AUD/JPY; Fade the rallies; Long term Short BiasPretty much everything is aligned in favor for this pair to post significant loses in the near future. (Including the sentiment indicators which are in firmly bearish territory!)
E.g., Fade the rallies!
- China's reopening is a dud - to say the least -, more importantly, with substantial long term implications;
- The commodity picture is strongly DEflationary, across the board; (US hard landing ; is Crude is going to hold around $60, or not?!; etc.)
- Japan is gaining it's industrial stride, benefiting from a deflationary (raw materials) environment and it's rapidly rising significance as the regional key stone vs. China;
- Australia (without much China) has the significance of a distant (albeit important) military outpost and that's all! (At the end of the day Australia bears even far less significance than India, which is simply too far from the developed world to play any notable role. - Australia happens to be even more removed and distance/sea lanes do matter nowadays, far more than at any time during the past 50 years!)
- ... and the list goes on . (A list which is rather long, all of it in favor of Japan.)
