AUDJPY GOING DOWNSame as the other assets, after reaching one more time the HH KL, it is to go down, helped by the elections tuesday ;
be advised on these elections, could be the best or the worst for you.
AUDUSD
NZDJPY AIMING FOR THE LIMITNZDJPY is in an uptrend and trying to reach one more time the HH KL ;
once it s done, it is going straiggt to the ground, in addition to the elections tuesday ;
after that, it will eventually come back up but after a lonf zigzag period.
XAUUSD IS BACK !With a little more drawdown today and the beginning of next week, XAUUSD has showed everyone what it was capable of the past few days by reaching such high levels ;
It has to bounce on the double uptrend green limit, then go up and wait a little for the 5th of november ;
on this day markets will go nuts for every asset, so it seems like gold might be going for a big rally to the 2780/90s
US100 TOWARDS THE SKYWe missed the entry yesterday thinking it would bounce way harder than that, it actually took several hours to get back in an uptrend position ;
for now it seems a little corection to the LL is coming after the 15:30 rush ;
after that, US100 is going to the roof and taking the uptrend direction back.
AU:Will Positive Aussie Labor Data Hold as US Retail Sales Loom?The Australian Dollar (AUD) found support on Thursday following the release of positive labor market data. Australia's Employment Change rose by 64.1K in September, bringing total employment to a record-high 14.52 million. This strong labor data has provided a temporary boost to the AUD, despite broader market uncertainties. However, traders remain cautious ahead of the anticipated US Retail Sales data, which is expected to show a 0.3% increase for September, up from 0.1% in the previous month.
Technical Analysis and Market Positioning
From a technical perspective, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows a clear divergence in market sentiment. Retail traders appear to be strongly bullish on the AUD/USD, while smart money (institutional investors) has taken a bearish stance. This discrepancy often signals the potential for market reversals, as institutional players are generally more adept at positioning ahead of key market moves.
Additionally, when looking at seasonality trends from the Forecaster and considering key Supply and Demand areas, there’s a possibility that the AUD/USD could experience a new drop. However, this is likely to occur after a brief retracement, as the market digests both the Australian labor data and the upcoming US economic figures.
Outlook and Strategy
For now, we are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Given the mixed signals from the COT report and the seasonal factors at play, we prefer to remain on the sidelines until the situation becomes clearer. The upcoming US Retail Sales data, along with other market-moving news, will likely provide further direction for the AUD/USD in the days ahead. Once the market reacts to these key events, we will reassess and consider potential trade setups accordingly.
Patience is key, as the next few days could bring more clarity after the news impacts play out.
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Pre NFP Trade Analysis1st November
DXY: Stronger NFP, DXY bounce off 103.80 to trade up to 104.60. If 103.80 broken, could trade down to 103.45
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5925 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY Strength)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6545 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY Strength)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.28 SL 40 TP 120 (DXY Strength)
EURUSD: Buy 1.0905 SL 25 TP 100 Hesitation at 1.0950 (DXY Weakness)
USDJPY: Sell 151.40 SL 40 TP 200 Hesitation at 150.55 (DXY Weakness)
USDCHF: Buy 0.8710 SL 20 TP 40 (DXY Strength)
USDCAD: Sell 1.3915 SL 15 TP 30 (DXY Weakness)
Gold: Needs to stay below 2760, break 2740 could trade down to 2708
US100 ALMOST RIGHTWe got the move perfectly right, only we thought it would happen an hour later for the 15:30 session ;
now it is aiming at a conglomeration of KL and trend limits, meaning it will bounce hard at 15:30 when it finally reaches the limit ;
be advised.
US100 BREAKING THE UPTREND !!Possible new route for nasdaq as it has broken the green uptrend we were hoping that would never break ;
now it s sketchy, does it go all the way down and stops to the general uptrend, or does it also break that ?
it seems tough with RSI levels and current economic situations to break such a strong trend, but be ready for everything !
Looks Like Someone's Prepping for a Rocket Launch in AUD!Alright, alright, it seems like someone has seriously geared up for a rocket launch in the Australian dollar, and it’s happening in the next few days.
Looks like we might get some news dropped right after everything goes down, or maybe I’m just out of the loop.
A super aggressive portfolio, a Call Spread, popped up yesterday, and it looks like they’re still pouring in options today.
Targets for the futures are set at 0.68-0.6825. It’s like a rocket ready to go...))
AUDUSD BuysNeat markup. Will overview this on my next ECA session.
MSS on the hourly after trading into an old FVG. Clear OB and iFVG as current points of interest for buys.
US100/NASDAQ NEXT MOVEAfter successfully forecasting today's move (white line), this big drawdown was unexpected but it means two things :
- it has to correct before tonight
- it will not go under the green lower uptrend limit, because then it turns into a whole new trend and the 1D/4H/2H RSI is too low for any downtrend to start now.
It will go back up at 3:30 PM fot the big daily punch.
