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Audusdsell

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Sell-Off to Accelerate Ahead of RBABearish View Sell the AUD/USD ahead of the RBA decision. Add a take-profit at 0.6950 and a stop-loss at 0.7050. Timeline: 1-2 days. Bullish View Set a buy-stop at 0.7030 and a take-profit at 0.7100. Add a stop-loss at 0.6050. The AUD/USD pair crashed to the lowest level since July 2020 as investors wait for the upcoming interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The pair also dropped sharply after the latest US jobs data. AUD/USD Forecast The four-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD pair has been in a sharp bearish trend in the past few weeks. The sell-off accelerated when the pair dropped below the key support at 0.7170, which was the lowest level in September. The pair has also moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. Therefore, there is a possibility that the bearish trend will continue ahead of the RBA decision. The drop will likely be saved by a relatively hawkish RBA statement. RBA Decision The AUD/USD declined after Australia confirmed the community spread of Omicron, the latest variant of COVID-19. In a statement during the weekend, the country’s health ministry confirmed that 5 people had contracted the new variant in Sydney. There are worries that more people will continue to contract the illness. Therefore, there is a likelihood that this variant will have an impact on the RBA, which started its meeting today. Before the Omicron variant, most analysts were expecting that the RBA will tweak its statement about when it will start hiking interest rates. In the previous meetings, the bank insisted that it will hike interest rates in 2024. Therefore, the next key catalyst for the AUD/USD will be the RBA statement on interest rates even as the government comes up with solutions on the virus. It is unclear whether the Australian government will impose new lockdowns to curb the new spread. The uncertainty of the RBA comes at a time when the Federal Reserve has hinted that it will start embracing a more hawkish policy. In a statement last week, the Fed Chair confirmed that the bank will unwind its $100+ billion quantitative easing policy earlier than expected. Powell also noted that the current variant will likely lead to higher inflation in the country. He also warned that the variant will affect job creation. Data published on Friday showed that the US economy is seeing slow job growth. The economy added more than 240k jobs in November, lower than the expected 500k+.
Short
by SmoothJB
AUD/USDThe Australian dolar has been falling sharply, due to risk-off sentiment hitting hard as concerns rise about the economic impact of the new omicron coronavirus variant. The Australian economy is already contracting sharply, as was revealed by last week’s GDP data which showed a quarterly contraction of 1.9%. The USD is relatively strong, so this pair is a major focus of the Forex market and has seen lots of action. The price of this currency pair ended last week right near its low after falling by more than 1.66%, closing at an 18-month low price with strong bearish momentum. These are all bearish signs and there is a good chance that the price will see another strong fall like last week, so there will probably be an opportunity for a short trade here.
Short
by SmoothJB
The tone has taken a turn. More downside for AUDUSDThere are two new macro uncertainties we are going through right now. 1. Omnicron strain 2. Fed bringing forth the date to raise rates Both of which spells trouble for the global economy which explains the risk off attitudes we are seeing in the market this week. We should see more downside come for the aussie dollar in the coming weeks unless there is a 180 degrees shift in macro sentiments. BEAR CASE It looks like price is ready to dump from here to retest the 0.67 levels. BULL CASE If we see a short consolidation to the upside this coming week, we will be looking for our shorts.
