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GOLD/AUD - $2,800 Fib Target Within SightQuick update on GOLD/AUD We appear to be chugging along in a relatively undisturbed uptrend, the Fib extension targets from the April-August 2019 wave higher are pitching a potential point of resistance at the $2,800 mark as this coincides with the 1.27 extension. With a potential overshoot to just shy of $2,900 (based on Keltner channel targets) Technicals: ~ Macd is bullish and is crossing above on the daily ~ Daily RSI appears to be congruent with the move higher, with no significant divergences, the monthly RSI however, is quite overbought at press time, but is confirming the higher highs ~ Price recently checked in with the 50 ma, so there is still ample room to move higher before a more substantial pullback ~ Price appears to be respecting the 21 ema ~ Looking to the monthly, price has come quite detached from the 10 period ma, suggesting that some mean reversion is on the cards, either by way of price falling, or a period of consolidation to allow the moving averages to catch up Overall GOLD/AUD is performing very well and looks set to continue higher, at least to the $2,800-$2,900 range, at that point i would expect some selling pressure which could prove to be an ideal entry point -TradingEdge
OANDA:XAUAUDLong
by Profit_Link
ASX 200 truncated fifth? Why the Australian stock market fails In my July 2019 analysis, I assumed ASX 200 was going through a Wave 3 and will go up to 8300 in a year. However, XJO failed epically, it did not even come close to the 1.618 projection at 8300, when the American stocks were strongly bullish. During the February and March 2020 corona virus panic, XJO dropped much more than Nasdaq Composite and some other American indexes. Comparing to American market, all those failures point to some underlying weakness in the Australian stock market and broad economy. Another alarming fact is that the February 2020 all time high is 7180, right below the 3.618 projection of the 1982 to 1987 Wave 1 at 7200. In Elliott's Wave theory, Wave 5 often has some fibonacci proportionate relation with Wave 1. The Australian market is hinting here, February 2020 is the top of a truncated, 'failed' wave 5, as it failed to go significantly higher than the November 2007 top of Wave 3. If we take inflation into account, 7180 in 2020 might be actually lower than 6850 in November 2007. Fundamentally, Australian stocks perform worse than their American counterparts because we have a crazy property bubble here, making many young and old Australians curb consuming and stock investing to save for mortgage deposits. My impression is that most immigrants or new Australians prefer to invest in real estate, not old fashioned shares. Australian immigration intake has been decreasing since 2017, corresponding neatly with the first wave of housing market crash. Unemployment caused by corona virus in 2020 make the rise in property prices since late 2019 look like a dead cat bounce, a Wave B. Unfortunately 2020 might be the start of a lost decade for Australia, featured with decreasing fertility, decreasing immigration, decreasing property and stock market, rising inflation, and collapsing Australian dollar. Indeed we are similar to the Japan of 1990, just awakening from decades of dreamlike growth, easy money and unrealistic confidence. In the short term, ASX 200 is likely to try to approach 6000, getting close to 10 and 200 week moving average as resistance. This short term recovery will probably not change the bleak big picture though. My bottom line is that Australian market will drop more when the American market drops, and rise less when the American market rises, so overall Australian shares are much more bearish.
ASX:XJO
by MarcusAu
2
Australia - Watch for a Rally - Then Jump ShipLet's start with the broader picture first I understand the market looks horrific at press time, but the first thing that you must know about markets is this, nothing every goes in one direction forever, no matter how bad it seems. For context here are the three major US stock crashes. 2008 Crash 2000 Tech wreck 1929 Great Depression The second thing that you must know is that a market will TYPICALLY, not always, but typically will retrace 50% of the first wave before continuing lower, as seen in the above charts. In the most recent price action, this would entail a bounce to around 5400-5900, this is a prime opportunity to lighten exposure and prepare for another leg lower. Now, we may not get a bounce to the 50% fib level, but a move to the 38.2% is highly likely, at this point i would begin to lighten exposure and begin to buy shorting instruments, i.e. Puts. Now, where do i see the potential low? If the prior crashes throughout history are any gauge, then a top to bottom move of 50% is very likely, with the 1929 crash closer to 90%, i expect at worst we could see a middle ground, call it around 70%. This would be heavily dependent on Covid19 being far worse than governments are expecting, and a extended period of lock-down, which at press time, must not be discounted. That being said, the first targets are a "typical" 50% move from the peak, as you can see, this would erase ALL gains from the past 20 years, taking the