AudUsd broke the falling trend line resistanceIn my last week's AudUsd post, I wrote that the pair has bullish perspectives as long as 0.65 support remains intact.
Indeed, this was the case and, after a few days of consolidation above this important support level, aUDuSD reversed to the upside but, more importantly, broke above the falling trend line resistance.
My outlook remains bullish for this pair and I expect my target of 0.69 to be reached.
Negation comes with a fall back under the trendline
Audusdanalysis
AUDUSD ~ Risk Off Sentiment: Stuck In Limbo into EOY (2H)FX_IDC:AUDUSD chart mapping/analysis.
Aussie Dollarydoos struggling to regain bullish momentum after early December peak.
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Preliminary trading range = ~66.20 to ~65.25.
Break above ~66.20 = regain bullish momentum.
Bullish target(s) = re-test descending trend-line (white dotted) / upper range of ascending parallel channel (green).
Break below ~65.25 = extend bearish capitulation.
Bearish target(s) = 61.8% Fib / lower range of ascending parallel channel (green) confluence zone.
200SMA also acting as dynamic resistance, reinforcing bearish rollover.
Major macro economic news this week = higher probability of implied volatile swings in either direction.
AUDUSD seems perfect to deliver downside objectivelooking forward to sell AUDUSD around 0.6610 level or above as we have seen a massive shift for downside in all major currencies as dollar seems to rally higher and likely to target 104.25 level which makes this pair weaker and pois to move down towards our target of 0.6520 level
Audusd looking for a short-term surprise for the upside 0.6620Audusd looks quite good at this consolidation phase to go long and target 0.6620 level as target with entry around 0.6551 level or above with a stoploss at 0.6525 level.
this expansion seems limited and after that i am expecting price to fall further down and resume the downtrend .
i have two setups for this AUDUSD one as per the higher time frame while this trade is for shorter term perspective and my both analysis do not have a same bias. both are valid
in this one i am long just for a short term and my previous trade which is short that is also valid
AUDUSD I Potential long from support pending USD PPIWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** AUDUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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AUDUSD - W1\D1AUDUSD
W1 - The price reached level 161 after breaking through the trend line. which could lead to the start of a correction or a continuation of the downward movement to new lows.
D1 - The price can form a 3-wave structure and, upon breaking through the minimum of the 1st wave, continue moving to the levels of 0.62592.
What can you expect?
You can consider entering from the level of ~0.65260 with further movement to the target 0.62592. Cancellation of the idea so as not to take increased risk on the idea levels beyond the end of the 2nd wave - 0.66261 or 1st wave - 0.66953. Cancellation of the structure, can also be the formation of an ABC formation.
Short
Target 0.6932 - 0.64250 - 0.63629 - 0.62592
DeGRAM | AUDUSD pullback to support, trend continuationAUDUSD is creating the AB=CD pattern.
The market broke out of the resistance that became a support.
Price is approaching the support level and 50% fibo levels.
We expect a classic breakout pullback continuation pattern.
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AUDUSD: UBS: The Fed will still be cautious and declare the needUBS comments ahead of the December 12th and 13th FOMC meeting:
The Summary Economic Outlook (SEP), released at the same time as the December policy statement, says there will likely be at least one, and more likely two, rate cuts in 2024. .
While the market is happy with the FOMC's rate cuts, UBS expects the committee to be a little more cautious.
The cumulative rate cuts deemed appropriate by a majority of FOMC officials over the SEP's forecast period are expected to be approximately 250 basis points.
It's still too early to declare victory over inflation
Even if the FOMC cuts rates, the Fed is likely to continue warning that it is prepared to raise rates again if there is any doubt that inflation is falling.
AUD/USD Consolidates Around 0.6600 Ahead of US NFP DataAUD/USD is trading within a narrow range around the 0.6600 level in the Asian trading session on Friday. Concerns about China's economic outlook and the temporary pause in the US Dollar's decline have restrained this currency pair ahead of the highly significant US NFP data. In Australia, October trade data failed to support the Australian Dollar (AUD). The trade surplus decreased to 7.129 million in October from the previous reading of 6.184 million, falling below the market estimate of 7.500 million. Furthermore, China's November import data has raised concerns about an economic slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Optimistic data and new concerns about China's economy could convince the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates in 2024, potentially pushing the AUD lower.
Next, market participants will closely monitor the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for release later on Friday. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published. These events could cause market volatility and provide clearer direction for the AUD/USD pair.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis And Trade IdeaThe AUDUSD pair has been showcasing a robust bullish trend recently. Our focal point narrows down to the 1D and 4H time frames, strategically aiming to pinpoint the most advantageous entry positions amidst a substantial price swing that is expected to undergo a retracement phase.
