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Audusdanalysis

Divergent Inflation Paths: AUDUSD Set for Bearish MovementAnalysis for AUDUSD: Bearish Outlook 1. U.S. Inflation Trends: - Recent Data: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an increase of 3.4% year-over-year in December, the highest in three months. This rise was more than expected, indicating a continued inflationary pressure. - Core Inflation: Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, remains firm. Notable increases were seen in used cars, apparel, housing, and car insurance costs. - Federal Reserve's Challenge: The Fed faces a difficult path in achieving its 2% inflation target. The recent data suggests that the decline in goods and energy prices is slowing, while inflation in housing and services remains high. 2. Impact on AUDUSD: - Rising U.S. Inflation: Higher inflation typically leads to expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Fed. This could result in a stronger USD as interest rates may rise to combat inflation. - Market Response: The release of the inflation data led to a fall in the S&P 500 and fluctuations in Treasuries, reflecting market uncertainty. 3. Comparison with Australian Economy: - Australian Inflation: The Australian economy is reportedly experiencing a decrease in inflation, moving towards stabilization. This contrasts with the U.S. situation, where inflation remains a concern. - Economic Stability: Greater stability in the Australian economy, compared to the ongoing inflationary challenges in the U.S., might typically favor the AUD. However, the current global economic environment appears to favor the USD. 4. Global and Political Factors: - Global Risks: Rising shipping costs and potential escalations in the Middle East could impact global inflation trends, potentially affecting currency markets. - U.S. Political Climate: Inflation continues to be a significant issue in U.S. politics, affecting public opinion and potentially influencing economic policy. 5. Technical Analysis: - Technical Indicators: Traders should look for technical confirmation of a bearish trend, such as resistance levels, moving averages, and RSI indicators. - Price Action: Watch for bearish patterns or breaks below key support levels in AUDUSD. Conclusion: Given the higher inflation rates in the U.S. and the expectation of continued Fed intervention to control inflation, there is a potential for a stronger USD against the AUD. However, traders should continuously monitor evolving economic data and geopolitical events that could influence market sentiment and currency values. Technical analysis should be used to validate any trading decisions in the context of current market conditions.
Short
by Wiiso
3
AUD rally stalls ahead of key US PCE inflation reportThe Australian dollar’s rally has met its match around a key resistance area, which includes the January trendline and Q3 open price. A 2-bar reversal formed on Wednesday, following RSI reaching overbought the day prior. And as the US dollar has weakened on bets on Fed cuts ahead of a key PCE inflation report, I suspect there may be some disappointment and the potential for a USD dollar bounce. This is why we’re looking for some mean reversion and towards the 0.6570 at a minimum (near its 200-day EMA) or support around 65c. Bears could seek to fade into low volatility retracements within Wednesday’s range, while prices remain beneath Wednesday’s high.
Short
by CityIndex
AudUsd- An interesting zone to watchAs you know, I've been bullish AudUsd and called for a rise to 0.69 zone resistance. The target was reached at the end of the year and the pair started to correct immediately after. Although AudUsd started the year badly, the trend started in November remains strongly bullish and this correction could represent the opportunity for bulls to enter at a better price. Looking at the posted chart we can see that the recent correction brought the price down to a very interesting confluence of supports, given by the retesting of the falling broken trend line, a drop to the ascending trend line, and the horizontal support. As long as Friday's low is intact, I'm looking to buy dips.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
AUDUSD: The USD soared amid higher US bond yields, pending key dThe US dollar posted strong gains on the first trading day of the year, supported by rising US yields. Market participants are currently awaiting the release of upcoming US labor market data and European inflation data to determine the direction of central bank policy. The dollar index, a measure that compares the U.S. currency with six other major currencies, rose 0.7%, its biggest single-day gain since October. This follows his 2% decline in 2023, ending his second consecutive year of increases. Last year's decline was due to market expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates significantly given the strong economy. The dollar's rise was supported by a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rising 7.1 basis points to 3.931%, its biggest one-day gain in more than three weeks. The dollar faced downward pressure last month after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled a potential rate cut in 2024, but Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.'s head of global currency strategy said: "The market is starting to realize that," Win Hsin said. "The US economy remains strong," he said, suggesting a "soft landing" could result in two or three precautionary cuts by 2024. However, the market is currently pricing in six rate cuts this year. As a result, the dollar could remain "under pressure and vulnerable" until those expectations materialize, Singh said.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
DeGRAM | AUDUSD AB=CD pattern completionAUDUSD is trading in the ascending channel. It is testing the major daily resistance level. The market created the AB=CD pattern where the D point is complete right at the resistance and channel border. We expect a price retracement from the structre resistance since the market is overbought and it's bounced off the daily resistance. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments, and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
2
AUDUSD: 0.7150 is our next possible target in 2024?Happy New Year 2024. AUDUSD, has been bullish in daily timeframe, suggesting a clear move upwards 0.7150 region which is where we will exit our trade. Looking at the current price momentum it is clearly notable that price has already retraced and it is very likely it will rebound strongly in days to come. Entry can be available when the market opens where with 50-80 pips stop loss a long entry worth it. With the take profit of 600 pips, a great risk to reward.
