Get started

Australiandollar

AUD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD has struggled in the midst of underlying negative risk sentiment, China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While all major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China is expected to recover (monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative). The expected recovery has been a key focus for our previous bullish AUD bias, which worked out well until a few weeks ago. Our view was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but price action has proven us wrong on that assumption, with Iron Ore dropping close to 30% from the mid-June. The RBA stuck to a higher pace of tightening with a 50bsp hike on in August, but it wasn’t enough to provide the AUD with upside as the bank mentioned their policy is not on a pre-determined path and also expressed growing concerns about consumers. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we have a neutral biasfor the AUD. The only reason why we haven’t shifted to bearish is because some of the recent data out of China has been better than expected, thus there are still upside risks for the currency if things like Iron Ore can put in a base and show some recovery. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish triggers from their meeting this week could trigger some bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. Despite CPI >6% we’ve recently heard typical stubbornly hesitant comments pushing back against aggressive tightening implied by STIRs. Thus, any overly dovish comments from the bank this week or simply failing to surprise with a bigger hike than what is priced can trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding. Until the covid situation improves materially, and until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD is best suited for short-term trades. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation. The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially CPI on Wednesday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank, we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
AUDUSD short-term buyThe AUDUSD pair broke last week above its long-term Falling Wedge pattern and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and has been consolidating ever since. With the 1D RSI on Higher Lows since May 02, which has been a Bullish Divergence, it is more likely that the rise will be resumed towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which has been the Resistance since April 22. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
3
AUD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD has struggled in the midst of underlying negative risk sentiment, China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While all major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China is expected to recover (monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative). The expected recovery has been a key focus for our previous bullish AUD bias, which worked out well until a few weeks ago. Our view was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but price action has proven us wrong on that assumption, with Iron Ore dropping close to 30% from the mid-June. The RBA which finally started their hiking cycle has also failed to provide much support for the AUD, with recent comments suggesting the bank isn’t ready to confirm the aggressive number of hikes that STIR markets have already priced in. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we are moving our bias to neutral for the AUD. The only reason why we haven’t shifted to bearish is because the recent data out of China has been better than expected, and still poses upside risks for the currency if things like Iron Ore can put in a base and show some recovery. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly hawkish triggers from their meeting this week could trigger some bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. Despite CPI >6% we’ve recently heard typical stubbornly hesitant comments pushing back against aggressive tightening implied by STIRs. Thus, any overly dovish comments from the bank this week or simply failing to surprise with a bigger hike than what is priced can trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding. Until the covid situation improves materially, until commodities and China’s growth stabilizes, the AUD might struggle to maintain upside momentum. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation. The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially CPI on Wednesday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. Last week the SNB fired a warning shot for Wednesday’s CPI by saying they can take policy decisions at any time between regular meeting dates, so there is a risk that a big upside surprise in CPI on Wednesday triggers an inter-meeting hike. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. Last week the SNB fired a warning shot for CPI by saying they can take policy decisions at any time between regular meeting dates, and the CHF strengthened across the board on those comments. If CPI beats big this week but the SNB does not act it could show weakness and pressure the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank, we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
2
AUD NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSAUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite a decent recovery from the start of the year, the AUD has struggled in the midst of underlying negative risk sentiment, China’s continued struggles with Covid breakouts, and more recently the big slump in key commodities (Iron Ore & Coal). China’s economy is always a key focus for the AUD. While all major economies are expected to slow in 2022, China is expected to recover (monetary and fiscal policy very stimulative). The expected recovery has been a key focus for our previous bullish AUD bias, which worked out well until a few weeks ago. Our view was that China’s expected recovery would be enough to keep commodities like Iron Ore supported even while other commodities push lower on global demand concerns, but price action has proven us wrong on that assumption, with Iron Ore dropping close to 30% from the mid-June. The RBA which finally started their hiking cycle has also failed to provide much support for the AUD, with recent comments suggesting the bank isn’t ready to confirm the aggressive number of hikes that STIR markets have already priced in. While Iron Ore prices stays pressured and covid lockdowns in China persists, we are moving our bias to neutral for the AUD. The only reason why we haven’t shifted to bearish is because the recent data out of China has been better than expected, and still poses upside risks for the currency if things like Iron Ore can put in a base and show some recovery. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in Australia’s key commodity exports (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears) should be supportive for the AUD. With the RBA just getting started with their hiking cycle, there is scope for them to turn more aggressive, which means any overly triggers (CPI this week) or hawkish comments or actions from them could trigger some bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding new ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. As a risk sensitive currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in Australia’s key commodity exports (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, and additional news on recent centralized iron ore buyers) could be negative for the AUD. Despite CPI >5% we’ve recently heard typical stubbornly hesitant comments pushing back against aggressive tightening implied by STIRs. Thus, any overly dovish comments or potential data triggers (CPI this week) can trigger bearish reactions in the AUD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the AUD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China and whether key commodities like Iron Ore and Coal can stop their recent bleeding. Until the covid situation improves materially and until commodities stabilize, the AUD might struggle to maintain upside momentum. NZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Despite the RBNZ being one of the most hawkish central banks from 2021, it hasn’t been enough to provide any meaningful trending support for the NZD. The cyclical concerns for the global economy, alongside concerns from China regarding their struggles with their covid-zero policy as well as recent big falls in commodity prices has kept the NZD pressured. Even though the RBNZ is expecting to keep their hiking cycle intact as they proved at their July meeting, some mild economic concerns have been starting to show up in the recent data, something they alluded to in their statement as well by noting medterm downside risks for the economy. Recent data such as consumer and business confidence has confirmed this view. Furthermore, a big focus for the RBNZ’s aggressive policy (apart from high inflation of course) has been to try and calm down a very hot housing market, and even though the fall is small we have seen YY house prices cool starting to cool down. These developments on the growth side are not expected to stop the RBNZ’s hiking cycle just yet, but some market participants are expecting a more dovish tone reflecting these concerns and a push back in hike expectations in the months ahead. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Tactical positioning looksstretched, and trading at these levels it increases possibility of some mean reversion or position squaring which could trigger some upside in the NZD. Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Any catalyst that triggers some recovery in commodity markets (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China, higher inflation fears; lower growth concerns) should be supportive for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish RBNZ expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation) could trigger downside for the NZD. Any catalyst that triggers more downside in commodity markets (additional China restrictions, demand destruction fears, further growth concerns) could weigh on the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the RBNZ’s current outlook and stretched positioning, we would favour short-term upside catalysts over trying to chase the currency lower in the short-term.
