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Aussiedollar

AUD/USD: Potential swing trade long setupAUD posted a strong rally of 5% from the April low, before 67c capped as resistance. A choppy rage has since formed between 66c-67c, although it could also be a bull flag in the making. Whilst we wait for it to decide which of the two it is, we're looking at a cheeky swing trade long idea heading into the weekend. The 1-hour chart shows a strong rally from US CPI, and recent prices action has retraced against that move. Prices are stabilising around the 20-day EMA, so perhaps it is close to a swing low. The bias is bullish whilst prices hold above the monthly pivot point (0.6610), but tighter risk management could be used if momentum turns higher (such as the recent swing lows). The initial target is near the upper 1-day implied volatility band of 0.6657.
Long
by CityIndex
A cautious bounce for AUD/USD ahead of US CPI, FOMCFriday's nonfarm payroll report took many by surprise to send the USD dollar sharply higher against all of its major peers. And that clearly took it toll on the Aussie, which suffered its worst day in five weeks. A bearish outside week formed, all thanks to an elongated bearish engulfing candle on Friday. AUD/USD managed a minor rebound from its 100 and 200-day EMAs on Monday, but it was a public holiday in Australia and China so the move is assume to corrective. The 1-hour chart shows prices are sitting around the monthly pivot point and 38.2% Fibonacci level, so we're looking for a swing trade short whilst prices remain beneath 0.6630 and for a move down to 0.6560.
Short
by CityIndex
Australia's Inflation Data Revealed Soon Australia's Inflation Data Revealed Soon Next week, Australia will unveil its latest inflation figures. Import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts direct to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance and seize trading opportunities. Projections suggest a notable dip in Australia's headline inflation to 3.4%, down from the previous 4.1%, a steep decline that could fail to materialize. other advanced economies are poised to outperform Australia in price reduction efforts, with a median inflation rate expected to reach 2% by 2025. “Somewhat worryingly, progress toward inflation targets has somewhat stalled since the beginning of the year”, said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist. Traders currently anticipate a 60% likelihood of a rate cut by the RBA in December. However, if the actual inflation figure falls short of the forecasted 3.4%, this expectation may diminish, potentially bolstering the AUD. Yesterday's marginal uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.8% last month suggests that February's unexpected drop to 3.7% was not an anomaly. This development may only make it more difficult for the Reserve Bank to consider initiating rate cuts in the near future.
by BlackBull_Markets
The Aussie is Vulnerable Despite its BounceAUD/USD rises after its 2024 lows as the greenback’s strength deflates, eying the pivotal EMA200 and daily closes above it would shift bias to the upside. However, such outcome has high degree of difficulty technically. The EMA200 can contain the rebound and sustain the bearish bias, which would keep the Aussie exposed to the 2023 lows (0.6269). The hawkish repricing around the Fed is likely to continue to help for the USDollar, as stubborn inflation, strong economy and robust labor market favor a conservative approach around rate cuts by the Fed. Its Australian counterpart seems to be further from such moves at this stage, but today’s poor labor data strengthen the case for an RBA pivot. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
Buyers' appetite for the AUD has increasedBy examining the trend in the one-hour time frame, the Australian dollar is fluctuating in an upward channel, and considering the high rate of moving averages of the ALLIAGTOR indicator, the probability of the continuation of the upward trend is very high. In general, this scenario is strengthened, that the rate can rise to the resistance of the ceiling of the ascending channel in the range of 0.6687, provided that no closing of the four-hour candle time is recorded below the support interval in the range of 0.6611-0.6598.
Long
by arongroups
AUD/JPY Opportunity? BOJ and RBA announce decisions together Is the AUD/JPY the trade to make at the beginning of the coming week? Both the BoJ and the RBA are delivering their latest interest rate decisions on Monday morning, 30 minutes from each other. The Bank of Japan is up first, at 11:00 pm on Monday (US time UTC –4). The Reserve Bank of Australia follow at 11:30 pm. What's expected from each bank? According to sources quoted by Reuters, the Bank of Japan is leaning toward exiting negative rates this month. This is something that would really be a huge shock to the market. It would be the year's story, but do most traders believe this is possible, or is April the more likely timeline? Even a hint of an April rate hike could be a huge event in the market. From the RBA, traders might be looking for a rate cut, but won't likely get it. An argument on the side of a rate cut involves the RBA getting nervous about what the Wall Street Journal calls a “Deepening Property Crisis of its Own Making”. Sarah Hunter, the Assistant Governor of the RBA, addressed the economic and inflation forecast during a panel discussion at the AFR Business Summit on Tuesday, stating that “Households are clearly struggling at present.”
by BlackBull_Markets
2
New lows for Aussie Dollar Futures Coming? CME Australian dollar futures have pulled back to the neckline of the recent head and shoulders pattern, which presents bears with a formidable selling opportunity. Recent strength in the USD has certainly been a boon to Australian dollar futures, and with the influx of encouraging economic data in the U.S.over the past few weeks, it appears likely that strength will persist. Moreover, greater confidence in the breakdown of Aussie dollar futures can be drawn with the increased selling pressure on the break through the neckline on the right shoulder. Over the course of the next few weeks, it is likely that the neckline will begin to act as resistance if prices indeed accelerate lower. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:6A1!Short
by Blue_Line_Futures
Potential swing trade long on AUD/USDLike NZD/USD, the Aussie is refusing to roll over despite a strong US inflation report. That is in itself a sign of strength. The daily chart is yet to see a close beneath the Q3 open, and the lows are holding above the 50-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci level. A bullish RSI divergence also formed from the oversold zone to suggest a swing low has formed or is near. The bias remains bullish above last week's low ad for an initial move to 0.6750 - a break above which assumes a move for 0.6800.
Long
by CityIndex
AUD bears eye break below 65c, but a bounce could be due firstRisk aversion reigns supreme, casting a dark cloud over AUD/USD just before today’s employment report drops. A stellar jobs report is unlikely to spark calls for an imminent RBA hike, but it might prompt some short covering on the Aussie. Besides, there are early signs of stability above the 65c zone with Wednesday’s lower wick, which saw a false break of the lower keltner band. Perhaps some mean reversions is due. Bulls could seek dips towards 65c with a stop below and initially target the 200-day MA – a break above which assumes a deeper retracement and relief rally for global stocks. However, given our bias for the US dollar remains bullish over the weeks ahead, bears may want to seek evidence of a swing high forming below 0.6650 before committing to fresh shorts. A break beneath 65c brings 0.6370 into focus.
Long
by CityIndex
AUD/USD BULLISH OUTLOOKThe USD, having experienced substantial blows from rate cut projections, faces a challenging scenario with the Fed signaling probable easing. Despite the narrative of falling inflation, policymakers are aiming to relay the message that inflation has yet to stabilize sustainably near the targeted 2%. The looming Fed speeches, particularly Chair Powell's impending remarks, serve as preludes to the blackout period before the December policy meeting, crucial in shaping market expectations. As the USD grapples with uncertainties, major currency pairs are capitalizing on its weakness. The AUD, alongside currencies like the GBP and NZD, has displayed resilience, buoyed by a hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). However, doubts persist about China's economic revival, making forthcoming Australian CPI readings pivotal for short-term AUD prospects. The AUD/USD technical indicators signal a bullish trajectory, with both MACD and RSI showing buy signals. The current trend could potentially elevate the price to levels around 0.6795, although a pivot point at 0.6648 might redirect the price to around 0.6598. With the USD on a downtrend, and pivotal economic events looming, the AUD's performance against the greenback hinges heavily on data releases, central bank policies, and global economic sentiments in the days ahead. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Long
by legacyFXofficial
High Stakes: RBA rate decision vs. Melbourne Cup We are about 8 hours away from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision. That decision is due on Tuesday at 2:30 pm (local Aussie time), a couple of hours before the country's biggest horse race, the Melbourne Cup ($8 million in prize money) is set to take place. But perhaps the more exciting match ups will be occurring in the forex market. Currently, the market is thinking there is a 70% chance of a 25-basis points hike because of the RBA governor's rhetoric that the bank would "not hesitate to raise the cash rate further" if inflation was higher than expected (which it was in its last quarterly reading). The 30% chance of no hike is possibly driven by concerns about mortgage stress in the country after the post-COVID 12 cash rate increases. On the flip side of some potential AUD trades, we have expectations for the US Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) enacting a 25-basis points cut by June next year. Weaker-than-expected NFP figures in the U.S. last Friday bolstered expectations that the Fed was done with its tightening campaign and pulled the AUD/USD up past 0.64900 from 0.64400. This makes me question whether the upside to the AUD/USD is all played out. Moments after the interest rate announcement will be crucial to see which direction the market wants to take. If the RBA does enact a hike today, concerns about mortgage stress in Australia might induce the pair to revisit some of the levels the pair traversed last Friday during its climb just before market close.
by BlackBull_Markets
AUDJPY: Expecting a strong start to the week before BoJI'm expecting continued Aussie strength as the market expects China recovery is in progress. BoJ interest rate and minutes will be big news on Friday, but before then I expect to see a continuation up within the current rising channel, breaking and retest initial support around 95.6 to rise to test the 96.6 support. We're heading into very choppy waters now, and I expect BoJ to start defending their currency so I'm mindful to have very tight SL's up here, moving to BE as soon as possible and ultimately preparing for a reversal, but I think there's a little way to go yet. With Aussie building momentum I feel confident in still being long here, but being uber-careful as you never know what will happen!
Long
by Finchcliffe
2
AUD/USD Forecast: Analyzing the Future OutlookDuring the previous week, our market performance demonstrated a degree of advancement; however, it presently exhibits characteristics of range-bound behavior. It is worth noting that last week, there was an upward movement, with an attempt to challenge the significant monthly resistance level of 64.58. Remarkably, this resistance level held firm through the close of trading on Friday. For the upcoming trading week, our primary focal point is the 64.58 resistance level. Should the price maintain its resistance at this level, it could prompt a subsequent descent towards the established daily and weekly support levels. The envisaged scenario involves a potential break to the downside after navigating through these support levels.
Short
by Blackerberg
2
AUD/USD looks set for a retest of 65cDespite strong data from the US and weak data from China over the past few weeks, AUD/USD bears have failed to keep the Aussie below 64c. Even a strong inflation report from the US on Wednesday resulted in the Aussie springing back above that key level. Since then, we have seen the pair break a retracement line on the 1-hour chart as part of a bullish breakout ahead of the Australian employment report. The okay jobs numbers provide no reason for bears to jump in, but it has pulled back from current cycle highs. AUD now looks good to bullish eyes around current levels, and a move towards 65c is favoured as long as prices remain above 64c (although tighter risk management could be used as 0.6410 as an invalidation point).
Long
by CityIndex
AUD/USD Forecast: Analyzing the Future OutlookThe AUDUSD pair hasn't been moving much lately, which confirms that the bearish trend, or the expectation for prices to go down, is still in place for the near future. We believe this because a line called EMA50 is pushing prices down, and we're aiming for a target of 0.6300 as our main goal. To keep this expected downtrend going, it's crucial for prices to stay below 0.6400. On Friday, we saw that the expected range of trading was between 0.6320 as the lowest point and 0.6410 as the highest point. It's important to watch these levels closely as you make your way through the market.
Short
by Blackerberg