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AUDUSD

AUDUSD - stronger dollar, what consequences will it have for us?The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the support range, we can see the bottom of the downward channel and buy in that range with a suitable risk reward. If the downward momentum decreases, we will look for buy positions on the support range. According to the official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday, Australia’s retail sales index increased by 0.8% in November compared to the previous month. In October, the index had grown by 0.5% after being revised down from an initial 0.6%. However, this growth fell short of market expectations, which had predicted a 1.0% rise. Additionally, newly released foreign trade data from the ABS on Thursday showed that Australia’s trade surplus reached AUD 7,079 million in November, surpassing the market forecast of AUD 5,750 million and the previous month’s revised figure of AUD 5,670 million (adjusted from AUD 5,953 million). Details of the report indicate that Australian exports rose by 4.8% month-over-month in November, compared to a revised 3.5% in October. Meanwhile, imports grew by 1.7% in November, compared to a flat 0% growth in October (adjusted from 0.1%)Meanwhile, JPMorgan reported that the US dollar has maintained its value contrary to expectations and may continue to do so. However, the bank’s analysts believe further appreciation of the dollar is limited. Key Factors Influencing the US Dollar • Global Growth Divergence and Central Bank Policies: Disparities in global economic growth have led to significant differences in monetary policies. Additionally, the yield gap between US 10-year bonds and those of key trading partners has reached its highest level since 1994. • Sustained Strength of the US Dollar: Despite two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, the US dollar appreciated by 7%. The real effective exchange rate (REER) also remains near its historical peak. • Reasons Behind Dollar Strength: 1. Economic Growth Disparity: The US economy grew by 2.7% in 2024, compared to 1.7% growth in other developed markets. 2. Monetary Policy Differences: The limited rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (44 basis points projected for 2025) compared to larger cuts by the European Central Bank (110 basis points) and rate hikes by Japan (47 basis points) have sustained the yield gap. 3. Policy Shifts: New government policies, such as domestic production support, tariffs, and deregulation, could bolster economic growth and strengthen the dollar. • Long-term Constraints on Dollar Strength: 1. The US dollar is historically overvalued (two standard deviations above the 50-year average), indicating limited room for further appreciation. 2. Structural issues, such as the US trade deficit (4.2% of GDP as of September 2024), could eventually pressure the dollar downward. • Impacts of Dollar Strength: 1. Challenges for US-Based Investors: A strong dollar could reduce the performance of international companies and increase export costs. 2. Negative Effects on US Companies with Extensive International Operations: These businesses might suffer due to the dollar’s strength. Assessing risks related to the dollar’s strength is essential for investors. While the dollar may continue to rise in the short term, structural factors and historical trends suggest significant downward pressure in the long term.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Australian dollar falls as core CPI dips lowerThe Australian dollar is lower for a second straight trading day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6214, down 0.27% at the time of writing. The Australian dollar dropped as low as 0.60% but has pared much of those losses. Australia's inflation report was a mixed bag in November. Headline inflation rose 2.3% y/y, up from 2.1% in the previous two months and above the market estimate of 2.2%. This marked the highest level since August and was partially driven by a lower electricity rebate for most households. At the same time, the trimmed mean inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia's preferred core inflation gauge, fell from 3.5% to 3.2% in November. This reading is close to the upper limit of the RBA's target band of 2%-3% and supports the case for the RBA to join the other major central banks in lowering rates. The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35% at nine consecutive meetings but is this prolonged pause about to end? In the aftermath of today's inflation report, the money markets have priced in a quarter-point hike in February at over 70%. Australia releases the quarterly inflation report for the fourth quarter on Jan. 29 and if inflation is lower than expected, expectations of a rate cut will likely increase. The US economy has been solid and this week's services and employment indicators headed higher. The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.1 in December, up from 52.1 and above the market estimate of 53.3. JOLT Job Openings jumped to 8.09 million in November and 7.8 million in October. The market is looking ahead to Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to drop to 154 thousand, compared to 227 thousand in November. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6214 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6182 0.6250 and 0.6282 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUDUSD - LongAUDUSD Analysis - LONG 👆 In this Chart AUDUSD D1 Timeframe: By Nii_Billions. ❤️This Chart is for AUDUSD market analysis. ❤️Entry, SL, and Target is based off our Strategy. This chart analysis uses multiple timeframes to analyze the market and to help see the bigger picture on the charts. The strategy uses technical and fundamental factors, and market sentiment to predict a BULLISH trend in AUDUSD, with well-defined entry, stop loss, and take profit levels for risk management. 🟢This idea is purely for educational purposes.🟢 ❤️Please, support our work with like & comment!❤️
Long
by Nii_Billions
Levels discussed on livestream 6th Jan 20256th January 2025 DXY: Consolidating along 108.90, could test 108.50 (61.8%) before trading higher again to 109 round number (below 108.50 could test bottom of channel) NZDUSD: Sell 0.5575 SL 30 TP 60 AUDUSD: Sell 0.6265 SL 30 TP 60 GBPUSD: Wait for reaction at 1.25 round number resistance level EURUSD: Look for rejection of 1.04, Sell 1.0315 SL 30 TP 90 USDJPY: Sell 157.65 SL 50 TP 150 EURJPY: Buy 163.55 SL 40 TP 120 GBPJPY: Sell 196.40 SL 50 TP 150 USDCHF: Look for reaction at bottom of channel 0.9060 or support level 0.9020 USDCAD: Ranging between 1.4335 and 1.4465 XAUUSD: Break 2624 to trade down to 2610 (bullish trendline)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