by thunderpips
2
AUDUSD - I am bullish!AUDUSD - I am bullish I've been bullish on the Australian economy overall, it is less 'damaged' compared to EU & US - It isn't as strong as AUD even when you see data wise and as well as currency strength, it's Aussie ahead! I am more bullish AUD compared to other FX pairs including this it is a commodity FX pair and this you can research in your own time or seek out the various platforms I am part of and question further. Technically, we have been within a channel bullish momentum continues but take a look at this trendline down, we have hit it many times. Now we are testing it again, if we go above I expect this 0.70100 areas and perhaps LT 200EMA. However, for now any pull back give and as long as we stay above 0.68560 areas i'd be buying dips and excelling further. Next week main data front: FOMC 75 Not Investment Advice. TJ
by Trade_Journal
💵Australian Dollar/U.S.Dollar💵 Analyze!!The Australian Dollar is near the Resistance Line, and I expect to see the Bullish Marubozo candle that breaks the resistance line. And then the Australian Dollar goes up to Resistance Zones. Also. we can see the Regular Divergence (RD+) between Price and MACD Indicator. 🔅Australian Dollar/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( AUDUSD ) Daily Timeframe⏰ 🔴Resistance Zone🔴: 0.73$ until 0.725$ (First Target). 🔴Resistance Zone🔴: 0.76$ until 0.753$. 🟢Support Zone🟢:0.671$ until 0.664$. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
4
AUDCHF Emerging Death Cross can push it back to 0.6513.The AUDCHF pair is seeing a short-term rebound following the July 01 Low and is approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It has been trading below the latter since June 16 and the former since June 17. The emerging Death Cross formation (when the MA50 crosses below the MA200) can put a stop to this short-term recovery and push the price to a new Low just like the last 1D Death Cross did a year ago, on July 28 2021. A 1D candle close above the 1D MA50 invalidates the Death Cross and targets the Lower Highs trend-line. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
1
AUDUSD: Classic Bullish Setup 🇦🇺🇺🇸 Hey traders, 🟢AUDUSD is trading in a minor bullish trend. Reaching a new high, the price started a correctional movement within a bullish flag pattern from the beginning of the week. Yesterday, the price broke the resistance of the flag, now, we see its retest. I expect a bullish continuation to 0.695 ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
12
GBPAUD: Important Decision Ahead 🇬🇧🇦🇺 Hey traders, GBPAUD is approaching a solid rising trend line on a daily time frame. Depending on the reaction of the price to that, I see 2 potential scenarios: If the price breaks and closes below that, I will expect a bearish continuation to 1.731 level. If bulls violate a resistance line of a tiny rising wedge pattern and close above that, I will expect a bullish movement at least to 1.765 I believe that probabilities are on a bullish side. However, let's see what will happen! What do you expect? ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
7
EURAUD Sell signal confirmedThe EURAUD pair got a massive rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on July 01 and since last week, it hasn't even regained its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) suffering a strong sell-off. The long-term pattern is a Bearish Megaphone, technically such rejection should push the price to a new Lower Low. Based on a similar fractal last February, we can go as low as the 2.5 Fibonacci extension. We have a more moderate target on the diverging Lower Lows trend-line at just above 1.4000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
2
GBPAUD Neutral within a Rectangle since AprilThe GBPAUD has been trading within a very simple Rectangle pattern since early April, giving traders excellent sideways opportunities. At the moment the price is around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but with the MACD on a Bearish Cross (all of whom led to Lows), it is more likely to see a new selling leg towards the Support of the pattern. This time, there is the Higher Lows trend-line involved, that has initiated short-term rebounds twice already, so the most appropriate course of action would be to buy just above that trend-line on a tight SL, targeting the Resistance but be quick to reverse to a sell aimed at the Support if a 1D candle closes below the trend-line. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot