ASX200 ForecastASX200 is currently correcting to its local support off the back of an overextended bullish move and collapsing stochastics.
The most probable event is we see price retest local support, before a pause for consolidation and then a break lower towards major support.
We expect major support to hold for long entry, provided the world macro environment stays stable, although we are cautious of slowing international growth.
The less likely event is we see equities bounce off local support and test for new highs. We see it as less likely given a slowing macroeconomic environment.
Australia
ASX 200 - In trouble After falls in the index in the last quarter of 2018, we have see a rally back into the sell zone(87.5% fib).
My target would be around the 5000 handle, which is nearthe 75% fib level on the monthly chart . This area is where the bulls should turn up,
as the index is in a very strong bullish trend on the monthly chart.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: USD AT KEY SUPPLY ZONEIn this video update, we take a look at the DXY to see how the USD is shaping up for the week ahead.
Last weeks close was significantly bullish with price closing back into the $97.50 resistance. The daily
chart shows price forming a bearish inside candle at the resistance and if we see any bearish pattern form here
on the lower timeframes we could see the USD fall back to re-test the $96.60 demand zone.
Our idea will be invalidated if price breaks the resistance and closes above $97.70.
Australia is going to collapse this monthHolllld up. There are HEAVY implications of increasing force in an area of high potential energy, while every period is weighted to the downside for net expansion. This is an incredibly bearish chart, as even short term mass is expanding at a faster rate than long term mass. I strongly believe we're going to see a snowball effect of increasing momentum to the downside.
If you have high potential energy with the force of a massive housing bubble looming on the horizon, what happens?
Dominos are going to start falling. The first one has already fallen and the chain reaction has begun, as defined by the wave PM cross on the daily chart (which signifies short term mass expanding over long term mass.)
i.imgur.com
Godspeed.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: WTI AND BRENT CRUDE OIL REMAIN BULLISHIn this video update, we take a look at the Oil markets and how they are shaping up for another push higher.
Brent crude offers a cleaner chart when comparing price action however they both show signs that
the market remains bullish despite the recent consolidation. Wait for a bullish daily close before
looking for continuation trades higher.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: USDCHF TRAPPED IN 1HR RANGEIn this video update, we take a look at the USDCHF as it enters the key supply zone around 1.0050.
Price is consolidating here on the 1hr chart and if we see a break lower and a close below 1.0030
sellers look likely to re-enter the market. NFP data Friday could reveal softer job numbers which
will likely push the USD lower in line with the current dovish Fed members.
VIDEO TRADE ANALYSIS: GOLD POTENTIAL MOVE TO $1304.00GOLD has been selling off of recent and looks to be running out of steam on the daily chart. The outlook right now for
GOLD looks extremely bearish due to price action on the monthly, weekly and daily charts. However, if we want to get short
on this market in-line with the trend, we need to see the market retrace back to a key resistance level. The previous structure lows
should act as resistance, in that case, we can potentially trade back to this on a lower timeframe. This is a contrarian set up and should be
traded with caution.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: AUDUSD AHEAD OF THE GDP ANNOUNCEMENTIn this video update, we take a look at the AUDUSD ahead of the GDP announcement. The RBA yesterday held interest rates, at 1.5%, this
was likely to happen as reports suggested investors will be eyeing up the GDP release for last quarter. This data could have an impact on the
RBA's decision to cut interest rates.
Technically we need to keep an eye on the key support zone around 0.7050 as this area will be key to giving us an insight into what may occur next.
If this zone holds as support, expect further upside. If we see a break and close below, look for further downside.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: USD TO IGNORE TRUMP CLAIMSIn this video update, we take a look at the USD and how it could be shaping up for the week ahead.
President Trump has claimed he wants to see a weaker USD so that he can form trade deals with countries,
however, the market could ignore this as price action is suggesting a move back into $97.50.
The monthly chart closed bullish which could suggest further upside to come for the greenback, with the weekly and
daily timeframes suggesting the same. The 4hr chart will give us the early clues if we are to see upside.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: GBPAUD TO 1.7400In this video update, we take a look at GBPAUD and how the market could be forming a corrective move
on the monthly chart with the price now back to key structure lows. If we see a bearish weekly rejection at
this level we could see significant downside to come as previously highlighted. If price breaks higher above the
1.8800 zone our trade idea becomes invalid.