Long
by Setupsfx_
9
USD Weakness and Potential Bullish Momentum on AUDUSDThe foreign exchange market, influenced by economic policies and global events, is undergoing a significant transformation in the AUDUSD currency pair. This analysis delves into the repercussions of the Federal Reserve's (The Fed) dovish policy decisions on the USD and explores how this has contributed to the strengthening of the Australian Dollar. Federal Reserve's Dovish Stance: In response to economic challenges, the Federal Reserve has embraced a dovish approach, refraining from raising benchmark interest rates to foster economic recovery. Chairman Powell's dovish signals have resonated in the currency markets, resulting in a depreciation of the USD. Market Analysis: Since the December 14 FOMC meetings, the AUDUSD has seen a noteworthy surge from 0.65690 to its recent peak at 0.68710. This upward trend, encapsulated within an ascending channel, signals bullish momentum. However, the ongoing correction phase suggests a temporary pullback before the upward trend resumes. Strategic Trading Approach: Entry Point: Strategically position the entry point around support levels, especially when accompanied by a confirmed bullish pattern. This approach capitalizes on the corrective phase, providing an advantageous entry position. Stop Loss: Manage risk with a stop-loss order below the ascending channel or the support level of 0.68061. This safeguards against unexpected market movements, offering a defined exit point if the trade deviates from expectations. Consider an alternative stop-loss placement around 0.67903 in case of a substantial shift. Take Profit: Set the take-profit level at 0.68815, representing the highest point in the past six months. This serves as a reasonable target for capitalizing on the bullish momentum. Conclusion: The Federal Reserve's cautious approach and the resulting USD depreciation have paved the way for potential bullish momentum on AUDUSD. Despite a brief correction, entering the market around support levels using bullish patterns offers an optimal strategy. Prudent risk management, with well-placed stop-loss orders, and targeting 0.68815 for profit-taking provide a concise plan for navigating the current USD weakness and the anticipated AUDUSD upswing. Traders can effectively capitalize on this market scenario with a strategic and well-informed approach.
Long
by fardycurry
1
AUDUSD Long Position Trade Aud Economy is looking positive When assessing all of the data for Australia, the economy is in a much more stable place which would have been one of the goals from the people who lead and set the countries monetary and fiscal policies. Inflation has hit its peak 4 quarters ago and has been stepping down slowly before reaching the RBA’s target of 2.5 by 2025, which with all things taken into account is a possibility. With interest rates at a high, there are rumblings of decreasing the current rate of 4.35% slowly, however, we will know much more during the first 2 data set releases of 2024 but as for now the higher interest rates are still attracting business into the internal and external business into the economy which is a plus for the Australian economy. Geopolitical tensions across the world in terms of wars have added value to the exports of Australia, however, the continuous tensions with their biggest trade partners China is definitely something that could derail the good done in supporting the Australian Economy a “The population have been spending and spending well as retail sales were up during the summer and this is something we could see repeated during the festive season as the families and business will be busy which will potentially produce a good reading in terms of retail sales in Australia. This is supported by the higher wage growth, which would mean people will have more disposable income and to spend on goods and services and even save. With Private house approvals also doing well in the economy this sounds out the economy as much more stable as private house approvals give us an early indication of whether there is a recession in progress or not. Macro indicators point towards an ease of pressure on the Australian economy almost as if Australia are at the halfway point of their recovery from the Covid 19 pandemic as they set their sights on bringing down inflation and interest rates. So far, the confidence that Australia would be one of the strongest nations coming out of the recession has been correct analysis with reducing the unemployment rate rather quickly playing a factor in that, but the work is not done. So, whilst there is optimism heading into Q2, there are also some concerns to be aware coming into the Q2. Australian exports represent over 20% of gross domestic product (GDP). Approximately 65% of Australia’s two-way trade occurs with countries in Asia” (Zhou, I. and Satherley, T. 2023), so the disruption with their business with China as the Chinese have placed higher tariffs on their goods as well as bans on Australian products make Australia less attractive which isn’t going to be helpful, especially when you also take into consideration the implication of decarbonisation in a few years. So, whilst Australia thrives in trading today, make no mistake it is a very necessary win for them as they will need to plan ahead going forward.
Long
by OfficialMMMVP
2