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Audjpylong

AUDJPY at Key Support Zone - Will Buyers Regain Control?OANDA:AUDJPY has reached a significant demand zone marked by prior price reactions. This level aligns with a key support level that has historically shown buyer interest, suggesting a potential for reversal. The recent bearish move appears to be testing this demand zone, and if the price shows a clear rejection through bullish price action signals—such as a strong engulfing candle or wicks rejecting lower prices—there is a likelihood of a rebound. I anticipate that if the demand zone holds, the market may see a rally toward the 97.300 level. Let me know your thoughts on this analysis or if you see any alternative scenarios. Feel free to share in the comments!
Long
by DanieIM
1
AUD/JPY Reversal: Targeting 102.000 from 96.900 AUD/JPY has recently shown signs of exhaustion at lower levels, signaling a potential reversal from the 96.900 level. Here’s a detailed breakdown of why this setup presents an attractive trading opportunity: Technical Analysis: Key Support Zone: The 96.900 level has proven to be a significant support area historically, as seen from previous price reactions. The pair has bounced strongly from this region multiple times, indicating the presence of strong buying interest. Bollinger Bands: The price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band on the daily timeframe, which often serves as a dynamic support level. This suggests a high likelihood of mean reversion toward the midline or upper band. Fibonacci Levels: Applying Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing low to the swing high reveals that 96.900 aligns closely with the 38.2% retracement level. This confluence strengthens the case for a reversal. Trendline Analysis: A rising trendline drawn from the March 2023 low intersects near 96.900. The trendline has been respected multiple times, indicating its significance. Divergence on RSI: On the 4-hour and daily charts, the RSI is showing bullish divergence, with the oscillator forming higher lows while the price forms lower lows. This often precedes a reversal in price. Volume Profile: A noticeable increase in volume near the 96.900 region suggests accumulation by institutional players, further reinforcing the support level's validity. Fundamental Drivers: Risk Sentiment: The Australian Dollar, being a commodity-linked currency, is often influenced by global risk appetite. Any improvements in risk sentiment could boost AUD demand. Japan's Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan’s commitment to its ultra-loose monetary policy may continue to pressure the Yen. This divergence in monetary policies between the RBA and BoJ supports a bullish bias for AUD/JPY. Economic Indicators: Strong economic data from Australia, particularly in the employment and commodity sectors, could act as a catalyst for further upside. Target and Risk Management: Entry Point: Look for long positions near 96.900, ideally after a bullish confirmation (e.g., a pin bar or engulfing candle on the daily timeframe). Take-Profit Levels: First target: 98.500 (psychological level and minor resistance). Final target: 102.000 (major resistance zone from previous highs). Stop-Loss Placement: A tight stop-loss below 96.400 ensures limited downside risk while providing an excellent risk-to-reward ratio. Conclusion: AUD/JPY is presenting a high-probability reversal opportunity from the 96.900 support zone. Both technical and fundamental factors align, making this trade idea particularly compelling. Monitor price action closely for confirmation before entering.
Long
by The_fx_GreyTrader
AUD/JPY Trendline Breakout Play!Hey traders, I’m sharing a live trade I’ve just entered on the AUD/JPY pair. Let’s dive into the details, step by step, so you can see exactly why I took this trade and how I’m managing it. 🔥 First, take a look at this beautiful uptrend line I’ve drawn. The price has been respecting this line perfectly, forming higher highs and higher lows, which shows us that the bulls are still in control. 🐂 Right now, the price has bounced off this trendline, and that’s where I entered Long at 98.448. Why did I take this trade? 1️⃣ Trendline Support: The price bounced from a key support zone. 2️⃣ RSI Confirmation: The RSI is above 50, showing bullish momentum. 3️⃣ Clear Risk/Reward: This setup offers a solid risk-to-reward ratio, which is always part of my trading plan. Here’s the full breakdown: Entry Point: 98.448 Stop-Loss (SL): 97.976 (just below the trendline and the last swing low). Take Profit (TP): 98.870 (a key resistance zone and a logical target for this move). Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~1:2 If the price hits my TP, it’s a solid win! If it hits my SL, I’ve kept the loss manageable, as always. 💼 So now it’s a waiting game, but I’m confident in this setup. What do you think? Will the price reach my target? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below, and don’t forget to like and subscribe for more live trades and market insights! 🙌 Disclaimer This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you can lose more than your initial investment. Always do your own research and consult a professional before trading.
