AUD/NZD in profit trade idea updateAUD/NZD Fundamental, Technical, and Signal ( NZD fundamentals and events, click link )
*AUD events will be the drivers during trade.
AUD Previous Important Economic Events:
- Consumer Confidence and Confidence Change ( Both actuals below forecast and previous supporting consumers low enthusiasm to spend in the future. )
- Business Confidence ( Below forecast and previous supporting businesses expectations of higher earnings )
- Unemployment Rate ( Lower than forecast and previous. Employment increase due to higher cost of living outweighing income, credit and savings accounts )
AUD Upcoming Important Economic Events:
- S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash ( Manufacturing Forecast 56—.2 lower than previous — Services Forecast 52.3—.3 lower than previous. )
- Year over Year Inflation Rate ( Forecast 6.2%, 1.1% higher than previous. )
- Quarter over Quarter inflation rate ( 1.8%, .3% lower than previous. Short term inflation is cooling )
- Month over Month Retail Sales ( .9% previous )
- Quarter over Quarter PPI ( 1.6% previous )
Sentiment: Neutral
- Consumers and businesses are losing faith in spending and growth ( both result from higher prices for goods and services. Depleting credit, checking, savings accounts and income resources causing consumers to apply for jobs to earn additional income increasing AUD employment numbers. The RBA addressing inflation with hawkish interest rate hikes, lowering short term QoQ Inflation rates.
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Technical Analysis ( Click link for more signals )
Audnzdshort
AUD/NZD *Additional Positions in ProfitsSell Limit: 1.11000 - 1.10900
Take Profits: 1.10400 - 1.10000
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2
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CLICK LINK FOR 4HR ANALYSIS.
AUD/NZD Short SignalChart Analysis
Technical Analysis:
- Price recently fell below a long term uptrend upper trend line and trading in a tight range near the lows of full range.
- Price seems to be forming either a rising wedge *(bearish chart pattern) or a triangle wedge *(bear or bullish chart pattern). Supporting the indecision and why price trading in tight range BUT......slight rising wedge chart pattern, downward price movement and strong resistance level pushes more towards a weakening bullish starting to turn bearish.
- Selling volume spikes above average has been around economic event announcements.
- RSI giving a weak sell signal because price is above moving averages and vortex indicator is still bullish but with a narrow gap.
Signals: (Recommendations and doesn't guarantee profits or losses)
- Scalp Trade
- Sell Limit: 1.11000 - 1.08000
- Take Profits: 1.10300 - 1.09700
- Reward/Risk Ratio: 2/3:1
- Day/Swing Trade:
- Sell Limit: 1.10200 - 1.10100
*ENTRY AFTER PRICE FALLS BELOW AND RETEST MOVING AVERAGE AND WEDGE SUPPORT LEVEL
(ASSUMING A BREAKOUT BELOW SUPPORT LEVELS)
- Take Profits: 1.09700 - 1.0300
- Reward/Risk Ratio: 2/3:1
AUDNZD: Bearish outlook & supply setup
Hey traders,
FX:AUDNZD recently tested demand above the recent pivot high and failed. But in the process, stop orders in that zone were triggered, which qualifies as manipulation in my book.
We then got a strong drop, formed a short base and continued down breaking structure to confirm downtrend. The base is a nice supply zone in itself, where I expect resting orders to be placed and traders waiting to get in.
Last week we pulled back, but didn't quite reach the supply area. We also didn't fill the imbalance (yellow zone on chart) and the lower high here means liquidity is building above.
Lots of confluence here and logic dictates, that if we move up to fill the imbalance and tap into the lower high liquidity, the supply zone is a high probability are for price to reverse.
As a target, I'm simply looking at last week's low.
But I believe we can go further than that. 1.092 is a logical area looking at daily chart. Feel free to use it for TP2. This is also my scratch level. If we move here before getting a retracement to the supply zone, I'm discarding the trade.
Summary:
AUDNZD 4H SELL SETUP
Supply & Demand Trade
Entry: 1.10605
SL: 1.1095
TP: 1.09525
Scratch level: 1.092
AUD/NZD SHORT SELL OPPOTUNITY VIEW.
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AUD/NZD: High-Vol Trendchannel breakAUD/NZD: High-Vol Trendchannel break
> month-long trendchannel broken to the downside
> Double top formation with first lower high inside of broken channel
> POC above current PX
> countertrend broken
> weekly high 2x rejected
> daily lows about to break
> little volume on way to tp