AUD/USD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
AUD-USD uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 0.625 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the AUD/USD pair.
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AUDUSD
AUDUSD Bullish AUD/USD has successfully broken a strong resistance level, signaling bullish momentum. After the breakout, we may see a retracement to the previous resistance area, which could now act as support before the next leg up. If buyers continue stepping in, further upside movement is expected.
🔹 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Support: Retesting the previous resistance zone
✅ Bullish Confirmation: Holding above support could fuel further upside
Always follow proper risk management and wait for confirmation before entering trades
The RBA just cut by 25bp: Instant ViewThe RBA have just cut their cash rate for the first time since late 2020. Using their monetary policy statement and updated forecast, I provide my instant high-level view of what this could mean fir future policy - with an update to my AUD/USD outlook thrown in for good measure.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.6301
1st Support: 0.6259
1st Resistance: 0.6376
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AUD/USD: Australian Dollar Strengthens Ahead of RBA DesicionThe Australian dollar has been rising, gaining around 1.5% over the past three sessions against the U.S. dollar. The current bullish movement continues as the market awaits the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision in the coming hours. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points , bringing the new rate to 4.1%.
However, the market has already priced in this decision, as expectations for a rate cut have been consistent for several days. This has allowed upward momentum to persist, as any bearish reaction to the RBA's move may have already been absorbed into the price.
Additionally, as the trade war between the U.S. and China escalates, Australia's economic ties with China have strengthened, boosting confidence in the region and supporting a bullish outlook for the Australian dollar.
Breakout from Sideways Range
Until recently, AUD/USD had been trading within a key range, with resistance at 0.62923 and support at 0.61929. But the recent bullish move has broken through this resistance, leading to stronger buying pressure in the short term.
As long as price remains above the upper boundary of this range, the Australian dollar could maintain its upward momentum in the near term.
RSI Indicator: Overbought Signals?
Not everything is bullish, as the RSI indicator is now approaching 70, the overbought zone.
If the RSI remains above this level for the next few sessions, it could signal an imbalance between buyers and sellers, as well as the potential for short-term selling corrections.
Key Levels to Watch:
0.61929 – Distant Support: Lower boundary of the previous range.
Frequent price oscillations at this level could revive the previous downtrend seen since September 2024.
0.62923 – Key Support: Aligns with the Ichimoku Cloud barrier and the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
A tentative level where short-term bearish corrections could occur.
0.64323 – Major Resistance: Corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
If the bullish bias pushes price toward this level, it could signal the beginning of a stronger uptrend in the short term.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
#AUDUSD 4HAUDUSD (4H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is forming an expanding pattern, indicating increased volatility and uncertainty in market direction. Additionally, a sell engulfing candlestick has appeared, suggesting strong bearish momentum and potential downside movement.
Forecast:
A sell opportunity is anticipated as the expanding pattern, combined with the sell engulfing area, signals increased selling pressure.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: A sell position can be considered near the recent resistance area where the sell engulfing pattern has formed.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed above the recent swing high to manage risk.
- Take Profit: Target lower support levels for potential downside movement.
Market Sentiment:
The formation of an expanding pattern with a sell engulfing candlestick suggests that bearish pressure is increasing. Monitoring price action and confirmation signals before entry will help align with the prevailing trend.
RBA Poised to Reduce Cash Rate by 25 Basis PointsThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet this Tuesday and is widely anticipated to deliver its first rate cut in four years amid easing inflationary pressures. I am ‘reasonably’ convinced that the central bank will reduce the Cash Rate this week, a belief based on inflation and growth data that delivered prints south of the RBA’s recent projections (released on 5 November 2024).
Following nine consecutive meetings on hold, markets are pricing in a 90% probability that the RBA will reduce the Cash Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10% from 4.35% (per the ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate futures). Markets are also pricing for an additional 50 bps of cuts by the year-end, lowering the Cash Rate to 3.6%.
I am not holding my breath for anything illuminating to come out of the RBA’s accompanying rate statement and press conference. I believe we will see the Board underscore a cautious tone, echoing the ‘data dependent’ approach. The central bank will likely shine the spotlight on the disinflation progress but stop short of providing anything concrete to signal further cuts.