Short
by IkanBilisCapital
AUDUSD SHORTING OPPORTUNITYHello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a LIKE and FOLLOW for more creation of free analysis. \m/ We have a Weekly ICI to the downside where we have taken the fibbonacci from the high to the low of the impulse and we can see that structure is lining up with the 0.382 of the fibonacci retracement and we will take our entry at the 4H time frame, where we see more clearer where the structure is lining up with our 0.382. We placed our SL above the recent high and our take profit is at the -0.272 of the fibo taken on the impulse of the weekly. ~TRADE SIGNAL~ SELL Entry: 0.72504 Take Profit: 0.69291 Stop Loss: 0.73195 **NOTE: > ENTRY: For some of our entries please wait for the break and retest of the level before entering. > BREAKEVEN: Wait for the market to create a new structure (SnR) before BE. Good luck! You have plenty of time to achieve your target. Take it slow, observe good risk management techniques. ~FX_SHIFTER
Short
by fx_shifter
AUD/USD Forex Signal: Aussie at Risk as Omicron ArrivesAustralia Detects Omicron The AUD/USD pair tumbled sharply as Australia became one of the few countries to detect the new Omicron variant. The country’s health ministry confirmed two new cases of the variant and there are concerns that more people will be infected. Therefore, there are concerns about how this growth in infections will affect the country’s economy. The only optimism is that the country’s federal and state governments have committed to reopening even as the number of cases rise. Business groups have also warned about new local and international restrictions. The government will also implement a three-day isolation period for all international arrivals. Therefore, the new number of cases has led to worries that the Reserve Bank of Australia will sound dovish when it meets next week. Analysts were expecting that the RBA will tweak its policy statement and hint that rates will rise in 2023 instead of the previous 2024. The next key data to move the AUD/USD will be Australia’s private home approvals and housing credit that will come out on Tuesday. The pair will also react to testimony by Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair. This will be his first statement since he was reappointed by Joe Biden. Analysts will be waiting for any change in sentiment during this meeting. Also, they will be watching out for any change in tone about the new variant of the virus. The AUD/USD will also react to the latest pending home sales numbers from the United States. Pending home sales are expected to rise by 1% after falling by 2.3% in the previous month. The AUD/USD pair has been in a major sell-off in the past few weeks. And last week, the pair managed to move below the key support level at 0.7170, which was the lowest level in October. It has also managed to drop below the 25-day and 15-day moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also been in a bearish trend. Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling as bears target the key support at 0.7050. On the flip side, a move above 0.7200 will invalidate this view. Bearish View Sell the AUD/USD and add a take-profit at 0.7050. Add a stop-loss at 0.7180. Timeline: 1-2 days. Bullish View Set a buy-stop at 0.7150 and a take-profit at 0.7250. Add a stop-loss at 0.7050. The AUD/USD pair sell-off accelerated on Monday as concerns about the new Covid-19 variant remained. The pair dropped to a multi-month low of 0.7115, which was the lowest level since August. This was 5.7% below its October high of 0.7550.
Short
by SmoothJB
AUDUSD played out just as we expected!The pair dump farther down this week after breaking out of the channel structure it was trading in. It is at a point where consolidation could happen before more downside. BULL CASE I think it is likely we see some consolidation at these levels before more downside. If this happens, 0.71680 is a good level to short again with controlled risk. BEAR CASE If price continues the dump next week to the 0.7038 levels, expect to see strong support. It will be a wick out kind of move on the weekly.
Long
by IkanBilisCapital
AUD/USD Forex Signal: Bears Still in Control For NowBearish View Sell the AUD/USD and add a take-profit at 0.7165. Add a stop-loss at 0.7300. Timeline: 1-2 days. Bullish View Set a buy-stop at 0.7250 and a take-profit at 0.7350. Add a stop-loss at 0.7150. The four-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD pair has been in a major bearish trend lately. The pair has even managed to move below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Additionally, it has moved below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the money flow index (MFI) has started forming a bullish divergence pattern. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling this week as bears target the September low at 0.7165. On the flip side, a move above the key resistance at 0.7300 will invalidate this view. Fed and RBA Divergence The AUD/USD pair has tumbled mostly because of the relatively strong US dollar. In the past few weeks, the dollar has surged as investors reflect on the strong economic data from the US. As a recap, data published this month showed that the US added more than 543k jobs in October. In the same period, the unemployment rate declined to 4.6% while wages rose by 4.9%. Meanwhile, additional data showed that the country’s inflation surged to the highest level in more than 30 years. At the same time, retail sales defied odds and surged in October. Therefore, these numbers signal that the Federal Reserve will continue with its tightening policies. Elsewhere, in Australia, recent data has painted of an economy that is making a comeback after going through a rough patch a few months ago. The country’s labor market has done well while inflation and retail sales have also bounced back. Most importantly, Australian home prices have jumped to the highest level on record. Unlike the Federal Reserve, the RBA has maintained a relatively dovish stance. In its recent minutes, the bank signalled that it will hike interest rates in 2024. That announcement caught investors by a surprise since most of them expected the bank to hike rates sooner. This week, the AUD/USD pair will react mostly to economic numbers from the US. The US government will publish the important housing statistics that are expected to show that the sector did well. The US will also publish durable goods orders and GDP data.
Short
by SmoothJB
AUD/USD 4HR CHART SET UPHi everyone this is my trade set up for the AUS/USD for the new week ahead AUS/USD i think will push lower as it still is in a nice downtrend and head and shoulders showing on the weekly chart its all in our favour so i am expecting a pullback to the order block zone and will be looking for a sell trade look for pullback to zone lined off on chart then if it meets your criteria for a trade then execute This is my analysis only please trade with caution and risk management in place good luck for this weeks trading please like and comment both are welcome
Short
by Costy13
AUD/USD Forecast: AUD Breaks Below 0.73 Towards TrendlineThe Australian dollar fell again on Wednesday to reach below the 0.73 level. This is an area that will attract a certain amount of attention, but more importantly, we have a significant uptrend line underneath. The question now is whether or not we will see some type of value hunting in this region? If we do break down below the uptrend line, then it opens up a flood of fresh selling, opening up the possibility of reaching down towards the 0.7150 level. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar has a high correlation to China as well, and the Chinese situation seems to be dire at times. The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided that it is going to remain dovish, while the Federal Reserve continues to see reasons to taper the bond purchases, thereby tightening monetary policy. With this, it continues to shift the dynamic towards a divergence between these two banks, meaning that the US dollar should continue to see plenty of reasons to go higher. With this being the case, I would look at short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion as an opportunity to get short again. The 50-day EMA above would be massive resistance, which also is backed up by the “tweezer top” that we had formed over the previous couple of sessions. With that, I like the idea of looking at this through the prism of “can we get above there or not?” Looking at this chart, the market will continue to be very noisy, but it certainly looks as if we are trying to continue the major downtrend, which could continue to see this market reached towards the crucial 0.70 level underneath. This comes down to the US dollar more than anything else, so I think given enough time we are likely to see this market really make a huge flush lower if we get a sudden “risk off” type of attitude. To the upside, if we were to take above the 200-day EMA, then it is possible that we could go looking towards the 0.75 handle above, which is the beginning of significant resistance longer-term that extends to the 0.76 at all. Clearing that than would make the see a “buy-and-hold” currency. Looking at this chart, the market will continue to be very noisy, but it certainly looks as if we are trying to continue the major downtrend.
Short
by SmoothJB
AUD/USD Forex Signal: Beginning ConsolidationI wrote last Tuesday that a long trade generally did not look like a good idea, and that the resistance level at 0.7430 did look quite strong, so it might provide a short trade – I was prepared to go short if we get a firm reversal off that level, which we did. The picture now shows the former large swings up and down in this currency pair beginning to narrow, with the first signs of a consolidation pattern emerging between 0.7321 and 0.7390. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its most recent monthly meeting a few hours ago, with the key takeaway being that the RBA does not expect to raise its interest rate in 2022. This as expected has had a small dovish effect on the Aussie, but nothing really of any technical significance above a scalping kind of time frame. If I am correct about this consolidative atmosphere, the best opportunities ahead in this currency pair will be likely to be either a long trade from a bounce at 0.7321 or a short trade from 0.7390 again. I prefer a short trade as the US Dollar is in a long-term bullish trend, meaning a short trade should be likely to have a higher chance of producing a better result. Short Trade Ideas Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7390 or 0.7430. Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high. Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit. Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride. Long Trade Idea Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7321 or 0.7267. Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low. Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit. Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short
by SmoothJB