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AUDUSD

A strong rejectionPrice got rejected four times from the daily rejection block, initially engineered a supply zone that was mitigated, followed by a sweep. The liquidity sweep impulsively corrected the imbalance and significantly respected the demand zone at 0.65900. Then we experienced a hike to clear the liquidity created by the fair value gap which led to a minor decline to the hourly breaker block. From the 30 minute point of view we have the breaker as our base and price happened to make a sweep of liquidity and simultaneously mitigated the 30 minute order block. This indicates that we’re still in a bullish market because all the timeframes are in alignment and we currently have the 4h liquidity pool acting as our magnet. The anticipation here is for price to sweep the liquidity, mitigate the supply zone, provide us with the 5th retest to the daily rejection and we currently have a bullish engulfing candlestick to solidify this emerging hike before going bearish...
by tokelohomi
AUD/USD Coiling - Will We See an EOM Breakout?AUDUSD has carved out a sideways range between 0.6570 and 0.6710 dating back to early May, and even within that range, the pair has spent the last two weeks putting in a series of higher lows and lower highs. This price action has created a symmetrical triangle pattern, hinting at a potential higher-volatility breakout heading into the US Core PCE report at the end of the week/month. A bullish breakout would initially target the top of the range at 0.6710, and further toward 0.6800 in time, whereas a bearish breakdown could open the door for a drop toward 0.6500 or lower. -MW
by FOREXcom
Australian dollar edges lower, CPI nextThe Australian dollar is slightly lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6638 in the North American session, down 0.27% on the day. Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index flexed some muscle earlier on Tuesday but that didn’t help the Australian dollar. The index jumped 1.7% in June, a strong turnaround after three straight declines. Despite the improvement, consumer confidence remains deep in negative territory, at 83.6. The index has been mired below 100 for over two years as pessimistic continue to outnumber optimists by a wide margin. Consumers have long been concerned that the Reserve Bank of Australia could raise interest rates, which at 4.35% are already at a 12-year high. The RBA remains concerned about sticky inflation and has warned that it could raise rates if inflationary pressures don’t ease. Inflation rose in April from 3.5% to 3.6% and May CPI, which will be released on Wednesday, is expected to rise to 3.8%. If inflation did accelerate in May, it could set up another hold in rates and possibly a rate hike when the RBA meets in July. The RBA left interest rates at 4.35% at the June meeting for a seventh straight time and discussed the possibility of a rate hike at that meeting. Inflation will be on center stage again on Thursday with the release of the Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations, which is expected to rise to 4.3% in June, after a 4.1% gain in May. In the US, Conference Board Consumer Confidence dipped to 100.4 in June, down from the revised 101.3 in May and just above the market estimate of 100.0, which separates pessimism from optimism. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6635. Below, there is support at 0.6591 0.6685 and 0.6729 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUDUSD...UT Curve AnalysisAnalysts have expressed cautious optimism regarding the AUDUSD uptrend, taking into account the underlying fundamentals. However, it is important to note that there are certain factors that need to be considered: Positive for AUD: The Federal Reserve's consideration of a more accommodative approach, including the possibility of interest rate cuts, may have an impact on the relative strength of the Australian dollar (AUD) compared to the US dollar (USD). China Rebound: China is a major trading partner for Australia, and its economic recovery could boost demand for Australian commodities, strengthening the AUD. Uncertainties: US Inflation Data: Upcoming US CPI data is a key factor. Lower-than-expected inflation could further weaken the USD and support the AUD uptrend. In general, the underlying factors appear to favor a sustained upward movement in AUDUSD. However, the future strength and duration of this upward trend will be influenced by upcoming economic data and global market conditions.
