Volkswagen (VOW3): Potential Climb to €150Volkswagen AG is currently a highly interesting stock for us, especially given that it is a massive enterprise and the European market has seen significant sell-offs, in contrast to most American automakers which remain relatively high. However, it's important to note that automakers are typically quite volatile. If not for the high dividend yield, which currently stands at 15%—exceptionally high for a company of this size—it might not even be worth considering. Looking at the daily chart, we've observed a decline from 252€ to a low of 97.83€, marking the nadir of the overarching Wave II.
We placed our very first entry at the start of this cycle at 101€, which is now at 121€. We have yet to break out from the major trend channel. A new, smaller trend channel has formed, suggesting that an upward breakout could potentially lead us out of both channels, providing a short-term boost. This could bring us to the level of Wave (X), around 150€, concluding the Wave (1).
We successfully entered a new position on the 2-hour chart for Volkswagen, as we placed a limit order at the 50% retracement level, which was reached yesterday. This entry should give us a significant boost, aiming to challenge the trend channel line again and potentially reaching new local highs around 130€. There's also a dividend distribution coming up next month for Volkswagen, which might influence market behavior as investors could decide to take profits afterwards.
We are not trying to predict short-term movements; instead, we aim to position ourselves for the long term and hold our investments for extended periods. We have strategically placed our stop-loss below Wave ((ii)) to only get stopped out if the scenario is invalidated. However, we see theoretically huge potential upwards, with 150€ being just an initial target.
Automotive
NIO (NIO): Downward Journey and the Glimmer of Long-Term HopeNIO (NIO): NYSE:NIO
NIO has recently slipped below the $7 mark, signaling a possible continuation of its significant downward trajectory. After peaking at $66.99, NIO has been on a prolonged decline that shows no immediate signs of concluding. While the descent is expected to persist, it's critical that the price stays above the $1.19 threshold to maintain a bullish outlook for NIO's future, preventing a drastic plummet towards zero—a scenario that seems less likely given the limited downside left.
Within this framework, we're observing the development of Wave (C) emerging from Wave (B), structured as a five-wave decline aiming lower. Notably, Wave 3 touched the 161.8% extension at $8.84, succeeded by Wave 4. We're now bracing for Wave 5, which might approach the $2.13 support zone.
Setting a broad stop-loss might seem risky, yet the potential for an upward surge is compelling. If NIO is indeed navigating through an overarching Wave II, poised for a multi-year rebound, it could dramatically exceed its all-time high of $67, hinting at an increase well over 3000%. This optimistic projection aligns with a possible long-term bullish trend following the current decline.
Currently, it's too early to pinpoint exact entry points, given the substantial risk of further drops. Attempting to do so now would be akin to catching a falling knife without adequate support nearby. Patience and vigilant monitoring are crucial at this juncture to avoid premature entries. Once signs of market stabilization or a trend reversal become apparent, we can then identify strategic entry points to capitalize on NIO's potential long-term growth. This cautious approach aims to balance risk management with the prospect of significant returns, awaiting the market's eventual recovery and NIO's ascent.
Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3): On the Fast TrackPorsche (PAH3): XETR:PAH3
Our analysis of Porsche Automobil Holding focuses on the stock's price movement since the lows during the COVID-19 crisis at 28.48 EUR. Since then, Wave (1) in blue has expanded to 102 EUR, currently serving as a local high. Subsequently, a remarkably unusual and complex Wave (2) has been observed, which appears atypical at first glance. Upon closer examination, this phase is identified as a flat correction, which falls just above the 78% level, slightly insufficient for a regular flat. In Elliott Wave analysis, as well as in other analyses, it is sometimes necessary to stretch certain rules to reach a conclusion. Whether this is invalid or not is difficult to say at this point.
