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Aussiedollar

China GDP Numbers: THE Reversal for the Aussie?Next week I will be focused on AUD/USD for a few reasons. Although straight forward data such as Australian employment change and business confidence numbers on Thursday will surely have an impact on the Aussie, what I'm more focused on is the systemic impact that Chinese GDP numbers will have on Monday. Monday morning, China's Q2 GDP, as well as a host of other important readings for June, will hit the wires at 02:00 UTC. It's important to understand how dependent Australia is on China. They are the largest destination for outbound goods and services for Australia, accounting for approx. 1/3rd of every dollar that is exported each year. The record-breaking period of expansion seen by Australia is directly accredited to its dependability on China. For example, this was in direct correlation to China giving loans --some of which were interest-free-- to Australia during and after the Great Recession; a term called "debt-trapping diplomacy" (Chan 2018). Australia clearly has benefited from this, however, it also has its negatives that I believe will prove to be detrimental to the Aussie-dollar beginning next Monday if China's GDP numbers print unexpectedly low. The Aussie will be the direct and most significant target for these numbers and I can assure you with a guarantee it will move the candle. Fed expectations driving the Greenback lower over the last week is old news and eyes will be shifted back to 'trade wars' between the U.S. and China, growth, and earnings from U.S. equities. I will be paying close attention to AUD/USD, as a deterioration of Chinese GDP could be the catalyst for one of the cleanest long term reversals seen by the Aussie since 2017. An extended bear trend, a clear descending wedge, an inverse head & shoulder (short term), and a 200-day moving average looming above are all technical reversal formations that I have my eyes on. This is the same setup that we identified earlier this summer with EUR/USD in which is broke to the upside after a 6-month decline. Can this be the catalyst for an AUD reversal? It will be very tuff to trade this pair following Monday's GDP number, but I am nevertheless eager to trade the reaction and not the news.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn3442968
AUDCAD harmonic structureSimple idea..with price in a discounted favorable spot. We seem to be close to the 127 fib extension with a bullish harmonic XABCD pattern. I see a reversal coming soon. I have entered for a 1:2 risk ratio here on the FX account. We are at a new low for daily and we are pretty far down on weekly as well. Have a look at most of the aussie pairs. I think you'll find a lot of good setups coming our way! Price is currently in a pinching pennant. I would love for a breakout INV head and shoulder reversal confirmation from here. A solid break above the high of June 4th (.93 zone) will surely take us back to point C. :) I am aussie strong for a few weeks
Long
by AschraM
2
AUDCHF 7/9/2019 Similar AUD structures. I am playing off the wick on the right from Jan. If CHF continues to get strong price can exceed to a full fib extension before a rise. I see it has already finished a harmonic cycle and could now be entering an ABC retest and trend continuation into a new HIGH price but below the 800 MA. Price has broken out off the bottom of the angular range and just above the 127 fib ext. on a new impulse wave after the correction we had from .72 to .67 it didnt take long for price to get this far down. It would be a nice ride back up if Aussie continues some quarterly strength I hope you enjoy this idea. I am already in from the reversal at .6835 with a tight break even stop loss. I have pulled half my profits out of the market already and awaiting TP zone.
Long
by AschraM
2
AUD/USD - SECOND DISTRIBUTION PATTERN FORMING - HEADING LOWER?A clear second distribution pattern is forming. We have selling into the moves higher on the recent BC and ST by the looks of the volume. We are also approaching a re-test of the AR in the first larger distribution pattern. The downward trend that has formed also indicates a re-test approaching. Watching this closely for some reversal signals to get into a longer term short trade. Do your own research and good luck.
Short
by AussieWyckoff
5
The Aussie Dollar Is About to Fall To 60 US Cents.The RBA is aggressively cutting the cash rate in the face of falling house prices and potentially Australia's first technical recession in 28 years. As rates are cut the interest on Aussie bonds also fall causing investors to flee Aussie bonds in search of safer higher yielding bonds like US treasuries. This in turn puts downwards pressure on the Aussie Dollar and is potentially going to push the Aussie down through decade long support with nothing below us until we hit 60 US cents. The RBA is effectively sacrificing the Aussie dollar to try and prop up house prices and force the population into even more debt (Australia already has the HIGHEST private debt to GDP ratio in the WORLD). A quick look through history at countries that choose the path of a weaker currency is scattered with 3rd world economies. A weaker currency is never the solution no matter how tempting, but for the Aussies the only other path is a recession and property market collapse if the RBA doesn't cut. So, given that trying to save the economy by sacrificing the Aussie dollar is the politically expedient thing to do, it will be done. Expect interest rates in Australia to fall to 0.5% if not lower, and the Aussie dollar to fall off a cliff. If these rate cuts somehow manage to stop the property market from falling (Not even a probable guarantee) Aussies might be able to sell their home for more than they paid, but when they travel overseas with the profits they will only be able to afford half the things they used to. People will say "why are hotels so expensive overseas? Last time I was here it was $200 per night now its $500 per night!" without even realizing its the Aussie dollar that's falling not hotel prices rising. This is the story of how every third world country started their decline into poverty, monetary mismanagement. In my humble opinion the RBA's rate cuts will not be enough to save the property market simply because they are starting the easing cycle from historically low levels, meaning there's no room to stimulate before they hit the zero lower bound (0.0%). Not only will we end up in a deep recession with a crashing property market, we will also end up with a weakening currency making anything to do with overseas far more expensive, from imports to holidays and everything inbetween, adding even more pain to the coming recession.
Short
by Markster
1
Aussie Strength to Come? - Ichimoku AUD/USD Long Trade SetupAussie was on a bearish streak before finally finding some footing and ending the week in the kumo. We are close to a bullish kumo twist, but we're still have trouble breaking through resistance where price was stopped. I've drawn an entry line right above that level that needs to be broken to confirm a long entry for me. My overall target will be previous price structure highs from our previous trade you can see to the left. I've also drawn out multiple partial take profit levels to aim for along the way, but I will let some of the position run, as long as it is in profit.
Long
by The808Trader
AUD/USD (An explosive UPside is on the card?)View On AUD/USD (22 June 2019) First Thing First: Pls read our prev analysis. Back Ground: We are seeing decent bullish attempt as the bullish structure start to form. "If it works out" it shall go easily yo 0.697 first and possibly even higher. Target(s): UP 0697 (TP1), 0.708 (TP2) , 0.7112 (TP3) , 0.721 (TP4) SHTF: 0.685 should act as a decent support. DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Thank You! Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
by SonicDeejay
AUD/USD: Double Bottom. The bulls have to take out 0.7!Hello dear Forex & Aussie-Dollar friends, the bulls better show some reaction now! On the weekly we're at clear 2015 & 16 lows , which currently gives a good bounce opportunity. We had a clear Descending Triangle break previously, with the strong bottom trendline break of the 0.7 USD range. Now the bulls reacted at the 0.685 range, building a nice potential Double Bottom , with the pullback high exactly at the previous bottom of 0.7. => The bulls definitely have to see the break of this neckline, to see a nice bounce opportunity into the 70ies range again. If they fail to show some reaction now, it doesn't look good on the Monthly: 2009 lows at 0.62 range would be waiting. If you had some value from my analysis, give it a thumbs-up & comment it, because the mechanism shows my analysis to other people then. Make also sure to follow me so you get notified on my analyses! I wish you a good trading! :) Edgy is providing online mentorship & trading metrics only. We are not a financial advisor, nor do we hold any formal qualifications in this area. You're trading at your own risk. No matter what you do, please set your stop loss. Please be aware, that you can lose all your money on the online exchanges.
Long
by Edgy_
A Kicking Kangaroo? - AUD/USD Ichimoku Long Trade SetupThis pair has finally found some support before entering into the current consolidation zone price has been stuck in. I am looking for a break and close above the recent price structure resistance we've seen for a chance to get long. Some of this movement may be volatility based with the US news and tariff war going, so we may get a push pretty fast depending on how that situation develops. With NFP also coming down the pike, we will need to be aware that it could affect things drastically as well based on the data that is released and how the market receives it. If we fail to break price structure resistance to our entry level, or if we break down lower out of the current consolidation area, this setup may become invalidated.
Long
by The808Trader
2