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
Levels discussed on Livestream 25th June25th June DXY: Look for reaction if the price test 105.60 level (38.2%), rejection, look for price to trade down to 105.20. Breakthrough, price to test 105.90 NZDUSD: Buy 0.6155 SL 20 TP 60 AUDUSD: Sell 0.6670 SL 20 TP 80 (hesitation at 0.6630) USDJPY: Becareful, possible intervention area Buy 160 SL 30 TP 100 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2675 SL 20 TP 50 EURUSD: Sell 1.0715 SL 20 TP 40 USDCHF: Buy 0.8955 SL 20 TP 55 USDCAD: Buy 1.3625 SL 20 TP 40 (CPI data release pending) Gold: Stay above 2317 to remain bullish
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
1
Australian dollar calm ahead of consumer confidenceAustralian dollar has started the week quietly. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6648 early in the North American session, up 0.11% on the day. Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment early on Tuesday. Consumer confidence has been weak and fell 0.3% in May to 82.4, following a 2.4% decline in April. Consumers have been pessimistic about the weak economy and concerns that sticky inflation could prod the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike interest rates. The RBA has maintained its stance of “higher for longer”, holding rates at 4.35% for the past five meetings. The central bank hasn’t shied away from warning that it could raise rates if inflationary pressures don’t ease. The April CPI report surprised on the upside, rising from 3.5% to 3.6%, above the market estimate of 3.5%. The May CPI report will be released on Wednesday, with a market estimate of 3.8%. If inflation does rise again, we will no doubt hear the RBA express its concern and reiterate that rate hikes remain on the table. The economy is barely treading above water and posted a weak 0.1% gain in the first quarter, but the labor market, which is surprisingly tight, continues to confound the RBA and has dampened any hope of a rate cut in the near term. There are no US releases on Monday but we’ll hear from two FOMC members, Christopher Waller and Mary Daly. Investors will be hoping for some insights about the Fed’s rate path. The Federal Reserve has been hawkish as inflation has been stickier than anticipated. The markets have priced in a rate cut in September at around 60%, according to CME’s FedWatch. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6655. Above, there is resistance at 0.6685 0.6591 and 0.6541 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Aussie H4 | Approaching 78.6% Fibonacci resistanceThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 0.6672 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 0.6714 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 0.6626 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook – Managing political risk• Month and quarter-end flows to impact price action • The US Presidential elections kick up a gear • Managing risk around the French 1st round vote • US Core PCE is the marquee data point of the week • Australia's monthly CPI a potential kicker for the AUD • Central bank meetings due this week • Long MXN back in vogue For the week ahead there is a fair bit for traders to prepare for and to manage, with event risk spanning economic data, politics, and central bank meetings. We also gear up for month- and quarter-end, so the usual opaque portfolio rebalancing flows impacting price action, as well as the aftermath of a monster options expiry (OPEX) and ETF rebalance on Friday. I’ve never personally found any edge aligning trades to what I’m hearing for the needs of portfolio rebalancing flows. However, as the big portfolios rebalance (e.g. from pension funds) the flows can impact equity, FX and fixed income and produce moves that can’t readily be explained by the data and news flow – any factor that alters our trading environment needs to be considered. The US election kicks into gear On the political front, the US Presidential election kicks into gear with the first debate held between Biden and Trump (21:00 EST / 02:00 BST / 11:00 AEST) likely getting sizeable attention. Prediction markets currently have Trump ahead by 5ppt, which is partly a function of Trump’s superior polling in the six key battleground/swing states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia). While the debate may not stoke market volatility, it will be symbolic given it’s the earliest live debate since 1960, and Biden will be out to prove a point to the American voters. As the gloves come off it could get ugly on the podium, and we watch to see if the debate affects polling. Managing exposures into the French first-round vote For those trading the EUR, FRA40, and European equities more broadly, the first round of voting in the French election plays out on Sunday. This will have many assessing the risk of holding exposures into the weekend vote, with the very real prospect of gapping on the Monday open. We can take a stab at the outcome and base-case scenario the market is currently pricing based on the French-German 10y yield spread and current pricing in EU assets, and from that loosely devise a playbook for a potential market reaction upon learning who will go through to the second-round vote scheduled for 7 July. Given recent polling, I’d argue the broad consensus is currently seeing two outcomes – either Le Pen’s RN party gaining a working majority and cohabiting with Macron as President or a hung parliament with the RN party the largest contribution. I’m not sure we get a massive market response if this remains the base case after the first vote. The big reaction comes with a better outcome for the left-wing NFP coalition, where they seem to have momentum with recent polls have shown greater support for the coalition - the greater sway the left has on fiscal policy the more negative the reaction in the EUR, FRA40 and broad EU assets. EURUSD holds below 1.0700 but is finding some support below the figure. Should the France-German 10yr yield spread widen past 85 to 90bp this week (its currently at 80bp) then EURUSD could be headed towards the 16 April lows of 1.0601, with EURCHF rolling over and eyeing a move back down to 0.9500. ECB 1- & 3-year CPI expectations (due on Friday) could promote some EUR volatility, but it will be trumped by market participants positioning ahead of Sunday's vote. US core PCE inflation a risk event On the US data side, US core PCE inflation is on Friday and is the marquee event risk, with expectations the Fed’s inflation gauge prints +0.1% m/m, and +2.6% y/y. The last two US PCE inflation prints have come in above expectations, but historically the outcome of the data falls in line with consensus. That said, if we do get an upside surprise and a year-on-year pace at or above 2.8%, this outcome would likely impact be taken badly by equity markets and result in solid USD buying. We get relief in risky assets, USD selling, should we see the month-on-month pace come in at 0.00% m/m and certainly if we see a decline. We also get US consumer confidence where the consensus sees a lower read at 100 (vs 102 in the prior read), a Q1 GDP revision, personal income, and spending. We also get 9 Fed speakers through the week, although I don’t see these being too much of a risk, and we need to hear speeches post-PCE inflation data. USDJPY and USDCNH both get focus, where the upside moves in USDCNH seem to be spilling over into strength in other USD pairs – the PBoC should look to curb yuan weakness this week, but higher levels in the USDCNH cross-rate should see lend upside support for the USD. On the data side, we see Japan's Tokyo CPI (due Friday) and China PMIs (on Sunday), where the latter offers some degree of gapping risk in Chinese markets and the China proxies (AUD, NZD, CLP) on Monday. The client’s focus is on a potential break of ¥160 (in USDJPY) and whether we start to hear more from the MoF on JPY intervention – Japan rates now only price 4bp of hikes for the July BoJ meeting, and the market is happy to hold JPY shorts despite the likelihood the BoJ drastically reduce the pace of JGB buying. The rate of change and slope of the trend in USDJPY is the bigger issue though. Aussie CPI in play AUD and AUS200 traders will be watching the May monthly CPI read, with the consensus eyeing a lift in headline CPI to 3.8% (from 3.6%). The notable focus will be on services inflation, which keeps the threat of an August hike on the table, so this monthly print will set expectations for the all-important Aus Q2 CPI (due 31 July), which could go some way in influencing if the RBA do consider a hike in August. We also hear from RBA members Kent (Wed 09:35 AEST) and Hauser (Thursday 20:00 AEST). Prefer AUD upside vs currencies where the central bank is cutting or holds an easing bias (EUR, GBP & CHF). I also like AUDNZD from a central bank divergence play and would be adding to longs on a daily close above the 50-day MA (1.0883). On the central bank front, we see meetings in Sweden (expected to leave rates at 3.75%), Mexico (unchanged at 11%), Turkey (unchanged at 50%) and Columbia (50bp cut to 11.25%). The MXN is certainly looking perky, with a blend of short covering and aggressive longs emerging late last week – USDMXN eyes support at 18.0514 and should test this soon. Driving the MXN we’ve seen several more market-friendly appointments in the AMLO cabinet, but we’re also seeing carry trades working well as a strategy, and this week should refocus the market on MXNs compelling fundamental characteristics, with high real policy rates and improved forward rates offering excellent carry. Long MXNJPY is in beast mode at this point but comes with intervention risk. With the moves seen in US equity on Friday, we start the week with the ASX200, HK50, and NKY225 all looking like they open on the back foot, with our opening call 0.2% lower a piece. I remain biased to trade a range in the ASX200 (7850 to 7650) and NKY225 of 39,340 to 37,860, with a small bias that we see lower levels of these ranges tested. Good luck to all.
