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AUD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA surprised this past week with a 25bsp hike, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than expected (STIR markets priced out close to 75bsp from the terminal rate after the decision). As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the AUD, and that means US CPI and the start of Q3 earnings season (both catalysts that can trigger decent reactions in risk sentiment) needs to be kept on the radar this incoming week. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the AUD. The RBA caught markets by surprise with their 25bsp hike this past week. Any push back from the RBA stressing a smaller hike doesn’t mean a lower terminal rate can be AUD positive. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the AUD. The RBA caught markets by surprise with their 25bsp hike this past week. Any push back from the RBA stressing a smaller hike doesn’t mean a lower terminal rate can be AUD positive. BIGGER PICTURE The AUD’s outlook remains neutral but is largely dependent on China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their bleeding. Until the covid situation and property issues in China improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. The week ahead is very light on the calendar front for the AUD, which means overall risk sentiment will be the biggest focus (US CPI and Q3 Earnings Season the catalysts to watch). USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). It was a choppy week for the USD, with entertaining ‘Fed Pivot’ narratives trying to make sense of the price action. In the week ahead, all eyes turns to the week’s main event which is Thursday’s September US CPI report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a higher than 5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. In the upcoming week markets will only have eyes for one data point and that will be the US September CPI data released on Thursday. With expectations of a higher Core CPI YY but expectations of a lower Headline CPI YY it seems risky to trade into this event.
by thunderpips
2
AUDJPY: Trading Plan For Today 🇦🇺🇯🇵 AUDJPY is coiling around a key resistance. The price formed a head and shoulders pattern on 1H time frame. To short with a confirmation, wait for 1H candle close below 92.0 level - its horizontal neckline and a minor rising trend line. Then a bearish continuation will be expected to 91.55 If the price sets a new high, the setup will be invalid. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
5
GBPAUD: Your Trading Plan 🇬🇧🇦🇺 GBPAUD is trading on a key daily structure support. To catch a bullish continuation from that, watch an inverted head and shoulders pattern on 1H time frame. 1.744 - 1.7465 is its neckline. To buy with a confirmation, wait for its bullish breakout (hourly candle close above that), then buy aggressively or on a retest. Targets will be 1.755 / 1.7626 If the price sets a new low, the setup will become invalid. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
4
$AUDUSD | Nice Bounce Upcoming?Simple idea here: AUDUSD breaking below lower Bollinger Band with several following candles showing slowed down trend. If we close the current (circled) candle successfully fully above the bottom band, simple is expected. Next resistance lines are noted (drawn off the daily with at least two touched) with the Stop Loss & Take Profit also highlighted. Easily can clear this but have to take in account 20 MA and also that the RSI is not at extreme levels so not expecting a huge move.
Long
by CryptoHotep
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, BITCOIN Hey traders, here is a brief technical outlook of 4 peculiar instruments on my watch list. 1️⃣ EURUSD - 3 days time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸 The pair is trading in long-term bearish trend. Lower highs and lower lows are perfectly respecting the boundaries of a major falling parallel channel. The price is closer and closer to its resistance. I believe that a strong bearish wave will initiate soon. 2️⃣ USDCAD - Daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇦 The market successfully broke and closed below a neckline of a double top pattern. Retesting that, we see a positive bearish reaction. I think that the pair will drop soon. Wait for a confirmation to sell on lower time frames. 3️⃣ AUDUSD - 12H time frame 🇦🇺🇺🇸 I see signs of a bullish accumulation: the pair formed an ascending triangle formation. If the price breaks and closes above its resistance, I believe that the market will bounce. 4️⃣ Bitcoin - 3 days time frame ₿ The market is approaching a major falling trend line. If the price breaks and closes above that, the market will go much higher. Being respected, however, BTC will drop. If you are bearish, wait for a confirmation now to sell. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
5
💵Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar 💵Analyze (10/05/2022)!!!Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar succeeded in making Bullish a 🦇Bat🦇 Harmonic Pattern near the trend line. I expect the Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar will go UP at least to the resistance zone. 🔅Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar ( AUDNZD) Timeframe 4H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
2
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsAUD – The Australian dollar lost ground on Tuesday, having rallied sharply overnight, after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a smaller-than expected rate hike, even as central banks elsewhere are raising rates aggressively. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia, which had predicted the 25 basis points move, expects the central bank to hike by another 25 bps in November before pausing. They note: “From that point, our central scenario has the RBA on hold as they give themselves time to assess the lagged impact of rate rises on the Australian economy.”
