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EUR AUD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Persistently high inflation has seen the ECB tilt more hawkish by hiking rates 50bsp in July. Additional pressure on inflation from gas supply shortages and drought-linked supply constraints has seen ECB members get more uneasy about price pressures, with comments last week suggesting that there is growing support for a 75bsp hike in September. This saw some initial upside in the EUR, but it’s important to remember that the bank quelled hawkish excitement at the July meeting by saying that frontloading hikes are not a signal of a higher terminal rate. Until that changes, higher rate expectations are likely only going to have short-lived upside potential for the Euro . Spread fragmentation, even though largely moving into the background, is still a concern, with the ECB failing to ease the market’s spread concerns with their new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) as the eligibility criteria means countries like Italy and Spain that will need the support the most might have a tough time qualifying. Even though policy is important, the main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook. Recent growth data has continued to flag recession risks and as energy concerns increase so too does the likelihood of stagflation. Even though the bias remains lower, a lot of negatives have been priced in from a tactical point of view so worth keeping that in mind. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine would open up a lot of EUR upside. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Spread fragmentation remains a concern, thus, any TPI comments that convinces markets it can solve fragmentation issues should be supportive for the EUR. Energy supply is a problem. If Russia does re-opens gas flows after the planned shutdown it should ease some pressure. Any good news on Rhine water levels and resumption of normal transport could be a bullish catalyst for the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Any escalation in the Ukraine war that risks including NATO would be big negative risks. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. Spread fragmentation remains in focus, and if the ECB fails to act when we see big jolts higher in the BTP/ Bund spread could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Energy supply is a problem. If Russia does not re-open gas flows after the planned shutdown it should add downside risks. Any bad news on Rhine water levels and continued breakdown in transportation could be a bearish catalyst for the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent leading indicators pointing to a much faster economic slowdown than markets previously expected. The current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply concerns) far outweigh the positives from a hawkish ECB. Recession risks have opened up a narrative change for the EUR which have seen markets adjust forecasts to reflect higher recession probabilities which has continued to weigh on the EUR. With lots of bad news priced in there is risks in chasing the EUR lower, but the fundamental outlook remains bleak. AUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD gave back most of its 1Q22 gains throughout 2Q22 due to China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While other major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China was expected to grow (with monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative), but we are yet to see the new additional stimulus measures spill over into the soft and hard data. The expected recover, if it happens, remains a key consideration for the AUD. Our view in 1Q22 was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but the market proved us wrong on that assumption. The RBA stuck to a higher pace of tightening with a 50bsp hike in August, but it wasn’t enough to provide the AUD with upside as the bank mentioned their policy is not on a pre-determined path and also expressed growing concerns about consumers. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we maintain a neutral bias for the AUD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary support, or stopping their covid-zero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish comments or overly bullish CPI, or wage data could trigger some bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD and remains a course of concern. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, but concerns about consumers & growth means any overly dovish comments could trigger some bearish reactions. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China, whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding, and how long China struggles to recover their previously expected growth trajectory. Until the covid situation improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades in line with strong short-term sentiment. Also keep in mind that the AUD is currently the most stretched among the other majors versus the US Dollar, so AUDUSD could be considered on any decent positive catalyst.
by thunderpips
1
AUDNZD: Important Structure Breakout 🇦🇺🇳🇿 Important thing happened this night on AUDNZD pair: the price broke and closed above a wide daily supply area. The broken structure turned into a support now. The next goal for buyers is the narrow area around 1.128 level. It is based on a key monthly structure and 5 years' high. I will be patiently waiting for an occasional retest of the broken structure to buy AUDNZD. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
5
AUDCHF On the verge of a break-outThe AUDCHF pair seems to be repeating the October 2021 - January 2022 fractal both on candle and RSI terms on the 1D time-frame (both recording a -7.50% decline). The price has been closing below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since June 15. A break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) would be a bullish break-out signal, targeting the Lower Highs trend-line and (under conditions that we will analyze when the time comes), the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, a break below 0.6500 (just below the July 01 low), would be a bearish break-out signal towards the 2.0 Fib lower extension (0.63000). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
AUD NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD has struggled in the midst of underlying negative risk sentiment, China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While all major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China is expected to recover (monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative). The expected recovery has been a key focus for our previous bullish AUD bias, which worked out well until a few weeks ago. Our view was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but price action has proven us wrong on that assumption, with Iron Ore dropping close to 30% from the mid-June. The RBA stuck to a higher pace of tightening with a 50bsp hike on in August, but it wasn’t enough to provide the AUD with upside as the bank mentioned their policy is not on a pre-determined path and also expressed growing concerns about consumers. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we have a neutral bias for the AUD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish triggers from their meeting this week could trigger some bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. Despite CPI >6% we’ve recently heard typical stubbornly hesitant comments pushing back against aggressive tightening implied by STIRs. Thus, any overly dovish comments from the bank this week or simply failing to surprise with a bigger hike than what is priced can trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding. Until the covid situation improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term tradesin line with strong short-term sentiment. NZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite the RBNZ being one of the most hawkish central banks from 2021, it hasn’t been enough to provide any meaningful trending support for the NZD. The cyclical concerns for the global economy, alongside concerns from China regarding their struggles with their covid-zero policy as well as recent big falls in commodity prices has kept the NZD pressured. Even though the RBNZ is expecting to keep their hiking cycle intact as they proved at their July meeting, some mild economic concerns have been starting to show up in the recent data, something they alluded to in their statement as well by noting medterm downside risks for the economy. Recent data such as consumer and business confidence has confirmed this view. Furthermore, a big focus for the RBNZ’s aggressive policy (apart from high inflation of course) has been to try and calm down a very hot housing market, and even though the fall is small we have seen YY house prices cool starting to cool down. These developments on the growth side are not expected to stop the RBNZ’s hiking cycle just yet, but some market participants are expecting a more dovish tone reflecting these concerns and a push back in hike expectations in the months ahead, with some calling for a possible dovish shift potentially as soon as the August meeting coming up next week. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Tactical positioning looksstretched, and trading at these levels it increases possibility of some mean reversion or position squaring which could trigger some upside in the NZD. Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. With calls for the bank to potentially tilt more dovish, any outsized hike (75bsp) or aggressive push back against those expectations could offer some NZD upside. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in commodity markets (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears; lower growth concerns) should be supportive for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish RBNZ expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation) could trigger downside for the NZD. Watch out for a lowering in OCR expectations at the upcoming meeting as some participants think the bank will announce a slow dovish pivot in the next few meetings. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in commodity markets (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, further growth concerns) could weigh on the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the RBNZ’s current outlook, we would favour short-term opportunities in the NZD in line with short-term sentiment.
by thunderpips
1
EURAUD Bearish towards 1.40 but watch the 1D MA50The EURAUD pair has been following our long-term perspective as illustrated more than a month ago: As you see, the rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) caused a strong sell sequence that came too close to testing the 1.4325 Support (April 05 Low). We remain well below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) with the RSI on Lower Highs. Within the multi-year Bearish Megaphone pattern that the pair has been trading in, there have been another two similar RSI patterns. The more recent (Oct - Nov 2021) managed to break above the 1D MA50 and reached almost its previous High/ Resistance. The older one (Jan 2021) got rejected on the 1D MA50 and reached as low as the 2.236 Fibonacci extension before rebounding. As a result, if you took our short suggested 1 month ago, you may take the profit and re-open it if last week's Low breaks and target at least the 2.236 Fib (1.400). If on the other hand the price closes above the 1D MA50, open a buy and target 1.5350. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
GBPAUD Strong buy on a monthly basisThe GBPAUD pair has started the week on a strong note, with the current 1W candle being the longest green (so far) since September 21 2020. That shows incredible buying sentiment especially following a 1W MACD Bullish Cross and the 1W RSI being on Higher Lows since April 04 2022. When the price is on Lower Lows, as is the case now, this is a Bullish Divergence potentially indicating a trend shift upwards. We saw the very same set of parameters align back in the July - December 2020 sequence. After a Support re-test, the price started a strong long-term uptrend above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. If you are on this for the long-term, there are few better levels to buy and target the 1.5 Fib at 1.8340. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
AUDNZD Best short of the year!The AUDNZD pair is trading within a Channel Up since the start of May but has most likely peaked based on this unique pattern going back 8 years. The chart is on the 1W time-frame where the MACD is trading downwards after a late June Bearish Cross. As you see, every such Bearish Cross above the 0.0 MACD level, formed a long-term Top on either a Channel Up or Down pattern since 2014. All the downtrends that followed this peak formation were sharp sell-offs that dropped to at least the 1.0500 level (symmetrical Support) even though most reached a lot lower. As a result since we are still inside the Channel Up pattern, this could be the best place for a sell position this year. You can use three target levels: the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) short-term, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) medium-term and the 1.0500 Symmetrical Support for the long-term. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
3
EURAUD: Very Bearish Outlook 🇪🇺 🇦🇺 Hey traders, Last week was very important for EURAUD pair: the price broke below a rising trend line and then closed below a key horizontal support. Even though the market is recovering now, I expect a bearish move from the confluence zone based on a trend line and a horizontal structure. Next goal - 1.435 ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
6
AUDCAD Important 1D MA200 test. Low risk trades around it.The AUDCAD pair has been on a strong rise since the July 13 Low on the 1 year Lower Lows zone. That was a buy signal that we posted exactly a month ago: The rebound has now reached the critical 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the Resistance in the past 3 months. The last Lower Low on January 28 2022, had a rally that did break above the 1D MA200 and only stopped (and got rejected) on the 1W MA300 (red trend-line). With the 1W RSI being on a rebound following its contact with its long-term Buy Zone, this is quite likely to happen again. As a result, a low risk trading approach right now is to buy only if we close above the 1D MA200 and target just before the price hits the 1W MA300. Until the break-out happens, we can take a short-term sell, targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
AUDJPY Low risk tradesThe AUDJPY pair has been trading within a bullish Channel for more than a year and is currently on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI Lower Highs sequence prompts to the similar structure of November 2021 - February 2022, which made the pair break upwards when the RSI Lower Highs broke eventually. As a result, a similar RSI break-out should be enough to target the top of the bullish Channel around 99.000. However since the June 08 top, we see a shorter-term Channel Down forming with clear Lower Highs and Lower Lows. With the price that close to the Lower Highs, it offers excellent Risk/ Reward ratios both on the upside break-out and the rejection, which should target the Lower Lows trend-line above (or near) the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1