AUD/USD) Technical Analysis Read The ChaptianSMC-Trading Point update
Technical analysis of the AUD/USD currency pair on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's the idea behind the analysis:
Key Elements:
1. Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance zone: Around 0.64350–0.64450
Support zone: Around 0.63450–0.63550
2. EMA (200):
The price is currently below the 200 EMA (0.64259), indicating bearish momentum.
3. RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is around 50, indicating neutral momentum, but recently crossed down, hinting potential bearish continuation.
4. Two Scenarios Proposed:
Bullish Scenario:
If the price breaks above the resistance zone (~0.64400), a bullish rally toward the upper target at 0.65139 is expected.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price gets rejected from the resistance and breaks below the current support zone, a bearish move toward 0.63461 is expected.
5. Current Bias:
Slight bearish bias as the price is below both the resistance zone and the 200 EMA, with a possible setup for a breakdown.
Mr SMC Trading point
Conclusion:
This is a classic breakout or breakdown setup. The price is near a decision point, and the next move will likely depend on whether it breaks above the resistance or below the support zone.
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow
AUDUSD
AUDUSD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 7h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 0.642.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 0.635 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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AUD/USD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
It makes sense for us to go short on AUD/USD right now from the resistance line above with the target of 0.638 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general downtrend on the previous 1W candle and the overbought situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the upper BB band.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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CADCHF watch the drop!!Good day traders, I recently share an Idea on CADCHF and if you go back and see what was outlined and how I ended the description. I highlighted that price might manipulate higher but as long as the overall bias remains we still on!!
How I look at the markets is I like to cross reference different pairs and GBPCAD confirmed my bearish outlook and so did AUDCAD. Study this setup till Sellside liquidity 🙏🏽
Long-Term Buy On The AussieThe most straightforward interpretation is that the down move that started back in February 2021 (red rectangle) was a correction of the previous rally (green rectangle) and ended at 0.5914. If this is correct, then we are in the early stages of a large upward move on the Aussie in the long-term that should reach at least the previous highs of 2021. This view will be in jeopardy if we break back below the previously mentioned support and will be completely negated on a break of the 2020 lows at 0.5510.
AUDUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISAUDUSD is currently trading at 0.6400 and forming a clear inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 12-hour timeframe, a well-known bullish reversal structure. The neckline breakout is nearing, and the recent price behavior shows strong bullish volume support, indicating growing confidence among buyers. With a projected target of 0.6700, this setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio as we transition into a potential trend shift in favor of the Aussie.
On the fundamental front, the Australian dollar is benefiting from a more resilient macro backdrop. Recent Australian jobs data came in stronger than expected, and the RBA remains cautious on rate cuts, especially with inflation pressures still lingering. Meanwhile, US inflation remains sticky, but with the Fed leaning toward a “higher-for-longer” stance rather than aggressive tightening, the greenback has shown signs of exhaustion against risk-linked currencies like AUD.
Technically, the price has respected the 0.6350 support level and is now forming higher lows. The breakout of the neckline around 0.6450 could accelerate bullish momentum, especially if accompanied by a strong candle close and continued volume confirmation. The next resistance lies at 0.6550, with the larger structure aiming for a test of 0.6700. This aligns with broader market sentiment rotating into commodity currencies, particularly as China stimulus hopes and improving risk appetite lift AUD.
AUDUSD remains one of the more technically clean setups among the majors right now. With a bullish pattern forming, supportive fundamentals, and improving sentiment across risk assets, this is a setup that deserves close attention from traders looking to ride the next impulsive leg to the upside.
Bullish bounce for the Aussi?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st, pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.6352
1st Support: 0.6292
1st Resistance: 0.6502
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EurGbp….‘CE of a balanced FVG’Good day traders, EurGbp has been on my watchlist for sometime now and I was hesitant because of the strength shown on DXY and that made me think we’d have a quiet day here yesterday.
With that been said the balanced price range is the grey rectangle shown on the chart and we can see that price showed a rejection by failing to close below the midpoint(CE). On the daily TF we are very much still bullish and till we shift structure lower on the daily TF, my overall sentiment remains. On the 4H TF we have a very bearish leg and from what we know price moves in a trend not a line so that also makes part of our thought process as well.
EurUsd…Daily FVG fill.Good day traders, I’m back with another setup but this setup is based on the GBPUSD setup I posted yesterday…go and look at it, to get the ideological.
To be honest I don’t think the drop in price to start the week was unexpected because of the strength shown last week on the DXY and on the idea I posted on GBpUSD I highlighted that last week XXX/USD pairs did not perform as the USD/XXX pairs. Which explains why we open with a bearish move lower and now I believe price is gonna do as I expected it on GBPUSD before taking liquidity but strength was too strong.
EurUsd on this respective TF we can see that it has been on a downward movement, and if we take a look at that healthy bearish leg. Price has left imbalances but the most visible one is the volume imbalance that I have shown you on the chart. For the rest of the day should price closer above the VI than I believe we can expect it to move higher till Thursday before DXY continues moving higher.
AUDUSD The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on AUDUSD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 0.6385 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 0.6401
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUD/USD On the weekly timeframe, AUD/USD approached a previously tested resistance zone around 0.63926, marked by prior price interactions. On the 1-hour chart, the price broke out above this level, signaling bullish momentum. On the 15-minute chart, a backtest of the breakout level occurred, with the price retesting the 0.63926 zone, now acting as support, before continuing upward.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Entered a buy trade at 0.64072 after the backtest confirmation.
Take Profit (TP): Targeting 0.64352, aligning with the next significant resistance level.
Stop Loss (SL): Placed at 0.63926, just below the breakout level, to protect against a false breakout.
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): The distance to TP is 280 pips (0.64352 - 0.64072), and the distance to SL is 146 pips (0.64072 - 0.63926), yielding an RR of approximately 1:1.9.
This AUD/USD trade capitalizes on a breakout and backtest strategy, offering a structured setup with a favorable risk-reward ratio for potential upside.
Market Analysis: AUD/USD Ready to Climb AgainMarket Analysis: AUD/USD Ready to Climb Again
AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 0.6370 support.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6370 and recovered higher against the US Dollar.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6410 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.6420. The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above the 0.6450 resistance against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.
The pair even cleared 0.6500 before there was a minor pullback. The recent low was formed at 0.6370 and the pair is again rising. The bulls pushed the pair above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6514 swing high to the 0.6370 low.
Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6410. The pair is now consolidating above the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near the 0.6440 zone.
The first major resistance might be 0.6460 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6514 swing high to the 0.6370 low. An upside break above the 0.6460 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6515 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6550 resistance zone.
If not, the pair might correct lower. Immediate support sits near the 0.6410 level. The next support could be 0.6370. If there is a downside break below the 0.6370 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6320 zone. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6300.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Bullish continuation?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.6331
1st Support: 0.6266
1st Resistance: 0.6497
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Week of 5/11/25: AUDUSD AnalysisDaily is bullish, so in the future price possibly will trend up.
In the meantime 4h and 1h are bearish but has reached a critical daily demand zone at the extreme of daily structure.
So far 1h internal is bullish, so we are still looking for longs cautiously until structure is broken.
Major news:
China trade talks - Monday
CPI - Tuesday
PPI/Unemployment - Thursday
AUDUSD LONG FORECAST Q2 W20 D12 Y25AUDUSD LONG FORECAST Q2 W20 D12 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily order block rejection
✅15’ order block identified
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure to be confirmed
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Potential bearish drop?AUD/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6431
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6349
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.6349
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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GBPUSD…inverse FVGGood day traders I have a lot of great setups but I believe this one can be a big mover going into the new week.
1D- Before going into more details I hope the inverse FVG is visible because that’s the area of interest, for the most part of last week was bearish indicating that US dollar for the upcoming week might continue with the strength shown last week. Price has broken structure lower but the way it broke price is not in a convincing way so keep an open mind to manipulation but overall the inverse is our area of interest. Monday and Tuesday we can expect price to move higher first than make a run lower since last week the move did not match the USD/XXX moves.
4H- Here we saw market shift lower to be in sync with the daily solidifying our weekly price movement bias. Here I’m not gonna say much cause the idea is based of the daily TF.