by thunderpips
2
EURAUD: Important Breakout 🇪🇺🇦🇺 So it turned out that EURAUD broke and closed above 1.49 - 1.498 resistance cluster. The broken structure turned into a demand zone. The closest resistance that I see now is 1.53 - 1.54 zone. I believe that it will be the next goal for buyers. For entries, consider an occasional retest of a broken structure. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
2
AUD/CAD 700 Pips Bargain: AUSSIE's Plight Deteriorates FurtherFundamentals : The China Factor : Australia's economy is intimately linked to trade with China. (1) China's lack of demand for iron ore as their economy undergoes a recession. " Disaster looming in Australian economy as iron ore demand falls " (Daily Telegraph: www.dailytelegraph.com.au ) www.imf.org fred.stlouisfed.org markets.businessinsider.com (2) Deterioration of China's economy due to a zero-covid strategy (3) China's property sector is cooling (4) Aussie's Housing data becomes " haunting ": stockhead.com.au Technicals : Past support becoming future resistance Weekly BBT Monthly BBT Hit Bollinger Band 2nd Deviation in a slightly ranging market with a downward slope Medium-term trend direction is downward dHd
Short
by Rocketman
AUDCHF Strongest buy opportunity of 2022------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The AUDCHF pair is approaching the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern that it has been trading in since the February 25 2021 High. Last time it did was on December 03 2021. At the same time, the 1W RSI hit its 1 year Support Zone, where it is close to doing so again today. On a long-term horizon, this is the most optimal buy entry. We can target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the short-term (as it happened on Jan 10 2022) and the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down, if we close a candle above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
2
💵Euro/Australian Dollar💵Analyze (9/22/2022)!!! Euro/Australian Dollar reacts well to the resistance line and has failed to make a new high every time it has hit this line. I expect the trend line to break and Euro/Australian Dollar to decline to the support zone. 🔅Euro/Australian Dollar Analyze ( EURAUD ) Timeframe 1H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
2
EURAUD Recurring Channel Up hints to buying the pull-backThe EURAUD pair recently broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and came just one step before testing the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which caused (on July 01) the last major rejection. We can see the possibility of a Channel Up emerging, in the same formation as those of November - December 2021 and March - May 2021. Notice the similarities on the 1D RSI sequences. As long as the 1D MA200 is unbroken, it would be best to buy any pull-back that occurs below the 1D MA50and target, initially, the 1D MA200. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoyed this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant and support me and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
2
GBPAUD Buy opportunity and reversal levelsThe GBPAUD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since March 15. At the moment the price is on the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the pattern, below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1D RSI on the 30.000 oversold level. That should be considered a short-term opportunity by itself towards the top of the Channel. But even from a longer-term perspective, the last time we had those exact same set of parameters take place was during the Channel Down that started on June 2020. As you see that pattern also made a -6% Lower Low from its last High and once the 1D RSI hit the 30.000 oversold level, the price rebounded, gradually above the 1D MA50 and then the 1D MA200 to break above the Channel and eventually make a top on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. As a result, as long as the current Channel Down is intact, we expect a new multi-month rally towards the 1.5 Fib which is at 1.85500. Since the bearish trend is that strong, especially today, it would be best to take that trade upon confirmation, after the price closes above the 1D MA50. Confirmation is needed because in the event of a break below the Channel's bottom (Lower Lows trend-line), we can see the price target the -0.382 Fibonacci extension at 1.613520. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoyed this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant and support me and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
3
AUDNZD Testing Resistance. How to trade a breakout or rejection.The AUDNZD pair has been on a strong structured uptrend since September 16 2021 market low, within a long-term Channel Up. Recently, the pattern turned into a Bullish Megaphone according to the 1W RSI and MACD indicators, much like the one that started on January 2021. The price is currently testing the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Megaphone. A break above it, should target the top of the Channel Up and complete the +4.70% rise that has been done the two times that the pair rebounded on the Channel's bottom. A rejection either now or at the top of the Channel Up should be bearish medium-term, targeting at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A break below the Channel Up, establishes the Megaphone as the dominant pattern, and should test its bottom, along with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoyed this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant and support me and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
AUDCAD Still bearish unless this level breaksThe AUDCAD pair is following our trading plan to the point since our last analysis (August 12), which was a sell signal following the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) rejection: As you see nothing has changed, the price got emphatically rejected on the 1D MA200 and entered a Channel Down that has already hit our first target (0.89120). There is no diversion yet and as long as the Channel holds (especially the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line)), it could target on the medium-term the 1 year Lower Lows trend-line. This pattern is invalidated only if the 1W RSI Symmetrical Resistance Zone breaks, or the price breaks above the 1D MA200, in which case we will take it as a buy signal, targeting the 1W MA300, which had the April 05 rejection. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot