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Ford Motor Company AnalysisWhile the dividend yield of Ford Motor Company is currently 6.16%, the history of dividend stability is very poor. The stock prices in the graph are adjusted according to dividend returns to provide return that is all encompassing. This is the real rate of return for Ford Motor Company. Over the lifetime of the company, the annual return has averaged a rate of 9.4%. While this average seems reasonable, the extreme ranges mean that an investor could lose the largest majority of the investment at any given point in time and the recent dip has signalled fear for the company. Ford Motor Company is on the No-Go list for me.
NYSE:FShort
by GrantPeace
Sorry for not sharing earlier - SEE GREEN BAR for action candle Largest US Uranium and Vanadium mining stock Energy Fuels. UUUU Starts production of V2O5 (vanadium pentoxide) for high strength steel (infrastructure/rebar, military, aircraft engines, thin gauge steel automotive) for first month at 200-225K lb./ mo. Sorry no futures symbol for V, but UR1! is uranium. both are in tight global demand with 20% CAGR driving prices upward, as well UUUU producing more at low cost, aka margin power. Gap in demand to supply was late 2019-early 2020 and starting sooner for both. UEC OTC:BKUCF TSX:U AMEX:NLR OTC:WSTRF OTC:FCUUF OTC:CCCCF TSXV:VONE OTC:APAFF FWB:JT71
AMEX:UUUULong
by Pokethebear
Long Position in Daimler InitiatedOn Friday, I initiated a long position in Daimler at the close. Considered waiting for the stock to drop to around 67.18 but was not willing to risk the market getting away over the weekend. The decision to invest in Daimler came from a thorough review of their financial statements and ratios. DDAIF has been on a Price to sales decline over the last 4 years and has been hammered this year from trade concerns. Though trade concerns could cause this trade to go against me, I believe that the trade war headlines are over emphasized and merely just to written to grab readers and sell newspapers. Furthermore, a correction in the USD is looming; having rallied about 7-8% this year a reversal to a historically average exchange rate will be a major benefit to this trade. Support:67 Just broke 30 day moving average Just broke two month resistance Target: 77 Stop loss: down 3% Expected hold: end of year
DLong
by scotch321
VW is a good way to celebrate the European in youThe trendline is being followed closely for this American version of the European Automotiv Manufacturer stock. If it retraces just a little more it would be easier to assume the stock price would soar to the 1.618 fibonacci level. The only problem with that valuation is the industry of this successful company. In Warren Buffett's book about what he looks at when deciding whether a company is a good investment, he clearly identifies the high overhead of manufacturing automobiles. The machinery that it takes to make the cars changes every year, and the competition may be the fiercest of any industry. This adds a lot of cost to the companies that operate in this stressful industry. That being said, many of us are biased in favor of VW. The company and it's cars and vehicles are a part of our history. My family members work for this company. Buy what you love is a good strategy with this European stock. There is much upside and still some downside possibility. This is a cheap price though, assuming it could make it's way to 2X this price. Stops need to be in place in this marketplace, because nothing is certain. Except for death and taxes. My family has approved of the newer models and that is enough for me. Liking this trendline bounce but wanting the huge extension; and skeptical of the automotive industry stocks as anything but BUY and Hold.
VLong
by biggair
Short the auto lendersAuto loans have been getting more and more subprime as time goes on. Loans are getting longer and poor credit customers are paying as much as 7% interest on their car, sometimes paying over 100% than if they bought the car up front. These companies heavily rely on these loans to keep their quarters profitable. When will the fun end? When will their greed catch up with them? When will the ABSs that contain these loan begin to go bust? Please let me know your thoughts.
NYSE:ALLYShort
by UnknownUnicorn1848150
Ford (F) Uptrend, Short to Mid Term BullI am not licensed or certified by any individual or institution to give financial advice. I am not a professional Stock trader. Ford (Ticker: F) is in an Up Trend. Immediate area of resistance is the 100 Day Simple Moving Average sitting around $11.45. If it can blow past that it should reach my Resistance Trend Line around $11.80ish before coming back down to hit Up Trend Support, and repeat...hopefully. Ford gapped down on January 17th of this year and that opening is another resistance line Ford needs to break. I've drawn a green horizontal line to show that price. I have no projections or guesses on how long Ford will keep this trend, or if it will stay on course to trend all the way to the gap line, but I've drawn my trending Resistance and Support lines out to meet the gap to track the movement.
NYSE:FShort
by AROD01
General Motors, GM, Short Term Bear, RetracementI am not licensed or certified by any individual or institution to give financial advice. I am not a professional Stock trader. I just published an idea regarding General Motors which covers a slightly different angle of the same idea I'll publish here. I won't go into as much detail with this one. This one is in line format and the other one is in candlestick format to show two different perspectives. I have this in line to show a couple Triple Tops which are a little difficult for me to identify in candlesticks. I see a Head and Shoulder pattern which I have marked with orange arrows; and the Triple Tops I see are marked with red arrows. I didn't want to put too much clutter on here but you can also drawn a down trending line from October 24, 2017 to November 2017 (the 20th, 21st, and 28th are the tops for that month) to January 2018 (the first Triple Top marked with red arrows) to this month (the second Triple Top marked with red arrows). If you need help seeing it let me know and I can publish another chart with just that. For more of a detailed description see my previous post from this same day about GM. Also, to alleviate some confusion I marked the 200 Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) more clearly in this post. So, to recap, a Head and Shoulder, a Down Trend forming with lower highs since last October, two different Triple Tops, and multiple EMAs forming resistance (covered briefly in my other post, which if I do it right the link will be below; but it's my first time trying that so let me know if it works or not). In my amateur opinion, that is a lot of Bearish signals.
NYSE:GMShort
by AROD01
GM Short Term BearI am not licensed or certified by any individual or institution to give financial advice. I am not a professional Stock trader. I recently published an idea stating I was bullish on General Motors because I saw a rolling pattern. If, after earnings, it continued up I would buy a bullish play. It did, kind of, and I bought a Call option on Friday as I saw the stock price rising. However, as I continued watching GM it was not able to maintain those highs and instead fell on higher volume than the previous day. This was a bearish signal so I sold my Call a couple hours after I had purchased it and took a loss. After looking at General Motors again and realizing the S&P 500 was also unable to maintain a high I purchased a Put option in GM. I have this chart set to candlesticks so you can see the falling price and inability to maintain highs over the past couple days; however, I will also publish a follow up to this in line format because I think it will be easier to see the bearish patterns. I have marked one of the bearish patterns I see, and that is the Head and Shoulder pattern. Another reason I think GM has gone bearish, at least short term, is due to almost all the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) being above the closing price; and on top of that (no pun intended) they may also be acting as resistance. The 200 Day EMA is sitting around $40.00ish (I have the EMA line itself orange, and the horizontal support line where it may hit is purple). We'll see if that is enough to catch it or not. I still have the lines drawn showing what I thought was a rolling resistance and support because they still are good lines (in my opinion) and GM may eventually bounce back and forth between them again; only time will tell. There was a Gap back in September 22-25, 2017 and the Stock used that a support on February 05, 2018. More Bearish signals, to me, are the lower highs from October of 2017 to current; as well as multiple Triple Tops, but I think those are easier to see in line rather than candlestick. The Market as a whole seems to be slightly erratic at the moment so if this doesn't pan out it may be best to just take a step back and until something more definite comes along.
NYSE:GMShort
by AROD01
General Motors Short Term Bull, Roll, ConsolidationI am not licensed or certified by any individual or institution to give financial advice. I am not a professional stock trader. I believe General Motors is in a rolling/consolidation pattern, at least for the short term. I have two possible support lines drawn. The bottom support line is drawn off the Gap from September 25, 2017 (it's possible to draw a third support line even lower at the beginning of the Gap from September 22, 2017) and the higher support line is drawn off resistance wicks from September 2017 and near the low of December 14, 2017. My Resistance Line at $45.07 is drawn off a lot more points. Throughout October 2017 you can see it acting as old Support, and then in November 2017 it becomes Resistance from the 20th through the 29th, and most recently it was Resistance on January 16, 2018. The orange drawn lines are possibilities of what I think could happen. GM may drop a few more cents and hit the $40.72 line and bounce up, or it could drop to the lower Support of $40.00ish and bounce up. Of course, it could just drop straight through both; but I think it will get a helping hand in rising when the major Indexes reach their 50 Day Moving Average and bounce up after the current retracement is comlete. If, after Earnings is released in a couple days, General Motors hits either of my drawn support lines and begins to rise I will consider entering a Bullish position (either Stock, or Call Option, and maybe paper trade a Bull Put spread for practice).
NYSE:GMShort
by AROD01
Arconic BreakoutArconic Inc. (ARNC) engineers, manufactures, and sells lightweight metals of aluminum, titanium, and nickel worldwide. It operates through three segments: Global Rolled Products, Engineered Products and Solutions, and Transportation and Construction Solutions. The company is set to benefit from the strong global economy which will increase demand for its lightweight metals. Arconic is a leading provider of Aluminum to the aerospace and automotive industry which are both experiencing strong demand. The stock recently broke out to all time highs after a prolonged period of consolidation. Watch for the trend to continue higher, but sell if the stock falls back below its recent breakout.
ALong
by gthom9
Ford Continuing Bullish, Stair Stepping and Rolling UpI am not certified or licensed by any individual or institution to give financial advice. I do not consider myself a professional stock trader, and most people would agree with me. I currently have shares in Ford for a long term hold. I just purchased two call options (March 16, 2018 expiration at Strike 13; Options Ask Price $.50, Stock Price was $13.26) in Ford on Friday, January 12, 2018. What I see is Ford making a Stair Step Pattern (with a bit of rolling thrown in) in forty cent ($.40) increments. From October through November 2017 it rolled between $12.00 and $12.40; when it broke that pattern it rolled between $12.40 and $12.80 from the end of November 2017 to the beginning of January 2018; it broke that pattern on January 04, 2018 and we come to the present where it is settled just above $13.20. If it continues with this consistency I believe its next stop will be the $13.60ish area. I have drawn that out in an attempt to give a visual aid; the explanation will be from bottom to top. The bottom two horizontal lines and bottom double vertical arrow (orange) display the first stair step and roll; the second double vertical arrow (green) in between the second and third horizontal line show the next step up; the third arrow (red) between the next lines continues the trend; and the top arrow (blue) displays my prediction of what I think Ford Stock will do. So, a brief recap of that paragraph: $12.00-$12.40, $12.40-$12.80, $12.80-$13.20 (current) and $13.20-$13.60 (predicted). Will Ford go straight to the $13.60 area or will it roll a time or two, as it has been doing between the steps? I don't know. I have taken both possibilities into consideration and have added them to the visual display in the forms of two drawn lines. The rolling, "W" shaped arrow (black) displays a possibility of a roll before continuing up; and the short, straight arrow (purple) displays a possibility of a straight shot. Of course, the third possibility that always exists is that Ford will just fall. I don't think so, but it is a possibility so I think it needs to be mentioned. Here are reasons for considering what I believe to be the most likely two scenarios. First, the roll; Ford may continue to roll between $12.80 and $13.20 (or any area in between) just because that is what it has been doing for the past couple of times before continuing up to the next level. That is the most consistent, reliable, and repeatable pattern and possibility. The second possibility is Ford skipping the roll and going straight to the next level. This is a possibility because of a number of reasons. First, it closed above $13.20 on the last trading day (Friday, January 12, 2018); but more specifically it closed above $13.22. $13.22 is significant to me because that number/price formed a Tweezer Top Pattern on back to back trading days (it wouldn't really be a Tweezer Pattern if it didn't, right?) of Friday, January 05 and Monday, January 08, 2018. By closing above the Tweezer Tops I think Ford is signaling it's ready to move on. Second, after the Tweezer Ford formed a not so textbook Rising Three Pattern indicating a continuing bullish move. Third, it closed above the Tweezer Tops and Rising Three on a volume of nearly 57 Million which is double the volume of it's previous trading day. You can decide for yourself which short term pattern Ford will follow; but regardless of what it does short term, I think it is safe to say it is continuing a bullish trend for the mid to long term. I wrote an analysis of that previously which you can view so I won't go into detail here. Ford will release 2017 Fourth Quarter Earnings after the Market closes on Wednesday, January 24, 2018. What is, or is not, said may or may not impact the Stock. Ford is a dividend paying Stock if you are considering a low cost Stock to invest in. It has not yet released it's First Quarter 2018 dividend information but if you want in you'll need to be quick as I expect it within the next few days.