Long
by MetalsMine
AUDJPY Analysis - BuyAUDJPY Analysis Overview 1. Seasonality: AUD: Bearish until midweek — Seasonal weakness in AUD early in the week aligns with a short-term bearish sentiment. JPY: Bullish — JPY strength throughout the week supports its safe-haven appeal. --- 2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders): AUD: 4-week flip indicates a Sell bias. Non-commercial short positions are increasing, signaling bearish sentiment for AUD. JPY: 4-week flip indicates a Buy bias. Non-commercial long positions are increasing, reinforcing bullish sentiment for JPY. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis: LEI (Leading Economic Indicator): AUD:Decreasing — Suggests deteriorating economic momentum, adding to bearish pressure. JPY: Range — Neutral economic conditions but still supportive due to JPY's safe-haven status. Endogenous Factors: AUD: Mix to Decreasing — Weak internal factors limit AUD’s strength. JPY: Increasing — Improving domestic conditions support JPY buying. --- 4. Exogenous Factors: GBPJPY: Strong Sell — Broader risk-off sentiment in the market favors safe-haven currencies like JPY over risk-sensitive ones like AUD. --- 5. Technical Analysis: On the 1-hour chart: A Cup and Handle pattern and an ABCD pattern are forming, indicating bullish potential. After point C, the price is making Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), suggesting a bullish continuation. These bullish patterns present a good Buy Opportunity, especially as the price confirms its breakout above the handle. --- Bias: Buy Despite AUD's seasonal weakness early in the week, the technical setup on the 1-hour chart favors a bullish bias for AUDJPY. JPY's strength provides additional support for safe-haven flows, but the technical patterns indicate that AUDJPY has room to rally in the short term. Consider entering long positions upon confirmation of the breakout above the handle.
Long
by asadamalik
AUDJPY - Short active !!Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on AUDJPY. Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. I expect bearish price action after price filled the imbalance and rejected from bearish OB. Fundamental news: On Tuesday (GMT+2) we will see results of Cash Rate on AUD and on Thursday Unemployment Rate. News with high impact on currency. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Short
by Snick3rSD
AUD/JPY: Is the Downtrend Losing Steam?Monthly Chart Overview On the monthly chart, AUD/JPY is exhibiting significant downside extension, reaching a key rejection zone. This area has historically acted as a strong support or resistance, which could indicate potential for price exhaustion. However, patience is required, as the bearish trend remains intact for now. Weekly Chart Perspective Zooming into the weekly chart, the price appears even more overextended to the downside. The pair is approaching important zones of interest, suggesting the possibility of a retracement. This could present buying opportunities as the price potentially rebalances. However, the bearish momentum remains strong, making it crucial to wait for confirmation since the downward trend could persist. 4-Hour Chart Dynamics On the 4-hour chart, the key lies in observing whether: Price breaks aggressively to the upside, signaling the beginning of a potential retracement, or Price continues its downward movement, confirming the prevailing bearish trend. This timeframe is crucial for fine-tuning your entry and taking a directional stance. Any aggressive bullish momentum or clear bearish continuation will dictate the strategy. Fundamental Insights (COT Report) A notable signal suggesting the potential for a long setup is visible in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report: The JPY positions are showing aggressive additions to long positions, with a simultaneous unwinding of short positions. In contrast, the AUD remains stable, indicating less aggressive positioning on the AUD side of the pair. This shift in sentiment toward the JPY could be an early indication of a potential reversal in AUD/JPY, as the market might be anticipating a weakening of the downtrend or a possible retracement. Trading Approach Bullish Plan: Wait for confirmation of a reversal (e.g., bullish engulfing candles, breaks of recent highs, or strong momentum). Enter on the retracement with targets at resistance levels identified on the weekly chart. The shift in JPY positioning strengthens the case for this setup. Bearish Plan: If the price continues to break lower, consider shorting after a pullback to resistance, in line with the higher timeframe trend. Key Takeaways The combination of price reaching historical rejection zones and the COT report sentiment shift suggests potential for a reversal, but patience is critical for confirmation. Monitor the 4-hour chart for key breakouts or confirmations in price direction. Use defined zones on the monthly and weekly charts for targets and risk management.
by Wiiso