GBPUSD Analysis: Falling Wedge Pattern and Potential 500+ Pips The forex pair GBPUSD is currently trading at 1.247, with a target price set at 1.290, presenting a potential gain of 500+ pips. The market is forming a falling wedge pattern, a bullish technical setup that often signals a potential breakout to the upside. This pattern indicates a gradual narrowing of price movement, with sellers losing momentum and buyers preparing for a reversal. Traders are closely watching for a breakout above the wedge, which would confirm the bullish bias. A breakout could trigger significant upward movement, aligning with the target price. This setup provides an attractive risk-to-reward opportunity for buyers. However, confirmation through price action and volume is essential before entering a trade. Risk management is critical due to forex market volatility. Monitoring momentum indicators can help validate the expected breakout. The next move depends on how the pair reacts at key resistance levels.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
Analyzing AUDCAD Falling Wedge Breakout and 200+ Pips Target The forex pair AUDCAD is currently trading at 0.89700, with a target price of 0.91500, indicating an upward potential of 200+ pips. A falling wedge breakout has occurred, which is a bullish technical pattern that often signals a trend reversal or continuation of an uptrend. The breakout suggests buyers have taken control, pushing the price higher. The retesting phase has also been completed, confirming the breakout's validity and strengthening the bullish outlook. Traders often wait for retests as confirmation to enter trades with reduced risk. The target price aligns with the expected upward momentum post-breakout. With the breakout confirmed, buyers might find this setup attractive. Price action and momentum indicators should be monitored for sustained movement toward the target. Risk management is crucial, given forex volatility.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
AUDUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce ?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 0.6217, which is a pullback support close to the 38.2% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 0.6242, a multi-swing high resistance. The stop loss will be placed at 0.6199, which is an overlap support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
AUDUSD Will Go Up From Support! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for AUDUSD. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 0.621. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 0.633 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
Potential Counter Trend Trade for a possible longFX:AUDUSD has been on a steady drop looking at it on the monthly time frame. However it has come to a major Monthly support area and showing some significant slow down in momentum. It is very more than likely to see price bounce off that area and start a bullish move. I will however wait for a break of an immediate structure on the H4 TF retest the area before taking a trade. I recommend proper risk management if considering this trade. Past results does not guarantee future results
Long
by Mbjoey
AUD/USD at Support into 2025 OpenAUD/USD is testing downtrend support here into the start of the month / year at the lower parallel. The focus is on possible inflection off the 2022 low / yearly open at 6170/88 over he next few days. Bottom line: Rallies would need to be limited to 6348/62 IF price is heading lower here with a close below this pivot zone exposing the 61.8% extension of the 2021 high / 78.6% retracement of he 2020 advance at 6022/45. Published a more in-depth review of this AUD/USD setup earlier today. MB
by FOREXcom
AUDUSD Clear cut triangle, extended move in the waitingThis beggining of the year it seems triangles are shaping up and extended moves following breakout are in the waiting. Following yesterday's idea, this one is similar but now on AUDUSD. A clear cut triangle appeared in the 1H chart and the breakout should be happening in the next 24 hours. Better to wait for the breakout to be confirmed in the 4H or ideally in the daily. Then, it is up to you how to play it. I have put a FIB retracement ranging between the main weekly support and resistance, starting from the 2020 low and the 2021 high. The FIB levels match very well the price action and offer good guidance.
by Taguspt
🦘🦘 Aussie Kangaroo Returns Home In The OutbackThe Australian dollar has been taking a bath. It’s gone from buying 71 US cents at the beginning of the year to netting you just 63.3 US cents against the benchmark greenback. The dollar is down over the last year against most currencies, and down over the past few weeks against almost every currency. The humble Aussie dollar is suffering in particular against European currencies: Pound Sterling, the Swiss Franc and the Euro. However, even in Japan where the AUD is up over the year so far, it is down in recent weeks. What’s going on? The answer is two-fold. 👉 America’s economy is stronger than expected. And China is weaker, so Chinese yuan has little to no chance of dethroning the US dollar, even as global de-dollarization happens. 👉 Australia gets hit on both of those trades. Difference between 10-Year United States and Australian Govt Debt becomes lower Technical graph for FX:AUDUSD indicates that Aussie has a lot down to deliver.
by PandorraResearch
2
AUDUSD to continue in the downward move?AUDUSD - 24h expiry Broken out of the channel formation to the downside. Trades at the lowest level in 26-months. Buying posted in Asia. Bespoke resistance is located at 0.6246. The previous swing high is located at 0.6246. We look to Sell at 0.6246 (stop at 0.6276) Our profit targets will be 0.6166 and 0.6146 Resistance: 0.6246 / 0.6271 / 0.6275 Support: 0.6179 / 0.6150 / 0.6130 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
Aussie H4 | Bearish downturn to extend further?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum. Sell entry is at 0.6242 which is a swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 0.6284 which is a level that sits above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 0.6184 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM