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Audusdsetup

Divergent Inflation Paths: AUDUSD Set for Bearish MovementAnalysis for AUDUSD: Bearish Outlook 1. U.S. Inflation Trends: - Recent Data: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an increase of 3.4% year-over-year in December, the highest in three months. This rise was more than expected, indicating a continued inflationary pressure. - Core Inflation: Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, remains firm. Notable increases were seen in used cars, apparel, housing, and car insurance costs. - Federal Reserve's Challenge: The Fed faces a difficult path in achieving its 2% inflation target. The recent data suggests that the decline in goods and energy prices is slowing, while inflation in housing and services remains high. 2. Impact on AUDUSD: - Rising U.S. Inflation: Higher inflation typically leads to expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Fed. This could result in a stronger USD as interest rates may rise to combat inflation. - Market Response: The release of the inflation data led to a fall in the S&P 500 and fluctuations in Treasuries, reflecting market uncertainty. 3. Comparison with Australian Economy: - Australian Inflation: The Australian economy is reportedly experiencing a decrease in inflation, moving towards stabilization. This contrasts with the U.S. situation, where inflation remains a concern. - Economic Stability: Greater stability in the Australian economy, compared to the ongoing inflationary challenges in the U.S., might typically favor the AUD. However, the current global economic environment appears to favor the USD. 4. Global and Political Factors: - Global Risks: Rising shipping costs and potential escalations in the Middle East could impact global inflation trends, potentially affecting currency markets. - U.S. Political Climate: Inflation continues to be a significant issue in U.S. politics, affecting public opinion and potentially influencing economic policy. 5. Technical Analysis: - Technical Indicators: Traders should look for technical confirmation of a bearish trend, such as resistance levels, moving averages, and RSI indicators. - Price Action: Watch for bearish patterns or breaks below key support levels in AUDUSD. Conclusion: Given the higher inflation rates in the U.S. and the expectation of continued Fed intervention to control inflation, there is a potential for a stronger USD against the AUD. However, traders should continuously monitor evolving economic data and geopolitical events that could influence market sentiment and currency values. Technical analysis should be used to validate any trading decisions in the context of current market conditions.
Short
by Wiiso
3
AUDUSD Technical Analysis And Trade IdeaThe AUDUSD pair has been showcasing a robust bullish trend recently. Our focal point narrows down to the 1D and 4H time frames, strategically aiming to pinpoint the most advantageous entry positions amidst a substantial price swing that is expected to undergo a retracement phase. Our primary focus revolves around identifying retracement levels within the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci zone, an area we favor for optimal entry opportunities. This video delves into the intricacies of price action, market structure, and overarching trends, unveiling pivotal insights into technical analysis. Throughout this analysis, we delve into crucial elements: market structure dynamics, nuances of price action, trends' patterns, and fundamental technical analysis components. It is crucial to underline that this content serves purely educational purposes. Therefore, it is imperative to refrain from interpreting it as financial advice.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
AUDUSD - W1 strong support approaching Analyzing the weekly chart of AUDUSD, our outlook anticipates a price decline toward the lower boundary of the channel, which also coincides with the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level. We expect the Australian dollar (AUD) to establish strong support at the 0.62750 level. Following this expected support, our projection foresees a robust upward movement toward the 0.66700 level. Our initial stop-loss will be set at 0.61700, positioned just below the previous low recorded in October 2022. This stop-loss level is approximately 1.5% below our anticipated entry point. Importantly, this trade maintains a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 1:4. Please remember that trading carries inherent risks, and market conditions can change swiftly. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always exercise prudent risk management and consider various factors when making trading decisions.
Long
by Coder775
1
AUDUSD BUY - High probability tradeHi Everyone, it's been a while but I'll slowly get back at posting my trading ideas here. Today's setup is on AUDUSD. AUD has had a good rally with the US Dollar weakness, which is currently retracing and reaching a key level. My Setup takes into account the 50% Fibonacci retracement as well as 0.65200 area of previous resistance that could be tested as a support to continue to move price up! I'm placing my stop loss below the Order Block that broke recent structure - in case the market does not respect that level, this setup will no longer be valid and we should look for another opportunity. However, I think this is a great trading idea with added confluences! Let me know your thoughts! Good luck! Cheers, Gaspar_Trader
Long
by Gaspar_Trader
AUSSIE RALLY IS STARTING! [AUDUSD] LONG POSITIONIntroduction: The AUD/USD currency pair is exhibiting compelling signals hinting at a potential trend reversal, with a particular focus on the recent price action and key technical levels. Current Status: As of the close of the New York session, the price has firmly held ground at 0.65100, maintaining its position above crucial support levels. A noteworthy observation on the daily timeframe is the rebound from the 31.8% Fibonacci retracement level, signaling resilience in the bullish sentiment. Structural Shift: The narrative evolves further when examining the structure of the market. From early November, there was a notable Break of Structure (BOS), suggesting a shift in market dynamics. However, as of November 16, a Change of Character (CHOC) is evident, signaling a potential reversal in the prevailing trend. 4-Hour Bullish Momentum: Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, candlestick patterns reflect a robust bullish trend. Multiple bullish candles with few wicks rejecting the 0.65150 zone, coupled with positive volume, create a compelling case for an imminent breakout. The 0.65150 level, appearing as a psychological barrier, is poised for a potential rupture. Long Position Opportunity: Considering the current dynamics, there appears to be a Long Position opportunity on the horizon. A favorable entry scenario is anticipated if the price successfully breaks the 0.65150 zone and undergoes a retest, confirming the newfound support. This setup presents a potential profit target of approximately 80 pips. Intraday Insights: During the overlap of the London and New York sessions, the price action adds another layer of intrigue. A Hammer candlestick followed by a Belt candlestick suggests a tussle between sellers and buyers. Despite the sellers' attempt to push the price down, the momentum from buyers appears to be gaining strength, setting the stage for a potential rally. Conclusion: In conclusion, the AUD/USD pair is displaying multiple indicators signaling a potential reversal and the initiation of a bullish trend. Traders are advised to closely monitor the 0.65150 zone for a breakout, and consider a Long Position with a retest confirmation. The recent price action, structural shifts, and intraday patterns collectively contribute to a compelling case for a rally in the Aussie.
Long
by e11p
1
💡 AUDUSD: Impacted by increased interest ratesThe Australian economy is facing significant challenges due to the rising domestic interest rates, placing immense strain on its economic stability. Despite ongoing global economic uncertainties, Australia has been unable to evade the repercussions, leading to a continuous decline in the Australian dollar over the past five trading days. Despite the apparent stern stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in its policy, investors remain skeptical, providing minimal support to the Australian dollar. Many are unconvinced of the likelihood of an actual interest rate hike, with consensus suggesting that such a move is improbable until at least May, two years from now. Recent trends in the AUD/USD pair indicate a potential bottoming out followed by a rebound. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has displayed a golden cross formation beneath the zero axis and is now trending towards the 48-hour moving average. However, the future trajectory of the Australian dollar remains contingent on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October. Should the data bolster the US dollar, it is anticipated that the Australian dollar will continue its downward trajectory.
Short
by Stone_Haven