The RBA will also release their detailed quarterly updated forecasts on growth (GDP ), unemployment, inflation, and the Cash Rate. Traders will look at these metrics closely for any revisions. I expect slightly lower revisions to GDP and inflation, but I do not see much change in forecasts for the Cash Rate.
Inflation and GDP: Main Drivers Behind a Rate Cut
In Q2 24, headline Australian inflation came in lower than expected, decelerating to 2.4% (from 2.8% in Q3 24) and marking the lowest quarterly reading since early 2021. This not only places headline inflation within the lower boundary of the RBA’s inflation target band of 2-3%, but the trimmed mean inflation rate – the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation – also exhibited signs of softness, cooling to within touching distance of the RBA’s upper target band (3.0%) at 3.2% in Q4 24 (year-on-year ) from 3.5% in Q3 24.
GDP cooled to 0.8% in Q3 24 (YY), down from 1.0% in Q2 24 and marked the slowest pace of economic growth since late 2020. Quarterly (Q3 24), GDP grew by 0.3%, following a slight increase of 0.2% in the previous quarter (Q2 24).
However, while inflation is trending in the right direction and growth remains subdued – providing some legroom for the RBA to cut the Cash Rate this week – the central bank’s easing cycle will likely be slow and steady this year. Coupled with underlying inflation trending just north of the RBA’s inflation target, the central bank still faces a reasonably solid jobs market. Employment increased by 56,300, comfortably surpassing the market’s median estimate of 15,000 and was above November’s revised reading of 28,200, and wage growth remains steady.
AUD/USD Shaking Hands with Resistance
The AUD/USD currency pair (Australian dollar versus the US dollar) finished last week locking horns with daily resistance between US$0.6417 and US$0.6364 (this area comprises several ratios , a horizontal resistance level, and an ascending resistance extended from US$0.6170).
What is also interesting is the approach to the above-noted resistance could prompt sellers to enter the fray this week. Following a lower low of US$0.6088 in early February, this likely encouraged breakout selling. With these orders now flushed out of the market (bear trap) and the recent higher high (US$0.6368) potentially exciting buyers, this, coupled with price testing resistance last week, could be a bull trap in the making to push things lower.
AUDUSD. Medium-term analysisHey traders and investors!
It might be time to look for buying opportunities in the Australian dollar
Weekly Timeframe Analysis
The Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD) has been in a sideways range since January 2023 (point 4 was formed).
Range Boundaries: Upper Boundary: 0.71578. Lower Boundary: 0.61702
Range Vector Analysis
The last realized range vector 6-7 was a seller's vector, which broke through the lower boundary of the range (0.61702). The weekly volumes of this vector are concentrated at the end of October - early November. Above the 0.65124 level, three weekly bars with increased volume are concentrated.
A buyer's vector 7-8 is now forming, with a potential target of 0.69426. In the emerging buyer's vector, there are three bars with increased volume, which may indicate buyer interest at these price levels.
The first resistance on the buyer's path on the weekly TF is the level of 0.65124, as above it, volumes are concentrated in the seller's vector, and this price level is slightly below the 50% mark of the last seller's vector.
Daily Timeframe Analysis
On the daily timeframe, the price has broken through the upper boundary of the range 0.63308, which formed in January.
Range Boundaries: Upper Boundary: 0.63308. Lower Boundary: 0.60878
Range Vector Analysis
The last realized vector 9-10 was a buyer's vector. The volumes are concentrated in the upper part of the vector. Note the daily bars on February 7 and 12, when the seller tried to start the implementation of their vector 10-11 with increased volume. The buyer absorbed these attempts and, on decreasing volume, broke through the upper boundary of the range 0.63308.
Conclusions
Buying (buying patterns) should be considered as long as the price remains above the upper boundary of the range on the daily TF - 0.63308 (priority option). This idea aligns with the implementation of the buyer's vector on the weekly TF.
