Get started

AUDNZD

AUDNZD Outlook 17 April 2023Toward the end of last week, the AUDNZD retraced from the resistance level of 1.0810 to trade down to the 1.0740 price level which coincided with the upward trend line and was within the area of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The price bounced from the trendline and has now broken above the resistance level as the AUDUSD and NZDUSD weakened on Friday. While the price could consolidate or retrace briefly, further downside on the NZDUSD could see the AUDNZD continue to trade higher to retest the next resistance level of 1.0890.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
AN potential break up or reversal **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
1
AUDNZD Outlook 13 April 2023Today, the Australian employment data surprised markets with stronger than expected release, with the unemployment rate staying at 3.5% while employment change was higher than expected). This led to brief strength in the AUDUSD, which saw the AUDNZD climb higher to test the 1.0810 resistance level. However, in the short term, as the price currently retraces from the resistance level, look for a test of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.0759 price level. A break of the interim support level could see the AUDNZD trade lower to test the upward trendline along the 1.0726 price level. However, in the longer term, following with the upward trend, if the bounces from the 1.0759 level, look for the AUDNZD to break above the resistance level, with the next resistance level at 1.0886
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
AN more on the downside to come...As previously mentioned it is more on the downside..bias to short moving forwards... **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
2
AUD/NZD My Opinion! SELL! My dear subscribers , This is my opinion on the AUD/NZD next move: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.07614 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.07205 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
AUD USD / AUD NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSForeign exchange analysts at BNP Paribas suggest a bullish outlook for the AUD/USD and AUD/NZD exchange rates, citing global market stabilisation, the divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), housing market vulnerabilities, and seasonal performance in risky assets. Global Markets Stabilizing and Impact on Exchange Rates FX strategists at the French international banking group highlight that global markets have stabilised following financial stress in the financial sector. This stabilisation is expected to lead to a broad weakening of the USD and a recovery in equity-sensitive currencies trading near recent lows, such as the Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate. "Over the coming weeks, we see scope for equity-sensitive currencies trading near recent lows, such as AUDUSD, to recover in line with a broad weakening of the USD." Global Risk Premium Index and Seasonal Performance Saimbi points out that the BNP Paribas global risk premium index is at high levels, suggesting investor appetite is excessively low and therefore that risk-reward is attractive to add risk-on positions. Additionally, BNP Paribas's seasonality analysis shows that in early April, risky assets tend to perform well, which may have a positive impact on the AUD/USD exchange rate. "BNP Paribas’s seasonality analysis finds that in early April, risky assets tend to perform well." Momentum to Sell USD Saimbi indicates that recent data have led the market to further price out Fed tightening, and the USD's reaction to downside surprises has been marked. As a result, there is an appetite to build USD shorts, which may lead to a fast rally in the AUD/USD exchange rate. "We believe this suggests the market could have a good appetite to build USD shorts here." RBA and RBNZ Divergence The divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in terms of policy rates is a fast-growing theme in the FX markets. The RBA has kept policy rates unchanged at its last meeting, and Governor Lowe has suggested that rate increases are not over. In contrast, the RBNZ has been more hawkish, with markets pricing in a large degree of divergence between the two central banks. "This means the market’s pricing for such a large degree of RBA divergence from the RBNZ may not be realised, especially considering its inflation projections are remarkably similar." Housing Market Vulnerabilities According to the analyst, the divergence between the RBA and RBNZ is even more unjustified when considering risks to Australia's economy from the housing market. Australia still has relatively large excess savings buffers accumulated during the pandemic, and debt service ratios may have only risen to pre-pandemic average levels. "We find a smaller proportion of lower earners in Australia than elsewhere." Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecasts Saimbi suggests that with markets pricing in only about a 20% chance of a further 25bp hike from the RBA at the moment, risks appear more asymmetrically skewed to the upside. In contrast, the more hawkish RBNZ meeting (5 April) presented an opportunity to sell NZD. The analyst recommends going long on the Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate (AUD/USD) and the Australian Dollar to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate(AUD/NZD). This implies a bullish outlook for the AUD against the USD and NZD currencies. "We think the pullback in AUDNZD presents an opportunity to buy the cross, given that we think the divergence currently priced in between the RBNZ and RBA is not likely to prove sustainable, especially as we judge New Zealand’s housing market to be more vulnerable than Australia’s."
by thunderpips
Aud/Nzd heading lower The AUDNZD currency pair currently has a "Sell" rating with a total score of -5 after evaluating various factors. First, let's examine the preferences of institutional traders. The AUD has a long position percentage of 38.71%, while the NZD has a long position percentage of 43.82%. As a result, this category gets a score of -1, indicating that institutional traders have a greater preference for the NZD. Next, we'll consider retail traders' positions. For AUDNZD, retail traders are 64% long and 36% short. We use this information when there is a significant imbalance in retail trader positions. A score of +1 or -1 is given if 60% or more of retail traders are on one side. In this case, the AUDNZD receives a score of -1, as the majority of retail traders are long. We generally take the opposite position when the retail crowd is heavily biased. In terms of seasonality, the score is +1, meaning that historically, this market has a tendency to rise during this month. The trend analysis is based on daily chart data, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). A strong trend, either upward or downward, is indicated by the alignment of these EMAs. For this pair, the score is -2, implying a downward trend. Lastly, a review of fundamental factors reveals the following: GDP growth is in favor of the AUD, while inflation, unemployment, and interest rates favor the NZD.
Short
by Elite_Forex
1