NEW IDEA FOR AUDUSD Examining the trend in the one-hour time frame, the Australian dollar/USD has broken the ceiling of the ascending channel upwards and is now below the important support interval in the range of -0.6561, provided that there is no closing of the four-hour candlestick. 0.6555, it can rise to the 161.8% Fibo resistance at $0.6608.
Levels discussed on Livestream 30th October30th October
DXY: Look to break 104.20 and 61.8%, to trade down to 104 and 103.80
NZDUSD: Buy 0.5990 SL 20 TP 60 (Counter Trend)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6580 SL 20 TP 50 (Bearish Channel)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2960 SL 25 TP 50 (Break trendline0
EURUSD: Buy 1.0845 SL 20 TP 55 (Hesitation at 1.0870)
USDJPY: Ranging between 152.70 and 153.86 (looking for breakout potential)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8690 SL 15 TP 35
USDCAD: Sell 1.3875 SL 30 TP 60
Gold: Could retrace to 2770, look for rejection and buying opportunities
AUDUSD - Inflation in Australia, under control?!The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bearish channel. In case of an upward correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a supply zone and sell within that zone with a suitable risk reward.
Yesterday, China urged the United States to change its stance on Taiwan’s independence, asking it to clearly state “we oppose Taiwan independence” instead of “we do not support Taiwan independence.” The United States, however, refused to make this change and continues to maintain informal relations with Taiwan, providing support and military supplies to the island.
Additionally, reports indicate that China’s top legislative body is reviewing a new financial package valued at over 10 trillion yuan, likely to be announced on November 8. China plans to raise 10 trillion yuan in new debt over the coming years through special treasury and local government bonds. This financial package includes 6 trillion yuan to mitigate local government debt risks and up to 4 trillion yuan for purchasing idle lands and properties.
Should Donald Trump win the U.S. presidential election, China may unveil an even stronger financial package. Moreover, China is planning to issue over $1.4 trillion in additional debt in the coming years.
A poll by Ipsos shows that the popularity gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump among registered voters has narrowed to one percentage point, with Harris at 44% support, just one percent ahead of Trump at 43%.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at least once more in 2024. He also remarked that the decline in U.S. interest rates will be less than people expect.
Australia’s inflation data largely met expectations and was insufficient to prompt any change in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate decision. Annual inflation for the third quarter stood at 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9%. The monthly rate was 2.1%, with the total inflation at 2.8%.
This annual inflation rate is the lowest since early 2021; however, core inflation remains above the RBA’s 2-3% target. The reduction in annual inflation is mainly due to government subsidies and lower gasoline prices, although service inflation remains high.
The RBA will hold a meeting on November 4-5, and given these figures, no rate cut is expected during this session. The final meeting will be on December 9-10, and no rate cut is anticipated for that session either. February remains the anticipated timeframe for analysts, though if the labor market remains strong and core inflation is high, a rate cut may be delayed until April or May.
CADJPY GOING UP !!Reaching the uptrend ceiling ;
Taking a little longer to go up but will surely do ;
After that some zigzag and it will come back to the same levels.
AUDUSD H4 | Bullish bounce off 127.2%?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 0.6537, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibo extension
Our take profit will be at 0.6587, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 0.6473, which is a support level.
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audusd buy signal
. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
close signal 👇👇👇
EURJPY DOUBLE SIDEReaching the uptrend limit and then a very high RSI, EURJPY will then proceed to fall ;
it will reach one of these KL, not sure which one, before regaining a low RSI and getting ready to go back up ;
some zigzag might be there as well when it reached the limit.
AUDJPY GOING UP SOONEven though we missed it a little as you can see on our blue line, we had the correct idea ;
AUDJPY is still correcting this massive gap and getting a little lower before getting up again and reaching the blue zone.
However the ground is not super strong and it could break and become an interesting short posision.
AUDUSD Is Approaching A Decent ResistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.65700 zone, AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.65700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
BUY AUDJPYPossible movement for the next hours, even though the RSI tends to show a little downtrend for now, so not sure about this one.
However it is moving strongly in reaction to JPY and showing a will to go back up, we had it also yesterday but it got delayed because of the big fall today.
You Should SELL AUDUSDAUDUSD is having a strong bearish pressure. Price is trading below the 50 and 200 ema from 30min to weekly timeframe.
XAU/USD : More Fall Ahead ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Gold chart in the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that last week, before filling the gap between $2715.5 and $2716.5, the price started rising from the $2717 area and managed to reach $2747.7. After closing at this level on Friday, we saw that over the weekend, with global markets closed, Israel launched its attack on Iran. However, since this attack was lighter than expected, the markets opened today with a large negative gap in gold. The price opened around $2734, with over a 130-pip gap, but within a few hours, this gap was filled as the price rose to $2744.
As you can see on the chart, there are currently two remaining price gaps. One is between $2715.5 and $2716.5, and the other is between $2744.5 and $2747.2. Which gap do you think will be filled first?
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