NYSE:FLong
by AROD01
Ford, Mid to Long Term Bullish with Elliot WaveI just learned about Elliot Wave so I decided to try and apply it to Ford. See my immediate preceding two publications for a more in depth analysis of Ford. The very top resistance line I drew (the number 5 spot at the top of the wave) is based off a resistance from about a year ago--December 09, 2016 and January 04-05, 2017. I plan to wait for a bounce off the Number 4 spot ($12.40) before entering a new bullish position. Breaking through the Number 3 spot ($12.75/$12.80ish) will be confirmation to me of a continuing Bullish trend. I am not a professional. I am not certified or licensed by any individual or institution to give financial advice. I currently have shares of Ford for a long term hold investment.
NYSE:FLong
by AROD01
3
Ford Long Term BullI am not a professional. I am not certified, licensed, or employed by any person or institution to give financial advice. I currently have shares of Ford I plan to hold for the long term and am considering purchasing a long term Call Option in Ford. I am going with Ford for the long term. If you want a short term analysis of Ford, look at the post I published right before this one. The chart you hopefully see is a long term line chart set on weekly. I realize there are a lot of lines and I apologize if that is confusing, but I ask you bear with me....or in this case bull with me *duck and cover* :) If you look at the vertical orange lines, I have attempted to space them in what I see as a biennial pattern. Let me know what you think, but to me it looks as if Ford trends for a couple years and then consolidates before trending again. Those trends are both bearish and bullish, but I think we have just entered either the bullish trend or the consolidtion after a bearish trend. I think Ford hit a low point back in July/August of 2017 and has been climbing ever since. I think it will do one of two things depending on which phase it is in. If it is in the consolidation phase it may go sideways or up a little bit more before retracing back to the area of July/August 2017 in the $10ish-$10.50ish area and then come back up. Right now I'm waiting for it to break the resistance of $12.80 from back in February 2012 (also, if you read my short term post about Ford you'll see I already have a $12.75 resistance line drawn for short term consolidation) and the $12.60ish resistance it seems to keep hitting from February of this year (which was also used as support back in February and March of 2013) to see if it will continue up or not. If it continues up, with help of our current Bull Market, I think the call can be made that Ford is in the up-trend phase. My guess for resistance for the up-trend is $16.00 (green line) or $17.25ish (blue line). If you really want to be an optimist you could hope for it to reach the $30.00 mark from back in 2000; and though I'm not ruling that out completely, I'm not counting on it. The red line I've drawn at $18.40ish is my highly optimistic outlook, but the $16/$17 lines I've mentioned are more realistic to me. $14.00 also seems to be bit of a resistance buffer as seen in April 2010, January 2013, July 2016; and as support in October 2014 and September 2015.