index back to levels first reached in 2001. The third thing you must know about markets is that they go up in the long-term, emphasis on LONG-TERM. After the 2007 peak, it took over 4,300 DAYS to retread those levels. Do you have 12 years to wait? Bear in mind also, this index is not inflation adjusted, if one inflation adjusts the index we never made new highs, in other words, it has been over 13 years and we are yet to make new highs. What about Real Estate? I have long maintained the Australian real estate market is a bubble, ready to burst, with valuations in some areas exceeding over 10:1 income to Value ratios (IVR), this was inevitable and the bubble appears to be finally bursting, so no, your equity in your house will not save you. In fact, real estate priced in gold, is breaking out of a decade long slumber, what this means is that your home may gain nominal value, as governments feebly attempt to print enough money to cover the cracks, but your home will in reality be hemorrhaging real purchasing power. Welcome to the word of relative values, where your house can both go up AND down in value, simultaneously. In short, Australia has a weak economy, i have not even touched on the consumers and households overburdened with debt, the over reliance on the services industry as a primary source of GDP or the super fragile banking system, which by the way, have a huge number of "interest only loans" switching to principle and interest, over the next 18 months. Hmmm... wonder how the general households will deal with those. -TradingEdge Interest only loans: www.rba.gov.au
ASX:XAOShort
by Profit_Link
3
AUDJPY Bullish Continuation?Hi All, I am intently watching the AUDJPY pair as we continue to coil up in this symmetrical triangle. This triangle is forming after a nice bullish divergence on the 1hr timeframe. Keep an eye on this pair as we enter the final stages of what looks like a bullish continuation pattern.. However, Australia have just announced a $130B stimulus package for business and employees struggling during the COVID-19 pandemic, what does this pair do from here? Australia is due for the HIA New Home Sales report tomorrow morning so we could see this act as a moving factor during this crucial time for this pair, if we get negative news could we see the Aussie dollar lose value against the Yen? Potential manipulation (bull trap) ahead.. Keep alert and trade safe! -- MNLZ
by MinimalFiat
5
Why the ASX200 is going lower (March 25, 2020)The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred on a catastrophic 39% decline over 5 weeks in the ASX200 . Right now we're seeing the beginning of a bullish retracement as negative sentiments start to ease globally. But with most market crashes historically, nothing ever falls in a straight line. There are always retracements in a down market, otherwise known as dead cat bounces. This chart shows the ASX200 during the Global Financial Crisis ( GFC ) The full declines took an entire year and a half to play out 28 weeks in, the ASX200 had a 50% bullish retracement spanning 8 weeks. Be careful (protect capital) - wait for a solidified foundation before going long - don't try to catch falling knives.
ASX:XJOShort
by TomUnderwood
1
Dark Times For The AUDLooking at my chart, it's clear that since the beginning of the chart to Dec '13 has been in an overall ascending wedge with two notable deviations. One deviation in 2000 where a short sharp descending wedge took the AUD to the lowest point in 2001 before finally getting back to the ascending wedge by October 2003. In 2008 it again briefly dropped during the GFC and quickly by 2009 returned to the ascending wedge pattern. By 2013 the AUD begin descending and attempting to retest what was the support line of the ascending pattern. From 2014-Now it's clear that the AUD is in a descending pattern and has broken through the support line on the Monthly candle. Where it all goes from here depends on what the Australia Federal government can do, but with the fundamentals of Australia questionable I don't have high hopes. What do I mean ? simply Australia is a wealthy country on paper, but the bulk of most peoples wealth is tied up in the value of their real estate, which has been inflated to insane levels due to access to cheap credit and very generous capital gains tax laws. Most Australians are heavily reliant on overdrafts, credit cards, store cars, finance that most simply don't hoard that much cash. Many people have gone and borrowed 100%+ the value of their properties, (I can assure you that bank valuers for real estate transactions are a fraud and they NEVER under value a property, it's an everyone wins game much like getting the real estate agent to recommend you a building inspector.) Thing is that Australia outside of exporting it's mining resources, agriculture, tourism and education doesn't actually produce or make much anymore, much of the economy revolves arounds services. Given current events with the Coronavirus epidemic and global shut down, this is going to paralyze the Australian economy if it continues for long. Back in 2008 Australia was fortunate to have a cash reserve to weather the storm, this time around they are far more vulnerable with the national wealth build on a house of cards.
