Aususd
Iron Ore AUDUSD Correlation DivergenceAUDUSD and iron ore have been quite tightly correlated over the years as it is one of Australia's number one exports. Now there is divergence which should be looked upon with high skepticism. Either the Aussie dollar will rise on the prospect of higher demand or the price of iron ore will retreat on the continue lack of demand if the supply side cannot remain limited.
Keep confidence on Aussie in Q1Lowe's dovish tone is surprised to the market as the announcement released yesterday keep optimistic to economy. He said "cutting rate is still on the table and the change of monetary policy will be balance", which is considered as the signal to cut rate next step.
On long term, we agree that Aussie will be bearish in 2019 coz the real estate is likely to to be worse in the latter half of this year. However, FED lowers its pace to raise rate and price of iron ore is climbing will support Aussie in Q1 and Q2.
Therefore, keep confidence on Aussie.
The target is 0.7185.
Turning point: 0.7115.
Above 0.7115, bullish , target price is 0.7095,then 0.7075.
Under 0.7115, bearish , target price is set at 0.7160, then 0.7185.
The US Midterm elections to drive the "Aussie"Trade Set up - In theory, tactically shorting the ‘Aussie’ around 0.7100, targeting the psychological level of 0.7000 level would make sense for technical trades, given the entry would be aligned to a strong underlying trend. That said, the big picture and set-up on the daily makes us cautious to take that trade, in fact, we would look to initiate a long entry if we see a daily close above 0.7160 level.
Why we like it - The ‘Aussie’ has been trading a bearish trend on a technical basis since the beginning of the year and this trend appears to be very mature. We can see bullish divergence between price and (slow) stochastic momentum, suggesting a potential reversal could be in play. A close through 0.7160 would go someway to confirming this.
The US Midterm elections next week could cause volatility in the market, and we see the risk to the USD skewed to the downside, which would support AUDUSD on its way higher. The Democrats appear to be ahead of Republicans to control the House and while this is likely in the price we could see FX speculators fad US exposures into this event risk. Large players might start closing profitable short AUDUSD positions ahead of the risk event, and this short covering fuels our bullish case for AUDUSD.
For this trade to play out we need to see a daily candle close above 0.71600 level where buyers might step it, and our potentially bullish stance heightened on a close through the 55-day moving average. Traders should approach this trade tactically and way for the market to provide an opportunity for a long entry above 0.71600. Given the CPI data due on Wednesday traders should consider keeping their positions to a minimum.
We have also explained the US Midterm election in this video
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AUD/USD, SHS is in formation on H4Hi guys !
AUDSUD realized a beautiful bull run last hours with the Friday's DXY dropped. The price hit 0.726 and was rejected. From this pick i drew a Fibonacci retracement . Currently, the 0.236 line was reached and the price found a resistance on the MA10 after a closing price below this one.
I'm seeing a Shoulder Head Shoulder there. So, i opened a short position from 0.72 to 0.706 - 0.70 as you can see on the chart .
Then we'll see for the next shoulder.
Thanks for your time guys !
AUD/USD looking for double bottom. back bellow 2016lowsAUD/USD I am looking for a completion of a Head and shoulders stared on aug/31. Enough selling pressure can blow thru the 2nd shoulder and end up down at key support levels formed on sep-10. The above checkered red line is previous lows from Dec/2016. This is now a key resistance level that must be broken.
I would only enter this trade with more confirmation of a reversal and indication it is sticking to a double bottom/h&s pattern. Stop loss will be set tight, looking for 50-75 pips intraday, stop loss set tight. Longer trade can amount to 150pips.
This is my personal opinion, this is not investment advice, invest at your own risk and good luck trading.
Completed 5:09pm LOS ANGELES.
AUSUSD Channel trading planFX:AUDUSD seems to be forming a bear flag on the large timeframe, there are some nice potential opportunities for a gartley completion which would also be a cypher C leg - instead of taking targets @ 38.2% for the bearish cypher I will probably hold longer term to see if we can break out of the channel/bear flag.