AUD/USD Approaching Key Long-Term Support ZoneChart Analysis:
The Australian Dollar has fallen sharply and is now approaching a key support level near 0.6172, last tested in October 2022.
1️⃣ Support Zone:
The horizontal level at 0.6172 represents a critical long-term support area. A test of this level could attract significant attention from market participants.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement:
The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the larger upswing sits around 0.6042, which could act as an extended support level if the current zone is breached.
3️⃣ Moving Averages:
50-day SMA (blue): The pair remains well below this level, currently at 0.6524, signaling strong bearish momentum.
200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 0.6615, reflecting a broader downtrend in play.
4️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 30.54, nearing oversold territory, which could signal a potential short-term bounce or pause in the downtrend.
MACD: Deep in negative territory, with no clear signs of reversal as the MACD line continues to trend downward.
What to Watch:
Price action near 0.6172: Will the level hold, or will a break open the door for further declines toward 0.6042?
RSI divergence or bullish patterns near support could indicate the possibility of a rebound.
AUD/USD remains under significant pressure, with momentum favoring bears as the pair approaches a pivotal support zone.
-MW
AUDUSD
AUDUSD - Very bearish for the Aussie Dollar!Very bearish for the AUDUSD. The Aussie dollar is coming under pressure.
Breakout from the aqua colored symmetrical triangle to the downside. Note the AUDUSD was already on a secular long term down trend (under the red downtrend line).
Potential price target of red arrow at 55 cents, or worse still the 48 cent target of the early 2000s (green arrow).
AUD/USD Declines as RBA Holds Interest Rates SteadyThe AUD/USD pair is experiencing continued downward pressure following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% during its final policy meeting of the year. RBA Governor Michele Bullock articulated this choice at a press conference, highlighting that the interest rate has remained at this 12-year high for nine consecutive meetings in December. Currently, the price is trading around 0.6395, reflecting this bearish trend.
Market participants are keenly awaiting key economic data, including the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement and Thursday's unemployment claims, along with the Core Producer Price Index (PPI). These reports are anticipated to introduce considerable volatility into the market. Should favorable economic indicators emerge for the USD, the AUD/USD could potentially approach the next demand zone. At this time, we are not looking to initiate any positions but rather to monitor the price movement and await a possible reach toward that demand area.
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AUDUSD - What message will the Federal Reserve's dotplot have?!The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the channel ceiling, we can see the supply zones and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. If the downward momentum decreases, we will look for buy positions on the midline and bottom of the channel.
Investors are cautiously anticipating the key decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting. It is widely expected that the central bank will announce its third rate cut of the year and provide projections for 2025.
Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, noted that market participants are eagerly awaiting updates from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and any hints regarding the trajectory of future rate cuts. He stated, “We expect the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut this week, followed by four additional cuts next year.”
The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting is anticipated to confirm a quarter-point rate reduction while also providing updated projections for potential rate cuts in 2025 and possibly 2026.
Meanwhile, the U.S. services sector has expanded at its fastest pace since October 2021, injecting fresh momentum into the economy, even as the manufacturing sector faces a deeper downturn. The S&P Global services index rose from 56.1 to 58.5 in December, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, marking its lowest level in 55 months.
These figures highlight a widening gap between sustained growth in the services sector and further declines in manufacturing. Factory output and order volumes have dropped at a faster pace, while the cost of imported raw materials from China has risen due to concerns over potential tariffs from the Trump administration.
Following the release of this data, projections for real private gross investment growth in the fourth quarter dropped from 2.4% to 1.2%, while forecasts for real government spending growth in the same period rose from 2.4% to 2.6%. Additionally, U.S. holiday retail sales for 2024 are expected to reach a remarkable $979 billion.
According to a recent report by Fitch Ratings, declining demand poses the most significant risk to global commodity markets if the U.S. imposes new tariffs and affected countries retaliate.
Fitch has warned that potential U.S. tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico could weaken global economic growth, particularly in China, the world’s largest consumer of commodities. This could exert significant pressure on base metals, chemical products, and oil markets.