Selling (selling patterns) is risky, as the buyer's vector is active on the weekly TF, and the price has exited the range upwards on the daily TF. Even if the seller returns the price to the range on the daily TF, volumes under the lower boundary of the range may trigger a buyer's reaction.
I wish you profitable trades!
AUD-USD Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-USD is making a
Bullish move up and the
Pair made a bullish breakout
Of the key horizontal level
Of 0.6310 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are bullish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
AUDUSD Is Close To The Daily ResistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.64000 zone, AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.64000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Watch NZDUSD and AUDUSD because of RBNZ & RBA next weekThe RBA and the RBNZ are expected to deliver rate decisions next week, so there might be an slight opportunity for the bulls to capture a move higher, before those Banks deliver. Also, the current weakness in DXY could give a small helping hand for the bulls. That said, the positivity might be short-lived, as both Banks are expected to announce cuts, with the RBNZ potentially going for the bigger 50 bps cut.
Let's see what happens.
MARKETSCOM:AUDUSD
MARKETSCOM:NZDUSD
FX_IDC:AUDUSD
FX_IDC:NZDUSD
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AUDUSDAUDUSD price is near the resistance zone 0.63238-0.63289. If the price cannot break through the 9.63289 level, it is expected that the price will drop in the short term. Consider selling the red zone.
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Buy the Dips? AUD/USD Eyes 0.65 After BreakoutAs mentioned, I remain bullish on AUD/USD and expect a rise to 0.65.
Over the past 10 days, the pair has remained virtually unchanged, fluctuating within a tight 50-pip range between 0.6250 and 0.63. However, yesterday, AUD/USD showed some strength and broke above 0.63.
I believe this breakout is genuine, and we could see further acceleration to the upside. My target remains 0.65, and I will stay bullish as long as the 0.62 zone holds.
Buying dips should continue to be the preferred strategy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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AUDUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.62700 zone, AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.62700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Scenario on AUDUSD 13.2.2025I would see AUDUSD like this, if it were to be a short, then the first place I would be willing to enter is the sfp above the high around poc 0.63378 long positions are the first acceptable until the sfp around the support at the level of 0.616-0.613 and then only after the building sfp
AUDUSD sideways consolidation continuesThe AUDUSD currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. However, the recent price action since 24th December 2024, appears to be protracted sideways consolidation.
The key trading level is at 0.6311, which is the current swing high. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 0.6311 level could target the downside support at 0.6220 followed by 0.6183 and 0.6163 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 0.6311 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 0.6330 resistance level followed by 0.6350.
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Australian dollar drifting after mixed confidence dataThe Australian dollar is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6279, up 0.05% on the day.
Australian confidence indicators were mixed on Tuesday. The Westpac consumer sentiment index climbed 0.1% in February to 92.2 points, which means a majority of the surveyed consumers were pessimistic about econmic conditions. The reading bounced back from a 0.7% decline in January but was shy of the forecast of 0.4%. Consumer confidence remains weak as consumers have been squeezed by high inflation and elevated interest rates. The survey noted that consumers have become more confident that the central bank will lower rates.
The National Australia Bank's (NAB) business confidence index, which rose 6 points in January to +4. However, business conditions index dropped to +3 from +6 a month earlier, as profitability and employment weakened. The NAB survey noted that retail spending has improved and this trend would need to continue if business conditions were to improve.
The mixed confidence numbers come just one week before a crucial Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. A rate cut is virtually certain at the meeting, which would mark the RBA's first rate cut since Nov. 2020. The RBA is yet to join the easing cycle which other major central banks have implemented as inflation has fallen.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to continue to maintain interest rates at the March meeting. The US economy remains robust and the labor market has slowed gradually, which means there isn't much pressure on Fed policy makers to lower rates in the coming months. Barring unexpected economic news, the Fed is expected to cut rates no more than one or two times in 2025.
AUD/USD tested support at 0.6267 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6245
There is resistance at 0.6299 and 0.6321
AUD/USD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
AUD/USD pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is evidently rising on the 1D timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 0.611 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
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AUDUSD H4 | Bearish DropBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 0.6279, which is an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 0.6177, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 0.6340, which is a pullback resistance level.
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