ANALYSIS: AUDUSD REMAINS RANGE BOUND AUDUSD remains range bound this week as the currency pair gets pulled back and forth between good Chinese date and poor USD data to poor
Chinese data. The market needs some form of a catalyst to attract investors attention and with the Chinese economic slowdown hovering
like a dark cloud over the AUDUSD it could be difficult to see signs of significant change here. The big mover will be the AUD data if we
can see any upside to employment or housing prices the decision to cut rates will fade leading to the rise in prices.
VIDEO TRADE ANALYSIS: GOLD TRADE TRIGGEREDIn this video update, we take a look at the Gold trade we placed on our telegram channel last night and how it can potentially
find support from the $1315.00 minor support.
USD gained some strength after the GDP came out as forecast at 2.6% for the final quarter. This pushed the price of Gold into our
trigger point.
The game of Aud/UsdPrice movementIn
In yesterday's session price is returning near a key support zone. In fact, at 0.7144 we find the dynamic support identified by the EMA2O daily, while at 0.7108 is located the 76.8% of the Fibonacci retracement: this area should not yield but, because of the macroeconomic scenario that has been configured, it should bounce the price towards a target around the resistance identified by the EMA200 daily at 0.727; if it were broken upwards, the trend will continue until the next static resistance ( 0.733 )
Fed & Powell
The Fed, which will not raise rates in the very short term, and therefore with a softening of monetary policy, the dollar should continue to lose strength until Powell's signals of change arrive.
ANALYSIS: GOLDS KEY CORRELATION In this update, we take a look at the correlation between the price of Gold and Chinese Yuan.
Since the end of 2017, we have seen the correlation between the commodity and the currency pair grow stronger.
When the Chinese Yuan finds support and begins to impulse we see Gold do the same. When the Yuan finds resistance and
starts to move lower. The Yuan here looks to have slightly more room to the upside before finding resistance and we should
expect Gold to test $1350 before seeing any definitive downside as this is such an important zone for the commodity.
Keep a close eye on the correlation as it has proven to be effective over the past year.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: CAN USDJPY REACH 114.00 AGAIN?!In this video update, we take a look at USDJPY on the monthly chart as we approach month end.
Price is currently printing a bullish candle after finding support off 105.30. The daily chart
is forming an uptrend and price is currently consolidating, if we see a break above the consolidation
we can look for prices to continue higher.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: DXY FINDING SUPPORTIn this video update, we take a look at the USD currency index (DXY) and how the price is finding support
at the key $96.00 level with 38.2 Fibonacci confluence. If the daily chart finishes bullish here we could expect upside
to continue with expectations of the major currency pairs being affected.
VIDEO TRADE: USDSGD FORMS INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERSIn this video update, we take a look at USDSGD and how the trade posted in our telegram is progressing.
If the daily chart closes higher we can look for short term trades going forward on the 1hr chart.
Wait for the daily close to look for pullbacks on to structure highs.
ANALYSIS: EURGBP ATTACKING LOWS AGAINEURGBP has spiked through the lows today as the GBP continues to gain strength off the back of Governor
Carneys comments that the data shows continual growth with the potential to hike interest rates. How sustainable
that is will remain to be seen as PM May sets upon delaying the exit from the EU. Technically we will need the weekly chart to close below the supporting zone before looking for the opportunity to short the market.
ANALYSIS: NZDUSD FLAG PATTERN TO 0.7000NZDUSD on the 4hr timeframe shows price impulsing from the 0.6770 in line with the weekly timeframe.
Price now seems to be forming a small correction with the potential to breakout and head towards the 0.7000 key zone.
As you can see the 4hr chart candles are small in range which suggests sellers aren't involved in this market and price is accumulating before a move higher. Look for the breakout here.
TRADE: USDCAD TO 1.3080We have been looking for short opportunities on USDCAD for a while now and our previous trade from the video analysis previously hit targets. The market is now lining up for a potential move lower again working within this weekly channel. Price on the weekly chart suggests we could see further downside back into the key support of 1.3080. Look for a bearish reversal signal here as we do expect the DXY to drop to $96.00.