Australian
Why the RBA should cut rates todayThe Reserve Bank of Australia should cut rates today, argues James Glynn in the Wall Street Journal .
Markets, however, expect the central bank to wait until May for its next move. RBA Governor Michele Bullock remains cautious, citing lingering inflation.
But Glynn contends that global uncertainty now outweighs the RBA’s desire to wait for marginal improvements in inflation data. That uncertainty is set to escalate this Wednesday, with the Trump administration announcing sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners—likely triggering retaliatory measures.
Andrew Boak, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Australia, appears to support Glynn’s view: “There are costs to waiting until May to cut. Waiting is not always a virtue.”
Is Glynn simply chasing a contrarian headline or is there actually a possibility the RBA could act today?
AUDUSD - 4H Why we need to Buy?!The FX:AUDUSD has shown strong bullish momentum after hunting liquidity below the 2022 low on the daily and weekly timeframes.
✅ Breakout & Retest: The pair successfully broke the descending channel's resistance and is now pulling back to the breakout zone, confirming its strength.
✅ Higher High Formation: A higher high structure supports the bullish bias, indicating potential continuation towards previous highs and beyond.
📌 I expect another bullish push from this key support zone.
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AUD/USD: Potential Fakeout Warning
On the 1-hour timeframe, we’ve broken out of the blue resistance trendline, but caution is advised. The price may face rejection at the red resistance zone, where sellers remain active.
Waiting for confirmation before opening a short position from this zone is a safer approach. Watch this level closely for clearer signals. 🎯
AU Index Rallies from Demand Area as Bullish Sentiment GrowsThe AU Index experienced a significant development yesterday as it reached a key demand area, showing a strong rejection today that indicates potential bullish momentum. This demand zone, identified through technical analysis, has historically served as a pivotal point for price action, suggesting an opportunity for a price turnaround. With the opening candle reflecting a robust rejection of lower levels, traders are increasingly optimistic about the possibility of a bullish trend emerging in the coming months.
From a technical standpoint, this demand area presents a solid foundation for potential upward movement. The absence of follow-through selling and the strength of the rejection signal that buyers are stepping in to support the price. When coupled with historical seasonality patterns, which indicate a likelihood of gains during this period, there is a compelling case for a bullish outlook on the AU Index. Historical trends suggest that this time frame has often led to price rallies, providing further confirmation for those considering long positions.
On the fundamental side, the insights from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report paint an interesting picture. While retail traders are predominantly bearish, indicating a cautious sentiment among the broader market participants, the smart money narrative tells a different story. Institutional investors appear to be either bullish or in the early stages of building long positions, which can be a telling signal for future price action. This divergence between retail bearishness and institutional buying often creates an environment ripe for a market reversal, particularly as the smart money tends to lead rather than follow market trends.
Given these dynamics, traders are now on the lookout for a long setup on the AU Index. Emphasizing risk management and entry strategies will be essential in this endeavor. With the price showing resilience at the demand area and fundamental signals suggesting a shift towards bullishness, there is a growing confidence that the AU Index may be poised for a sustained rally.
In conclusion, the confluence of technical indicators, seasonal patterns, and the contrasting sentiments present in the COT report presents an enticing opportunity in the AU Index. As traders position themselves for potential gains, the next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether this demand area will indeed act as a launchpad for a bullish trend in the months ahead. Investors will be closely monitoring price movements, looking for confirmation to validate their long strategies in what could be an exciting period for this index.
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Analyzing the AUD/USD pair on the 1-hour timeframethe AUD/USD pair on the 1-hour timeframe, the pair is currently in a downtrend but has not yet reached the green support zone. If the price returns to this zone, it could attract buyers, potentially pushing the price upward. This scenario may present a long opportunity, provided there's a confirmation signal before entry.
Key Points:
Current Trend: Downward movement towards support.
Support Zone: Identified in green on the chart.
Potential Action: Look for bullish confirmation signals upon price reaching the support zone before considering a long position.
Always ensure proper risk management and wait for clear confirmation before entering a trade.
AUDUSD - 4H Sell opportunityKeep your eye on this trendline. AUDUSD has experienced a three-leg rise, forming an ascending trendline.
A break of this trendline could be a good sign for sellers to achieve significant gains, potentially pushing the price down to the last pivot support zone.
Watch for confirmation of this break to identify potential entry points for short positions.
AUD/USD Gains Positive Momentum Amid Global Market DynamicsAUD/USD Gains Positive Momentum Amid Global Market Dynamics
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is riding a wave of positive momentum during Friday's European session, extending its bullish trend from earlier in the week. A brighter sentiment in European markets and some profit-taking after a robust US dollar rally are contributing to the Aussie's upward trajectory.
Technical Analysis:
The price action tells an encouraging story, bouncing off the 0.6525 support zone, strategically located at the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. This rebound, in conjunction with the Dynamic trendline, has propelled the price above the 200-day moving average. Adding to the bullish outlook, the Stochastic indicator is poised to exit the oversold condition. These combined indicators present favorable signals for a potential new bullish impulse, suggesting an upward movement in the price.
US Data Influence:
Recent data from the United States has lent support to the USD, with jobless claims declining against expectations last week. This supports the narrative of a resilient US economy, challenging the earlier market sentiment that had priced in rate cut expectations in December. The USD's strength is a crucial factor influencing global currency movements, including the AUD.
China's Economic Struggles:
On the flip side, data from China has added a layer of complexity to the global economic landscape. The fourth quarter's GDP and Retail Sales figures fell below expectations, underscoring challenges in the world's second-largest economy. This has left investors eager for more robust stimulus measures and heightened negative pressure on the Australia-proxy AUD.
Outlook and Targets:
In light of the technical indicators and the broader market dynamics, we anticipate a bullish continuation for the Australian Dollar. Our targets are set at 0.6700 and above, reflecting our optimism for sustained upward movement. However, market participants should remain vigilant, considering the ever-changing global economic landscape, and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Conclusion:
The Australian Dollar's positive momentum is a testament to the intricate interplay of global market dynamics. Technical indicators align with the bullish sentiment, while factors like USD resilience and China's economic struggles add layers of complexity. As the AUD charts a path towards higher levels, traders should stay adaptable and closely monitor evolving economic indicators for a comprehensive understanding of the currency's trajectory.
Our preference
Long positions above 0.64 with targets at 0.68 & 0.69 in extension.
Breakdown example - LH and LL ..ASX:S32
The chart for ASX:S32 shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
This information is essential for investing and trading.
It is advisable to avoid focusing on this stock and instead focus on other options.
This will save you time and give you peace of mind.
#investing #avoid #trading #pwinvest $ASX:S32X:S32
SHORT ON AUD/NZDPrice has formed a Major Rising Wedge (bearish reversal pattern) on the 4hr tf.
Price is also at a Major resistance zone with Bearish divergence on the RSI.
I expect price to do some sort of a stop hunt taking out the previous high before falling.
Here is the play I will be taking:
(SELL STOP ORDER)
Entry - 1.07546
Stop Loss - 1.08118 - 57.2 pips
Take Profit - 1.03486 - 406 pips
*** This is a SWING trade! ***