Currently, the stock suggests that Wave C in red has not yet been fully completed, as the extension of Wave (iii), as expected, took a corrective trend reversal at 41.48 EUR. If this is the case, we are currently witnessing the formation of Wave (iv), with the stock possibly falling one last time with Wave (v) before finally bidding farewell to the overarching Wave (2). The exact timing for this remains open and uncertain. However, as long as Wave 1 does not become invalid, a downward trend is expected for Porsche stock. Potential significant entry points for us could lie in a retest of the Wave (iii) area at 41.90 EUR or even lower. The exact coordinates are yet to be determined, but until then, we anticipate a declining price for Porsche stock.
One luxury carmarker is down 20%, a buying opportunity?Although founded in 1948, Porsche became a public company in late September 2022. Initially, the company started to float on the market with an opening price of €84. However, shares rose as high as €120.80 in the coming months. Yet despite these impressive gains since the IPO, shares of the company began to decline in May 2023, losing about 20% of their value through the summer.
In its recent financial report, Porsche AG Group revealed that its operating profit rose 10.7% YoY and sales revenue 14% YoY in the first six months of 2023. Meanwhile, cash and cash equivalents decreased by 52% (by €2.466 billion to €2.244 billion), and the deliveries went up by 14.7% YoY to 167,354 vehicles, with increases in all sales regions. Based on the report, the biggest demand was for models Macan and Cayenne, with 46,842 and 46,399 cars sold, respectively.
Going forward, the company cited supply chain challenges related to auto parts and their quality while noting that risks associated with gas shortages and the Russia-Ukraine conflict decreased. On top of that, the report states: “The explanations on the liquidity risks presented in the risk reporting section of the 2022 combined management report remain unchanged… The overall conclusion that, based on the information and assessments currently available, a development jeopardizing the group’s ability to continue as a going concern is sufficiently improbable in the fiscal year 2023, remains unchanged."
Based on these and other factors, we consider Porsche shares attractive below €100 (with ideal entry around €90 to €92) for the long term (talking about years). However, at the moment, we believe it would be proper to start only with incremental purchases and leave some capital aside for better opportunities.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Porsche with one of the highest profit margins per carPorsche, one of the automotive manufacturers with one of the highest profit margins per car in the world. After RACE, Ferrari, it's Porsche, it seems to me.
This stock has returned to its IPO price...
Undervalued in my opinion.
- Price-To-Earnings ratio (12.9x) is below the German market (16.1x)
- Earnings are forecast to grow 5.77% per year
- Earnings grew by 3.3% over the past year
- Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 33.9%
- No risks detected for P911
- Revenue is meaningful (€41B)
- Market cap is meaningful (€67B)
- The company’s earnings are high quality
- Debt level is low and not considered a risk
RIVIAN Potential triple bullish break-out ahead. Target $21.00.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) remained supported within the (green) Higher Lows Zone and on a significant Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI (in the form of a Channel Up). This is an early bullish sentiment signal but the real technical catalyst is right ahead.
That is the Triple Resistance zone consisting of the Inner Lower Highs trend-line as well as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a strong bullish combo signal if broken but in our personal opinion breaking and closing a 1D candle above the Inner Lower Highs will suffice. If successful, we will target $21.00 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which would make a Lower High at the top of the 4-month Bearish Megaphone (the 0.618 Fib was where the previous Lower High was formed).
The pattern since the July 27 top is a Bearish Megaphone and Tuesday's low isn't only a Higher Low on the Support Zone but also a technical Lower Low on the Megaphone's bottom. The previous Lower Low rebound formed a top on the 0.618 Fibonacci level. As a result our short-term bullish target is $21.00.
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The Cybertruck's first delivery is coming tomorrowTomorrow is a big day for Tesla, which plans to deliver its first Cybertruck vehicle to the customers. Introduced in 2019 by Elon Musk, the Cybertruck's journey from concept to reality has been eagerly watched by enthusiasts and skeptics alike. Initially slated for production in 2021, the Cybertruck will be the first pick-up truck vehicle added to Tesla’s lineup, which, until now, has been comprised only of sedans like Model S and Model X. Unlike anything else on the road, the Cybertruck's design is a radical departure from conventional automotive design. With its angular, box-like appearance and a stainless steel, bulletproof exterior, it looks like it is straight out of a sci-fi movie. Performance-wise, the Cybertruck is said to have a towing capacity rivaling the strongest diesel-powered trucks and the capability to accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in as little as 2.9 seconds. Building on these unique aspects of Tesla's Cybertruck, it is noteworthy how its eco-friendly electric powertrain sets it apart in a segment historically ruled by gas-guzzling counterparts. This shift towards sustainability could appeal to a new demographic of environmentally conscious consumers. Additionally, its advanced driver-assistance features, leveraging Tesla's pioneering Autopilot technology, offer convenience and safety not typically found in conventional pick-up trucks. The integration of these high-tech features, combined with its striking design, positions the Cybertruck not just as a utility vehicle but as a symbol of futuristic innovation in the automotive world.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
The Semiconductor Industry and Texas Instruments Long TXN
Company Overview: Texas Instruments (TXN) is a prominent and long-established semiconductor company headquartered in Dallas, Texas. Founded in 1930, TXN has evolved into a global leader in the semiconductor industry, with a diverse portfolio of analog and embedded processing products. Here are some key aspects of the company:
Product Range:
TXN specializes in analog and embedded processing semiconductors. Analog chips are designed to process real-world signals such as sound, light, temperature, and motion. They are used in a wide range of applications, from industrial and automotive systems to consumer electronics.
As tensions between Taiwan and China continue to rise, it is a good idea to consider the semiconductor business as an industry to invest in. The largest chip manufacturer in Taiwan by far is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC). Although TSMC focuses on digital semiconductors, the hype alone could lead many investors to add TXN to their portfolio simply because they don't understand the difference. TXN is also in a unique position, where in the event of a China-Taiwan conflict, it could certainly garner increased government funding.
We are currently watching three main price points.
1. $156.00
2. $167.00
3. $186.00
We are currently hitting the direct top of our Ichimoku cloud.
If we bounce here i anticipate All targets being hit within 2 months.
Especially if we see geopolitical events continue in their current manner.
AML: A Speculative Buy06 October 2023
The Professional Trader
The article and the data is for general information use only, not advice!
3 min read
Aston Martin: A Speculative Buy
Aston Martin is a luxury car manufacturer with a long and storied history. The company is known for its high-performance, handcrafted vehicles. However, Aston Martin has also had a history of financial struggles. Here are some of the reasons why I would rate Aston Martin shares as Speculative Buy:
Strong brand: Aston Martin is a well-known and respected brand in the luxury car industry. The company's cars are associated with luxury, performance, and style.
Growth opportunities: Aston Martin is well-positioned for growth in the luxury car market. The company is expanding its product range and entering new markets. For example, Aston Martin is planning to launch a new SUV in the coming years.
Valuation: Aston Martin shares are currently trading at a relatively low valuation. The company's price-to-earnings ratio is around 6, which is below the average for the luxury car sector.
However, there are some risks to consider before investing in Aston Martin shares. These include:
Financial performance: Aston Martin has a history of financial losses. The company has been struggling to generate positive cash flow and earnings.
Debt: Aston Martin has a significant amount of debt. This could make the company vulnerable to a downturn in the luxury car market.
Competition: Aston Martin faces competition from other well-known luxury car brands, such as Ferrari and Porsche.
Overall, I believe that Aston Martin shares are a good investment for investors who are willing to take on risk. The company has a strong brand, growth opportunities, and a relatively low valuation. However, investors should be aware of the financial risks associated with investing in Aston Martin shares.
Risk Disclaimer!
Stock Rating I would rate Aston Martin shares as a Speculative Buy for the mid- to long-term. The company has strong brand and growth opportunities for the near and long term future.
Trading with options as an alternative support to investment in Aston Martin sharesTrading with options can be a good alternative support to investment in Aston Martin shares. Options give investors the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell shares at a certain price on or before a certain date. This can be used to hedge against risk or to speculate on the future price of Aston Martin shares.For example, an investor who believes that Aston Martin shares are undervalued could buy call options. This would give the investor the right to buy shares at a certain price, even if the share price rises above that level.
This can be a good way to limit losses if the share price falls.Conversely, an investor who believes that Aston Martin shares are overvalued could buy put options. This would give the investor the right to sell shares at a certain price, even if the share price falls below that level. This can be a good way to profit if the share price falls.It is important to note that options are a risky investment and should only be used by experienced investors. Options can expire worthless, and investors can lose more money than they invest.If you are considering trading with options, it is important to do your research and understand the risks involved. You should also consult with a financial advisor to get personalized advice.
My opinion on trading with options as an alternative support to investment in Aston Martin sharesI believe that trading with options can be a good way to support an investment in Aston Martin shares. Options can be used to hedge against risk or to speculate on the future price of the shares.For example, an investor who is bullish on Aston Martin in the long term could buy shares and also buy call options. This would give the investor the opportunity to profit if the share price rises, but it would also limit their losses if the share price falls.Conversely, an investor who is bearish on Aston Martin in the short term could buy put options. This would give the investor the opportunity to profit if the share price falls, but they would lose their investment if the share price rises.It is important to note that options trading is complex and risky. Investors should carefully consider their investment goals and risk tolerance before trading with options.
Risk Warning
Trading stocks and options is a risky activity and can result in losses. You should only trade if you understand the risks involved and are comfortable with the potential for losses.
Risk Disclaimer!
General Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. It is important that you understand how Trading and Investing on the stock exchange works and that you consider whether you can afford the high risk of loss
Rating: Speculative Buy
Risk Disclaimer!
The article and the data is for general information use only, not advice!
Stellantis: Bearish ABCD with Multiple Monthly ConfirmationsStellantis: The Nvidia of Autos has formed a Bearish ABCD that is visible on the Monthly Timeframe with MACD Bearish Divergence and Bearish PPO Confirmation. If this plays out, we could see this go towards the C level, which aligns with the 0.786 retrace at €4.48
RIVIAN Confirmed sell signal after Higher Lows break-out.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) broke yesterday below the Higher Lows 1 trend-line, which was supporting since the June 27 Low. With a clear rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) the day before, this bearish break-out may create a Channel Down that could target the Higher Lows 2 trend-line. Until then, we have the critical 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support to consider. As a result, following also the completion of a 1D MACD Bearish Cross yesterday, we are bearish now, targeting $18.50 (1D MA200).
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AXL: 3 Falling Peaks Aiming to Initiate A Type 2 Return to $1.00AXL, after giving us a decent type 1 reaction of the 0.886 PCZ, has now begun to slow down and has developed a 3 Falling Peaks pattern with a 4th lower peak for good measure, and it now looks to make a type 2 return to the HOP level, which would take it just below $1.00 if it plays out.
BMW's Decision to Drop Heated Seats Microtransaction: A PositiveBMW's recent decision to abandon its heated seats microtransaction model comes amidst significant public and media criticism. The move reflects the company's adaptability and responsiveness to customer feedback. While the initial introduction of the subscription-based model for basic features was perceived negatively, BMW's swift response may restore consumer trust. This strategic shift towards focusing on software-based subscription services, like driving and parking assistance, aligns with current market trends and consumer preferences. Investors and traders should monitor BMW's upcoming moves in the subscription space, as it could influence the company's market positioning and stock performance in the near future.
A brutal movement in the price action of FORD
During my thorough analysis of FORD's 4-hour price action, an intriguing revelation emerged: a hidden bullish divergence, a distinct pattern that warrants attention. This intriguing phenomenon is characterized by the following indicator values:
- A price of $11.29 accompanied by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 38.96.
- Another price point at $11.99 coupled with an RSI reading of 18.84.
The RSI was more oversold at 11.99 $ then it was at 11.29 $ indicating that this was an overall uptrend and we now that if something is oversold, it should continue up and there you have your confirmation for your uptrend continuation making this a good place to enter.
Also please note that I would usually use the RSI on a 1H time frame to find these divergences, but here we have been able to detect them on a higher time frame such as the 4H which means that this is a more higher and accurate signal compared to the other regular one which makes these a more confident trade!
FORD watching for a reversal from deep oversold LONGFORD on the one hour chart has been trending down with dynamic support from
anchored VWAP lines. However the zero lag MACD is showing some bullish divergence
with upgoing MACD and signal lines in parallel from a cross under the histogram
which converted red to green. There was an associated spike in volume in the range of 3x
the mean. The last earnings report only a few weeks back had a significant beat on the top line.
I will place FORD on my watch list for next week. I likely will take a long trade on
Mondday 8/14 with planned targets on the chart based on VWAP standard deviation line levels.
I am especially interested to see if FORD will go on a bull run and fill the volume void
from 14.25 to 15. If profits are taken off 40%, 40% ane 20% this trade could realize 20%
in profit.
Motus broke above a Triple Bottom and is heading to R130.00 Triple Bottom has formed on Motus after the last few months.
And just recently, the price has broken above the neckline of the pattern,
This is bullish for an investor as there is extensive upside to come, by the looks of things.
7>21 bullish
Price<200MA
RSI>50
Target 1 will be to R130.00. It's quite optimistic, but you saw how quickly the stock fell in a short period. It needs to go back up and rebalance.
ABOUT THE COMPANY
Motus Holdings Limited is a South African company that operates in the automotive sector, dealing in vehicle retail, vehicle services, parts and accessories, car rental, and financial services.
Founding: Motus was established as a division of Imperial Holdings Limited in 1973.
Public Listing: The company was separately listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in November 2018 after a demerger from Imperial Holdings.
Global Presence: Motus operates in South Africa, the rest of Africa, the United Kingdom, Australia, and South East Asia.
Business Segments: The company operates through four main segments: Import and Distribution, Retail and Rental, Motor-Related Financial Services, and Aftermarket Parts.
Vehicle Brands: Motus represents a wide range of vehicle brands through its dealership network, including Hyundai, Kia, Renault, Mitsubishi, and many more.
Vehicle Types: The company deals in both new and pre-owned passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and heavy equipment.
Services: Motus also provides vehicle-related financial services and products, including vehicle finance, insurance, and warranty products.
Parts and Accessories: Through its Aftermarket Parts segment, Motus sells a wide range of vehicle parts and accessories.
Rental Services: Motus offers vehicle rental services through its car rental business, which operates under several brands including Europcar and Tempest.
Employees: As of 2021, Motus employs approximately 16,300 people across its various operations.
Tesla's net income is down 22.6% YoY, down 31.5% QoQYesterday, after the closing bell, Tesla announced its earnings for the first quarter of 2023. The company reported a net income of 2.539$ billion and total revenue of 23.329$ billion. Net income saw a double-digit decline on a yearly and quarterly basis, while revenue declined only on a quarterly basis. In 1Q23, Tesla produced 440 808 vehicles and delivered 422 875 of them. During the same period, the company rapidly grew its energy storage production capacity at a mega-factory in Lathrop and announced a new mega-factory in Shanghai. In addition to that, Tesla cut its vehicle prices multiple times, intending to attract more buyers and get a competitive edge against its rivals. That proved a good strategy, with Model Y becoming the best-selling vehicle of any kind in Europe during 1Q23. The report also states that energy deployments increased by 360% YoY, and solar deployments rose by 40% YoY. In regard to the future outlook, Tesla plans to grow production as quickly as possible. In line with that, it plans to launch the production of Cybertrack at Gigafactory in Texas and reach a total production of vehicles of 1.8 million by the end of the year.
