Audusdbullish
AUDUSD analysis: MACD bullish crossoverThe latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes, which opened the door to more interest rate hikes, may provide only marginal support to the Australian dollar when compared to the US dollar ( AUD/USD ).
Stronger global economic growth, a Chinese industrial recovery, more risk appetite among investors, and widespread gains in commodity prices are required for the Australian dollar to thrive. These factors would strongly reverse the Aussie’s trajectory, pushing the AUD/USD comfortably back above 0.70.
Therefore, for the time being, the RBA’s pledge serves to provide a floor, thus containing the potential downside risk of the AUD/USD pair, since the Fed is likewise convinced of rising interest rates forcefully.
AUD/USD technical analysis
Technically speaking, we are starting to notice positive indications from a short-term viewpoint. The momentum is rising on the daily chart, with the 14-day RSI climbing from 37 to 48. Breaking 50 would mean bulls might overtake bears in the near-term.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator produced a bullish crossover signal yesterday, as the MACD line (blue line) passed from below to above the signal line (orange). Four of the six MACD crossovers that had occurred in 2022, then provided the right signal.
The 0.6875 level, which corresponds to the highs reached on July 8th, is the barrier that has to be broken in the very short term. Breaking this level might boost bulls’ convictions to target the 50-day moving average at 0.697.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodities analyst at Capital.com
AUDUSD LONGOANDA:AUDUSD
AUDUSD on an uptrend with HHs and LLs on the 1H. Price broke resistance and made a pullback testing what is now support. Price retraced at 38.2% fib level. A consolidation occurred creating a descending triangle with LH's and a strong support level with long wicks indication a strong rejection of buyers, should price close higher than the last lower high of the descending triangle it will break structure and a buy setup will be confirmed and take profit 1 would be at 0.72119, and take profit 2 will be at 0.72571 should price continue to break the resistance level of take profit 1.
AUDUSD top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
AudUsd is in a very important buy zoneAfter breaking under the huge flag's support that I've spoken about 2 weeks ago, AudUsd has continued its descent breaking under 2 more important support.
However, at this moment, the pair is in a strong buy zone and, considering an almost straight fall of 500 pips, a correction is needed.
I will look for opportunities to buy this pair for a rebound to 0.73 zone
AUD/USD Forex Signal: Extremely Bullish Above 0.7170Bullish View
Buy the AUD/USD and set a take-profit at 0.7230.
Add a stop-loss at 0.7070.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish View
Set a sell-stop at 0.7100 and a take-profit at 0.7000.
Add a stop-loss at 0.7200.
The AUD/USD pair wavered on Thursday morning as the market reflected on the hawkish tone by the Federal Reserve chair and the positive numbers from the US and Australia. The pair is also wavering as investors focus on the upcoming jobs numbers from the United States. The pair is trading at 0.7143, which is slightly higher than this week’s lowest point.
Hawkish Federal Reserve
The biggest catalyst for the AUD/USD and the US dollar has been the relatively hawkish statement by the Federal Reserve chair. On his first day of congressional testimony, Jerome Powell sent shockwaves by his statement on quantitative easing and tapering.
He said that the central bank will continue tapering its asset purchases at a quicker pace than expected. In its interest rate decision in November, the bank signalled that it will end its purchases in June next year. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the bank will now wind down the policy in the first quarter of 2022.
This statement will therefore put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which will start its meeting on Monday and deliver its decision on Tuesday. There is a likelihood that the bank will signal that it will start hiking rates earlier than 2024. In the previous meeting, the bank signalled that it will hike in 2024.
Therefore, with data from Australia being relatively strong, there is a likelihood that the bank will also turn hawkish next week. On Wednesday, data published by the country’s statistics agency showed that the economy contracted by 1.9% in the third quarter. This was a better figure than the median estimate of -2.7%. The economy grew by 3.9% on a year-on-year basis,
In addition, the manufacturing sector did well in November, according to numbers by Markit and Australia Industry Group. And today, numbers showed that the country’s retail sales rebounded in October.
AUD/USD Forecast
The four-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD pair declined to a low of 0.7065 this week. This price was along the first support of the standard pivot points. It then rebounded and is now trading at 0.7130, which is slightly below the standard pivot point.
The pair is still below the 50-day moving average while the MACD has started moving upwards. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the first resistance at 0.7230.
AudUsd- Long trade with 1:5 R:RAudUsd is trading around 0.72 zone, just above very important daily support and a correction is probable from this point on.
Also, the last leg down is a falling wedge and a break above 0.7230 would confirm a reversal, and bulls target can be above 0.73
A drop under 0.7170 would negate this scenario
AudUsd to test 0.75 (short term outlook)Yesterday AudUsd has broken above the descending trendline that capped price since the beginning of the month.
At this moment the pair is trading just under 0.7420 short-term resistance and a break here would expose 0.75 important zone.
Aussie back under 0.7380 would negate this scenario
AudUsd- Reversal underway?In mid-August, AudUsd started to rise and correct the down move, and at the beginning of September, a new leg down took place.
However, this new leg down couldn't make a new low, but a higher low instead which puts under question the medium-term downtrend.
The last breakdown has proven to be a false one and AudUsd quickly recovered losses.
At this point, the chart structure is very constructive and indicates bullish momentum for the coming days.
I will look to buy dips for a break of 0.73 resistance and continuation to very important 0.75 zone