NYSE:FLong
by AROD01
27
Ford Consolidation, Long Term Bull I am calling a short term retracement and long term Bull for Ford. I think it is currently consolidating, or building up pressure, to break out of a roll and continue it's up-trend. From the beginning of October 2017 through the end of November 2017 it consolidated/rolled between a $12.00 support and a $12.40 resistance. That is after dropping to a $10.47 low in August 2017, and then breaking into an up-trend. Two dollars ($2.00) in three months. Now, I realize that may be slow for a lot of you and a lot of Stocks (I'm not arguing that point) but that is where my long-term bullish outlook comes into play. It went $2.00 in three months and began a forty cent ($.40) consolidation/roll. It broke out of that on high volume on November 29, 2017 (the big green candlestick--a thirty cent day which is quite a move for Ford considering most of it's single day moves seem to be five to ten cents ) and within three days reached $12.75 (the wick on December 04, 2017 actually had a high of $12.81). Since then it has dropped to $12.40 (old resistance becoming new support) and bounced back to $12.75. The past couple of days have closed down forming a couple of red/bearish candles. That is why short term I am calling a consolidation and retracement down to $12.40. If it were a regular trading week I would call 3-5 trading days (that's how long it took to retrace from $12.40 down to $12.00 during October and November 2017) to reach $12.40; but I'm not expecting too much high volume this week due to Christmas, and also New Years approaching. Sure, the Market will still be open; but like any holiday there will be a lot of people taking time off. After it hits $12.40 I think it will bounce back to at least $12.75. On Oct 10 and Nov 01-03 Ford hit $12.40 resistance; and multiple times throughout both months it hit $12.00 support before breaking above resistance on Nov 29 as previously mentioned. After it breaks $12.75 I think it will continue it's up-trend before once again consolidating somewhere. Should you do a bearish play? I don't think so, unless you are good at spreads or some other really short term (weekly/daily) strategy. If it repeats the Oct-Nov trend it will hit support within a couple days. I'm not even sure of a short term bull play. I think a mid (1-5 months) to long term (5 months + ) bull play is the best shot. I am an amateur Stock and Options trader. I am not licensed, certified, or employed by anyone or any institution to give financial advice. I have shares of Ford I am planning on keeping for long term to continue earning dividends. I am considering a mid to long term Call Option, but probably won't buy it until and unless Ford breaks $12.75 and continues up. Remember, Ford moved $2.00 in three months and with the Bull Market we are in it could repeat that. For long term Option play consider historic resistance has been around $16-$17 (give or take 50 cents). Examples of that on a long term line chart are May 2002, January 2004, July-October 2013, July 2014, and a 15 year high (2002 to present) of $18.65 in January 2011. $10.00/$9.00ish seems to be support since 2009 on a line chart and Ford came close to hitting that in August 2017; but all that is another chart for another time.
NYSE:F
by AROD01
1
Long Allison TransmissionAllison Transmission (ALSN) is one of the worlds largest transmission manufacturers. The company has recently developed a new transmission model that helps to improve fuel economy. The company is set to release its 3Q earnings Monday, Oct. 30 with a conference call on Tuesday, Oct. 31. US car production is coming off of its low back in 2009 and has increased to 3.02 million units in August from 2.62 million units in July. Still 3 million units below average but we are seeing an increase. Low interest rates are still making auto loans affordable. However, New passenger car registrations are down to 501.98 thousand from 502.59. This could mean that fewer are actually purchasing cars but the auto industry is expecting higher demand. The market is trending strong with good breadth, 88 percent of stocks are making new highs. The outlook for the auto industry looks good. If ALSN releases better than expected earnings, expect to see a move up. The stock currently trades at 36.94, down 8% from its 52-week high. We saw a recent bounce off of the $36 support line. RSI is in a bearish range and the current move is supported by average volume. I'm long in anticipation of a good earnings release and a good Q4 period.
NYSE:ALSNLong
by Brandon50115
GM's post hurricaine rally could be coming to a haultWhen cars and homes were destroyed, those industries got a boost. LPX makes wood-panel sidings for homes and saw a 15% increase. Auto makers like GM saw a large increase as well this past month. Is it coming to an end for GM? Can it go higher? Is a good entry in sight? I believe so. The trend angle increased, representing strength, and the price action in terms of ATR increased as well through the uptrend. However, the break through the 41.20 level on news of it's September increase was seen on lower volume than the previous day and ultimately closed below that level. For me, I take this as a good time to sit on the sidelines and wait to see what happens. If it falls, then I will look for a good entry. Fundamentally, I see this rising over the next quarter.
NYSE:GM
by Brandon50115