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Iron Ore Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Coiling like a Steel RollIron Ore Futures coiling like a steel roll in a series of Lower Highs & Higher Lows since October 2022. Break above 116.60 = Bullish momentum towards 134.85 (38.2% Fib Retracement) Break below 99.40 = Bearish momentum towards 77.60 (78.6% Fib Extension) Seasonality typically favours the Bulls running strong into end of year - we'll see if it still rings true this year, given China's current economic woes.. Boost/Follow appreciated. Futures: SGX:FEF1! SGX:FEF2! COMEX:TIO1! COMEX:TIO2! ASX: ASX:BHP ASX:RIO ASX:FMG ASX:MIN ASX:CIA NYSE: NYSE:VALE
SGX:FEF2!Long
by BlueHatInvestor
Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JULY 03, 2023Key News: USA - Independence Day - Early close at 13:00 UK - Manufacturing PMI (Jun) USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) Friday marked a momentous day on Wall Street as the three major indices experienced a robust surge, igniting a wave of optimism among investors. Notably, the Nasdaq, renowned for its focus on technology stocks, achieved an extraordinary feat by posting its largest first-half gain in the past 40 years. This remarkable milestone underscored the resiliency and strength of the technology sector, which has been a driving force behind the market's upward trajectory. Adding to the positive sentiment was the phenomenal achievement of tech giant Apple, as it soared to a market valuation of $3 trillion. This significant milestone was a testament to the company's enduring appeal and relentless pursuit of innovation. Not since January 2022 had Apple reached such heights, and this remarkable accomplishment further solidified its position as one of the most influential and valuable companies in the world. Apple's stock performance on Friday was nothing short of impressive. Closing at $193.97, it recorded a notable increase of 2.3%, with the stock even reaching a new all-time high of $194.48. This surge in Apple's stock price was fueled by a combination of factors, including the growing investor enthusiasm for growth stocks and the unwavering confidence in Apple's ability to conquer new markets. Investors' renewed faith in growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector, has been a driving force behind the recent market surge. The allure of exponential growth potential and groundbreaking innovations has captivated market participants, leading to increased allocations in companies like Apple. Moreover, Apple's unwavering commitment to excellence and its track record of success have bolstered investor confidence, making it an attractive choice for many. Apple's ability to penetrate and thrive in new markets has further fueled investor optimism. The company's forays into various sectors, such as healthcare, augmented reality, and autonomous vehicles, have been met with great anticipation. Investors believe that Apple's strong brand, vast resources, and exceptional product ecosystem position it favorably to succeed in these emerging industries. This confidence in Apple's long-term prospects has propelled its stock to new heights. As the market continues to evolve and navigate through various challenges, the impressive performance of the Nasdaq and Apple serves as a beacon of hope and optimism. Their achievements not only symbolize the resilience of the technology sector but also provide a glimmer of possibility for future growth and innovation. Investors are closely watching these developments, eager to capitalize on the momentum and potential opportunities that lie ahead in the ever-evolving world of technology. Apple stock daily chart On the last day of the second quarter, investors displayed a heightened level of interest, primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's closely observed indicators, which pointed to a moderation in US inflation. According to a report released by the Commerce Department, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed a 3.8% increase, lower than the 4.3% figure recorded in April. When excluding the volatile prices of food and energy, the core PCE index saw a growth of 0.3%, slightly lower than the previous month's 0.4% rise. BEA, US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index The release of this data has instilled optimism among investors, raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve's cycle of raising interest rates could be approaching its conclusion. The decrease in Treasury yields, which was triggered by the alleviation of inflationary pressures, has played a role in fostering this positive market sentiment. Burns McKinney, a portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group in Dallas, Texas, emphasized the impact of declining yields on the overall market conditions. In terms of performance, the Nasdaq index delivered its strongest first-half showing in four decades, delivering a remarkable gain of over 31%. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 index, comprising prominent technology stocks, achieved its highest first-half gain on record, surging by approximately 39%. On Friday, the S&P 500's growth index experienced a rise of 1.4%. Alongside Apple, other popular stocks favored by investors, including Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, significantly contributed to the positive performance of the S&P 500. These stocks registered gains ranging from 1.6% to 3.6%, capitalizing on their impressive rallies propelled by strong earnings and the increasing interest in artificial intelligence. S&P 500 indice daily chart NASDAQ indice daily chart As we embark on the first full week of July, there are several noteworthy events lined up on the economic calendar. One such event is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision, scheduled for Tuesday at 5:30 am GMT+1. This decision holds significant interest as market participants eagerly await to see whether the central bank will increase its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bp) to 4.35% or maintain the status quo. The RBA's rate decisions have been closely monitored, particularly due to the surprise 25bp rate hikes in the previous two meetings. The most recent monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data revealed a 5.6% increase in the twelve months leading up to May. Although this figure is lower than April's 6.8% and market expectations of 6.1%, it still plays a role in shaping the RBA's decision-making process. Additionally, strong employment data and uncertainties surrounding China's economic recovery