry with more than 5 reasons We seek to spread understanding rather than make money ✔️ Key Technical / Direction ( Short After Retest ) Type : Mid Term Swing ——————————— 🔰Bearish Reversal 93.000 Area Reasons - Major Turn level - Weekly Price Action - Visible range Value - Fibo Golden - Quarter's Area 🔰Bullish Reversal Area 91.000 reasons - Major Turn level / D - Visible Range Lvn Area - Liquidity Zone - Missing Retest - Past Month High - Fibo Golden Zone
Short
by GentleGoldenEngine
1
AUDJPY to find buyers at previous swing highs?AUDJPY - Intraday Previous support is located at 91.50. Previous resistance located at 92.00. The trend of lower intraday highs at 92.00 needs to be broken to confirm a reversal. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. The RSI is trending higher. We look to Buy at 91.25 (stop at 90.90) Our profit targets will be 92.15 and 92.25 Resistance: 92.00 / 92.25 / 92.50 Support: 91.50 / 91.25 / 91.00 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
AUD/JPY Strong Resistance and 200 WMA cross Long opportunityHi traders! According to my analysis, the AUD/JPY currency pair is expected to increase, presenting a potential Long opportunity. The basis for this expectation is the recent crossing of the price Above the 200 - period Weighted Moving Average (WMA), indicating a Bullish signal. Additionally, there is a strong resistance level that further strengthens the case for an upward movement in the price. Have trading day ahead!
Long
by TheNomadTraderYT
AUDJPY - 4hrs ( Sell Trade Target Range 160 PIP ) 💲Pair Name : AUD/JPY 🗨Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close ➕Scale Type : Large Scale ------ 🗒 spreading knowledge among us and to clarify the most important points of entry, exit and entry with more than 5 reasons We seek to spread understanding rather than make money ✔️ Key Technical / Direction ( ↘️ Short ) Type : Mid Term Swing ——————————— 🔰Bearish Retest 90.800 Area Reasons - Major Turn level - Visible Range Lvn - Fixed Range Poc - Turn over Break - Month High area 🔰Bullish Reversal 89.200 Area Reasons - Major turn level / D - visible Range lvn - visible Range value - pattern Target - Liquidity Zone - Fibo Golden
Short
by GentleGoldenEngine