AUDJPY
Failed to make a wipe outThe previous trading week price did not make the anticipated liquidity sweep, as a result we ought to approach this pair in a more cautious way. In this case patience is key. The abrupt drop spiked the immediate 4h demand zone and price started to consolidate, this could be an internal accumulation, looking for a hike to the upside in order to catch a nice bearish move…
AUDUSD Reversal? Is Risk Off happening? AUDJPY in a potential daily trend change. Risk off is on the table. Traded 50% short on Friday morning in NY and sold off pretty much all day. A 2nd chance short at 50% HWB short 91.90 would be a gift. If stocks keep selling off though, would expect it to head down to the 91.262 early in the week.
AUDJPYAUDJPY on the 30-minute chart has had higher lows but also lower highs and may have
a symmetrical triangle pattern. Price is currently at or above the following :
(1) the POC line of the long-term volume profile (2) the mean line of the long-term anchored
VWAP (blue line ) and the convergence of the EMA 200 ( red) and EMA 21 ( green). On the
stochastic RSI the lines are moving upward from a bottom well below 20 and suggest bullish
divergence. Given these confluences, I conclude that AUDJPY is set up to move higher over
the intermediate term.
AUD/JPY; Fade the rallies; Long term Short BiasPretty much everything is aligned in favor for this pair to post significant loses in the near future. (Including the sentiment indicators which are in firmly bearish territory!)
E.g., Fade the rallies!
- China's reopening is a dud - to say the least -, more importantly, with substantial long term implications;
- The commodity picture is strongly DEflationary, across the board; (US hard landing ; is Crude is going to hold around $60, or not?!; etc.)
- Japan is gaining it's industrial stride, benefiting from a deflationary (raw materials) environment and it's rapidly rising significance as the regional key stone vs. China;
- Australia (without much China) has the significance of a distant (albeit important) military outpost and that's all! (At the end of the day Australia bears even far less significance than India, which is simply too far from the developed world to play any notable role. - Australia happens to be even more removed and distance/sea lanes do matter nowadays, far more than at any time during the past 50 years!)
- ... and the list goes on . (A list which is rather long, all of it in favor of Japan.)