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AUDNZD

AUD/NZD pulls back to key support zone for swing trade longWe’ve been waiting for AUD/NZD to retrace from its cycle high to reconsider longs, and it has now once again piqued our interest. Prices found support at the 200-day EMA yesterday, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement holding today’s low nearby. Whilst RSI (2) is not quite overbought, it is not far from it which suggests we could be approaching a cycle low. It is also trading lower for a fourth consecutive day to also suggest mean reversion (higher) may not be too far away. Should we see evidence of a swing low on the 1 or 4-hour chart, we’d be tempted to scale in to a long with a stop beneath either the bullish trendline or 50% retracement level. We could then tighten our stop and add to the long position if the momentum begins to turn higher on the daily chart. 1.1000 is the initial target near last week’s high, with the potential for a move to 1.1045
Long
by CityIndex
AUDNZD HigherTrying AUDNZD higher here. More of a trend trade, we have a double bottom below as well as support in terms of the price just before AUD CPI came out, that should act as support as well. We also have the 100 DMA just below that could act as support. In terms of narrative we have had decent AUD economic data while the NZD data hasn't been so great, we also have rising AUD CPI and potentially topping NZD CPI which should mean a more hawkish RBA going forward and a less hawkish/peak RBNZ as well. i imagine the market will also price in a pause for the RBNZ coming up at the next meeting. This has been one of the main advantages for the NZD. rate differentials are pointing higher as well, we've had a big move higher while AUDNZD hasn't moved too much higher so we could see AUDND catch up to the move higher in rate differentials. Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
Long
by Spinning_
1
AUDNZD Longs to 1.11500!Reading the daily time frame we can see price is on an uptrend creating higher highs and lows. Price has broken above a previous area of resistance and is now holding at support with signs of rejection. If the price manages to hold above 1.09000 we can see the price reach 1.11500 key psychological. If the price manages to break we must reevaluate price action. Omer Kambal 2/5/2023 ChartAddicts This is not financial advice. The information shared is the opinion of a Chartaddicts analyst. Please do your own research.
Long
by ChartAddicts
AUDNZD - Strong Resistance Ahead!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. on DAILY: Left Chart AUDNZD is approaching a resistance zone so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes. on H4: Right Chart AUDNZD is approaching the upper trendline of the rising channel in red. As price approaches the purple zone, as per my trading plan, I will be looking for potential bearish reversal setups on lower timeframes. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
9
AUD trader - the wind firmly to the back of the 'Aussie battler'As we look at what is an incredible level of event risk in the week ahead – we can take our vision out slightly further, where the RBA meeting on 7 Feb could be lively. In the lead-up AUD exposures will be impacted by risk and sentiment in markets, where the tone will predominantly be driven by the reaction to the FOMC meeting (2 Feb 06:00 AEDT), as well as Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (4 Feb 00:30 AEDT) – however, getting set for the RBA meeting is an increasing factor, especially if trading the AUD through the crosses – AUDNZD, GBPAUD and AUDCAD. The building concern is focused more on Aussie underlying inflation, which at 6.9% was significantly hotter than forecasts – it’s clear the rise in debt serviceability is not impacting household spending patterns as it should and while we can go into the various components (of the CPI basket), the fact is underlying inflation is far too sticky, and still headed the wrong way. While many other central banks still have high absolute inflation, at least inflation is moving back towards target. The idea of pricing the RBA’s terminal rate in Australia is being heavily debated – the ‘terminal’ rate is the highest point or the peak in interest rate expectations, priced into the interest rate curve. As a result of the Aussie CPI print, the dispersion in views around the terminal is as wide as ever – when we get dispersions like this and the distribution of outcomes is varied, then we typically get higher volatility in the currency. Rates review – market implied pricing at the upcoming meeting and the step up to future meetings What we see now is the market is pricing 23bp of hikes for the RBA meeting on the 7 Feb – so essentially a 25bp (or 0.25%) hike is a done deal and the upcoming domestic data seen up to the 7 Feb is unlikely to influence that pricing. Where we could see the reaction in the AUD is when we marry up the tone of the statement to future rate expectation and the market’s pricing on terminal – after this week’s CPI print the market lifted the terminal pricing by some 20bp to 3.75%. In effect the market sees the cash rate rising to 3.35% on 7 Feb, with an additional 25bp either in March or April and maybe one more later in the year. Looking ahead at key dates on the domestic calendar, it feels like the market will place weight on these dates: 16 Feb – Jan employment report 22 Feb – Q4 wage price index 1 March – Jan (monthly) CPI Ongoing – The RBA’s continual liaisons with businesses to understand the prospect of a wage-price spiral. Relative 2YR swaps pricing We can argue that from an inflation and monetary policy setting perspective, the increased divergence suggests the AUD deserves to be trading above 0.7100 – here we see 2-year relative swaps pricing recently moving in favour of AUD appreciation against the USD, EUR, NZD, and GBP – so relative expected rate-setting has offered a platform for the AUD bulls. Another factor that is driving the AUD is the use of the AUD as a trading vehicle to trade changes in market sentiment/risk, as well as developments in China – we’ve seen industrial metals on a rip as China reopens and stimulus, but it’s the equity market that the AUD has a lock on to – for example, the 20-day rolling correlation between the AUDUSD and NAS100 is 0.95 (or 95%), while the correlation with CHINAH is 0.90. So if Chinese and US equity markets are rising and the VIX stays low then the AUD should find buyers on dips and ultimately continue to print higher highs. What’s the trade? How much further the rally in the AUD has left is obviously yet to be seen – AUDNZD has been the stand-out economic and central bank divergence play and the risks are still for higher levels. In AUDUSD we see price testing August 2022 swing high, where a break would suggest a further extension to 0.7312. Taking a more systematic view, in times like this is to remove the emotion and stay with the flow of the market and simply cut on a daily close below the 5-day EMA or a 3 & 8-day EMA. The run is mature but if US equities kick higher next week given the deluge of earnings, then I stay in.
Long
by Pepperstone
POSITION TRADING: AUDNZD SELL LIMIT ORDER. TARGET 1.04650TRADE TYPE: SELL LIMIT TRADE DIRECTION: SHORT TIMEFRAME: WEEKLY ENTRY PRICE: 1.10500 STOP LOSS: 1.16000 TAKE PROFIT: 1.04650 RISK TO REWARD: 1:1 ANALYSIS: Price broke the demand zone / support and is likely looking to aim for upcoming demand zone / support. stop loss ideally placed above supply zone / swing high Follow this thread for any future updates regarding this specific trade. CAUTION: Trading outcome is Probability Based and could wipe out your account if risk management and strategy is not followed properly. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis