Aussie H4 | Overlap support at 23.6% Fibonacci retracementThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.6729 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.6699 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 0.6761 which is a pullback resistance.
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AUDUSD
Levels discussed on livestream 8th July8th July
DXY: Consolidating on 105 support (61,8%). Watch 105.10 for upside potential or break of 104.80 for downside (downside more likely)
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6160 SL 25 TP 55
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6760 SL 20 TP 110 (Hesitation at 0.68)
USDJPY: Buy 161.40 SL 20 TP 60
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2840 SL 30 TP 60 (Test and reject resistance level)
EURUSD: Buy 1.0860 SL 20 TP 55
USDCHF: Sell 0.8935 SL 20 TP 40
USDCAD: Likely to retrace down to 1.36, look for reaction at support level
Gold: Break above 2390 could trade up to 24040 (DXY weakness)
AUDUSD Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
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WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST June 8-12th Part 2: FX PairsThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD, CHF, JPY
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AUD breaking out of downtrendAUD/USD Breaks Key Resistance
Overview:
The FX:AUDUSD pair has shown significant signs of a trend reversal after being in a downtrend since 2021. The pair reached a low just below $0.62 and has since made a strong recovery.
Key Technical Points:
1. Trend Reversal:
- The pair has broken out of the descending trendline that has been intact since 2021.
- This breakout is a crucial signal indicating a potential shift from the prolonged bearish trend to a bullish phase.
2. Moving Averages:
- The price has successfully crossed above the weekly 50-period Moving Average (50MA), which often acts as a significant resistance level.
- The next key target is the weekly 200-period Moving Average (200MA). The convergence of the 200MA with the Fibonacci retracement levels adds to its importance as a resistance zone.
3. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
- The price is currently approaching the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. A successful breach of this level could propel the pair towards the 0.618 retracement level.
- The 0.618 Fibonacci level aligns closely with the 200MA, making it a critical resistance zone. This confluence strengthens the resistance at this level, which lies around the $0.72 area.
4. Key Resistance and Support Levels:
- Resistance: The immediate resistance is at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Beyond this, the $0.72 zone, which coincides with the 0.618 retracement and the 200MA, is the next major resistance.
- Support: On the downside, the broken trendline and the weekly 50MA now act as crucial support levels. Additionally, the $0.62 level, which marked the recent low, remains a significant support zone.
Outlook:
The breakout above the downtrend line and the 50MA, coupled with increasing volume, suggests a bullish outlook for the AUD/USD pair. If the pair manages to break above the 0.382 retracement level, it could head towards the $0.72 area, which is reinforced by the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the 200MA. Traders should watch for consolidation around these key levels and the reaction at the $0.72 zone to gauge the sustainability of this bullish trend.
Conclusion:
The AUD/USD pair's technical landscape has shifted favorably for bulls after a prolonged downtrend. The current breakout and the crossing of key moving averages signal potential for further upside. However, traders should remain cautious around the $0.72 resistance zone, as it represents a critical juncture that could determine the next phase of the trend.
AUD/USD: One of better options for US dollar bearsThe AUD/USD is the one to watch in the event we see a negative dollar reaction to today's US jobs report, which is due for release shortly. A headline print of 191K is expected, but watch out for revisions to prior months' data too.
AUD/USD's recent performance points higher
The AUD/USD has been performing well due to strong Australian inflation and a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
It reached its highest level since January due to weaker-than-expected US data this week, which fueled speculation about a potential Fed rate cut in September.
Boost from Recent Data:
- Retail Sales: Increased by 0.6% month-over-month (m/m), surpassing the expected 0.3%.
- Building Approvals: Rose by 5.5% m/m, beating the forecasted 1.5%.
Inflation and Rate Hikes:
- Australia's latest inflation report showed a significant rise to 4.0% year-over-year (y/y), higher than the expected 3.8% and April's 3.6%.
- This has led investors to speculating over a 50% chance of another rate hike by the RBA, while expectations for a US rate cut are increasing.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis:
- The AUD/USD had been consolidating in a bullish continuation pattern near its highs.
- It recently broke out of this to reach its best level since January. If this breakout holds after NFP then a potential rise towards bigger resistance in the 0.6850-0.6900 range could get underway
- The line in the sand for me is at 0.6620, break below would be a bearish technical development
Trading Outlook:
- The combination of strong fundamentals and positive technical signals makes AUD/USD an attractive pair to trade on the long side, especially if US data continues to weaken.
- This pair is potentially a better long candidate compared to others like EUR/USD, which has election risks, or JPY/USD (I know, I know, it is USD/JPY), which faces potential government intervention.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
Pre NFP Analysis5th July (NFP day)
DXY: Consolidating on 105 support, If NFP is weaker, could trade down to 104.65. Stronger NFP, DXY needs to break 105.40 before considered bullish
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6150 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.67 SL 20 TP 75 (DXY strength)
USDJPY: Buy 161.15 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY strength)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2790 SL 20 TP 55 (DXY strength)
EURUSD: Buy 1.0850 SL 20 TP 55 (DXY weakness)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8960 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness)
USDCAD: Buy 1.3625 SL 25 TP 75 (CAD weakness, DXY strength)
Gold: Break above 2370 could trade up to 2390 (DXY weakness)
AUDUSD: Bullish Indices and Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a buying opportunity around 0.67000 zone, AUDUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.67000 support and resistance area.
We would also like to consider the positive correlation between indices and AUDUSD, indices are having a strong bullish momentum.
Independence Day (4th July) Analysis4th July (Independence Day)
DXY: Likely to consolidate between 105.15 and 105.45. Below 105, could trade down to 104.60. Break 105.45 could trade up to 105.90 (More likely scenario)
NZDUSD: Sell 0.61 SL 20 TP 45 (DXY strength)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.67 SL 30 TP 75
USDJPY: Range between 161.10 and 162
GBPUSD: Straddle: Buy 1.2780 SL 20 TP 80 or Sell 1.2725 SL 20 TP 100
EURUSD: Buy 1.0810 SL 25 TP 80 (hesitation at 1.0850) (DXY weakness)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8990 SL 30 TP 70 (dxy weakness)
USDCAD: Buy 1.3645 SL 25 TP 55 (dxy strength)
Gold: Break above 2370 could trade up to 2390
AudUsd trading idea (1:3 R:R) so finally we have a breakout on audusd from daily trinagle pattern as well as the consolidation from 1h we have marked
after the impulsive upside we have bullish fvg, it will be our entry point and sl will be as shown in chart below the pattern range
so
buy = 0.66913 , tr 0.67720 , sl 0.66652
this setup looks strong as the price has made a nice consolidation before breakout and also the pattern is on higher time frame of 1day and it has formed for almost many days it has good probability