However, Fitch also noted that China’s economic stimulus measures could offset some of this pressure. At the same time, new tariffs on specific goods, such as steel and aluminum, could increase price volatility and disrupt trade routes.
Bloomberg reported that J.P. Morgan believes the upward trend in European government bonds is nearing its end. The firm now views Australia as the next promising market for stronger performance.
Kim Crawford of J.P. Morgan explained that there is limited room for further gains in Europe, as swap markets have already priced in the potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank. He also highlighted that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance, which has yet to reduce rates in this cycle, positions Australian bonds for stronger growth compared to other developed markets.
NZDUSD H1 Short At Market TP +100 pips🔸Hello traders, let's review the H1 chart for NZDUSD today. Price
contained withing sliding bear channel previously rejected multiple
times from overhead resistance.
🔸Currently expecting price to clear S/R and complete the
break of structure pattern near 5820 then dump to 5750 / 5700.
🔸Previously rejected from overhead resistance, sequence of lower
highs in progress and expecting yet another rejection into double top
and also re-action with the bear channel.
🔸Recommended strategy for NZDUSD traders: short at market now, SL 40 pips TP1 +60 pips TP2 +100 pips final exit at 5750. good luck traders!
🎁Please hit the like button and
🎁Leave a comment to support our team!
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Market Analysis: AUD/USD Sink Further, Losses Mount Market Analysis: AUD/USD Sink Further, Losses Mount
AUD/USD declined below the 0.6400 and 0.6375 support levels.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6400 level against the US Dollar.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6340 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6430 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6400 support against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.
The pair even settled below 0.6375 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6340. A low was formed at 0.6317 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6340 level.
There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6340. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6429 swing high to the 0.6317 low.
The next major resistance is near the 0.6375 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6429 swing high to the 0.6317 low, above which the price could rise toward 0.6385. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.6430 resistance.
A close above the 0.6430 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6500.
On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6320 zone. The next support sits at 0.6350. If there is a downside break below 0.6350, the pair could extend its decline. The next support could be 0.6320. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6300 support.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AUDUSD - Top-down Analysis ReviewThis is an AUDUSD top-down analysis using ICT concepts along with some of my own considerations. I demonstrate how I work my way down all the way from the 12-month timeframe to the daily timeframes. Everything is relevant, especially the bodies of the candles.
Read the chart this way and have insights you would otherwise never have.
- R2F
AUDUSD Is Bullish! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 0.633.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 0.637.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
AUD/USD Testing Key Support ZoneChart Analysis: The Australian Dollar is testing a critical support area as it hovers near 0.6375 and 0.6285 (pink horizontal lines), levels that have held firm multiple times over the past year.
1️⃣ Support Retest:
The price has approached this zone, which acted as support in November 2023 and March 2024. Traders often watch such levels for potential rebounds or breakdowns.
2️⃣ Moving Averages:
50-day SMA (blue): Trending downward, reflecting short-term bearish momentum.
200-day SMA (red): Flat-to-downward slope, signaling a weakening long-term trend.
The price remains firmly below both SMAs, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: Hovering near 36, indicating weak momentum but not yet oversold. Traders might monitor for any divergence signals.
MACD: Bearish momentum persists with the signal line below zero and no clear crossover in sight.
What to Watch:
If the price decisively breaks below 0.6285, it could open the door for further downside.
On the flip side, a rebound from this support zone might see a test of the 50-day SMA near 0.6550.
Monitor RSI for any bullish divergence and price action around these key levels.
The AUD/USD remains under pressure, with a critical support test underway. Traders may find clarity as price action unfolds near this zone.
-MW
AUDJPY - Growing SHORTS! Big Move Ahead!In one of our last AUDJPY analysis, we indicated that price looked foppish. Since then, we've had almost a 2000pip drop!
That big drop can be marked as wave 1 in our new bearish impulsive trend.
We are now in Wave 2, which is an ABC correction. We have completed Wave A (3 waves). We are now in Wave B (3 waves). We're currently in subwave b of wave B. Expecting subwave c to appear very soon.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for bearish price action on lower timeframe
- You can use trendline break, fibs or BOS to find the reversal point
- When entered, put stops above subwave B.
- Target: 91 (750pips)
4Week Chart
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
See our previous setups below:
AUDUSD BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisAUDUSD is moving in an UP trend channel.
The chart broke through the dynamic Resistance line, which now acts as support.
We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity GOLD
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
-------------------
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
AUDUSD Trade SetupFor those looking to enter this trade, you can take an entry now with a tight and light stop-loss.
For those who prefer a safer approach, wait for the break of wave 4, followed by a retest, and then enter. This method offers greater security.
The triangle pattern has formed successfully. However, keep in mind that most chart patterns are often designed to manipulate traders by breaking and moving against their positions.
As for me, I’m not concerned about such manipulations. I have a strict risk management plan in place, and I’ve identified two key entry zones as marked on the chart.
AUD/USD Analysis (1-Hour Timeframe)I'm monitoring AUD/USD closely as the price approaches a black trendline. If the trendline is broken, it could signal a bearish move.
My target for this setup is the green support level, which has historically acted as a strong zone of buyer activity. This area could present opportunities for either reducing short positions or watching for a potential bounce.
Key points:
Wait for confirmation of a trendline breakout.
Observe volume and candlestick patterns to validate the move.
Be cautious around the green support level for possible reversals.
Patience is essential for the best entry!
AUDUSD H1 | Bullish Rise?Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy entry at 0.6357, which is an overlap support close to the 78.6% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 0.6382, which is a pullback sistance level.
The stop loss will be placed at 0.6333, which is below multi-swing low support level.
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EURUSD GOING DOWNEUR/USD appears poised for a bearish move, supported by key technical indicators and chart structures. Price action has rejected a significant liquidity zone, suggesting strong selling pressure and the inability of buyers to hold higher levels. A confluence of resistance from a descending trendline and the 50-day EMA strengthens the bearish outlook.
On higher timeframes, a recent liquidity sweep at a key high has been followed by a sharp rejection, indicating trapped buyers and the potential for further downside. A break below the recent market structure low could trigger stop orders, accelerating the move toward the next major liquidity cluster. Watch for increasing momentum and volume as confirmation of this potential bearish shift.
+ responding to the liquidity rectangle, pushing down
GOLD BULLISHGold appears poised for a bullish breakout, supported by key technical indicators and chart structures. Price action has reclaimed a significant liquidity zone, suggesting strong buyer interest and absorption of supply. A confluence of dynamic support from an ascending trendline and the 50-day EMA further strengthens the bullish case.
On higher timeframes, a recent liquidity sweep at a key low has been followed by a strong rebound, indicating that sellers may be trapped and the market could pivot higher. A break above the recent market structure high could trigger stop orders, fueling momentum toward the next major liquidity cluster. Watch for increasing volume and momentum as confirmation of this potential upward move.
+ precisely the contrary of NASDAQ with a little more zigzag liquidity
Audusd AUD/USD rises to 0.6392, buoyed by weak US labor market reports. US Initial Jobless Claims hit a two-month high, fueling speculation of continued Fed policy easing. Australian employment exceeds expectations with 35.6K jobs added in November, unemployment dips to 3.9%The AUD/USD rose sharply and print a daily high of 0.6429 following Aussie’s data, but it has trimmed its gains, as strong US PPI figures, hint that the Federal Reserve would adopt a cautious approach on reducing interest rates.
Momentum turned slightly bullish in the near-term, but overall, the trend Is tilted to the downside as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish.
If AUD/USD buyers reclaim 0.6400, the next resistance would be the 0.6500 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.6568.
Conversely, if sellers stepped in and drag prices below the December 11 daily close of 0.6336, the pair might drop to 0.6300, before aiming toward October 23, 2023 swing low of 0.6270