Short
by th3gr3k0sLaV
7
AUDJPY Probabilities Price DirectionThis is an easy game to know how the global pandemic isn't settled yet and knowing how all big central banks honchos cooperated together to fight against this pandemic by deciding to lower OCR rates equally to combat against the corona virus. State & Europe are new continents who are for now struggling and combating strongly against this pandemic. I hope they win this battle soon but for now, commodities are hampered badly it seems a pity moment to even know how badly supply chain distortion has ruin commodities overall. Comdolls have very fewer probabilities at this hard period of time to even think that they may rise back. They need some pure remedy like " vaccine development " good reports to bring back optimistic. The move upward may only be some correction or retracement on price but it will be hard to think if it is an overall reversal in trend. We all know oil has been the most interesting commodity lately and knowing how it heavily plunged due to the pandemic case so I have not much good faith over comdolls bullish sentiment at least for now. One interesting thing which I would like to talk about is how New Zeland trying to combat strongly lately knowing how it cuts the rate below RBA (which was emergency cut in the weekend, Sunday) seeing that RBA has still room, for now, to get equal to its neighboring country which probably is a case market participant may price in lower for further remaining rooms for cuts (still 0.25 bp room left comparing to other). And lastly, how could I close my idea without mentioning our China which plays the main role over this global pandemic case. If you knew the more china in hurt or the escalation of spreading the virus rate and death counts then remember it will equally hurt Australia and Newzealand businesses as well so keep in that mind. Be sensitive over global risk news updates. This is all some beyond technical analysis thoughts from my side to this pair and if you find this idea valuable don't forget to support me with providing a thumps up! Peace :)
Short
by Anatta0
3
Austral Gold: Junior's Time to ShineLooking at Junior Gold as the next big market to trade, obviously due to rising gold and silver prices, but I like this company for a few reasons. Obviously being in South America the local currencies are trash (EM FX at record lows) so costs will likely remain low, especially if oil remains relatively cheap. Recently margins have begun to grow due to rising gold and I think there are companies like Austral that are in an interesting position because they are too small to be bought buy the large ETF's due to their purchase rules, yet they are unlocking significant value for shareholders. Currently the company is raising capital for drilling/exploration activities at their existing mines at $0.08 offering only to existing shareholders, so I don't think the dilution will really hit the market. I think this offers a trade opportunity with an interesting risk/reward profile. As long as this negative-interest bond madness continues we can expect gold to continue rallying higher, which means the margins at the miners will swell! ETF's can't touch these until they get bigger so the time to aquire shares is now before the gold market as a whole is revalued much higher than it is today. Highlights: - Existing Guanaco/Amancaya operations providing cashflow near Yamana Gold's El Penon deposits ( June 2019 AISC < $1000, gold at over $1500 currently) - Exploration potential in both Chile and Argentina (existing reserves assayed at $1300 Gold) - Rising silver prices while Casposo silver operation on-hold (reserves in ground gaining value) - Austral can produce lots of silver, meaning a big drop in the gold/silver ratio will leverage the margin expansion faster than gold producers alone. The company has some debt, which obviously poses a hurdle, but repayments are going well with the recent increased cashflow. Mineral reserves need to expand so expect drilling and associated costs, there is a deal offering to existing shareholders to fund drilling this year. Looking technically there have been 2 other historic buying opportunities at these levels, and the market seems to be close to a potential breakout of the falling wedge pattern. If you zoom in on the last year the stock has traded in a range and despite the thin volume there is a potential cup + handle formation holding just below the 0.09 level. I'm obviously bullish and have a long position. Please comment if you have any thoughts on AGD/AGLD. GLTA.
ASX:AGDLong
by UnknownUnicorn4409175
17
Australian Equities Unwind We're calling it. Australian Equities have now recovered losses stemming from the 2008 Subprime Crisis sell off and are now at ATHs supported by large corporate buybacks amidst moderate earnings growth. Our view - Weaker relative EPS on the back of domestic bushfires, lowered Chinese demand and corporate buyback continuity. - Lowe & Co running out of monetary stimulus and room to push asset prices higher. We see an unwind on any hawkish commentary out of the RBA. We see weak price momentum and signs that price is now overbought and due in for a positional correction. We have added sellside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios ------------------------- We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform. Like, subscribe and leave your comments below! Until next time, Portier Capital Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
ASX:XJOShort
by Portier
5
Higher high and low for AUDSGDJust a casual update on an earlier analysis posted: Presently biased towards bullish. AUD appears to have find support above the blue line -- previously acting resistance of the steeper downward channel since Dec 2018. The pink lines forms the gentler downward channel started since 2017, expected to act as resistance levels for AUD ahead against SGD. Expect AUD to be rejected at around 0.95-0.97 SGD to retest the support. If AUD is able to pierce above 0.97 SGD and finds support, a follow-up pump is expected perhaps to ~0.99 SGD at the 38.2% Fib level. If AUD is not able to find support at ~0.93 SGD, then expect a continuation of the descending channel (defined by the two blue lines), and expect price to go down and revisit 0.9 SGD.
Long
by cybernetwork