Correlations Between AUDUSD, Coal, and Iron OreI've been taking quite a deep look at the relationship between correlatives of the Australian dollar lately. There's no question that this deep dive would be remiss without looking at correlation coefficients between AUDUSD and that of commodities it exports, primarily iron ore and coal. The chart really speaks for itself. Aussie dollar sees strength when coal and iron prices are up, weakness when its down. Pretty simple. Not much more to say beyond that, but the implications for this relationship are quite fundamental to several questions vis-a-vis the Australian economy such as financial diversification, their reliance upon Chinese imports, not to mention the environmental tolls the Aussies have suffered from global carbon emissions. All issues, public policy or financial, must recognize this important financial relationship before going forward to reassess any changes to the economy that come down on it. At the very least, the implications of these correlations need to be recognized.
Aussiedollar
AUDCAD - Sell OpportunityCriteria:
1. Fibo retracement 62%
2. Fibo extension 161%
3. 2011 low
4. Previous 2019 high
5. The round number 0.96000
6. Channel projections
From a technical perspective, this level should be pretty strong, add here some fundamentals, etc.
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*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only!
AUDUSD Slow Decline DownwardStochastic flashes overbought while RSI is approaching this level. However, the Chaikin oscillator suggests there's some room to run higher. However, long-term 2018 downward trending resistance is a bit strong to overcome. Overall, sentiment is short, but need some more convincing as there is probably still more room to run upwards especially given the fact that moving averages point towards downward trending momentum.
Iron Ore AUDUSD Correlation DivergenceAUDUSD and iron ore have been quite tightly correlated over the years as it is one of Australia's number one exports. Now there is divergence which should be looked upon with high skepticism. Either the Aussie dollar will rise on the prospect of higher demand or the price of iron ore will retreat on the continue lack of demand if the supply side cannot remain limited.
Double Fib Levels Strong Support for AUDUSDTwo Fibonacci retracement levels come quite close to one another. The area around these double Fib levels have also acted as strong support dating all the way back into later 2018. Moreover, if price action retreats then we should probably see this same level act as support as it has been tested and retested several times. However, if price action moves to the upside, we could see that downward sloping short-term resistance to potentially hold.
AUDUSD - Northward bound to 0.8950After four years of a declining aussie dollar, and price reaching close to GFC levels, there has been a slow recovery.
Around mid 2016 price started to trend higher until the first quarter of 2018. There was that stop run again, during New Year 2019, to re-test the lows of 2016 and produce a double bottom.
This movement put price right into the buy zone on the weekly and daily charts. With the MACD confirming a divergence with price, I'm long with my first target of 0.8950.
If China Data is Weak, AUDUSD ShortThe relationship between the Aussie dollar and the Chinese economy is well studied. Clearly, Aussie dollar is a strong proxy for Chinese growth where economic figures should always be looked upon with skepticism. Overall, if the Chinese economy cannot get going, traders will first see this trend in the Aussie dollar.
AUDUSD Short on Fib Levels Trend Line Resistance Fib levels on the Aussie dollar have recently been interesting retracement levels with price action reversing at these price points. Technicals suggest a pullback, but could edge a bit higher before we see significant moves lower. Fundamentals also show downward movement BUT ONLY if Chinese growth continues to slow as the Aussie economy is probably the best exogenous proxy for Chinese growth. Vice versa, we can expect Chinese growth to pick up if data out of Australia is healthy. Overall though, my thesis is short, but is open to adjustment if the upward trend in data from China and Australia continues to show healthy growth.
AUD/NZD to move up in AprilAfter ECB & FED turn dovish mentioning global slowdown, RBNZ had no option except signalling next move to be rate cut. RBA have already been pretty dovish helping AUD/NZD to touch monthly lows in JAN - MAR. AUD/NZD finally been able to close above daily 20sma, also forms good bullish candle on monthly chart. AUD/NZD seems ready to rally in coming days/weeks. Risk remain RBA meeting on Tuesday if they announce rate cut coming sooner than later, but that will ultimately provide better rate to buy AUD/NZD. Support remain psychological area of 1.04 & 20sma near 1.360. Target to focus are 1.0490 to 1.05(daily cloud & daily 100sma) followed by 1.06 & 1.0650 .
Sell AUDUSD Because Chinese Growth Slowdown Isnt OverThere are plenty of technical reasons to avoid AUDUSD. Nearly all exponential moving averages, which more heavily weigh the more recent days than the ones further away, point towards a continuation in the downward trend. The bull bear power index also indicates that AUDUSD long is an overcrowded trade. Indeed, data from DailyFX backs up this claim with its data from its parent company IG which can be found here: www.dailyfx.com
But the thematic background is truly what will mainly driving this paid in conjunction with the likely poor data releases this weak. But the weakness in AUDUSD doesn't stem from inherent weakness in the Australian economy as much as it does weakness in the Chinese economy. Perhaps one could read this as splitting hairs since the Aussie economy is so dependent upon the Chinese. Either way, China's growth slowdown which is likely to continue amid speculation of prolonged trade war and tariffs will continue to put downward pressure on this pair. Never forget, you can trade the trend until its no longer a trend. Right now, we're still knee deep in bear signals.
If you like this analysis you can check out more of my work here www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
For Trade War Pulse Proxy, Look to AUDUSDI wrote quite a bit about overall trade war sentiment here and in general I still do think that in spite of the influence officials may have on this pair it still may react negatively to trade war sentiment, but probably much more on potential capital flows if tariffs are put back into place.
But the easier way to find a relationship between trade war sentiment and markets is the proxy of AUDUSD. This price movement is much more reflective of that sentiment, which is rhetorically breaking down, since Australia's economy is much more dependent upon China's economy than most countries or major currency pairs.
For this pair, my forecast is with the trend in that it continues down in spite of Fed doveishness. Still trailing under the 200 day exponential moving average and RSI in addition to stochastic suggest we should sell. If you like this assessment and prefer a bit more analysis on financial matters, then please check out more of my content here www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Doji Signals 7 Day Rally ReversalThe short-legged doji today tells us that the in general upward rally has come to an end as the Fed may signal doveishness, but moderate doveishness. IG says clients are net short, but only slightly. It's clear the trend is up, but is Chinese growth picking up again or are we just hoping it picks up again? I'll scalp a three percent short and sleep easy at night.