Net income = 2.539$ billion (-22.6% YoY, -31.5% QoQ)
Total revenue = 23.329$ billion (+24% YoY, -4% QoQ)
Total production = 440 808 (+44.3% YoY, +0.2% QoQ)
Total deliveries = 422 875 (+36.4% YoY, +4.3% QoQ)
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
RIVN - A competitor for Tesla?Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock has recently hit a new 52-week low due to various factors, making it a highly volatile investment. The company's lower-than-expected production output in 2023, cash burn rate, and intensifying EV truck market competition have contributed to this decline. RIVN's Q1'23 deliveries beat estimates, but its 9.39K quarterly production remains unimpressive compared to the 50K annual guidance for FY2023. Furthermore, the company's cash burn rate is unsustainable, with a reliance on debt and capital raises until it achieves positive cash flow.
Increased competition in the EV truck market is also a concern, with Ford and General Motors reporting success in their respective segments. Rivian's R1T has garnered positive reviews, but its price is significantly higher than competitors' base models. The stock remains suitable for investors with higher risk tolerances and a long-term investing trajectory. Despite recent recovery, RIVN's uncertain outlook combined with the macroeconomic environment makes the stock very unattractive.
From a technical perspective, we may see a move to the upside that reaches the pink area marked on the chart between $17 and $18 but the higher probability move is a continuation to the downside, either from here or from the target area.
We will keep you updated on any changes we see on the chart. In the meantime, please trade with care and stay safe!
TARGET REACHED: Motus hit the expected price at R105.32 From the last update on 23 February, we saw Motus form a Reverse Cup.
The price broke below the brim level and the indicators were all negative.
21>7>200 - Bearish
RSI<50
The price hit the target of R105.32
The trends are all down and bearish, and there is no incentive to buy the low on my charts. I don't believe in BTD (Buy the Dip). I believe in Buy high sell higher. Sell short buy lower.
Simple.
Palladium setting a very big sell signal to $880Descending triangle has formed on the weekly chart for Palladium
Last week, was a breakout to the downside.
200 >21> 7 - Red background
RSI <50 lower highs
Bearish
Target $880
WHY WOULD Palladium go down?
I can't tell you with any certainties why it's coming down but I can think of a few potential factors like:
~ Lower demand for Palladium as an investor point of view
~ There is an increase in the supply of palladium - I assume with all of the automotive catalysts and with the higher confidence in electric vehicles (cough Tesla)
~ Interest rate changes with there talks about inflationary measures and interest rate drops, this can result in a drop in Palladium prices
~ Technological advancements reducing the need for palladium. For example, they may be using alternatives like Rhodium, Iron, PLatinum for catalysts in newer vehicles that contain less palladium.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) bullish scenario:The technical figure Channel Down can be found in the daily chart in the US company Tesla Inc. (TSLA). Tesla, Inc. is an American multinational automotive and clean energy company. Tesla designs and manufactures electric vehicles (electric cars and trucks), battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla is one of the world's most valuable companies and is, as of 2022, the world's most valuable automaker. The Channel Down broke through the resistance line on 24/01/2023. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 18 days towards 168.10 USD. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 108.76 USD if you decide to enter this position.
Tesla Inc. said Tuesday it plans to spend $3.6 billion to expand its Sparks, Nev., gigafactory where it currently makes batteries and electric-vehicle parts.
The announcement came a day before the EV maker reports crucial quarterly earnings, and after CEO Elon Musk completed his third day of testimony in a trial over shareholder losses following tweets he made in 2018 about taking Tesla private.
Tesla said the battery facility would have capacity to produce “enough batteries for 2 million light duty vehicles annually.” In early January, Tesla said it delivered about 1.31 million vehicles in 2022. Analysts expect Tesla to increase deliveries to about 1.92 million in 2023.
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