Our primary focus revolves around identifying retracement levels within the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci zone, an area we favor for optimal entry opportunities. This video delves into the intricacies of price action, market structure, and overarching trends, unveiling pivotal insights into technical analysis.
Throughout this analysis, we delve into crucial elements: market structure dynamics, nuances of price action, trends' patterns, and fundamental technical analysis components. It is crucial to underline that this content serves purely educational purposes. Therefore, it is imperative to refrain from interpreting it as financial advice.
Possible opportunity in Aussie vs USD this week?US dollar
Attention will be paid to key economic indicators that roll out over the course of the week such as the Non-farm Payrolls jobs report, JOLTs job openings, and the ISM Services PMI survey.
Moody's analysis suggests a cooling down of various labor market measures. The uptick in November jobs growth is attributed to the impact of the United Auto Workers strikes in October rather than a substantial resurgence in the labor market.
Aussie Dollar
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to maintain its interest rate in its upcoming meeting on Wednesday, with a 97% probability for the rate to stay at 4.35%. There is only a 3% chance of a 25bps hike to 4.60%. This expectation follows the RBA's decision to raise the Cash Rate by 25bps in the last November meeting.
A surprise decision by the RBA (or even a change in outlook) could see the Aussie dollar spike like the NZ dollar did last week. Look for weak preliminary job numbers coming from the US for extra confirmation of a bullish Aussie outlook.
AUDUSD BUYING ZONE !!!HELLO TRADERS !!!
As we can see this pair is holding weekly support and moving to north and we are looking for buying opportunity for this pair now it have to retrace with DXY move to the downside till the buying zone so we are looking for these design levels so we will trade on this pair with a low risk and higher rewards its just a trade idea share ur thoughts on this pair with us & stay tuned for new entries
AUDUSD - W1 strong support approaching Analyzing the weekly chart of AUDUSD, our outlook anticipates a price decline toward the lower boundary of the channel, which also coincides with the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level. We expect the Australian dollar (AUD) to establish strong support at the 0.62750 level.
Following this expected support, our projection foresees a robust upward movement toward the 0.66700 level. Our initial stop-loss will be set at 0.61700, positioned just below the previous low recorded in October 2022. This stop-loss level is approximately 1.5% below our anticipated entry point. Importantly, this trade maintains a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 1:4.
Please remember that trading carries inherent risks, and market conditions can change swiftly. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always exercise prudent risk management and consider various factors when making trading decisions.
AUD/USD: Reversal Sell Opportunity Confirmed!!!On November 29 and 30, AUD/USD touched a crucial pivot point at the price of 0.66411, indicating a potential change in direction, especially as it aligns with a level of miring Support and Resistance, suggesting a Major downtrend. The bearish reversal signal on the daily candle following the pivot point touch adds confidence to the potential downturn. The recent dovish stance conveyed by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) further adds pressure on AUD/USD.
Technical Analysis:
Pivot Point and Support/Resistance: The price hitting the pivot point at 0.66411 suggests a potential reversal, particularly at the miring Support and Resistance level.
Bearish Reversal Signal: The formation of a bearish reversal pattern after touching the pivot point indicates weakness in the bullish momentum.
Major Downtrend: The trendline illustrates that AUD/USD is currently experiencing a Major downtrend.
Fundamental Analysis:
Dovish RBA Stance: The dovish statement from the RBA can enhance the downward pressure on AUD/USD.
Trading Scenario:
Considering the above factors, traders may contemplate the following scenario:
Wait for Correction: Exercise patience until the price undergoes a correction from the 0.66411 level.
Sell Limit with Confirmation: Initiate a sell position after a correction, with confirmation of further downside. Confirmation could involve the formation of a bearish pattern.
Target Take Profit: Set a take profit target around 0.64660, an area indicating the potential for further decline.
Stop Loss: Safeguard the position by placing a stop loss above the nearest resistance level or above the high of the confirmation candle.
It's crucial to continuously monitor market conditions, stay informed about the latest news, and practice prudent risk management. Trading always involves risks, and the final decision remains the responsibility of the trader.
AUDUSD: Currency market update: USD decreased slightly, AUD AUDUSD rose 0.28% to 0.6635 following China PMI data. Manufacturing activities had their second consecutive month of decline while non-manufacturing activities bottomed out for the year. With such a situation, the market expects China to announce more economic stimulus measures