have contributed to a 63% probability of the RBA keeping rates unchanged this week. Market participants will be closely watching the outcome of the RBA rate decision as it has the potential to impact not only the Australian economy but also global market sentiments. Australia interest rate In the United States, the upcoming releases of the ISM Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will draw considerable attention. The Services PMI has been indicating contractionary conditions for several months, and the release scheduled for Monday at 3:00 pm GMT+1 is expected to continue this trend. Forecasts suggest a range between 48.3 and 46.7 for the Services PMI. On Thursday at 3:00 pm GMT+1, the ISM Services PMI will be released, which has remained in expansionary territory but experienced a decline from 51.9 in April to 50.3 in May. The median expectation for June's release is 51.0. It is worth noting that the past three months have exhibited a range between 52.0 and 50.0 in the Services PMI readings. These PMI releases provide valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing and services sectors in the US. Market participants will be closely monitoring these indicators as they can influence market sentiment and provide indications of economic trends and business activity levels. US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) One of the most highly anticipated data releases in the United States this week will be related to the labor market indicators. On a day preceding the non-farm payroll report for June, both the ADP non-farm employment change and JOLTS job openings data will be published at 1:30 pm GMT+1. Market participants will closely watch these indicators as they provide crucial insights into the state of the labor market. They serve as important precursors to the official non-farm payroll report, which is scheduled for release on Friday. The median consensus among analysts is for an addition of 225,000 new payrolls in June, which marks a decrease from the robust figure of 339,000 recorded in May. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%, while average hourly earnings are projected to match the previous month's value of 0.3%. It is worth noting that a strong jobs report for June would increase the likelihood of a rate hike later in the month. These labor market indicators are closely monitored as they provide valuable insights into the overall health of the US economy, the pace of job creation, and potential wage growth. The data can significantly impact market sentiment and influence monetary policy decisions. US Unemployment rate In its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the Federal Funds target rate at its existing level. However, the committee signaled a hawkish stance, indicating a potentially more aggressive approach to monetary policy. This was reflected in the FOMC's dot plot, which outlines individual policymakers' projections for interest rates. Based on the dot plot from May, the FOMC projected two additional rate increases by the end of 2023. This suggests a tightening monetary policy in the near future. Market participants have taken note of this guidance, and as of now, they are pricing in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the next FOMC meeting scheduled for July 26. Following the anticipated rate hike in July, there is speculation that the FOMC may pause its tightening cycle and potentially even consider rate cuts in 2024. However, it's important to note that market expectations and projections can change based on incoming economic data and the evolving policy stance of the Federal Reserve. These market expectations regarding future rate movements are crucial for investors and can significantly impact various asset classes and market sentiment. Traders and market participants closely monitor such probabilities and projections to make informed decisions and position themselves accordingly in the financial markets.
by FOREXN1
10
Geopolitical tensions lend a tailwind to wheatThe geopolitics of wheat has once again come under the spotlight. Wheat prices jumped 4%1 as news broke out that a major dam Kakhovka in southern Ukraine had been destroyed. This is not the first mishap with the dam, as both Russia and Ukraine accused each other of planning sabotage back in October 2022. In Ukraine, flooding caused by the destroyed Kakhovka dam not only poses a risk to people, but also will be a major obstruction to agricultural transport and logistics. This casts further doubts on the recently lowered forecasts for Ukraine’s wheat production and exports owing to the destruction. The dam and reservoir situated on the Dnipro River is in the middle of Ukraine’s traditional main wheat growing area and is a major source of farm irrigation. No respite in Russia’s sabre-rattling There has been no respite in Russia’s sabre-rattling surrounding the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was extended last month for an additional two months. The initiative has been instrumental in allowing Ukrainian grain flows to the world by creating a safe transit corridor. Russia has repeatedly specified the re-opening of the ammonia pipeline as a condition for renewing the grain corridor deal through the Black Sea. However, the ammonia pipeline was damaged a day before the Kakhovka dam was destroyed. This increases the risk that Russia could after all follow through on its threat and revoke the grain deal as early as next month. Net speculative positioning in wheat indicates a level of peak bearishness Market participants were caught off-guard evident from the knee-jerk reaction of wheat prices, up 4%2, intraday following the news. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positioning in wheat futures was more than 2-standard deviations below the mean3, underscoring the extent of the bearish view held among investors. Dry weather to slash Australia’s next wheat crop by a third Another catalyst fuelling wheat prices higher was an early season estimate from Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science (ABARES) for a 34% slump in Australia’s wheat production in the coming season. The main reason cited by ABARES is the development of El Niño which is likely to suppress rainfall across large parts of Australia. Dry conditions and low soil moisture in the west and east coasts of Australia imply that much of the 2023-24 crop has been sown dry and will require adequate and timely rain to allow the plants to germinate. Wheat is a major winter crop in Australia with planting from April and the harvest starting in November. The expected onset of the El Niño conditions from July will likely see winter crop output fall significantly according to ABARES. According to the Bureau of Meteorology the dry weather has arrived, with the second driest May on record nationwide and the driest in Western Australia since observations began. Extreme weather conditions among top wheat suppliers to weigh on 2023/24 forecasts Across the globe, wild weather is affecting crops elsewhere, including Americas and North Africa. Europe is also being impacted by high temperatures and scant rainfall, increasing the risk of damage to the continent’s wheat crops. In France, the EU’s largest wheat producer, growing conditions in areas planted to wheat have deteriorated rapidly in recent weeks. The harvest in the largest wheat consumer China has also been affected by torrential rains, potentially boosting demand for wheat imports. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 6 June 2023 2 Bloomberg as of 6 June 2023 3 Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of 30 May 2023
N
by aneekaguptaWTE
AUDUSD Weekly Forecast CashRate | 4th June 2023Fundamental Backdrop RBA Gov Lowe mentioned "Very Much in Data-Dependent Mode on Interest Rates", "Monetary Policy in Restrictive Territory" This means that the RBA is closely monitoring economic data and could potentially continue increasing interest rates CPI y/y also increased from 6.3% to 6.8%, this shows inflation is still on a strong rise which can lead to an increase in interest rates. Cash Rate on Tuesday expected to maintain at 3.85% Technical Confluences Near-term resistance level at 0.66196 Next resistance at 0.67860 Near-term support level at 0.65220 Idea If the RBA chooses to maintain its cash rate at 3.85% on Tuesday, we could see the AUD drop towards the near-term support at 0.65220. However, if the unexpected occurs and the RBA chooses to increase its interest rates, we could see the price rise above the near-term resistance level at 0.66196, before heading towards the next resistance at 0.67860. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
1
AUDUSD SELL | CPI, RBA Gov Lowe speaks | 31st May 2023Fundamental Backdrop RBA Gov Lowe spoke today He mentioned "Very Much in Data-Dependent Mode on Interest Rates", " "Monetary Policy in Restrictive Territory" This means that the RBA is closely monitoring economic data and could potentially continue increasing interest rates CPI y/y also increased from 6.3% to 6.8%, this shows inflation is still on a strong rise which can lead to the increase in interest rates. Technical Confluences Near-term resistance level at 0.65100 Near-term support level at 0.64150 Idea Today's speech by RBA Gov Lowe indicates towards raising more interest rates in the future. Based on previous data whenever the RBA raises interest rates, the AUD rises a few days before it drops. We could see the AUD head towards the next support level at 0.64150 if interest rates are raised on 6th June. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
AUDUSD Weekly Forecast | 22nd May 2023Fundamental Backdrop The Wage Price Index q/q maintained at 0.8% which shows that the economy has not improved. Employment Change suffered significantly, dropping from 61.1k to -4.3k, which shows that consumer spending has been greatly reduced. Unemployment Rate also increased from 3.5% to 3.7%, showing that overall economic health has detoriated. Technical Confluences Near-term resistance at 0.66940 Near-term support at 0.66360 Major support at 0.65950 Idea This week with no major news events for AUD, we could see price continue bearish towards the major support at 0.65950. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
easyMarkets ASX 200 Daily - Quick Technical OverviewLooking at the technical picture of the Australian index ASX 200, we can see that from around the beginning of February, the index has been trading inside a falling wedge pattern, which could be classed as a bullish indication, especially if the upper side of that pattern gets violated. Today we saw that violation and the index made a strong move to the upside. In addition to all that, the price remains above a medium-term tentative upside support line taken from the low of October 3rd. Although the near-term outlook seems to be more positive then negative, we would still prefer to wait for another push above the 7260 barrier and the 50-day EMA, just to get a bit more comfortable with higher areas. Alternatively, to shift our view towards lower areas, a break of the aforementioned upside line and a drop below the 7110 territory would be required. Such a move would not only break the current medium-term trend but also would confirm a forthcoming lower low. That's when we would get comfortable with examining lower levels. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:ASXAUD
by easyMarkets
easyMarkets AUDUSD Daily - Quick Technical OverviewAUDUSD seems to be forming a possible falling wedge pattern, which, according to all the TA rules, tends to break to the upside. However, a confirmation break through the upper side of it is still needed, in order to get comfortable with a move towards higher areas. Until then, if the pair stays inside the pattern, it may continue sliding. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
by easyMarkets
easyMarkets ASX 200 (Australia) Daily - Quick Technical OverviewIn the short-run, ASX 200 may continue drifting lower, while trading within a falling wedge pattern. Although this pattern tends to be a bullish indication, as long as the boundaries of that barrier are respected, the slide may continue. But, don't forget that... Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:ASXAUD
by easyMarkets
easyMarkets ASX 200 Daily - Quick Technical OverviewDisclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:ASXAUD
by easyMarkets
AUD/JPY - Can the AUD outperform the JPY?COMMENTARY The AUD seems to be gaining the most against the JPY compared to the following G10 Fx pairs including the NZD, CAD, EUR, and the USD in front of tomorrow's Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) interest rate decision. High price action across the AUD cross pairs is expected upon tomorrow's RBA rate decision. Current price for the AUD/JPY is above its 40 day moving average (bullish), MACD above its signal line (bullish), rate of change 13 day above its signal line (bullish); upside potential for a retest of the 92.8s provided price can remain above the 89.9 support; downside risk on break below the 89.9 support could position short sellers to target the 87.90 area. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
by Skilling
1