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AUDUSD Bearish Breakout – Macro and Technicals AlignAUDUSD has broken below a rising wedge formation on the 4H chart, signaling a bearish continuation. With the Reserve Bank of Australia pausing rates and weak local data weighing on sentiment, while the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish hold due to sticky labor costs, this trade sets up well both technically and fundamentally. I'm watching for downside continuation toward 0.6379 and potentially 0.6350. The bearish bias is invalidated on a move above 0.6475. 🔍 Technical Analysis Structure: Price broke down from a rising wedge and continues forming bear flags — each followed by further selling pressure. Current Price Action: Rejected sharply at ~0.6475 (last swing high) Confirmed breakout with downside momentum Key Support Levels: 0.6379 – minor structural support 0.6350 – major support zone from April Resistance / Invalidation: Above 0.6475 – would break the bearish structure and negate the setup Bias: Bearish — clean structure, breakout momentum, and sustained lower highs 🌏 Fundamental Context 🇦🇺 Bearish AUD Drivers: Weak domestic data: Building Approvals: -8.8% vs -1.7% forecast RBA on hold: No rate hike in sight; cautious due to housing and China concerns China slow-down: PBOC cut rates and reduced reserve requirements — signals broader economic softness 🇺🇸 Bullish USD Drivers: Fed holding firm: Benchmark rate held at 4.25–4.50% Labor costs surged +5.3% q/q Productivity dropped -0.4%, reinforcing inflation concerns Market repricing rate cuts: Cuts now expected later in 2025 or even 2026 Political pressure from Trump: Despite attacks on Jerome Powell, Fed appears unmoved Trump teasing a “major trade deal” — potentially USD-positive if credible 🎯 Trade Setup Entry Area: Watching 0.6420–0.6435 as a pullback zone for potential shorts Target Levels: First target: 0.6379 Second target: 0.6350 Stop Loss: Placed above 0.6475 (last swing high) to protect against false breakouts Trade Thesis: Technical structure supports downside continuation Macro fundamentals favor USD strength and AUD weakness Clean reward-to-risk if structure holds 🧭 Conclusion AUDUSD setup is supported by a strong confluence of technical breakdown and macro divergence. With the Fed staying firm and the RBA cautious amid weak data, the fundamentals validate the bearish trend. As long as price stays below 0.6475, the outlook remains bearish, with 0.6379 and 0.6350 as the next logical levels. Caution around U.S. data releases or trade deal news is advised, but the path of least resistance remains downward.
Short
by ultreosforex
1
AUDUSD LONG FORECAST Q2 W19 D7 Y25AUDUSD LONG FORECAST Q2 W19 D7 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly 50 EMA ✅Intraday 15' order block ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled ✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure to be confirmed 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
AUDUSD LONG FORECAST Q2 W19 D5 Y25 AUDUSD LONG FORECAST Q2 W19 D5 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly 50 EMA ✅Intraday 15' order block ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled ✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure to be confirmed 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
The trend next weekJudging from the price trend presented in the chart, the current market is clearly in a bearish state 📉. Previously, after the price reached the key resistance level of 0.64500, it failed to break through effectively and continue the upward trend. Instead, it entered a consolidation pattern 📊. This indicates that the bullish forces encountered strong resistance near this price level and found it difficult to push the price higher 👎. It is expected that in the coming period, without significant positive news stimuli, the price is highly likely to continue its downward trend 📉. Investors should closely monitor whether the support level of 0.63340 holds 👀. If this support level is broken, they may consider selling short on rallies ⏬. ⚡⚡⚡ AUDUSD ⚡⚡⚡ 🚀 Sell@0.6500 - 0.6450 🚀 TP 0.6350 - 0.6300 Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟
Short
by Sovereign-
AUD/USD Opening Trends and Trading Strategies Next WeekThe AUD/USD has been in a range - bound fluctuation recently. 📈 In the short term, if the price can stay above the support level of 0.63340 and market risk - appetite sentiment rises, the AUD/USD is expected to challenge the target level of 0.64500. 🎯 However, if it breaks below the support level, it may trigger further downward adjustments. 📉 ⚡⚡⚡ AUDUSD ⚡⚡⚡ 🚀 Buy@0.6350 - 0.6380 🚀 TP 0.6400 - 0.6450 Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟
Long
by Sovereign-
1
AUDUSD: Neutral View First Buy and Then Sell! Hey everyone! Our first buy swing entry is going swimmingly! We’ve got over 500 pips running positively, and we reckon price can keep going up and then when it hits our selling zone, you can swing sell too. This is a fantastic opportunity where we can wait for price to do its thing and then when it reaches the sell zone, we can execute our order. But if you’re feeling adventurous and want to take a bit of a risk, you can take a buy entry at the given point and keep it up until it reaches our sell area. With just one shot, we can make two entries! Good luck and trade safely! Thanks a bunch for your unwavering support! 😊 If you’d like to lend a hand, here are a few ways you can contribute: - Like our ideas - Comment on our ideas - Share our ideas Cheers, Team Setupsfx_ ❤️🚀
by Setupsfx_
2
AUDUSD keeps surging upwardFrom a technical analysis perspective, the moving average system presents a typical bullish arrangement pattern. The 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average are continuously rising and diverging 🚀, providing a solid support foundation for the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the US dollar. At the moment, the MACD indicator is above the zero axis, and its histogram bars are also continuously expanding 📈, which clearly indicates that the bullish momentum is in a strong state 💪. At the same time, although the KDJ indicator is in the overbought area, there has been no significant sign of a turn, which means that the current upward trend is highly likely to continue 😎. In terms of fundamentals, Australia's recent economic data has been rather remarkable 🌟. For example, Australia's employment data has shown a good growth trend, and the unemployment rate has decreased, indicating that the vitality of Australia's labor market is increasing 💪, which in turn provides strong positive support for the Australian dollar 😃. In addition, Australia's commodity export data is also quite excellent. As a resource-exporting country, the stable increase in commodity prices and the growth in export volume have greatly promoted Australia's economic development 🚀 and further enhanced the attractiveness of the Australian dollar 😍. In contrast, there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the economic policies of the United States. Especially, the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan has been slow, which has somewhat weakened the market's confidence in the US dollar 😕. Based on considerations of risk, investors have started to gradually shift their funds to other currencies, including the Australian dollar, injecting strong impetus into the rise of AUDUSD 💥. 💰💰💰 GBPUSD💰💰💰 🎯 Buy@1.3200 - 1.3230 🎯 TP 1.3300 - 1.3350 Traders, if you're fond of this perspective or have your own insights regarding it, feel free to share in the comments. I'm really looking forward to reading your thoughts! 🤗 👇The accuracy rate of our daily signals has remained above 98% within a month! 📈 We sincerely welcome you to join our channel and share in the success with us! 👉
Long
by PearlMichael
AUD/USD Bullish Breakout Setup – RBR Zone StrategyAUD/USD 1H Chart Analysis 1. Trend Shift Identified ⚡ CHoCH (Change of Character) detected! Price broke above a previous high → Potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. 🔸 Bearish → Bullish Shift! 2. Key Zone: RBR Zone 🔵 RBR (Rally-Base-Rally) Zone! This is a strong demand zone where buyers stepped in. Price is expected to return here before continuing upward. ⬇️ Price retracement ⬆️ Reentry opportunity! 3. Trade Setup 📍 Entry: In the blue RBR zone 🛑 Stop Loss: Below zone at 0.61002 🎯 Target: At 0.63307 Trade Idea: Risk: 🔻 Small (below RBR zone) Reward: 🔺 Big (up to previous structure) R:R Ratio = 3:1 ✔️ 4. EMA (Exponential Moving Average) 📈 9 EMA is trending upward Price is above the EMA → Bullish momentum confirmed Summary Buy setup forming after trend reversal Watch for price reaction in the RBR zone If support holds → 🚀 to the target!
Long
by Jameshead007
2
#AUDUSD: Three Swing Target Accumulating Total of 1400+ Pips! Analysing the AUDUSD currency pair on a broader timeframe of three days reveals a bearish trend. This suggests a potential final decline in prices before a significant bullish surge in the market. Two golden lines are drawn around the entry area, indicating potential entry points at the first, second, or intersection of these lines. Alternatively, the first and second lines can serve as entry and stop loss points, tailored to your trading strategy. Additionally, important economic indicators are set to impact the market. For instance, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for this coming Friday will significantly influence the direction of the DXY monthly price. If you find our analysis valuable, please consider liking and commenting on our ideas. Your feedback will be instrumental in our efforts to provide more detailed and insightful analysis. Much Love and Gratitude for your support in advance, happy to help.❤️🚀 Team Setupsfx_
Long
by Setupsfx_
7
AUD/USD at a Crossroads: The Battle of Breakouts and SupportsTrade frictions remain a headwind in the market. US trade measures have triggered concerns, and the Australian economy, which is dependent on exports to China, may be impacted. Meanwhile, inflation triggered by tariffs conflicts with concerns about a slowdown in the US economy. The Federal Reserve has maintained the interest rate unchanged and adjusted its economic forecasts. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates in February, and future actions will depend on inflation data. Employment positions decreased in February while the unemployment rate remained stable. The upcoming release of the monthly CPI indicator for February is of great concern. The net short - positions of the Australian dollar have increased, and market sentiment is bearish. Technically, if the AUD/USD breaks through key levels, there is upward potential. If the bears dominate, there are multiple support levels. Momentum indicators show mixed performance. AUDUSD sell@0.63500-0.63000 tp:0.62500-0.62000 I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate for a whole month in a row. If you also need them, please click on the link below the article to obtain them.
Short
by JohnGonzalez7
1
AUDUSD - Bullish Continuation Toward 0.63160OANDA:AUDUSD has broken above a key resistance zone, which has now flipped to support, aligning with a potential bullish continuation. The recent retest of this level held successfully, indicating strong buyer interest and reinforcing the bullish outlook. With momentum favoring the upside, the price could move upward toward the 0.63160 level, which represents a logical target within the current market structure. As long as the price remains above the support level, the bullish bias stays intact. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts here!
Long
by DanieIM
3
Ghost's AUD/USD Long Setup (Shorter Term Targets)AUD/USD has now seen a 350+ rally off the lows with no substantial pullback. A lot of the time this kind of price action occurs on AU, it tends to extend a lot further than most traders predict but also not to the overly bullish targets retail traders will spout off like 70+ cents. While I think a revisit to the lows before a long-term bullrun can be seen for AU is likely, I'm aware that price is indicating it's looking for a healthy correction before target the .65 zone, which is the POC for the higher time frames we broke down from weeks ago with no retest. For these reason and the general understanding of price action and market structure I see a lot on AUD/USD, I'm bullish in the short-term if we can get a steeper pullback to the .629 area after taking profits on my shorts for 50+ pips around .635. Best of luck team, Ghost Traders FX now for the year of 2025 has 25 wins in a row, almost 500+ pips gained, 0 losses, improving our overall core strategy results to 135 Wins, 18 Breakevens, 7 losses pulling our WR back to 95%+ Feel good to be trading at my best agian.
Long
by GTFX_Trading