by Pepperstone
AUDUSD I Price is ranging on the daily I How to Approach ItWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** AUDUSD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
by BKTradingAcademy
AUDUSD Under Pressure! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for AUDUSD is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 0.6671 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 0.6639 My Stop Loss - 0.6693 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
AUDUSD: Multiple Rejections, Potential ReversalPrice has recently rejected this level multiple times. As-well-as multiple rejections and long-wick candlesticks, we have a rounding top chart pattern. I anticipate price will continue to reject this level and eventually breakout of the uptrend line, suggesting a bearish bias. **Rationale:** ~ Area of resistance ~ Multiple rejections ~ Long-wick candlesticks ~ Rounding top ~ Break of trendline --- **Disclaimer:** My trading ideas are market predictions and therefore should be viewed as such. As an intraday trader (scalper), I use my observations to identify potential trade opportunities on the higher time frames. I then aim to pinpoint key entry points on the lower time frames. Entries should always be verified by additional confirmations. --- #scalping #intraday #daytrading
Short
by Forexity
AUD/USD to Surge: Exploiting Soft CPI and Fed Rate Cut DynamicsHello Traders, In today's trading session, we are closely monitoring AUD/USD for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.66100 zone. AUD/USD is currently trading in an uptrend and is in a correction phase, bringing it closer to the key support and resistance area at 0.66100. This level has historically served as a significant pivot point for price action, making it an attractive entry point for long positions. Fundamentally, recent developments have bolstered our outlook for AUD/USD. Yesterday's CPI data came in softer than expected, indicating that inflationary pressures are lower than anticipated. This softer inflation data suggests a more subdued economic environment, reducing the urgency for aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. In response to the soft CPI data, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates during the latest FOMC meeting. This dovish move is expected to weigh heavily on the USD, as lower interest rates typically lead to a weaker currency. Consequently, a weaker USD enhances the appeal of the AUD, supporting our bullish view on AUD/USD. Given these fundamental factors, the 0.66100 zone presents a strategic opportunity for buying AUD/USD. Trade safely, Joe
Long
by JoeChampion
9
AUDUSD Is Going Down! Short! Take a look at our analysis for AUDUSD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 0.667. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 0.665 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
AUDUSD - Basic Fibo retracementAUDUSD is not my favorite pair but the setup is undeniable :) We made the hit trade today with Eurchf, save your profits, spend less on this trade. It's friday, go into weekend with a peace of mind. We will be looking into sells if the price retraces here with a high preassure to our limit orders as in the next 2-3 hours, till NY open. Basic fibo reversal trades based on 2 entries 1st entry: Fibo 0.5 level - RR 1:3.2 - Risk: 100$ 2nd entry: Fibo 0.618 level - RR 1:7.6 - Risk: 100$ Total Risk: 200$ Total Profit: 1000$ Total RR 1:5
Short
by The_SOB
2
AUDUSD Medium-term sell signalThe AUDUSD pair has been trading sideways since the May 16 High, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The dominant pattern has been a Triangle going back to the October 13 2022 market bottom and the current consolidation is taking place right at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the pattern. As you can see, this is quite similar to the Q2-Q3 2023 price action, which after the Triangle top rejection, it declined below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. Even the 1D RSI sequences between the two fractals look similar. As a result, we turn bearish on this pair, targeting 0.63450 (Fib 1.236 ext). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1