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AUDNZD

AUD USD / AUD NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSForeign exchange analysts at BNP Paribas suggest a bullish outlook for the AUD/USD and AUD/NZD exchange rates, citing global market stabilisation, the divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), housing market vulnerabilities, and seasonal performance in risky assets. Global Markets Stabilizing and Impact on Exchange Rates FX strategists at the French international banking group highlight that global markets have stabilised following financial stress in the financial sector. This stabilisation is expected to lead to a broad weakening of the USD and a recovery in equity-sensitive currencies trading near recent lows, such as the Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate. "Over the coming weeks, we see scope for equity-sensitive currencies trading near recent lows, such as AUDUSD, to recover in line with a broad weakening of the USD." Global Risk Premium Index and Seasonal Performance Saimbi points out that the BNP Paribas global risk premium index is at high levels, suggesting investor appetite is excessively low and therefore that risk-reward is attractive to add risk-on positions. Additionally, BNP Paribas's seasonality analysis shows that in early April, risky assets tend to perform well, which may have a positive impact on the AUD/USD exchange rate. "BNP Paribas’s seasonality analysis finds that in early April, risky assets tend to perform well." Momentum to Sell USD Saimbi indicates that recent data have led the market to further price out Fed tightening, and the USD's reaction to downside surprises has been marked. As a result, there is an appetite to build USD shorts, which may lead to a fast rally in the AUD/USD exchange rate. "We believe this suggests the market could have a good appetite to build USD shorts here." RBA and RBNZ Divergence The divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in terms of policy rates is a fast-growing theme in the FX markets. The RBA has kept policy rates unchanged at its last meeting, and Governor Lowe has suggested that rate increases are not over. In contrast, the RBNZ has been more hawkish, with markets pricing in a large degree of divergence between the two central banks. "This means the market’s pricing for such a large degree of RBA divergence from the RBNZ may not be realised, especially considering its inflation projections are remarkably similar." Housing Market Vulnerabilities According to the analyst, the divergence between the RBA and RBNZ is even more unjustified when considering risks to Australia's economy from the housing market. Australia still has relatively large excess savings buffers accumulated during the pandemic, and debt service ratios may have only risen to pre-pandemic average levels. "We find a smaller proportion of lower earners in Australia than elsewhere." Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecasts Saimbi suggests that with markets pricing in only about a 20% chance of a further 25bp hike from the RBA at the moment, risks appear more asymmetrically skewed to the upside. In contrast, the more hawkish RBNZ meeting (5 April) presented an opportunity to sell NZD. The analyst recommends going long on the Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate (AUD/USD) and the Australian Dollar to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate(AUD/NZD). This implies a bullish outlook for the AUD against the USD and NZD currencies. "We think the pullback in AUDNZD presents an opportunity to buy the cross, given that we think the divergence currently priced in between the RBNZ and RBA is not likely to prove sustainable, especially as we judge New Zealand’s housing market to be more vulnerable than Australia’s."
by thunderpips
Aud/Nzd heading lower The AUDNZD currency pair currently has a "Sell" rating with a total score of -5 after evaluating various factors. First, let's examine the preferences of institutional traders. The AUD has a long position percentage of 38.71%, while the NZD has a long position percentage of 43.82%. As a result, this category gets a score of -1, indicating that institutional traders have a greater preference for the NZD. Next, we'll consider retail traders' positions. For AUDNZD, retail traders are 64% long and 36% short. We use this information when there is a significant imbalance in retail trader positions. A score of +1 or -1 is given if 60% or more of retail traders are on one side. In this case, the AUDNZD receives a score of -1, as the majority of retail traders are long. We generally take the opposite position when the retail crowd is heavily biased. In terms of seasonality, the score is +1, meaning that historically, this market has a tendency to rise during this month. The trend analysis is based on daily chart data, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). A strong trend, either upward or downward, is indicated by the alignment of these EMAs. For this pair, the score is -2, implying a downward trend. Lastly, a review of fundamental factors reveals the following: GDP growth is in favor of the AUD, while inflation, unemployment, and interest rates favor the NZD.
Short
by Elite_Forex
1
audnzdIf you are considering entering a short position on AUDNZD, it is important to carefully consider your risk tolerance and investment objectives. Shorting a currency pair involves betting that the exchange rate of the assets will go down. While this can potentially result in significant profits, it also carries a high level of risk. If the exchange rate of AUDNZD were to rise instead of fall, your short position could result in substantial losses. Overall, whether to enter a short position on AUDNZD or any other currency pair is a decision that should be based on careful analysis and an understanding of the risks involved. It is always advisable to consult with a financial professional and do your own research before making any investment decisions. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!ITS SOOOO RISKY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Short
by anassatmane
3
AUD/NZD Will Collapse! SELL! My dear subscribers , My technical analysis for AUD/NZD is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.06642 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Goal - 1.05952 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
2
AUDNZD : Short Trade , 4hHello traders, we want to check the AUDNZD chart in the 4-hour time frame. The general trend of the price is downward, and after breaking a range, the price has pulled back to its bottom. We expect this level to play the role of a resistance level for us, and the price will reach the targets. It is determined to continue its downward trend. Good luck. AUDNZD sell Entry : 1.06845 Stop : 1.07470 , Target1 : 1.06235 , Target2 : 1.05596 Risk/Reward Ratio : 2
Short
by mrAT_Trader
AUDNZD: Rejected on the long term Pivot. Bearish.The AUDNZD pair is technically bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 42.033, MACD = -0.005, ADX = 29.502), trading under the P1 Zone, which has been in place since 2021. It is under both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 and it targeting the HL trendline (TP = 1.05300). If the dashed LH trendline breaks, we will buy aiming at R1 (TP = 1.10800). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
4
AUDNZD Will Go Lower! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for AUDNZD. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.066. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.060 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
2