NZDUSD - Elliott Wave Setup: Eyes on the Buy Zone!NZDUSD - 3D Chart Elliott Wave Outlook
We've been tracking NZDUSD over the years and each move continues to align with Elliott Wave Theory.
The current structure is unfolding as a large ABC corrective pattern.
- Wave A and the complex Wave B (WXY) are now complete.
- We're now in Wave C, and we expect it to target the highs of Wave A.
Recently, NZDUSD made a clear bullish impulse but has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks. This correction is likely to resolve with a bullish breakout.
We've marked a buy zone between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, which we believe is the ideal entry area. We'll be watching this zone closely for lower timeframe bullish confirmations like a break of structure (BOS) or trendline break.
Trade Plan:
- Wait for price to enter the buy zone
- Look for bullish confirmations (BOS, trendline break)
- Enter after confirmation, with stops below the corrective lows
- Targets: 0.63 (500 pips), 0.65 (700 pips)
Goodluck and as always, Trade Safe!
AUDUSD Bearish Breakout – Macro and Technicals AlignAUDUSD has broken below a rising wedge formation on the 4H chart, signaling a bearish continuation. With the Reserve Bank of Australia pausing rates and weak local data weighing on sentiment, while the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish hold due to sticky labor costs, this trade sets up well both technically and fundamentally. I'm watching for downside continuation toward 0.6379 and potentially 0.6350. The bearish bias is invalidated on a move above 0.6475.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Structure: Price broke down from a rising wedge and continues forming bear flags — each followed by further selling pressure.
Current Price Action:
Rejected sharply at ~0.6475 (last swing high)
Confirmed breakout with downside momentum
Key Support Levels:
0.6379 – minor structural support
0.6350 – major support zone from April
Resistance / Invalidation:
Above 0.6475 – would break the bearish structure and negate the setup
Bias: Bearish — clean structure, breakout momentum, and sustained lower highs
🌏 Fundamental Context
🇦🇺 Bearish AUD Drivers:
Weak domestic data:
Building Approvals: -8.8% vs -1.7% forecast
RBA on hold:
No rate hike in sight; cautious due to housing and China concerns
China slow-down:
PBOC cut rates and reduced reserve requirements — signals broader economic softness
🇺🇸 Bullish USD Drivers:
Fed holding firm:
Benchmark rate held at 4.25–4.50%
Labor costs surged +5.3% q/q
Productivity dropped -0.4%, reinforcing inflation concerns
Market repricing rate cuts:
Cuts now expected later in 2025 or even 2026
Political pressure from Trump:
Despite attacks on Jerome Powell, Fed appears unmoved
Trump teasing a “major trade deal” — potentially USD-positive if credible
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry Area: Watching 0.6420–0.6435 as a pullback zone for potential shorts
Target Levels:
First target: 0.6379
Second target: 0.6350
Stop Loss: Placed above 0.6475 (last swing high) to protect against false breakouts
Trade Thesis:
Technical structure supports downside continuation
Macro fundamentals favor USD strength and AUD weakness
Clean reward-to-risk if structure holds
🧭 Conclusion
AUDUSD setup is supported by a strong confluence of technical breakdown and macro divergence. With the Fed staying firm and the RBA cautious amid weak data, the fundamentals validate the bearish trend. As long as price stays below 0.6475, the outlook remains bearish, with 0.6379 and 0.6350 as the next logical levels. Caution around U.S. data releases or trade deal news is advised, but the path of least resistance remains downward.
AUDUSD: Channel Down aiming higher.AUDUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.946, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 53.336) trading between the 1D MA200 and 1D MA50. It is now on the middle (0.5 Fibonacci level) of the long term Channel Down and every bullish wave touched at least the 0.236 Fib. The trade is long, TP = 0.66200.
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EUR/USD: Bearish Structure Intact — Lower Lows Ahead? (READ)By analyzing the #EURUSD chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around 1.136. If the price manages to stay below the 1.1414 level, we can expect further downside from this pair. The possible bearish targets are 1.128, 1.11480, and 1.10 respectively.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban